The Numbers Are Reassuring... But Are The Reserves Sufficient To Protect The Dinar?… The Shocking Truth: The Danger Lies Not In The Market, But In The State Itself
Baghdad Today – Baghdad While the parallel market is testing the limits of monetary policy, the Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih , offered explicit reassurance: the official exchange rate will remain at 1,320 dinars, and the recent fluctuations are merely "short-term noise." But behind this apparent calm lies a larger question concerning the state's ability to bolster its resources without jeopardizing monetary stability.
Economist Ahmed Abdel Rabbo interprets Saleh’s statements as part of a broader strategy; in his view, price stability is not merely a financial option but a political signal that the incoming government will not approach adjusting the exchange rate in its first year, in recognition of the magnitude of the inflationary impact that any step in this direction could have.
Abdel Rabbo tells Baghdad Today that the real challenge lies not in the exchange rate but in the revenue structure itself. He explains that Iraq loses billions of dollars annually through weak customs procedures, a paper-based tax system, and massive import flows that keep the demand for dollars high.
In his view, increasing revenue requires less of a change in the exchange rate and more of a complete customs reform, a shift to electronic tax collection, and linking tax databases to foreign trade, banks, and border crossings.
What Abdel Rabbo points out aligns with part of Mazhar Saleh's vision: strong foreign reserves provide cover for the official exchange rate, and inflation, which has fallen to 2.5%, reflects the success of monetary policy in stabilizing prices. However, without addressing the loopholes in tax collection, evasion, and invoice manipulation, the parallel market will remain capable of generating speculative waves whenever a rumor or incomplete information emerges.
Abdel Rabbo also believes that part of the pressure on the dollar is a result of an economic structure that relies on consumer imports, which makes supporting agriculture, food industries, building materials and medicines not only a development option, but also an indirect monetary policy that reduces the need for the dollar and improves the balance of payments.
In light of this scenario, the equation for stability seems clear: protecting the dinar is not achieved by changing the price, but by reforming the economy from the bottom up.
What Saleh said about the stability of the reserves provides the necessary cover, but what Abd Rabbo is proposing represents the long road that cannot be avoided if the state wants a stable exchange rate that is not shaken by "temporary noise". Source: Baghdad Today + Agencies https://baghdadtoday.news/288554-.html
Introduction: Why Early 2026 Is Becoming the Focus
According to Mnt Goat, the growing body of economic, infrastructure, and revenue-based evidence strongly suggests that early 2026 is the most realistic window for Iraq to normalize the Iraqi dinar and reinstate it on the global FOREX market.
Rather than relying on speculation or isolated news, this analysis focuses on hard fundamentals—projects already implemented, revenues already being generated, and national systems that are finally coming together after years of rebuilding.
The Big Picture: Everything Is Connected
Mnt Goat emphasizes a critical truth often overlooked:
Iraq’s monetary reform is not a single event—it is the result of interconnected systems working together over time.
Only when these systems mature together can the dinar safely return to international markets.
Major Revenue-Driving Projects Now in Motion
1. The Development Road Project
This massive trade corridor is designed to:
Connect Asia to Europe through Iraq
Generate long-term transit, logistics, and trade revenues
Position Iraq as a regional commercial hub
This project is no longer theoretical—it is actively being implemented
.
2. The Port of Faw
The Grand Faw Port is one of Iraq’s most strategic assets.
Enables large-scale shipping access
Supports trade diversification beyond oil
Creates sustainable port and customs revenues
Once fully operational, it will significantly increase non-oil income for the federal government.
3. Reopening of the Ceyhan (Cyan) Oil Pipeline
The reopening of the Iraq–Turkey oil pipeline is a potential game-changer.
Nearly doubles oil export capacity
Brings immediate, measurable revenue growth
Strengthens Iraq’s fiscal position
Oil revenues remain foundational to Iraq’s economy, and this pipeline restores a major artery.
4. Customs and Tariff Revenues
Often underestimated, customs enforcement is now becoming effective.
Tariff collection is improving
Border control is strengthening
Smuggling losses are being reduced
These revenues directly support budget stability and currency strength.
Why Timing Matters: A Slow but Necessary Process
Mnt Goat makes it clear:
“This is not an overnight transformation.”
Most of these projects:
Began within the last four years
Require time to reach full revenue capacity
Are currently in implementation or early production phases
This slow maturation is not a weakness—it is the foundation needed to support a normalized currency.
