Wednesday, September 11, 2024

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Strategy to Eliminate the Black Market and Strengthen the Iraqi Dinar, 12 SEPT

Strategy to Eliminate the Black Market and Strengthen the Iraqi Dinar

In a bold move aimed at strengthening the Iraqi Dinar, the government is devising a strategy to eliminate the black market, a key factor in currency value depreciation [1]. As of September 11, 2024, the Iraqi government has identified the black market as a significant obstacle to economic stability and the Dinar's value [1].

The Bilateral Effect of Currency Exchange

One of the challenges Iraq faces is the smuggling of dollars to Iran, a problem exacerbated by pro-Iranian proxies [1]. Prime Minister Shia Al-Sudani's commitment to tackling this issue could be pivotal in restoring economic stability [1].

Navigating Currency Volatility

The Iraqi Dinar has experienced persistent exchange rate volatility, with noticeable discrepancies between the official Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) rate and the black market rate [6]. These fluctuations have caused uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike [6].

The Bold Strategy: Currency Flotation

Economists propose a daring strategy to address volatility and the black market premium: currency flotation [6]. This involves removing the Dinar's peg to the US dollar, allowing its exchange rate to be determined by market forces [6]. While this may lead to short-term depreciation, advocates argue it could establish greater long-term stability [6].

Control Measures

In response to these challenges, Iraqi authorities have implemented control measures including restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, mandating domestic transactions in Dinars, and increased scrutiny of international remittances [6]. However, the effectiveness of these measures is still under evaluation [6].

A Managed Float Approach

Some analysts suggest a more measured approach, advocating for a "managed float" system [6]. This would allow for market flexibility while maintaining a level of CBI control, potentially avoiding excessive volatility [6].

Conclusion

The Iraqi government's strategy to eliminate the black market and strengthen the Dinar is a critical step towards economic stability. By addressing currency volatility and implementing effective control measures, Iraq aims to reinforce its national currency and enhance its economic standing [6].


DINARLAND HIGHLIGHTS!!, 12 SEPT

 DINARLAND HIGHLIGHTS

Summary

Iraqi Dinar updates reveal upcoming central bank decisions affecting the parallel market, potential increases in exchange rates, and comprehensive banking reforms.

Highlights

  • 🛢️ Five oil and gas laws are being discussed in Parliament.
  • 📉 Militia Man warns the parallel market may face upheaval.
  • 💵 Central bank decisions could confuse markets and raise exchange rates.
  • 📊 Mark Z predicts a significant shift in dollar-to-dinar exchange rates.
  • 🏦 Central Bank announces a comprehensive banking reform roadmap.
  • 🏴‍☠️ Fulu suggests eliminating the black market by raising currency value.
  • 🔒 Frank 26 reports on mechanisms to secure funds from potential theft.

Key Insights

  • 🛢️ Legislative Changes: The discussion of five oil and gas laws indicates a potential shift in Iraq’s economic landscape, impacting the Dinar’s value. 📈
  • 🔄 Market Disruption: Militia Man’s concerns about the parallel market highlight the risks of illegal currency trading, signaling possible government intervention. ⚠️
  • 📊 Exchange Rate Predictions: Mark Z’s forecast of a drastic change in exchange rates suggests volatility ahead, impacting investors holding Dinars. 💔
  • 🏦 Banking Reforms: The Central Bank’s roadmap for comprehensive reforms aims to enhance foreign transfers, potentially stabilizing the economy. 🌐
  • 💰  Black Market Elimination: Fulu’s strategy to raise currency value to eliminate black market profits presents a bold approach to strengthening the Dinar. 🏆
  • 🛡️ Security Measures: Frank 26’s report on securing funds indicates a focus on financial stability and fraud prevention, crucial for investor confidence. 🔐
  • ⏳ Revaluation Timing: With discussions of a revaluation this year, the current strategies may set the stage for a favorable environment for Dinar holders. ⌛


Iraq's New Oil Law: What It Means for Kurdistan

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Understanding Between the Iraq Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in 2024, 12 SEPT

 Understanding Between the Iraq Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in 2024

The relationship between the Iraq Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in 2024 is complex and multifaceted, marked by ongoing negotiations and disputes over key issues such as budget shares, elections, and oil autonomy.     

