Iraq has to be Article VIII to ascend to the WTO...Are they going to say they're Article VIII at 1300?
No they're not. Absolutely not. Theoretically/technically they could but they're not...
How do we know they're not?They'll implode. They cannot do all the things listed on the budget. Why would you go at 1300 to 1 when you could go 1 to 4?
Jeff
The budget has not been approved to date. That means it remains in an incomplete unapproved state...Yes they voted on it since last June but...
two Sundays ago Iraq's council of Ministers...did a draft amendment to the budget making it so it's no longer in an approved state. Parliament still needs to approve the budget again...The budget right now is incomplete and unapproved by parliament.
Community comment: "Iraq is a sovereign country." If Iraq was really sovereign that would mean no other country would have any power or control over them. They would have their independence and they would have possession of all their country's property.
We're still waiting on the House of representatives within the United States to vote to remove the United State's War Authorization off of Iraq...That's one level of not having sovereignty and still having restrictions on Iraq.
US Ambassador Affirms Central Role of US in Middle Eastern Policy, 3 OCT
Despite the shift in foreign policy focus under President Joe Biden’s administration, the United States continues to maintain a central role in Middle Eastern policy, as emphasized by US Ambassador to the UAE, Martina Strong. The ambassador’s recent discussion with reporter Dan Murphy highlighted the US’s commitment to its diplomatic relations and strategic interests in the region, notwithstanding the change in priorities at the White House.
Phase One: Attempted Rebalance
Unlike his predecessors, President Biden did not place a high priority on the Middle East in his overall foreign policy. Entering office in January 2021, Biden was propelled by pressing domestic issues, primarily the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant economic crisis. Consequently, the early days of Biden’s presidency were largely focused on managing the home front, re-engaging allies and partners in Asia and Europe, responding to the rise of China, and tackling climate change.
However, the Middle East, a region fraught with political instability, religious conflicts, and economic challenges, could not be entirely sidelined. Despite the administration’s initial approach of reducing over commitment in the region, the geopolitical significance of the Middle East necessitated a continued US presence and involvement.
Ruthless Pragmatism in Middle East Policy
The Biden administration’s Middle East policy has been characterized as one of ‘ruthless pragmatism.’ This approach involved maintaining a diplomatic distance while avoiding overextension in the region. Examples of this stance can be seen in the administration’s passive approach to Syria and its limited engagement with Iraq, despite the multiple security predicaments and political turmoil in these countries.
Despite the criticism directed at the administration for doing either too much or too little, the US maintained its commitment to safeguarding its interests in the region. This included appointing special envoys for Yemen, Libya, and the Horn of Africa, reengaging Iran in international talks on its nuclear program, and expressing a general desire to deescalate tensions in the region.
Guarding Against Overextension
The Biden administration sought to guard against the deep levels of engagement that had at times overwhelmed previous administrations. This included checking the military presence in the region and refraining from over-promising and under-delivering in terms of policy commitments.
In this context, the administration focused on fostering relationships with regional partners and allies, emphasizing a commitment to Israel’s security, deterring Iranian aggression, and disrupting the Islamic State. These efforts were aimed at maintaining stability in the region while ensuring that the US’s strategic interests were upheld.
A Continued Central Role
The reaffirmation of the US’s central role in Middle Eastern policy by Ambassador Martina Strong underscores the continued significance of the region in global geopolitics. Despite the shift in foreign policy focus under the Biden administration, the US will continue to engage in the region, albeit with a more pragmatic and cautious approach. The commitment to maintaining stability, fostering diplomatic relations, and upholding strategic interests in the Middle East remains a key aspect of US foreign policy.
Kurdistan Region of Iraq to Deepen Economic Ties with Iran, Boosting Trade Exchange, 3 OCT
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s (KRI) Importers and Exporters Union is committed to enhancing its relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly in the economic and trade sectors. Mustafa Sheikh Abdul Rahman, President of the Union, outlined plans to augment trade exchange, with a specific emphasis on the city of al-Sulaymaniyah.