Natural Resources: The Next Revenue Wave
Beyond infrastructure and oil, Iraq possesses vast natural resources
that are now being prepared for global markets.
Exploration and development underway
Marketing phases approaching
Expected to generate massive future revenues
Mnt Goat notes these resources are “very soon” to be monetized, further strengthening Iraq’s economic position.
The Role of the Gatekeepers: CBI and Iraqi Authorities
Ultimately, the decision to reinstate the dinar belongs to:
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)
Iraq’s financial and political “gatekeepers”
Mnt Goat stresses that these authorities are:
Fully aware of the progress
Monitoring revenue stability
Coordinating timing carefully
“They are now all concurring the time is ripe.”
Featured Snippets
When will the Iraqi dinar return to FOREX? Mnt Goat believes growing economic evidence points to early 2026 as the most realistic timeframe for the Iraqi dinar to normalize and return to FOREX trading.
What supports Iraqi dinar normalization? Key drivers include the Development Road Project, the Port of Faw, increased oil exports, customs tariffs, and expanding natural resource revenues.
Why has Iraq delayed currency normalization? Major national projects require time to reach full revenue capacity, ensuring the dinar is supported by sustainable income streams.
Q&A Section
Q: Is Iraq already generating revenue from these projects?
A: Yes. Some projects are already producing real revenues, with much larger potential ahead.
Q: Why not reinstate the dinar sooner?
A: Premature reinstatement without full revenue backing could destabilize the currency.
Q: Who decides when the dinar returns to FOREX?
A: The Central Bank of Iraq and Iraq’s financial leadership make the final decision.
Key Takeaway from Mnt Goat
The message is clear and grounded in fundamentals:
Iraq is no longer planning—it is executing
Revenues are growing, not theoretical
Systems are aligning
Timing is becoming clearer
Early 2026 is not hype—it is the result of measured economic progress.
There is much more evidence than not that everything is pointing to early 2026 for them to normalize the dinar and place it back on FOREX to trade. ...the Development Road Project, the port of Faw or the reopening of the Cyan oil pipeline that can almost double the oil revenues. Oh…did I mention the Customs and Tariff revenues?
Some of these projects and more at the implementation phases and some are generating real revenues already with potential for more, massive amounts...Most of these projects are recent within the last four years and take time to come to full capacity for revenue generation for the federal government... It is a slow process
So, you see it all works together and are interconnected, and I have not even begun to mention the natural resources available that is also in the making to be marketed soon, very soon! I will leave it to the “gatekeepers” of Iraq and the CBI to decide when to reinstate the dinar based on all these new developments. They are now all concurring the time is ripe now.
The Economic Risk Map That The World Has Drawn Up For Iraq During The Year 2025
Economy 22-12-2025, | 602 Deep Structural Imbalances Baghdad Today – Baghdad In the assessments of international institutions regarding Iraq's situation in 2025, it is not viewed as an economy heading towards a single, specific crisis, but rather as a system living on a delicate balance: a state that finances itself from a single resource, consumes most of its revenue on current expenditures, postpones the development of a productive economy, and is then surprised to find that shocks do not come in isolation, but rather as simultaneous waves linked to oil prices, production decisions, water scarcity, youth employment, and investor confidence.
This is why reports repeatedly describe the situation as one of deep structural imbalances that cannot be remedied by temporary abundance or masked by circumstantial improvements.
Dangerous Dependence On Oil
The most consistent observation in the 2025 reports is that oil continues to dictate the pace of a nation's economy before it dictates the pace of the market. When a country's revenues are so tied to a highly volatile market, any change in prices or production levels can shift it from a position of substantial spending to one of strain in a short period. This dependence not only signifies financial vulnerability but also means that policy itself becomes a recurring crisis management exercise, adapting to the ever-changing oil price landscape.
Public Finances Under Constant Pressure
Reports link the fragility of oil revenues to the structure of public spending. The issue is not simply whether or not there is a deficit, but rather the composition of the budget: salaries, pensions, subsidies, and transfers, compared to productive investment that is insufficient to transform the economy. In this context, there is a recurring warning about the inflation of current spending at the expense of development spending, which makes the state less resilient in the event of an oil shock or an emergency.