Political Dynamics and Governance

In 2024, Iraq continues to face challenges in governance, with a weak state structure influenced by non-democratic forces and a power system dominated by ethnic-confessional elites.  Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, the prime minister since October 2022, had difficulties in finalizing his cabinet, reflecting internal political tensions. The KRG, under the leadership of Masrour Barzani, has been seeking to strengthen its economy and renew its relationship with the federal government. 

Disputes Over Budget and Elections

A significant point of contention is the KRG's share of the federal budget. President of the Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani has met with Iraqi leaders to address this issue, aiming for a consensus on budget allocations.  Additionally, the electoral process in the Kurdistan Region has been impacted by legal challenges. In 2024, the Iraqi Supreme Court ruled that the 11 seats reserved for religious and ethnic minorities in the Kurdistan Parliament are unconstitutional, leading to the postponement of regional elections scheduled for June 2024. 

Oil Autonomy and Legal Rulings

Oil remains a critical component of the Iraqi economy and a source of tension between Baghdad and Erbil. The Federal Supreme Court of Iraq has ordered the KRG to hand over all oil and non-oil revenues to the federal government, a move seen as another blow to the region's oil autonomy.  This ruling has implications for international oil companies operating in the region, as it changes how they operate and negotiate contracts.

Security Cooperation and Interstate Relations

Security cooperation between the KRG and the federal government has improved due to the presence of fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Sinjar. However, this has also escalated conflict with Peshmerga forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).  External threats, such as attacks by Türkiye and Iran on the PKK inside Iraqi territory, pose additional challenges to regional stability. 

Conclusion

The understanding between the Iraq Federal Government and the KRG in 2024 is characterized by a series of negotiations, disputes, and legal rulings. Key areas of contention include budget shares, electoral processes, and oil autonomy. Security cooperation and external threats also play significant roles in shaping the relationship between the two governments.

"ABOUT THE NATIONAL RECONCILIATION BETWEEN KURDISTAN & BAGHDAD" BY MILITIAMAN, 12 SEPT

 Militia Man 

  "...Understanding between the Iraq Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government..."  

You have two entities coming together...They had a lot of turmoil in the past...  Now they've come to an agreement...A huge delegation from Iraq has gone to the Kurdistan region - The highest executive authorities in Iraq, the Ministerial Council of Economics...Planning, Trade, Interior, Central Bank of Iraq, legal...finance, oil department.  The whole list was immense...with their counterparts from the Kurdistan region...working it out, which reeks of national reconciliation.

..If they get National Reconciliation I can see Iraq is going to go so far.  It's phenomenal...Reconciliation is historic.

Article:  "The Parallel Market will be upended

 Quote:  "Expected decision from the central bank will confuse markets and raise exchange rates...These decisions will lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate When you're talking about the parallel market you're talking about a black market...an illegal market, that's subverting the platforms to get the dollar.  That's coming to an end...They're saying, parallel market...you're going to have a problem.  If you don't fix it you're going to get hurt [If you're holding dollars and not dinar]. 

 They're giving them [Iraqi citizens using the black markets] numerous warnings [to get out of the dollar].

US-Iraq Deal: End of a 23-Year Occupation

Signing several new agreements.. What is the agenda of the Iranian President's visit to Iraq? , 11 SEPT

   Signing several new agreements.. What is the agenda of the Iranian President's visit to Iraq?

9/10/2024

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to arrive in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, tomorrow morning, Wednesday, on his first foreign visit since assuming his current position.

According to the visit's agenda, upon his arrival at Baghdad International Airport, Pezeshkian will head to the site of the assassination of former Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

After that, he will head to the government palace where the official reception ceremony will take place by the President of the Republic of Iraq, Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid.

In the capital, Baghdad, Zeshkian will meet with: the Iraqi President, Acting Speaker of Parliament Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, and Chief Justice of the Supreme Judicial Council Judge Faiq Zidane.

On Wednesday afternoon, Bezeshkian will head to the Iranian embassy to attend two meetings, the first with Iranian merchants, and also with the Iranian community residing in Iraq.

On Wednesday evening, the Iranian president will be a guest at the dinner table of the "State Administration" coalition, which consists of most of the political blocs represented in the Iraqi parliament.

