Friday, June 27, 2025
ISIS remains contained: No sign of strategic revival in Iraq and Syria
Shafaq News
Despite its territorial defeat in Iraq and later in Syria, ISIS continues to exploit security vacuums and volatile geographies to stage sporadic attacks, particularly across remote border regions and rugged terrains. While the organization no longer wields the influence it once held during its peak in 2014–2017, recent developments suggest it is actively repositioning itself for relevance rather than resurgence.
Strategic Shift and Tactical Resurgence
Compared to its peak in mid-2014—when ISIS captured large parts of Nineveh, Saladin, Al-Anbar, and portions of Diyala and Kirkuk—the group’s current capabilities are considerably reduced. Iraq declared victory over ISIS in late 2017, reclaiming nearly one-third of its territory once held by the group.
In Syria, the group's territorial hold collapsed in March 2019 after the fall of Baghouz Fawqani, following a prolonged battle with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.
While territorial control may have ended, ISIS’s threat has morphed into a covert, transnational challenge driven by decentralized cells and ideological offshoots. Over the past three years, ISIS has adjusted its tactics to capitalize on emerging regional shifts, particularly the political and military upheavals in Syria.
A noticeable uptick in attacks has been recorded, underscored by the suicide bombing that targeted Mar Elias Church in Damascus's al-Dweila area.
In 2024 alone, ISIS conducted 491 operations in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which noted that the group took advantage of persistent instability to regroup.
The Soufan Center corroborated this trend, estimating that ISIS attacks tripled in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, a statement from US Central Command (CENTCOM) in July confirmed ISIS had carried out 153 attacks across Iraq and Syria in the first half of 2024 alone, an alarming increase reflecting what CENTCOM described as the group’s attempt to "reshape itself after years of diminished capability."
As 2025 reaches its midpoint, ISIS is once again activating its sleeper cells along the porous Iraqi-Syrian border. However, this activity remains limited in scale and lacks the broader operational momentum necessary for a major comeback.
According to multiple security studies, ISIS’s operational core has shifted, with a greater focus on Africa and parts of Asia, rather than Iraq or Syria. Notably, Wilayat Khorasan, the ISIS branch based in Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, has emerged as its most lethal wing.
The group has been widely blamed for recent high-casualty attacks in Moscow and Kerman, Iran. In Africa, ISIS maintains five active branches in regions including the Lake Chad Basin, northern Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Iraq’s Containment
The containment of ISIS activity owes much to sustained counterterrorism efforts by Iraqi security forces, Kurdish Peshmerga units, and Global Coalition partners. In June alone, Iraqi and coalition forces conducted more than seven targeted operations—both aerial and ground-based—against ISIS cells in northern Iraq.
Ali Neama al-Bandawi, a member of Iraq’s Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, told Shafaq News that ISIS “no longer poses a systemic threat,” emphasizing that “only scattered individuals and small cells remain.”
He noted effective coordination between Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga in disputed areas as a key factor preventing any significant ISIS resurgence.
Security expert Mukhlid Hazem al-Darib told Shafaq News that “the Iraqi-Syrian border is secured by a three-layer surveillance system, including aerial monitoring and real-time tracking.” While acknowledging that “no system is foolproof,” al-Darib expressed confidence in Iraq’s ability to thwart infiltration attempts, citing both the physical security measures and “societal rejection” of extremist actors.
Political analyst Mujashaa al-Tamimi echoed this assessment. Speaking to Shafaq News, he stressed that “Iraq today is not the same as during the previous phase of security collapse,” citing a more advanced intelligence infrastructure and “real-time border control.”
Al-Tamimi also pointed to the technical and intelligence support provided by the US-led coalition, which enables preemptive action against suspected ISIS movements. “The environment now is far more resilient and responsive to emerging threats,” al-Tamimi concluded, making a wide-scale comeback by ISIS sleeper cells “unlikely.”
Internal Barriers to Revival
Political analyst Mohammed Nanaa emphasized that ISIS today faces significant obstacles in rebuilding its networks inside Iraq. “Unlike before, the group can no longer recruit locals easily,” he said, attributing this shift to the erosion of ISIS's social appeal and the improved awareness among communities previously targeted by its propaganda.
Nanaa further argued that the broader regional context is increasingly hostile to any renewed insurgency. “The prevailing climate across the region favors peace and investment, not conflict,” he noted, adding that both regional and international stakeholders are keen to prevent any resurgence of violence that could derail economic and geopolitical recalibrations underway.
The group’s lack of broad recruitment capabilities, improved counterterrorism coordination, and societal resistance, “all suggest that Iraq is unlikely to return to the conditions that enabled ISIS’s rise in 2014,” Nanaa concluded.
WALKINGSTICK: this will be all done by the end of the 2nd quarter or at the beginning of the 3rd quarter!!!
Walkingstick
[Iraqi banking friend Aki update]
Question: "Do you feel Alaq will give us the new exchange rate this month or at least in this quarter?"
AKI: This is what I have heard. This is not going to be given to you as a fact. You know what I do [manage a bank].