Strengthening Trade Ties
The plans for trade expansion were discussed in a meeting with Hojjatollah Abdolmaleki, advisor to the Iranian President. The Union seeks to exploit trade exchange with Iran’s free zones to meet the needs of Kurdish investors. Both the Union and Abdolmaleki will continue to strategize and meet to discuss further plans for KRI-Iran trade expansion. The Iranian Consul in al-Sulaymaniyah confirmed that trade between the two parties has already surpassed two billion dollars.
Iran’s Influence in the Region
Amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues, Iran has increased pressure on both cities to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region. Most of these parties are in areas controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), except the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) who are in territories controlled by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the Qandil mountains.
The position of the Kurdistan Region significantly weakened after Baghdad won an international arbitration case in Paris against Turkey, stopping the export of 500,000 barrels of oil per day through Turkey. This decision significantly impacted Kurdistan’s primary form of revenue generation, making it more dependent on Baghdad’s budget. Consequently, the KRG is under pressure to make concessions.
Political Dynamics in the Region
Even before the current administration of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Iran has carried out several ballistic missile and drone attacks on Iranian Kurdish forces in the Kurdistan Region since 2018. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) previously instructed the Iranian Kurdish parties to refrain from using the Kurdistan Region’s territory as a staging ground for attacks on Iran.
However, the political and economic challenges for the autonomous region have escalated, with an increasingly belligerent government in Baghdad. The KRG’s rivals, including militia groups designated as terrorists by the United States, have begun circling, sensing America’s focus is elsewhere.
Implications for the United States
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) plays a crucial role in U.S. interests. Its Peshmerga forces are key partners in the fight against the Islamic State and other extremist groups. The region has historically acted as a buffer against tumult and turmoil in the rest of Iraq. However, with Washington now preoccupied with its intensifying rivalry with China and the war in Ukraine, little attention is being paid to Kurdistan. Its collapse would spell upheaval and chaos with implications stretching well beyond Iraq.
[Iraqi banking friend Aki update] Your bank opened?Yes it did...The bank was not open until now to the public...Due to the United States Treasury giving them a new license they now can run as an international bank inside of the United States of America that will have to follow all international banking laws inside of America. This is not the only one [bank] that has an opening around the world...As of this hour we're in right now, worldwide 138 of these banks have opened so far...
MarkZ
[via PDK] For those worried about paying taxes on the exchange…..This is from the US state Dept. Bilateral Investment Agreements and Taxation Treaties… Iraq does not have a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) or a bilateral taxation treaty with the United States. ...it states “There are no taxes or subsidies on purchases or sales of foreign exchange.
“
.a few sources are traveling back to Iraq later this week in the hopes that this is “it” for them. This is encouraging and we will see if it is accurate...
Hearing some pretty interesting stuff…including confirmations from banks...This comes from different sources... Many of the foreign currencies that we have been look for and talking about are now showing on bank screens. This came after the weekend forex updates
. We believe this is fantastic news...I had a number of bankers reach out …ones that had always questioned and doubted me…saying they think I am right and this is about to go. I am getting excited about this …even though we don’t know the exact timing. Question: Could it be this week? Absolutely...We are still looking for announcements out of Iraq on the 3rd or the 4th….most likely the 4th...
"Controversial Points" Between Baghdad And The Region Delay The Approval Of The Oil And Gas Law
2023-10-03 Shafaq News/ Member of the Oil and Gas Committee, Ali Abdul Sattar Al-Marshoud, confirmed that the oil and gas law has not reached the committee yet due to controversial points being resolved between Baghdad and Erbil, while its approval is contingent on resolving the controversial points.
Al-Marshoud told Shafaq News Agency: “Points of disagreement between the regional government and the federal government delayed the referral of the law to the Oil and Gas Committee,” noting that “the central government refuses to make a change to the paragraphs that the regional government is required to amend, which is the spirit of the law.”