On Thursday, Bezeshkian will head to the cities of Najaf and Karbala, then to Basra in the far south of Iraq, and then to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region.

According to information received by Shafaq News Agency, during this visit, 10 to 15 agreements will be signed in Baghdad, most of which are economic, educational and cultural, and a security agreement may be included, but it is not confirmed.

The president is accompanied by the ministers of foreign affairs, defense, and trade, as well as a group of other Iranian ministers and officials.   LINK

*WHERE ARE WE NOW?* BY BRUCE VIA GEM FINCH ( ENGLISH AND SPANISH), 11 SEPT

INTEL ONLY

*WHERE ARE WE NOW?*

Gem Finch, [09/11/2024 12:35 PM]

As far as information goes, it had been quiet and then it opened up more yesterday and today and based on this information, first of all, we haven't talked too much about Iraq; we knew that all the new rates appeared on the screens on Sunday night after they were closed and we expected all the new rates to be completed; and usually we won't see them until Monday, 

but on Monday we heard that we had all the new rates in all the currencies in the banks; but today we didn't see them on RC's screens and Bruce thinks he knows why, because the rates on the banks' screens are not as high as RC's and we know it and when both the bank and RC have rates, we can see ; It has been shown that CR's are higher than banks; in fact the dinar was 3 times higher and the dong 2 times higher and I think it's just because they didn't want the high rates to be


visible. Continuing with Iraq, the CBI will disappear and the SBI Sovereign Bank of Iraq and that could happen tomorrow. We don't know anything about the site itself, but we were able to confirm a meeting on Sunday between Alak and several others and they were determining and confirming the rate which would be the SBI rate and which would be the international rate.

 The idea of ​​sovereign banks is really good, since central banks are disappearing. In the US, it is now Treasury and near Reno, Nevada, on an Indian reservation that is safe for now. That's all very good news and for Iraq to have that rate and possibly see it tomorrow.

In addition, the Iraqi dinar will be traded on the ISX, also on Forex, possibly with a new rate and on the SBI site itself. The contractual rate is extremely high and is the same as the selling rate of a barrel of oil, so this is good and of course it is subject to change and they will offer those of us who have dinars the contractual rate for the dinar . 


What situation do we find ourselves in over time? A well-known person in the community says that it is very possible that it will be tomorrow or Thursday, and that is very good news. The other information is that the RC leader would have received an email from a certain person in the ENTIRE RC east of the Big River and this leader had to send those emails. 

That doesn't mean they are the only ones and ALL RC will have the green light from Treasury, and if nothing changes, it should have been sent tonight. What about notifications? To T4B? So, including the Admirals groups, so here's the thing: those of us in T4B and A, should be notified tonight or tomorrow. And the exchanges could begin tomorrow and/or Thursday. We won't know until we receive the emails.

Also, the SS servers have been down for the last five days and we believe it's to connect to Starlink, which may or may not include that increase in SS, so the good news is that they were down after last Wednesday, and they were down for five days and they should be back up and running tonight for payments tomorrow September 11th so we have a chance and ALL of this could start on September 11th so everyone who is aware and KNOWS it would be a very interesting time . 


So there's a good chance that this starts tomorrow and the trades happen on or before Thursday and that whatever information Bruce has for us tonight, other than talking now about Sue and that GW PACKAGE, he's really happy with all the information. information we have received from Bruce tonight; I'm sure you'll thank your entire team:

 Sue, Bob, GCK, Pastor Scott, Jeannie, Larry, and of course all the faithful listeners around the world. And since this sounds like that again, IT COULD BE THE LAST BIG REGULAR CALL. I'm sure you will be praying the call, with a very special prayer, so please join Bruce in that prayer, because as always, our prayers are so powerful and so important that we all join together to let our hearts and prayers be seen by Heaven.

Bruce is just saying that at RC Zim Holders we will ONLY get a new satellite phone, and the mistake is that we also thought we would get a laptop and apparently now that won't be a given, just the phone.

Gem Finch, [09/11/2024 12:35 PM]

The cleanup continues throughout the country so there should be no problems with the uprisings and regarding NESARA and Gesara, the latest information was that that would be about a week to a week and a half from now. So, all the rest and recovery and the Debt Jubilee, which are part of NESARA and Gesara, so everyone is covered.

