“It’s coming. I have a lot of intel that I can’t tell you about. Keep the faith. It’s coming by the end of the year.”
“Get ready everyone we are ready. All protocols have been met and everything is ready to go. We just have to wait for the GO sign.
I’m expecting the 1 or the 2nd of January. I’ve had many on a conference call and they all said that we are about to go anytime right now and many are pointing to the 1st and 2nd of January 2025. Not long to go guys. God bless.”
Expert: Central Bank decisions threaten banking sector and stability of national economy
Researcher and specialist in financial and banking affairs, Mustafa Hantoush, confirmed today, Monday, that the decisions of the Central Bank threaten the banking sector and the stability of the national economy.
Hantoush said in a statement to Al-Maalouma Agency that "the recent decisions of the Central Bank of Iraq, which included stopping the financial transfer platform (FITR) and handing over the management of the Iraqi dollar to four banks owned by investors, some of which belong to countries such as Jordan and the Gulf, constitute serious repercussions.”
He pointed out that "these policies may lead to the collapse of the Iraqi banking system and the exacerbation of economic crises, noting that more than 100,000 jobs in the private banking sector are threatened with loss in favor of foreign banks, which constitutes a major blow to banking autonomy.”
He explained that "the monopoly of the dollar by these banks will lead to difficulty in stabilizing the exchange rate and increasing volatility, which will exacerbate the economic situation and weaken competition in the banking sector."
As part of the solutions, Hantoush called for "extending the work of the money transfer platform in coordination with the new US administration, and enabling Iraqi banks to open dollar accounts in international banks such as Citibank and JP Morgan, as is the case in the countries of the region."
He also stressed the "importance of transparency and announcing the mechanisms of cooperation with Ernst & Young regarding transfers in other currencies such as the euro, yuan and dirham, in addition to revealing the results of the contract with Oliver Wyman regarding the status of the 28 sanctioned Iraqi banks."
At the end of his statements, Hantoush called for “addressing the central banks of countries such as Turkey, the Emirates, China and India to open branches of Iraqi banks in those countries, which would contribute to transforming the banking relationship from remittances to a direct commercial partnership. link
In a recent statement, the Central Bank of Iraq announced a series of positive financial indicators for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a robust growth trajectory compared to the same quarter in 2022 and 2023. This growth is attributed to the successful monetary policies implemented throughout 2024.
Key highlights include a 4.2% increase in total bank deposits, rising to 1,276 trillion Dinars, and an impressive 11.6% growth in cash credit from public banks, reaching 792.7 trillion Dinars.
Private banks outperformed with a 14% rise in deposits and a 15.1% increase in cash credit, reflecting growing confidence among economic units in the private banking sector. The private sector also saw a 3% increase in deposits and an 8.6% increase in cash credit, signifying a strong trust in banking institutions.
The money supply metrics indicated a healthy economy, with narrow money growing by 4.1% and broad money by 3.3%. Significantly, gold reserves surged by 57%, bolstering the Central Bank’s financial standing.
Furthermore, Iraq’s inflation rates remain relatively low, with figures recorded at 3.7% and 3.1% for August and September 2024, respectively, pointing towards price stability and effective monetary management.
Highlights
📈 Total Deposits Growth: Total deposits in Iraqi banks rose by 4.2%, reaching 1,276 trillion Dinars in Q3 2024, up from 122.4 trillion Dinars in Q3 2023.
💰 Public Bank Cash Credit Surge: Cash credit granted by public banks grew by 11.6%, totaling 792.7 trillion Dinars in Q3 2024, compared to 65.1 trillion Dinars in the previous year.
🏦 Private Bank Performance: Deposits in private banks increased by 14%, amounting to 18.7 trillion Dinars, and cash credit saw a 15.1% rise, highlighting the sector’s strength.
📊 Private Sector Confidence: Private sector deposits grew by 3%, totaling 56.1 trillion Dinars, and cash credits rose by 8.6%, indicating enhanced trust in banking institutions.
💵 Money Supply Indicators: The narrow money supply grew by 4.1% to 158.3 trillion Dinars, while broad money supply rose by 3.3% to 179.1 trillion Dinars, reflecting economic stability.
🪙 Significant Gold Reserves Increase: Gold reserves increased by 57%, amounting to 16.8 trillion Dinars, strengthening the Central Bank’s financial position.
📉 Low Inflation Rates: Annual inflation rates recorded at 3.7% and 3.1% for August and September 2024, respectively, demonstrating effective monetary policy and price stability.