An Undiversified Economy And A Sluggish Private Sector
Conversely, reports indicate that the non-oil sector is operating below its potential, and that years of relative stability have not automatically translated into rapid and sustainable growth. They add that the private sector remains constrained by chronic factors: bureaucracy, limited access to finance, weak competition, unstable policies, and state dominance over broad economic sectors. Without a clear regulatory environment and a vibrant financial market, private investment remains too weak to become a major engine of job creation.
Finance And Banking: A Hurdle That Delays Investment
One of the most frequent findings in the reports is that the financial system is not playing its full role in driving the economy. When credit to the private sector is limited, and when confidence in the financial system remains insufficient, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) become trapped between operating costs and difficulty accessing finance, which weakens expansion and innovation and reduces opportunities for creating stable jobs.
A Dysfunctional Labor Market And High Youth Unemployment
From a labor market perspective, reports highlight the expansion of the informal economy as a large but precarious employment sector. Informal jobs mean less protection, lower productivity, a limited tax base, and ultimately, a state that spends more to manage the consequences of unemployment rather than investing in preventing it. While public sector opportunities remain the most attractive, the state's capacity to absorb them is diminishing as wages inflate, leaving the youth gap open to increasingly complex social and economic possibilities.
Corruption And Governance: A Hidden Cost That Consumes The State
International reports treat corruption and governance as economic indicators, not merely ethical considerations. Corruption increases project costs, weakens competition, deters investment, and diverts public spending toward lower output at a higher cost. Simultaneously, poor governance undermines the ability of institutions to enforce fair and transparent rules, which directly impacts market confidence and capital willingness to invest.
Increased External Risks
Reports do not view Iraq as an isolated economy, but rather as a country that is quickly exposed to global shocks due to its dependence on oil. A slowdown in the global economy, geopolitical and trade instability, or changes in demand all translate into an immediate impact on revenues. And when domestic obligations are fixed and substantial, the margin for maneuver in the face of any revenue decline becomes very limited.
Water And Climate: The Danger That Became Economic
By 2025, the water issue had shifted from the realm of environmental concerns to that of economic ones. Water scarcity, agricultural decline, and internal migration are placing long-term pressure on cities, services, and the labor market, presenting the state with a costly dilemma: either significant investments in adaptation and resource management, or accumulating social and economic costs year after year. With the increasing complexity of the water situation in upstream countries, water has become a source of both external and internal pressure simultaneously.
2025 Summary: Improvement Is Reversible If Reforms Remain Delayed
The recurring theme in international reports is that improved revenues alone do not build resilience. If a country remains dependent on oil, consumes most of its resources on current expenditures, leaves the private sector without adequate funding and a clear competitive environment, and faces water scarcity as a recurring shock, then any oil, political, or security shock will push the economy back into a state of tension.
According to economist Ziad al-Hashemi , international reports during 2025 do not speak of a temporary crisis, but rather of structural risks in the Iraqi economic model, and that any improvement in revenues will remain fragile and susceptible to reversal with the first oil, political or security shock unless deep economic reforms are implemented.
As December 2025 comes to a close, Frank26’s CC Summary Video delivers one of the most important updates yet on the Iraqi dinar, Iraq’s political reforms, and regional monetary changes. This commentary blends political reality, monetary policy, and spiritual grounding, offering a broader perspective on why the coming days and weeks may prove critical for Iraq’s financial future.
Frank frames the discussion with faith, patience, and preparation—reminding viewers that monetary reform is never just about numbers, but timing, law, and stability.
Political Developments in Iraq: Momentum Is Building
New Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Elected
On December 29, 2025, Iraq’s parliament elected Habibit Halabusi as the new Speaker of the House. Despite name confusion with a former official, this marks a significant step forward
While dissatisfied with the outcome, their involvement signals cooperation
Parliamentary functionality is returning faster than expected
Why This Matters
A functioning parliament is essential for passing rate-related legislation, including the long-awaited HCL (High Council Law)—a cornerstone of Iraq’s economic and monetary reform.
The HCL Law: The Missing Piece of Monetary Reform
Frank emphasizes that most stalled Iraqi laws are exchange-rate dependent.
The HCL is required for:
Budget execution
Oil revenue sharing
Currency reform implementation
“The only way they can move forward is with a new rate—most of these laws are rate related.”
Prime Minister Sudani is reportedly pressing political blocs to either:
Follow the constitution, or
Face political consequences
This pressure may finally break the legislative deadlock.
Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Reassessment: December 31, 2025
What Is Happening with the IQD?