TRANSLATION IN SPANISH

SOLO INTEL

*¿DÓNDE ESTAMOS AHORA?*

Gem Finch, [09/11/2024 12:35 PM]


En lo que respecta a la información, había estado tranquilo y luego se abrió más ayer y hoy y, en base a esta información, en primer lugar, no hemos hablado demasiado de Irak; sabíamos que todas las nuevas tasas aparecieron en las pantallas el domingo por la noche después de estar cerradas y esperábamos que todas las nuevas tasas se completaran; y, por lo general, no las veremos hasta el lunes, pero el lunes escuchamos que teníamos todas las nuevas tasas en todas las monedas en los bancos; pero hoy no las vimos en las pantallas de RC y Bruce cree que sabe por qué, porque las tasas en las pantallas de los bancos no son tan altas como las de RC y lo sabemos y cuando tanto el banco como RC tienen tasas, podemos ver; se ha demostrado que las de RC son más altas que los bancos; de hecho, el dinar era 3 veces más alto y el dong 2 veces más alto y creo que es solo porque no querían que las altas tasas fueran


visibles. Continuando con Irak, el CBI desaparecerá y el SBI Sovereign Bank of Iraq y eso podría suceder mañana. No sabemos nada sobre el sitio en sí, pero pudimos confirmar una reunión el domingo entre Alak y varios otros y estaban determinando y confirmando la tasa que sería la tasa SBI y que sería la tasa internacional.


 La idea de los bancos soberanos es realmente buena, ya que los bancos centrales están desapareciendo. En los EE. UU., ahora es el Tesoro y cerca de Reno, Nevada, en una reserva india que es segura por ahora. Todas esas son muy buenas noticias y para Irak tener esa tasa y posiblemente verla mañana. 


Además, el dinar iraquí se comercializará en la ISX, también en Forex, posiblemente con una nueva tasa y en el propio sitio SBI. La tasa contractual es extremadamente alta y es la misma que la tasa de venta de un barril de petróleo, por lo que esto es bueno y, por supuesto, está sujeto a cambios y nos ofrecerán a los que tenemos dinares la tasa contractual para el dinar. 


¿En qué situación nos encontramos con el tiempo? Una persona conocida en la comunidad dice que es muy posible que sea mañana o jueves, y eso es una muy buena noticia. La otra información es que el líder del RC habría recibido un correo electrónico de una persona determinada de TODO el RC al este del río Big River y este líder tenía que enviar esos correos electrónicos. Eso no significa que sean los únicos y TODO el RC tendrá luz verde del Tesoro, y si nada cambia, debería haberse enviado esta noche. ¿Qué pasa con las notificaciones? ¿A T4B? Entonces, incluidos los grupos de Admirals, así que aquí está la cuestión: aquellos de nosotros en T4B y A, deberíamos ser notificados esta noche o mañana. Y los intercambios podrían comenzar mañana y/o el jueves. No lo sabremos hasta que recibamos los correos electrónicos. 


Además, los servidores de SS estuvieron inactivos durante los últimos cinco días y creemos que es para conectarnos a Starlink, lo que puede incluir o no ese aumento en SS, así que la buena noticia es que estuvieron inactivos después del miércoles pasado, 


y estuvieron inactivos durante cinco días y deberían volver a funcionar esta noche para los pagos mañana 11 de septiembre, por lo que tenemos la posibilidad y TODO esto podría comenzar el 11 de septiembre, así que todos los que están al tanto y SABEN que sería un momento muy interesante. 


Por lo tanto, existe una gran posibilidad de que esto comience mañana y los intercambios el jueves o antes y que toda la información que Bruce tiene para nosotros esta noche, aparte de hablar ahora sobre Sue y ese PAQUETE GW, esté realmente feliz con toda la información que hemos recibido de Bruce esta noche; estoy seguro de que agradecerá a todo su equipo: Sue, Bob, GCK, el pastor Scott, Jeannie, Larry y, por supuesto, a todos los fieles oyentes de todo el mundo. Y como esto suena de nuevo así, 


PODRÍA SER EL ÚLTIMO GRAN LLAMADO REGULAR. Estoy seguro de que estará rezando el llamado, con una oración muy especial, así que por favor, únanse a Bruce en esa oración, porque como siempre, nuestras oraciones son tan poderosas y tan importantes que todos nos unimos para dejar que nuestros corazones y oraciones sean vistos por el Cielo. 