He pointed out "the continuation of discussions between the Ministry of Oil and the committee formed by the Prime Minister and between the regional government and the political forces to end and resolve the controversial issues."
Al-Marshoud conditioned the approval of the oil and gas law on resolving the controversial points according to the meetings that he considered good and positive, stressing that the law will be approved during the current session after resolving the controversial issues. LINK
An Economic Expert Details The Cash Conversion Cycle Of The Iraqi Dinar
Time: 10/02/2023 Read: 533 times {Economic: Al-Furat News} The economist, Salah Nouri, detailed the monetary conversion cycle of the Iraqi dinar.
Nouri said {to Al-Furat News} that: “The monetary cycle {the Iraqi dinar} exists between the Central Bank as the monetary authority and the only authorized one to issue the national currency and the Ministry of Finance as the financial authority authorized to implement the federal budget in terms of spending and collection.”
He added, "The third party is the public, the financial institutions {governmental and private banks} and the trade, agriculture and industry sectors, meaning that the cash that is offered to the public when implementing the budget returns to the Central Bank and then to the Ministry of Finance."
Nouri explained, “What is happening is that the cash raised through the implementation of the budget will not return to the central bank at a high rate and therefore to the Ministry of Finance,” attributing the most prominent reasons for this to “the exclusion of private banks from the currency auction, which no longer deposit the Iraqi dinar with the central bank in exchange for the dollar.” “In addition to the tendency of the public and merchants towards hoarding and dealing in cash not through banks.”
He stated, "The exclusion of private banks from the auction is the main reason; but this does not mean that they have a positive role in the economy. Rather, they only practice speculation in dollars, and they are supposed to engage in economic activity by accepting deposits and lending to economic projects."
Nouri added, “Accepting deposits and keeping a percentage of them with the Central Bank also contributes a percentage to returning the dinar to the Central Bank. This is why the Central Bank’s decision was for banks that were punished by the US Federal Reserve from dealing in dollars to continue dealing in dinars in their economic activities that are not speculative in dollars.”
He stressed that "the Central Bank can provide liquidity to the Ministry of Finance by issuing a new monetary mass, despite its disadvantages."
Specialists in economic and financial affairs reported that despite the large size of the monetary supply, which amounts to (83) trillion dinars, there is a noticeable scarcity of cash liquidity from the Iraqi dinar in the commercial markets, explaining that this comes for several reasons, the first of which is mismanagement. The financial file in the country. From: Raghad Dahham LINK
MarkZ Tuesday Update- Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
Member: Happy Tuesday! I think an RV sounds good for today
Member: Happy Iraqi Independence Day
Member: If nothing else happens today I'm still happy for Iraq's Independence
MZ: There is very little Iraqi news today. But no news at this point is a good thing. This means they are controlling the leaks.
Member: Interesting aticle just posted about Sudani talking about Iraqs ascension into the The League of Nations.
Member: I wonder why we don’t see any videos of the Iraqi people celebrating their Independence Day today?
MZ: Probably for the same reasons the people in Iraq don’t see videos of us celebrating the 4th of July.
MZ: For those worried about paying taxes on the exchange…..This is from the US state Dept. Bilateral Investment Agreements and Taxation Treaties… Iraq does not have a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) or a bilateral taxation treaty with the United States. Here is the link and it states “There are no taxes or subsidies on purchases or sales of foreign exchange.“
MZ: Foreign Exchange and Remittances Foreign Exchange Policies
The currency of Iraq is the Dinar (IQD). Iraqi authorities confirm that in practice there are no restrictions on current and capital transactions involving currency exchange as long as underlying transactions are supported by valid documentation. The NIL allows investors to repatriate capital brought into Iraq, along with proceeds. Funds can be associated with any form of investment and freely converted into any world currency. The NIL also contains provisions that allow investors to maintain accounts at banks licensed to operate in Iraq and transfer capital inside or outside of the country.