Key Insights
📈 Growth in Deposits Signifies Economic Trust: The 4.2% growth in total bank deposits reflects a growing confidence among consumers and businesses in the Iraqi banking system. This increase indicates that individuals and companies are saving more, which is crucial for the financial health of the banking sector and the broader economy. A stable deposit base enhances banks’ ability to lend, thus fostering economic growth.
💹 Public and Private Bank Performance as Economic Indicators: The substantial growth in cash credit from both public (11.6%) and private banks (15.1%) indicates an upward trend in lending activities, which can stimulate investment and consumption. The disparity in growth rates also highlights the competitive nature of the banking sector, with private banks gaining a larger share of the credit market.
💼 Private Sector’s Confidence in Banks: The 3% growth in private sector deposits, alongside an 8.6% increase in cash credit, underscores an evolving trust in private banking institutions. This trend can lead to enhanced business operations as companies feel more secure in their financial dealings, fostering innovation and expansion.
💵 Money Supply Growth as a Stability Indicator: The increases in narrow and broad money supply (4.1% and 3.3% respectively) are indicative of a stable economic environment. A growing money supply can facilitate increased spending and investment, which are essential for economic expansion. However, it’s crucial to monitor the pace of this growth to prevent potential inflationary pressures.
🏆 Gold Reserves as a Financial Safety Net: The remarkable 57% growth in gold reserves signifies the Central Bank’s commitment to maintaining a robust financial buffer. Gold serves as a hedge against economic volatility and currency fluctuations, enhancing the overall stability of the Iraqi financial system. This increase may also bolster investor confidence in the Central Bank’s management of the national economy.
📊 Controlled Inflation as a Success Metric: The reported inflation rates of 3.7% and 3.1% for August and September 2024 are low compared to regional standards, suggesting that the monetary policies in place are effectively controlling price levels. This stability is fundamental for economic growth, as businesses and consumers can plan their finances with greater certainty.
🔄 Monetary Policy Effectiveness: The overall positive trends in bank deposits, cash credit, and inflation rates underscore the effectiveness of the monetary policies adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq. These policies seem to be successfully fostering a conducive environment for economic growth and stability, which is essential for attracting both domestic and foreign investments.
In summary, the Central Bank of Iraq’s recent report highlights a period of significant financial growth and stability, suggesting a favorable economic outlook for the country. The encouraging trends in banking metrics, combined with low inflation rates and increasing gold reserves, paint a picture of a resilient economy navigating through challenges with a strategic monetary policy approach.
Uncertainty over the 2025 budget.. Parliament: We don't know anything about it yet
Member of Parliament Ahmed Al-Sharmani explained Thursday (December 26, 2024), that Parliament does not know anything about the 2025 budget schedules, suggesting that the government is deliberately delaying sending it.
Al-Sharmani said in an interview with "Baghdad Today", "According to the Financial Management Law, the budget or its schedules must reach the House of Representatives at the end of the month (10) of each year, and any delay in doing so is considered a legal violation, especially since this violation has been repeated for many years."
He explained that "the 2025 budget tables are not known to the House of Representatives so far, and the delay in sending them is a violation, and there is no specific date for sending those tables.
"
Al-Sharmani added, "Perhaps the government will link sending the tables with amending the law proposed in Parliament, and this will delay sending the tables for a long time due to disagreements over the origin of the amendment."
MP Jawad Al-Yassari confirmed on December 19, 2024, that political differences over amending the budget law will delay voting on the 2025 budget schedules, indicating that “the Iraqi government is waiting for Parliament to amend the budget law, so that it can send it the schedules for 2025 according to the amendments.”
It is noteworthy that Member of Parliament Mustafa Al-Karaawi announced on December 8, 2024, the postponement of the second reading of the amendment to the General Budget Law until after the legislative holiday. link
This is extremely important you understand this. It is projected at the end of this month on the 31st that the auctions will come to an end.
Therefor the next day the citizens of Iraq will be looking for something to use. They will demand a dollar because that's all they know and they will be rejected.
The demand for the dollar will increase. The black market value will increase for the dollar (which is not official, which has no meaning, no value to the CBI).
But for at least maybe until the 7th. Why? Because on the 7th Sudani has ordered parliament to finish and sign off everything on the budget. If not he'll take care of it...One week of bubble. That makes sense. I like it.
In numbers.. The decline in the value of the Iraqi dinar
Today, Friday (December 27, 2024), the economic expert, Manar Al-Abidi, determined how much the Iraqi dinar has lost in value.
Al-Obaidi explained in a tweet followed by "Baghdad Today" that "the value of any currency is determined based on two basic factors, which are the amount of currency issued, which is the total cash pumped by the central bank, and the size of reserves, which includes foreign currencies, investments, and gold held by the central bank."