You know where I'm at [Dearborn Michigan] ...I have heard this will be all done by the end of the 2nd quarter or at the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
Iraq balanced gains and losses from the Iran-Israel conflict
The recent 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel had a dual economic impact on Iraq, leaving the country at a neutral point between gains and losses, Mudhhir Mohammed Saleh, the financial and economic adviser to the Iraqi government, stated on Thursday.
Describing the war’s impact as a “double-edged shock” to the national economy, Saledh noted that on the positive side, oil prices saw a short-term premium of 6 to 7 percent per barrel, benefiting Iraq’s revenues without disrupting exports.
“This price premium generated an estimated $150 to $160 million in additional revenues over a short period,” Saleh told Shafaq News, assuming a daily export volume of 3.3 million barrels. “Exports continued uninterrupted despite threats of Gulf closures.”
However, Saleh pointed out that Iraq also faced significant negative economic effects. These included higher import costs due to disruptions in maritime insurance markets, global price fluctuations, increased shipping expenses, losses in air transport, supply chain delays, forgone airspace transit fees, and a sharp decline in religious tourism during the conflict.
“The indirect losses roughly equaled the additional oil revenue,” he said, “leaving the Iraqi economy in a state of neutral uncertainty — neither a clear profit nor a net financial loss.”
He cautioned against relying on such temporary windfalls when shaping long-term policy. “This kind of wartime profit cannot support sustainable economic planning,” Saleh said, urging the government to establish a sovereign emergency fund to absorb future shocks and reduce pressure on public spending.
He also recommended developing at least four independent oil export routes to bolster economic resilience.
IRAQI DINAR RV REPORT UPDATE
IRAQI DINAR RV REPORT UPDATE
As of June 2025, HSBC is reportedly exchanging Iraqi Dinar (IQD) at select branches across the UK, US, and Asia.
Several sources indicate that HSBC has implemented structured foreign exchange procedures for both the Iraqi Dinar and Vietnamese Dong,
TIMING OF THE IQD RV
The timing of an Iraqi Dinar (IQD) revaluation is uncertain. As of June 2025, the exchange rate remains stable at around 1,310 IQD per USD.
The Iraqi government has aimed to strengthen th
e dinar, with a 2023 adjustment to 1,300 IQD per USD, but market rates are higher, around 1,630.
Economic challenges like oil dependency and corruption hinder progress. Speculation tying revaluation to recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran lacks evidence.
No official announcements indicate an imminent revaluation. Monitor the Central Bank of Iraq for updates, but significant change seems unlikely without major reforms
Government advisor: The ceasefire agreement provided temporary relief to oil markets
Government advisor: The ceasefire agreement provided temporary relief to oil markets
The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, confirmed on Thursday that the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist entity has returned oil markets to a downward trend.
Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist entity, which halted threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz - threats issued within the context of escalation with the Zionist entity - oil markets returned to a downward path and headed towards peace indicators, after a sudden hedging wave that they witnessed at the height of tension."
He added, "The Strait of Hormuz is strategic, through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes, in addition to a third of liquefied natural gas supplies destined for international markets under ongoing, long-term contracts." He noted that "the decision to cease the war has given energy markets a strong positive signal indicating the stability of supply routes, especially in the world's most important energy corridor. "
“This was directly reflected in Brent crude prices, which are considered a benchmark for oil pricing, as they recorded an immediate drop of more than 5%, equivalent to $3 to $4 per barrel in a single session. This is considered one of the largest daily declines in recent times, which means the end of the threat and the return of balance to the market,” he continued, stressing that “the end of the threats that were threatening the Strait of Hormuz and the return to the language of calm represented a temporary moment of relief for the markets. However, in reality, this relief does not necessarily mean long-term stability, as the fragility of the truce and the possibility of renewed clashes if diplomatic efforts fail, maintain a high level of caution in future forecasts.”
He explained that "the market is now pricing oil and is once again being affected by traditional economic factors: from weak demand, to OPEC+ production policies, to competition between exporting countries from within and outside the organization."
He pointed out that "public finances in Iraq must adhere to the constants of hedging and financial discipline included in Law No. 13 of 2023 (the three-year budget), which is spending according to the optimal minimum requirements and resorting to domestic borrowing when needed, as permitted by the law and in a way that does not disrupt basic operational and investment expenditures, even with the disappearance of the (strategic oil premium) generated by threats to the Strait of Hormuz." link
FIREFLY: 'We are stable and strong and we have price discipline!!
Frank26
[Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]
FIREFLY:Saleh is on TV and he says, 'We are stable and strong and we have price discipline and we have three reasons for it.'
FRANK: 1310 is not price discipline because it fluctuates and it's bouncing all over the place...The new exchange rate is the #1 reason. That's what he's talking about...A new exchange rate requires this conversion.
Iraq chairs the Asia-Pacific group and receives international endorsement
Iraq chairs the Asia-Pacific group and receives international endorsement
Iraq assumed the presidency of the Asia-Pacific Group for the month of July, and received the group's support for its candidacy for membership in the Human Rights Council (2026–2028). The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “the monthly meeting of the Asia-Pacific Group was held for the month of June at the United Nations headquarters in New York, during which the group’s countries announced their support and endorsement of the Republic of Iraq’s candidacy for membership in the Human Rights Council for the period 2026–2028.”