Bruce solo está diciendo que en el RC Zim Holders SOLO recibiremos un nuevo teléfono satelital, y el error es que también pensamos que recibiríamos una computadora portátil y, aparentemente, ahora eso no será un hecho, solo el teléfono.

Gem Finch, [09/11/2024 12:35 PM]

La limpieza continúa en todo el país, por lo que no debería haber problemas con los levantamientos y con respecto a Nesara y Gesara, la última información fue que eso sería en aproximadamente una semana a una semana y media a partir de ahora. Entonces, todo el descanso y la recuperación y el Jubileo de la deuda, que son parte de Nesara y Gesara, por lo que todo el mundo está cubierto.


DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: The Dual Exchange Rate System in Iraq and Its Connection to Corruption, 11 SEPT

 The Dual Exchange Rate System in Iraq and Its Connection to Corruption

Iraq's dual exchange rate system, characterized by an official rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and a parallel market rate, has been a significant factor in the country's ongoing economic challenges.  This system creates a fertile ground for corruption, as the disparity between the two rates can be exploited for personal gain, often by those with political connections or access to privileged information.

The dual exchange rate system operates in a way that allows individuals or entities with access to the official rate to buy US dollars at a cheaper price and then sell them at the higher market rate, pocketing the difference.  This arbitrage opportunity, exacerbated by the volatility and depreciation of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD), has become a breeding ground for illicit activities, including money laundering, smuggling, and embezzlement.

Corruption in the Dual Rate System

Access to the Official Rate

Individuals and companies with connections to the government or the CBI often gain preferential access to the official exchange rate. This access can be used to acquire US dollars at the lower official rate and then sell them on the parallel market at a higher rate, a practice known as "dollar flipping".   The significant markup between the two rates can result in substantial profits, often at the expense of the Iraqi economy and the public.

Smuggling and Illicit Transactions

The dual rate system has also facilitated the smuggling of dollars out of Iraq, particularly to neighboring countries like Iran, to avoid sanctions or for other illicit purposes.  This activity not only depletes Iraq's foreign currency reserves but also contributes to the volatility of the IQD and undermines the effectiveness of the government's anti-corruption efforts.

Embezzlement and Misuse of Public Funds

The depreciation of the IQD following the implementation of global procedural requirements for cross-border payments by the CBI in mid-November 2022 led to a significant supply-demand mismatch for US dollars, causing the market price of the IQD to depreciate.  This situation was further exacerbated by the embezzlement of 3.7 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $2.5 billion) from the General Commission of Taxes’ bank accounts, illustrating how corruption and mismanagement of public funds can be closely tied to the dual exchange rate system.

Anti-Corruption Efforts and the Dual Rate System

The Iraqi government and the CBI have introduced a series of measures aimed at creating domestic demand for the IQD and accelerating the adoption of banking in the Iraqi economy.  These measures are crucial steps toward de-dollarization and reducing the dominance of cash transactions that facilitate corruption. However, given the entrenched nature of corruption within Iraq's economic and political systems, the full effectiveness of these reforms is likely to take several years to materialize.

Conclusion

Iraq's dual exchange rate system has become a significant enabler of corruption, providing opportunities for those with access to the official rate to benefit at the expense of the broader economy and society. Addressing this issue requires not only economic reforms but also a robust anti-corruption strategy that targets the root causes of corruption within Iraq's political and economic structures.


Iraq's Dual Exchange Rate: A Corruption Hotbed

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Understanding Iraq's Exchange Rate and Current Account Balance in 2024, 11 SEPT

 Understanding Iraq's Exchange Rate and Current Account Balance in 2024

In the realm of economics, the external value of a currency is significantly influenced by the balance or surplus in the current account of the balance of payments relative to the gross domestic product (GDP).  As of September 11, 2024, Iraq's economic landscape is characterized by a dual exchange rate system and a current account balance that has been fluctuating due to various economic and geopolitical factors. 

Iraq's Dual Exchange Rate System

Iraq operates with two exchange rates: the official rate and the market rate.