Current rate: 1310 IQD/USD
Official reassessment date: December 31, 2025
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) calls it a “review,” not a guaranteed change
Frank argues that the word “reassessment” itself implies potential adjustment, especially given the political and international pressure surrounding Iraq.
Key Warning from Frank26
If Iraq fails to adjust the exchange rate:
US support could diminish
Iranian influence may increase
Economic and monetary reforms could stall completely
Regional Currency Reform: Iraq Is Not Alone
Syria
Launching a new national currency
90-day adaptation window announced
Signals regional financial restructuring
Iran
Facing internal protests and civil unrest
Economic pressure weakening the regime
Frank views this as positive for regional monetary reform
Japan’s Role
Heavy Japanese investment in Iraqi infrastructure
Signals international confidence in Iraq’s future
Banking & Investor Insights: What Viewers Are Experiencing
Frank shares a real-world account from a viewer:
Contacted by a Chase Bank wealth manager
Banker was already aware of large currency holdings
Confirms banks are actively monitoring dinar exposure
Preparation Tips Discussed
Document all currency holdings
Understand FDIC insurance limits
$250,000 standard
Up to $3 million with certain programs
Learn banking products and post-exchange strategies
Frank also confirms:
Continued Iraqi dinar sales
Expansion into 12–15 additional currencies
Expectation that retail investors will eventually be replaced by institutional “sharks and whales”
Timeline of Key Events
Date
Event
Dec 29, 2025
Iraqi parliament elects Habibit Halabusi as Speaker
Dec 31, 2025
IQD exchange rate reassessment date
Early Jan 2026
Deputy speaker votes and HCL advancement
Within 90 days
Syria’s new currency adaptation period
Early Jan 2026
Expected arrival of US representatives in Iraq
Key Definitions & Clarifications
Term
Explanation
HCL (High Council Law)
Core law tied to budget and monetary reform
Exchange Rate Reassessment
Official review of the IQD/USD rate
FDIC Insurance
US bank protection up to $250,000 per account
Sharks & Whales
Large institutional currency investors
Featured Snippets
What is the Iraqi dinar reassessment? The Iraqi dinar reassessment is an official Central Bank of Iraq review of the IQD/USD exchange rate, currently set at 1310, scheduled for December 31, 2025.
Why is the HCL law important for Iraq? The HCL law enables Iraq’s budget execution, oil revenue sharing, and exchange rate implementation, making it essential for economic reform.
Is Iraq expected to change its exchange rate? While the CBI denies an imminent change, political pressure, stalled laws, and international involvement suggest a rate adjustment remains possible.
Q&A Section
Q: Did Iraq officially change the exchange rate?
A: No official change has been announced, but a reassessment is scheduled and widely watched.
Q: Why are banks contacting dinar holders?
A: Banks are preparing for potential liquidity events and wealth management needs.
Q: Is this only about Iraq?
A: No. Syria, Iran, and regional partners are also undergoing currency and economic transitions.
Final Thoughts
Frank26’s December 2025 CC Summary highlights a rare alignment of politics, law, and international pressure. While nothing is guaranteed, the signs point to accelerated reform efforts inside Iraq and across the region.
Preparation, patience, and understanding remain the core message.
The video is a detailed commentary and discussion centered around the Iraqi dinar, the political situation in Iraq, regional currency reforms, and related financial developments as of late December 2025. The speaker, Frank, a currency and investment commentator, opens with a prayer and frames the discussion within a spiritual context, emphasizing faith and reliance on God amid financial uncertainty.
Political Developments in Iraq:
On December 29, 2025, the Iraqi parliament elected Habibit Halabusi as the new Speaker of the House. This is noted as a different Halabusi from the previous one, causing some confusion.
The Kurdish delegation actively participated in the vote, despite dissatisfaction with the outcome, as they preferred a different candidate.
The parliament is working towards passing important laws, especially the HCL (High Council Law), which is critical for economic and monetary reforms.
The government formation process is advancing faster than usual, with optimism about finalizing positions and enabling legislative progress.
Prime Minister Sudani is pushing to break the stalemate in government formation by offering factions a choice between following the constitution or facing political consequences.
Currency and Monetary Reform:
There is ongoing speculation about a new exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar, with the current rate of 1310 IQD/USD expiring on December 31, 2025.
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) officially states that the end-of-year “reassessment” of the exchange rate is a review, not necessarily a change, though the speaker argues reassessment strongly implies change.