The GOI’s monetary policy since 2003 has focused on ensuring price stability primarily by maintaining a de facto peg between the IQD and the USD while seeking to maintain exchange rate predictability through supplying USD to the Iraqi market. Banks may engage in spot transactions in any currency but are not allowed to engage in forward transactions in Iraqi Dinars for speculative purposes. There are no taxes or subsidies on purchases or sales of foreign exchange.
Member: My brother received a letter from his bank that they will be exchange foreign currencies. His banker even discussed the QFS with him.
MZ: I love it…Its not as big a secret anymore.
Member: I got a curious email yesterday from Wells Fargo. My "personal banker" just reaching out. That's never happened.
Member: The federal government said it will conduct on Wednesday afternoon a nationwide test of its Emergency Alert System and Wireless Emergency Alerts.
Member: According to Phil G, he said the EBS tomorrow is not the one we have been waiting for. It is is look here not there.
Member: stock market down over 300 points right now…….hope we get the crash.
Member: Mark- What is your gut telling you?
MZ: My gut is screaming “Within the week” It will start tingling tomorrow…..imo….and I hope by this weekend we will have it.
Member: Do we know what kind of emails we will get?
MZ: I assume you mean the email when this finally happens. Just sign up at Dinar Recaps….I have had 2 different main stream banks tell me that they plan on sending the information directly to them to send to their mailing list and reach as many folks as possible.
Member: Mark will you still be providing the 800 numbers as well?
MZ: I will share everything I am allowed to share.
Member: Chronicles, Mark, Bruce, TNT, Frank and others will also be posting the info….is what I was told. .
Member: When the RV happens I pray that Gesera, Nesera will be right behind it or part of it.
Member: Mark you have been a angel for us through this for us Thank You!!
StacieZ joins the stream at the end today….please listen to replay for her information
Kurdistan's presidency condemns "terrorist" attack in Ankara, 2 OCT
Shafaq News/ The Presidency of Iraq's Kurdistan region condemned the "terrorist" attack that targeted the Turkish capital, Ankara, on Sunday.
In statement, the Presidency expressed deep concern about the serious threats of terrorism and violence to the security and stability of the region. It emphasized the importance of "joint efforts to block the path of terrorism and its sources in the region."
Earlier today, the Turkish defense ministry said its warplanes have carried out raids on suspected Kurdish rebel targets in the Kurdistan region of Iraq on Sunday following a suicide attack on a government building in the Turkish capital.
A ministry statement said some 20 targets of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, were “destroyed” in the aerial operation, including caves, shelters and depots.
Earlier, suicide bomber detonated an explosive device near an entrance of the Ministry of Interior Affairs, injuring two police officers. A second assailant was killed in a shootout with police Sunday, the interior minister said.
An news agency close to the PKK said he group has claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing.
The attack happened hours before Turkey’s Parliament was set to reopen after its three-month summer recess with an address by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Two police officers were slightly wounded in the bombing near an entrance to the Ministry of Interior Affairs, minister Ali Yerlikaya said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. Assailants who arrived at the scene inside a light commercial vehicle carried out the attack, he said.
“Our heroic police officers, through their intuition, resisted the terrorists as soon as they got out of the vehicle,” Yerlikaya later told reporters. “One of them blew himself up, while the other one was shot in the head before he had a chance to blow himself up.”
“Our fight against terrorism, their collaborators, the (drug) dealers, gangs and organized crime organizations will continue with determination,” he said.
The interior minister did not say who was behind the attack. However, ANF News, a news agency close to the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, reported Sunday night that the group had claimed responsibility for the blast.
Leftist extremists and the Islamic State group have also carried out deadly attacks throughout Turkey in the past.
Erdogan gave his speech in Parliament as planned and called the attack “the last stand of terrorism.”
“The scoundrels who targeted the peace and security of the citizens could not achieve their goals and they never will,” he said.
The president reiterated his government’s aim to create a 30-kilometer (20 mile) safe zone along Turkey’s border with Syria to secure its southern border from attacks.