He explained that "the situation at the end of 2023, the amount of currency issued reached 101 trillion dinars, and the value of official reserves reached 145 trillion Iraqi dinars."
Al-Obaidi added, "As for the situation at the end of 2024, the amount of currency issued remained at the same level of 101 trillion Iraqi dinars, and the value of official reserves decreased to 139.7 trillion Iraqi dinars."
He pointed out,
"The impact on the value of the Iraqi dinar, despite the stability of the issued monetary mass, the decrease in the value of official reserves by 5.3 trillion Iraqi dinars led to a decline in the purchasing power of the dinar, and as a result of this decrease in reserves, the actual value of the Iraqi dinar decreased by 5.3%."
Al-Ubaidi pointed out that "the continued decline in the actual value of the dinar will lead at some point to an increase in inflation as a result of the decline in the strength of the dinar compared to reserves alone. All this while the average price of Iraqi oil was high, so how will things turn out in the event of a decline in oil prices?" link
In this video, the speaker discusses significant developments in Iraq’s financial and economic landscape, emphasizing the role of digital transformation and demographic advantages in fostering economic growth.
The Parliamentary Finance Committee has confirmed that financial digital transformation is pivotal in eliminating corruption and money laundering, indicating a shift towards blockchain technologies.
The speaker highlights the importance of automating customs procedures and enhancing the banking system to ensure financial sustainability and diversification of the economy.
Moreover, the demographic profile of Iraq, characterized by a young population, presents an opportunity to become a global economic power, especially with support from the United States.
The speaker stresses the need for Iraqi leadership to effectively utilize this demographic gift to prevent unemployment and instability.
The video also touches on the challenges posed by the parallel market for dollars and the implications of the Central Bank of Iraq’s new policies on currency issuance and banking practices. Overall, the discussion underscores the importance of adapting to digital financial systems and the potential for Iraq to emerge as a significant player on the global economic stage.
Highlights
🌐 Digital Transformation: The Parliamentary Finance Committee confirms that financial digital transformation can eliminate corruption and money laundering in Iraq.
🚀 Economic Paradigm Shift: The push for automation in customs and banking systems aims to secure financial sustainability and job opportunities.
👶 Demographic Advantage: With 60% of the population being young, Iraq is positioned to leverage this demographic for economic growth.
🤝 U.S. Support: The United States is set to play a crucial role in helping Iraq exploit its demographic potential for investment and economic development.
📈 Rising Currency Expectations: Anticipations of a rise in the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market signal ongoing confusion among businesses.
💳
New Banking Policies: The Central Bank of Iraq is shifting from dollar auctions to a currency window, aiming to stabilize the economy.
🎉 Issuance Celebration: The Central Bank’s annual celebration of its issuance and treasury department hints at significant plans for currency management and economic strategy.
Key Insights
🌍 Global Digitalization Trends: The speaker emphasizes that Iraq is not alone in its digital transformation efforts; various countries are embracing blockchain and other technologies to combat corruption and promote transparency. This trend aligns with a global push towards digital economies, demonstrating that Iraq’s initiatives are part of a broader movement.
🔄 Sustainable Economic Growth: The speaker highlights the necessity of transitioning towards a sustainable economic model through digital financial systems. The automation of customs and banking serves not only to enhance efficiency but also to mitigate corruption—a fundamental issue that has plagued Iraq for years. This transformation could lead to increased foreign investment and greater economic stability.
👩👧👦 Youth as Economic Drivers: With a significant portion of the Iraqi population being young, there is a pressing need for policies that encourage entrepreneurship and job creation. The speaker draws parallels with other countries that have successfully harnessed their youth demographic to achieve economic miracles. This potential must be tapped into through effective governance and strategic investments.
🇺🇸 Strategic Partnerships: The video outlines the critical role of U.S. support in Iraq’s economic development. It indicates that Washington’s backing will be essential for implementing reforms and attracting foreign investments. The speaker suggests that the U.S. has vested interests in ensuring Iraq’s stability and growth, which could foster a more favorable investment climate.
💵 Implications of Currency Changes: The discussion around the Central Bank of Iraq’s policy changes—specifically the transition from dollar auctions to a currency window—highlights the complexities of currency management. The speaker indicates that this shift could lead to a more stable economy by reducing reliance on the parallel market, which has previously been a source of volatility.
⚖️ Risks of Poor Management: The speaker warns that failing to properly invest in Iraq’s demographic advantages could lead to dire consequences, including high unemployment and political instability. This serves as a call to action for Iraqi leaders to prioritize economic reforms and effectively manage their resources to capitalize on the opportunities presented by a youthful population.