He added that “this endorsement is the result of the intensive diplomatic efforts made by the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, through its permanent missions and embassies around the world, as part of the nomination campaign that reflects Iraq’s firm commitment to the values and principles of human rights.”
The Permanent Representative of the Republic of Iraq to the United Nations, Abbas Kazim Obaid, expressed his “deep thanks and gratitude to the member states of the regional group for their support,” noting that “this endorsement represents an important milestone in the nomination process and adds a double responsibility to the Iraqi delegation ahead of the elections scheduled for the United Nations General Assembly in October 2025.”
In his address to the group, Obaid stressed that “Iraq’s candidacy for membership in the Human Rights Council is based on the national achievements and measures taken by the Iraqi government in the field of promoting human rights, as well as Iraq's constructive cooperation with relevant UN mechanisms." During the meeting, the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in his capacity as Chair of the Group for the month of June, announced that "Iraq will assume the chairmanship of the Asia-Pacific Group for July 2025, a step that reflects the growing confidence in Iraq's active role within the UN system.
The handover ceremony took place, and all missions of Member States and regional groups were officially informed." At the conclusion of the meeting, the Member States of the Group expressed their congratulations to Iraq on assuming the chairmanship of the Group, expressing their confidence in its ability to effectively represent the Group's interests and priorities. linl
IQD RV UPDATE
IQD RV UPDATE
Forex Activity: Rate suppression appears to be lifted. New rates have been briefly visible on multiple platforms. The system has passed the point of no return.
Funding Underway:
• Mr. Salvage: Pentecostal group is actively dispersing funds.
• MarkZ: Bond holders are being paid today.
• Zester: Travel funds are being dispersed.
• Military confirmation: Bondholders are fully liquid; whales and 4A SKRs are next.
Reno Movement: Increased private jet traffic reported
Trigger Groups: trigger groups have been activated and are receiving funds
RV Timing:
• Jentel & Bara: Possible trigger after midnight tonight (Reno time).
• 4A & 4B expected to roll out within minutes or hours of each other.
Liquidity & Market Readiness:
• Large firms and banks confirm liquidity is in place.
• Bankers say everything is complete — no further delays expected.
• If not released now, a restart would be required, which markets won’t allow.
Expected Go-Live: Thursday (possibly Friday at latest).
Trump “Comm”: Referenced a “rise in rate” in a press conference — interpreted by some as a signal.
Al-Mashhadani hopes that Iraqis will achieve their aspirations for a dignified and prosperous life.
Al-Mashhadani hopes that Iraqis will achieve their aspirations for a dignified and prosperous life.
During his congratulations on the Hijri New Year
Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani congratulated Iraqis on Thursday on the occasion of the new Hijri year, wishing them the fulfillment of their aspirations for a dignified and prosperous life.
Al-Mashhadani's office said:
The Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Dr. Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, extends his sincere congratulations and best wishes to our honorable people and to the entire Islamic nation on the occasion of the new Hijri year.
He asks God Almighty to make it a year of goodness, peace, and stability, in which the aspirations of our people for a dignified and prosperous life are fulfilled, and to bring this occasion back to our beloved Iraq while it enjoys glory and progress, and to bring security, peace, and unity to our Islamic nation. link
FIREFLY: Mr Sammy told me the CBI is lifting payment restrictions
Frank26
[Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]
FIREFLY:Mr Sammy told me the CBI is lifting payment restrictions.
FRANK: YES!!
FIREFLY: No more payment limits. This was in place to help against money laundering against Iran.
It helped to keep everything safe.
The transactions were being protected but now the transactions will be easier to facilitate. This is great news for monetary reform. That means companies and investors can now invest easier with Iraq and our citizens can send and receive money easier outside of Iraq.
This give us green light for international transactions. Mr Sammy says movements like this would be right before a change in our rate...
FRANK: There's no limit now. That means there's no limit for the float.
FRANK26: "EDDIE'S REPORT"
KTFA
FRANK26: "EDDIE'S REPORT"........F26
Simultaneous attacks target military bases and US forces in Iraq
6/23/2025
A security source reported on Tuesday that military sites and other sites housing US forces in Iraq were subjected to a series of simultaneous attacks, including a drone attack targeting the vicinity of Baghdad International Airport and another missile attack targeting Ain al-Assad Air Base in the west of the country, with no casualties reported.
The source explained to Shafaq News Agency, "Air defense systems intercepted drones that attacked sites within the vicinity of Baghdad International Airport."
In another attack, the source said, "A number of drones also attacked the Ain al-Assad base in the al-Baghdadi district of Anbar province," noting that "defense systems also repelled the attack."
A drone attack targeted the Taji base north of Baghdad, targeting an Iraqi army radar.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks at the time of writing, although information indicates similar attacks occurred at the Imam Ali base in southern Iraq and another at the Balad base in Salah al-Din Governorate.
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