Turkey has launched several incursions into northern Syria since 2016 to drive away the Islamic State group and a Kurdish militia group, known by the initials YPG, and controls swaths of territory in the area.
Turkey views the YPG as an extension of the PKK, which is listed as a terror group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. The PKK has waged an insurgency against Turkey since 1984. Tens of thousands of people have died in the conflict.
Last year, a bomb blast in a bustling pedestrian street in Istanbul left six people dead, including two children. More than 80 others were wounded. Turkey blamed the attack on the PKK and the YPG.
The State-run Anadolu Agency reported that the two attackers on Sunday had seized the vehicle in the central province of Kayseri from a veterinarian. The pro-government daily Sabah reported that they shot the man in the head and threw his body into a ditch by the side of the road. They then drove the vehicle to Ankara, roughly 300 kilometers (200 miles) away.
Security camera footage on Sunday showed the vehicle stopping in front of the ministry, with a man exiting it and rushing toward the entrance of the building before blowing himself up. A second man is seen following him.
Earlier, television footage showed bomb squads working near a vehicle in the area, which is located near the Turkish Grand National Assembly and other government buildings. A rocket launcher could be seen lying near the vehicle.
Turkish authorities later imposed a temporary blackout on images from the scene.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said an investigation has been launched into the “terror attack.”
“These attacks will in no way hinder Turkey’s fight against terrorism,” he wrote on X. “Our fight against terrorism will continue with more determination.”
Police cordoned off access to the city center and increased security measures, warning citizens that they would be conducting controlled explosions of suspicious packages.
The two police officers were being treated in a hospital and were not in serious condition, Yerlikaya said.
Egypt, which has normalized ties with Turkey after a decade of tensions, condemned the attack. A terse statement from the Foreign Ministry offered Egypt’s solidarity with Turkey.
The U.S. Embassy in Ankara and other foreign missions also issued messages condemning the attack.
Erdogan in his speech did not provide any indication as to when Turkey’s parliament may ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO.
Stockholm applied for NATO membership alongside Finland following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. While Finland has since joined, Turkey blocked Sweden’s membership in the military alliance, accusing it of not doing enough to tackle groups like PKK from operating on its soil. In a posting on X, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Stockholm “strongly condemns today’s terrorist attack in Ankara.”
“We reaffirm our commitment to long-term cooperation with Türkiye in combating terrorism and wish for quick and full recovery of the ones injured,” he wrote, using the Turkish government’s preferred spelling for the country.
Iraq and Russia Strengthen Bilateral Relations; Launch New Development Projects, 3 OCT
Paving the Way for Enhanced Cooperation
The Prime Minister of Iraq, Muhammad Shi’a Al-Sudani, and the assistant to the President of Russia recently convened to discuss the bilateral relations between their respective nations. The meeting aimed to identify avenues for increasing mutual cooperation across various sectors. The Prime Minister confirmed the launch of a development project, the Aluo port, as part of the discussion.
Celebration of National Day
The assistant to the Russian President extended greetings and congratulations to the Prime Minister on the occasion of National Day. The Russian representative reaffirmed Russia’s ambition to strengthen cooperation with Iraq across multiple levels. This mutual understanding indicates a growing diplomatic relationship between the two nations.
Reflecting on Past Relations
The historical relationship between Russia and Iraq has been marked by significant geopolitical events. One such event was the U.S invasion of Iraq, which had far-reaching implications on the bilateral relations between Russia and the U.S. The invasion led to a deterioration in relations that have continued to the present day. The diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks in 2010 reveal that by the end of 2002, Russia and the U.S were at an inflection point, with Russian President Vladimir Putin having invested significant political capital in attempts at rapprochement with the George W. Bush administration.
However, the U.S. invasion of Iraq brought these efforts to a halt. Russian leaders were primarily concerned about the implications of the war on Russia’s ability to collect the nearly $8 billion debt owed by Iraq. Putin expressed his concerns to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, stressing the need for the United Nations to address the Iraq issue.