As of 2024, the official exchange rate stands at approximately 1,310 Iraqi dinars per US dollar, while the market rate is higher, around 1,460 dinars per dollar, marking a 12% gap between the two.  This dual rate system was established in response to the fiscal crisis of 2020 and the subsequent devaluation of the dinar by 23%. In February 2023, the dinar was revalued, increasing its value to 1,310 per dollar from 1,450, benefiting importers but negatively impacting exporters of non-oil goods. 

Impact of Dual Exchange Rates

The existence of two exchange rates has several negative impacts on Iraq's economy. It disrupts existing contracts, discourages trade and investment, both domestically and internationally, and complicates fiscal policy. Moreover, it fosters corruption by allowing individuals to profit from the difference between the official and market rates. 

Current Account Balance

The current account balance of Iraq has been subject to significant changes over recent years. In 2021 and 2022, high hydrocarbon prices generated a large current account surplus. However, in 2023, oil prices began to decline, leading to a projected move into deficit in 2024 due to the decrease in oil exports and the increase in import volumes to meet the rise in private consumption and the need for capital goods.  

Factors Influencing Current Account

The current account deficit in 2024 is influenced by the OPEC decision to maintain production cuts, Iraq being the second-largest producer, along with oil prices moderated by a sluggish global economy and the revaluation of the dinar in February 2023. 

Economic Outlook

Iraq's economic activity in 2024 is projected to remain moderate. The growth rate is expected to be driven by investment projects, particularly those related to infrastructure and reconstruction, as well as by significant current public spending, such as raising the minimum wage, which will support private consumption. Inflation is anticipated to return to a moderate level due to easing global food prices and the revaluation of the dinar, which should limit imported inflation. 

Conclusion

Iraq's economic situation in 2024 is a reflection of its dual exchange rate system and the challenges it faces in maintaining a stable current account balance. The country's reliance on oil exports and its efforts to diversify its economy will continue to be key factors in shaping its economic future.

Citizen and exchange rate, 11 SEPT

Bashir Khazal

 In economics, the external value of a currency lies in the presence of a balance or surplus in the current account of the balance of payments relative to the gross domestic product, which should indicate a stable state at a minimum, not less than 4 percent annually.

 To achieve this goal, it is necessary to rely on a sustainable increase in the annual growth rate of the gross domestic product, provided that exports exceed imports, within the country’s trade balance.

In the past, the country had the capacity to export goods and services more than it imported, which strengthened the value of the national currency, especially the external value of the currency itself, during those years, especially in the early seventies, and the economy indicated a positive state, in addition to the availability of foreign reserves that support the main buffer against potential external factors and their effects on the overall economic situation.

 In the current economic system, currency prices are determined globally in two main ways, namely floating and fixed prices and through local and international factors that control the strength of the currency in supply and demand, interest rates, inflation and growth in the local economy, the trade balance and other influences, but the strength of the national currency is linked to its external value, specifically the exchange rate, as the external value of money is directly linked to the stability of the current account of the balance of payments, especially in the long term, in addition to the stability of foreign reserves in the central bank of the country, which strengthens the strength of the Iraqi dinar and the stability of the exchange rate.

On the other hand, the value and stability of the currency are linked to the internal value of the national currency itself. Just as we talk about the stability of the external value of the currency in the exchange rate and its exchange power with other currencies, the internal value of the currency is the other side of the stability Currency and its strength, here the value of the national currency is directly linked to the general price level, which means the strength of goods and services expressed in money. There is a correlation between price stability and the value of the national currency, and this requires the availability of a wise monetary policy, undertaken by central banks that make the growth in the money supply commensurate with the growth in the gross domestic product or national income.

The quantitative theory of money is based on the principle of the neutrality of money, which explains that the cause of inflation in the long term is money itself, as the growth in the money supply in a way that is not commensurate with the growth in the gross domestic product leads to either inflation or contraction in the growth of the general price level

If the amount of money in the economy increases, and unless there is a parallel increase in economic output, this will lead to an increase in the general price level, and a loss of control over exchange rates, even if the state sets the exchange rate in a way that is different from what is sold in the market.