The passage of the HCL and other stalled laws is dependent on the establishment of a new exchange rate.
Frank warns that failure to increase the exchange rate could cause the US to withdraw support, leaving Iraq vulnerable to Iranian influence.
Other Middle Eastern countries like Syria and Iran are also undergoing currency reforms and economic challenges, with Syria launching a new currency with a 90-day adaptation window.
Regional and Global Context:
Iran is experiencing internal uprisings and protests against the Islamic regime, which Frank views positively for the regional monetary reform prospects.
Japan is reportedly investing heavily in Iraqi infrastructure projects, signaling international confidence and involvement.
The discussion mentions the possibility of US sanctions and tariffs impacting regional currencies.
Investor and Banking Insights:
Frank shares a firsthand account from a viewer who was contacted by a Chase Bank wealth manager aware of his significant currency investments, indicating banks are actively tracking dinar holders.
Investors are advised to prepare for meetings with banks by documenting their holdings and understanding banking products such as FDIC insurance limits and investment returns.
Frank and his broker plan to continue selling Iraqi dinars and expand offerings to include 12-15 other currencies.
The market for the Iraqi dinar is expected to shift from retail investors to larger “sharks and whales” once monetary reform progresses.
Timeline of Key Events
Date
Event
Dec 29, 2025
Iraqi parliament elects Habibit Halabusi as Speaker of the House; Kurdish delegates vote but are unhappy.
Dec 31, 2025
Official expiration/reassessment date of the current Iraqi dinar exchange rate (1310 IQD/USD).
Early January 2026
Expected continuation of parliamentary votes on deputy positions and passing of the HCL.
Within 90 days
Syria’s announced adaptation period for its newly launched currency.
Early January 2026
Anticipated arrival of US representatives in Iraq to oversee and influence government and monetary reforms.
Definitions and Clarifications
Term
Explanation
HCL (High Council Law)
Key legislation linked to monetary reform and budget approval in Iraq.
Exchange Rate Reassessment
Official review and potential adjustment of the IQD/USD rate, currently at 1310.
FDIC Insurance
US banking insurance covering up to $250,000 per account, with programs covering up to $3 million for some accounts.
“Sharks and Whales”
Large investors who buy significant currency amounts during or after monetary reform.
Important Quotes
“If they don’t change the rate, all hell is going to break loose in your country for your monetary reform and your economic reform.”
“The only way that they can do this is if they have a new rate because most of the stalled laws are rate related.”
“The Central Bank of Iraq denies imminent plans for an exchange rate change but calls for a reassessment.”
“Iran is in an all-out war with the US and Israel, but the uprising inside Iran is seen as positive for monetary reform.”
A SENIOR US EMBASSY OFFICIAL: FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS AN IRAQI DECISION
The chargé d’affaires confirmed in US Embassy I have Baghdad, Joshua Harris on Thursday, that America remains concerned about irregular financial transactions. Legitimacy inside Iraq, there are no new decisions regarding this matter.
The chargé d’affaires told Alsumaria News in an exclusive statement that Iraqi partners affirm their non-interference and their commitment to not dragging the country into the ongoing conflict in the region, and to maintaining security within its borders, noting that America it works to increase the activity of American companies within Iraq according to the principle of mutual exchange with Baghdad.
American companies are actively working with Iraqi partners, which will lead to mutually beneficial partnerships. He emphasized that America is not seeking a new conflict, and its vision for the future is peace in Iraq and throughout the world.
He added that Iraqi leaders understand that including factions in the new government is incompatible with the partnership between Baghdad and Washington.
Regarding the possibility of taking escalatory measures against the factions, the Chargé d’Affaires stressed, “
We encourage Iraqi state regarding the dismantling of factions, he stated that America will defend itself and its interests in Iraq,” indicating that the decision regarding the form of the new government is purely American.
Concerning the lifting of US sanctions on Iraqi banks, he explained that America remains concerned about illicit financial transactions. Legitimacy within Iraq, there are no new decisions regarding this matter.
Regarding the issue of arming and equipping air defense systems…Kurdistan Region. He stated that America is deeply committed to Iraqi sovereignty and to condemning all threats to the country’s security. He added that they are working with their partners in Baghdad and Kurdistan to find ways to protect infrastructure, but he would not go into military details at this time. He further stated that they are demanding that the governments of Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region quickly hold those responsible for the attack on the Kor Mor gas field accountable.