Future Prospects
Despite the historical complexities, the recent meeting between the Iraqi Prime Minister and the assistant to the Russian President signifies a promising future for Iraq-Russia relations. The bilateral discussions and the launch of the Aluo port development project are indicative of a strengthened partnership between the two nations. As global dynamics continue to evolve, the strategic cooperation between Iraq and Russia is likely to play a crucial role in shaping their respective geopolitical stances.
Community comment "I always felt that if the dinar came out of the gate at one to one it would cause mass inflation due to the amount in circulation. Hitting the forex at 1000 to 1 makes more sense to me. I do believe however that it won’t stay there very long IMO as the demand will be great." Yes!!
The WTO...you don't have to have a high exchange rate. But what do you have to have in order to be part of the WTO? Your currency must be what?Sanction free. There must not be any restrictions on your bank or your currency to join the WTO.
A program rate is not a stable controlled exchange rate. They are saying things are different now. They are secure and stable. We do have international standards established...
Question: "Is Article VIII needed?" Article VIII will automatically come on once Article VII is official. In other words it's the next step that they walk into under the United Nations Security Council.
Pimpy
There is nothing out there right now not a single action that's happening that points to a revaluation of the Iraqi dinar. Nothing out there right now. Nothing.
Now, they are taking all the steps necessary to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar but there is nothing out there that points to the revelation of the Iraqi dinar, nothing whatsoever.
Iraqi President Proposes New Government Solution to Resolve Kirkuk Crisis, 3 OCT
The Kirkuk Dispute
A critical development has emerged in the Kirkuk crisis in Iraq, with the Iraqi President proposing a solution to the ongoing conflict. He advocates for the formation of a government that represents all components of the province, marking a significant step towards resolution. The city of Kirkuk, located 250 km north of Baghdad, is the capital of the Tamim province, often referred to by some Iraqis as the Kirkuk province. The city is built atop of one of Iraq’s key oil-producing fields, which hold approximately 13 percent of the nation’s proven reserves, making Iraq the third largest global holder of proven reserves.
Kirkuk is one of Iraq’s largest cities and is situated just outside the largely autonomous Kurdistan region, predominantly inhabited by Kurdish people. The city’s population comprises Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen as its three main ethnic groups, with the presence of Chaldean Catholic Christians and other minorities. The demographic balance in Kirkuk is a contentious issue due to the influx of Arab families during the 1970s and 1980s under former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s Arabisation policy, alongside the expulsion of thousands of Kurds and Turkmen.
The Heart of the Dispute
At the heart of the dispute lies the ethnic and political division. Kurds consider Kirkuk their ancient capital and insist that it be part of Kurdistan. On the other hand, Arabs and Turkmen demand that the city remain under central government authority. They believe that Kirkuk has been intentionally populated with Kurds to sway the demographic balance in their favor in any potential ballot. This ethnic tension has even caused concern in neighboring Turkey, which fears that Iraq’s Kurds could gain control of Kirkuk and establish it as the capital of a new state, possibly reigniting separatist movements among its own sizable Kurdish population.
The United Nations’ special representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, termed Kirkuk as the ‘mother of all issues’ in the country, emphasizing the necessity of a peaceful solution to the dispute for Iraq’s stability. The UN has proposed a model to resolve conflicts over several disputed areas near Kirkuk, which could serve as a reference for Kirkuk. This model involves determining administrative responsibility for the disputed areas and applying such a model to Kirkuk, with an emphasis on the protection of minorities.
Proposed Solution and International Intervention
One potential solution to the Kirkuk crisis was a referendum, mandated by the constitution, to decide Kirkuk’s status. However, it was delayed to give the United Nations time to put forth its proposals. The United Nations has urged Iraqi Kurds not to push for a referendum on whether the Kirkuk oil area should be part of their northern enclave, warning that such a vote could ignite conflict.