The best evidence of this is that the exchange rate in most Iraqi markets is still fluctuating between 149-150 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 US dollars, while the government exchange rate is 132 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars. American, but it did not bring any significant benefit to the citizen, but rather only speculators, brokers, traders and some companies profited from the price difference.  LINK


BRUCE HIGHLIGHTS, 11 SEPT

 Tues. 10 Sept. 2024 Bruce

  • All new rates came up on the screens Sunday night 8 Sept. 2024. Monday we had all new rates on all currencies at the banks – but today we didn’t see them on RC screens. This is because bank screen rates are not as high as at the Redemption Centers. The Dinar was 3 x time higher at the Redemption Center and the Dong was 2 x higher and I think it’s just because they didn’t want the high rates visible.
  • The Iraqi Dinar is to be traded on the ISX also on the Forex possibly with a new rate and the SBI site itself. The Dinar Contract rate is extremely high and is the same as the rate of selling a barrel of oil. They will offer Tier4b the Contract Rate at Redemption Centers.
  • One person known in the community is saying it’s highly possibly the RV will happen tomorrow or Thursday.
  • A Redemption Center Leader was to have received an email from a certain person who was over ALL the Redemption Centers East of the Big River and this leader had to get those emails out. All the Redemption Centers will have that green light from Treasury at the same time.
  • Those of us in Tier4b (the Internet Group) should be notified either tonight overnight tonight or tomorrow, with exchanges that could start tomorrow and/or Thursday. We won’t know till we get the emails.
  • Only Zim Holders will be getting the new StarLink Satellite phone at their appointments.
  • The servers for Social Security payments have been down for the last five days. We believe it’s to connect to Starlink  – which may or may not include that increase in SS. They should come back up tonight for payments tomorrow on 9**1
  • So we have the possibility and this might well ALL get started on 9**1. All of you who are in the know and KNOW that would be very interesting timing. 

DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: Central Bank's Efforts to Strengthen the Iraqi Dinar Value in 2024, 11 SEPT

Central Bank's Efforts to Strengthen the Iraqi Dinar Value in 2024

In 2024, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has embarked on a series of measures to bolster the value of the Iraqi dinar (IQD) Recognizing the importance of a stable currency for economic growth and financial stability, the CBI's initiatives are part of a broader strategy to enhance the Iraqi economy and improve living standards.

Economic Rebound and Inflation Control

Following the fiscal expansion starting in 2023, the Iraqi economy has experienced a strong recovery in its non-oil sector.  This has been supported by domestic stability, improved conditions, and the implementation of Iraq’s first three-year budget. Inflation has also declined to 4 percent by the end of 2023, partly due to a currency revaluation in February 2023, as well as the normalization in trade finance. 

Fiscal and External Challenges

However, the ongoing fiscal expansion has also led to imbalances, with concerns over the large fiscal expansion and lower oil prices. The CBI is aware that without policy adjustment, there is a high risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress and potential external stability risks. 

Currency Issuance and Dollar Supply

The amount of dinars circulating outside banks has been increasing daily, reaching 93.1 trillion dinars by the end of December 2023.  This has raised questions about the value of dinars in the market, especially if oil prices remain unfavorable and do not support the dollar inflow that traditionally underpins the dinar issuance. 

Controlling Dollar Usage

In an effort to eliminate the use of the US dollar in the local market, Iraq's measures have achieved relative success in controlling foreign currency.  The exchange rate of the dollar has been stabilized between 1,470 to 1,450 dinars per dollar, down from an unprecedented level of 1,700 dinars per dollar in 2023. 

Coordination with the Finance Committee

The CBI has been in close coordination with the Finance Committee to enhance the value of the Iraqi dinar.  Discussions have focused on monetary policy, methods to increase the dinar's value, stabilizing the market, and addressing deficits. 

Future Plans and International Standards

The CBI has also discussed future plans to improve banking institutions, expand relations with international banks, and restructure the banking sector.   Emphasis has been placed on transitioning towards electronic payments and the potential amendment of the Central Bank law to align with international standards. 

Conclusion

The CBI's efforts to strengthen the Iraqi dinar in 2024 involve a multi-faceted approach, including fiscal policy adjustments, controlling the dollar supply, and aligning with international banking standards. These measures aim to create a stable and robust economy, enhancing the value of the dinar for the benefit of Iraq and its citizens.



CHELLA CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES, 22 DEC

CHELLA CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES Summary CH Smith hosts a live news update on Iraq, covering the stock exchange, banking reforms, and tourism deve...