The United Nations, empowered by the Iraqi government to mediate a solution to the impasse, issued a report outlining possible solutions. These included a new political agreement that would ease the implementation of the constitutional plan for Kirkuk, including a census and referendum. Other proposals suggested Kirkuk become an Iraqi province like any other, become a governorate with special links to both Baghdad and Kurdistan, or gain a certain degree of autonomy.
The Path Forward
The Iraqi President’s proposal for a new government to represent all components of the province comes as a crucial development in this complex situation. If implemented successfully, this could pave the way for a peaceful resolution to the Kirkuk crisis, easing ethnic tensions and promoting stability in the region. However, the road to resolution may be fraught with obstacles, as it would require cooperation, compromise, and a shared commitment to peace from all parties involved.
Iraq Proposes Water Crisis Resolution with Turkey and Iran, 3 OCT
On March 24, Iraq became the first Middle Eastern country to join the United Nations Water Conference, a global initiative aiming to foster cooperation over shared water resources. This move was announced by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani at the United Nation’s first significant conference on water since the 1970s. Only two days prior, he had visited Ankara to request a greater release of water downstream to alleviate increasing water insecurity in Iraq—a request that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan pledged to fulfill.
Water Crisis in the Middle East
These developments follow weeks of violent clashes between protestors and security forces in southern Iraq’s Dhi Qar governorate over the escalating water crisis. However, protestors in Dhi Qar did not blame Turkey for their water woes; instead, they pointed the finger at the Iraqi government. The negotiations between Turkey and Iraq over water were far from coincidental. For over seventy-five years, diplomats have been striving to prevent international water disputes from inciting cross-border violence. Now, they are aiming to use international water agreements to prevent violence within national borders—a task that is becoming increasingly challenging.
States that fail to address water management within their borders often attribute their water problems to external factors, be it upstream neighbors or climate change. For years, downstream governments in the Middle East and North Africa have accused their neighbors of taking more than their fair share of water. These complaints have only intensified as the effects of climate change and decades of mismanagement have further reduced the available water share.
Blame Game Over Water Resources
In December 2021, amidst a prolonged drought, the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources threatened to sue Iran in international court over its water policies. Iraq accused Iran of digging tunnels to divert water away from Iraq. In response, Iran blamed Iraq’s water woes on Turkey, alleging that Ankara’s water policy was causing the dust storms that disrupt Iraq and Iran. Meanwhile, Turkey accused both Iranian and Iraqi politicians of scapegoating Ankara to shift the blame away from their own mismanagement of water resources.
Proposed Agreement with Turkey and Iran
Despite the difficulties, the official government spokesperson, Basem Al Awadi, recently expressed Iraq’s intent to establish an agreement with Turkey and Iran to address the water crisis. He conveyed this message during a call for a discreet and constructive dialogue with Turkey, assuring the nation that the current water crisis would not repeat itself. He revealed that ongoing negotiations were being conducted by Iraqi delegations, including technical experts from the Ministries of Water Resources and Foreign Affairs.
Al Awadi also disclosed a series of messages exchanged between the two countries to strengthen diplomatic ties, including visits from ministerial and official delegations. He underscored the indispensable nature of water resources for both Iraq and Turkey and stressed the need for extensive deliberations and measured discussions to forge satisfactory solutions that accommodate the interests of both parties through mutual understanding and dialogue.
A Hope for Enduring Solutions
Al Awadi expressed optimism, stating his belief that the ongoing crisis is a temporary setback and will soon pave the way for enduring solutions, thereby averting future recurrences. He emphasized that the water crisis remains a top priority for the government and the Prime Minister and affirmed that the government is resolute in upholding citizens’ rights and interests, committing to fulfill this duty within the boundaries of legality and constitutionality.
While the specific details of the proposed agreement are not yet revealed, suggesting that negotiations are still in the preliminary stages, this anticipated collaboration represents a significant step in regional diplomacy and mutual cooperation. It also reflects the escalating urgency of environmental issues, particularly water scarcity, and the need for collective action to resolve such problems.