🎊 Cultural Shifts in Banking: The celebration of the Central Bank of Iraq’s issuance and treasury department underscores a cultural shift towards recognizing the importance of currency management and economic strategy. This event reflects a growing understanding of the role of the banking system in fostering economic growth, signifying a maturation of Iraq’s financial institutions.
Overall, the insights drawn from the video suggest a pivotal moment for Iraq as it navigates through challenges and opportunities in its economic landscape. The emphasis on digital transformation, youth empowerment, and strategic partnerships highlights the multifaceted approach required to achieve sustainable growth and stability.
124 Trillion Dinars Iraq's Revenues In 10 Months And An Expert Warns Of "Oil"
2024-12-29 Shafaq News/ The Iraqi Ministry of Finance revealed on Sunday that the size of revenues in the federal budget during ten months exceeded 124 trillion dinars, while an economic expert considered that the "excessive" dependence on oil may expose the country to economic fluctuations.
Shafaq News Agency followed the data and tables issued by the Ministry of Finance in December of this year for ten months starting from January until October of the current fiscal year, which showed that the revenues from oil decreased slightly to 88%, but it still constitutes the main resource for the general budget, indicating that the rentier economy is the basis of the country's budget.
The financial tables indicated that the total revenues for ten months of the current year amounted to 124 trillion, 659 billion, 47 million, 830 thousand, and 362 dinars, indicating that the total advances amounted to 18 trillion, 74 billion, 75 million, 887 thousand, and 751 dinars.
According to the tables, oil revenues amounted to 110 trillion, 220 billion, 945 million, and 501 thousand dinars, which constitute 88% of the general budget, while non-oil revenues amounted to 14 trillion, 438 billion, 778 million, and 884 thousand dinars, which constitute 12% of Iraq’s general budget.
For his part, economic expert Mohammed Al-Hasani said in an interview with Shafak News Agency, "This excessive reliance on oil will expose the country to macroeconomic fluctuations, and will limit any opportunity to develop policies to confront expected fluctuations."
He added, "Iraq needs to raise growth rates in the non-oil sector in order to absorb the shocks of oil prices when they decline," indicating that "in order to reduce dependence on oil, a major adjustment of the public financial situation is required based on increasing non-oil revenues, reducing current spending, and reviewing the customs tariff structure."
In March 2021, the Prime Minister's advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that the reasons for the economy remaining rentier are due to the wars and the imposition of an economic blockade on Iraq during the past era and the political conflicts we are witnessing today, which led to the dispersion of economic resources.
The continued reliance of the Iraqi state on oil as the sole source of the general budget puts Iraq at risk from global crises that occur from time to time due to the impact of oil, which makes the country turn every time to cover the deficit through borrowing from abroad or domestically, which thus indicates the inability to manage the state’s funds effectively, and the inability to find alternative financing solutions. LINK
Economist: The Decrease In The Actual Value Of The Dinar Will Lead To Inflation
12/28/2024 Economist: Economic expert, Munar Al-Abidi, confirmed that “the value of any currency is determined based on two basic factors: the amount of currency issued, which is the total cash pumped by the central bank, and the size of reserves, which includes foreign currencies, investments, and gold held by the central bank.”
Al-Obaidi said in a tweet seen by (Al-Masry - Today, Saturday), that “at the end of 2023, the amount of currency issued reached 101 trillion dinars, and the value of official reserves reached 145 trillion Iraqi dinars.”
He added, "As for the situation at the end of 2024, the amount of currency issued remained at the same level of 101 trillion Iraqi dinars, and the value of official reserves decreased to 139.7 trillion Iraqi dinars."
He pointed out that "the continued decline in the actual value of the dinar will lead at some point to an increase in inflation as a result of the decline in the strength of the dinar compared to reserves alone. All this while the average price of Iraqi oil was high, so how will things turn out in the event of a decline in oil prices?"
He continued, "The impact on the value of the Iraqi dinar, despite the stability of the issued monetary mass, the decrease in the value of official reserves by 5.3 trillion Iraqi dinars led to a decline in the purchasing power of the dinar, and as a result of this decrease in reserves, the actual value of the Iraqi dinar decreased by 5.3%." https://almasra.iq/113717/
Two articles from Iraq state that the auctions officially end today.
That is a great sign! Understand they can't operate at a program rate.
When the auctions stop they have no access to the US dollar. I'm not saying we'll see a rate today but we'll have to see one soon. My friend Raging patriot is a great study, and believes we'll definitely see it by the 7th.
IMF regulations allow them to hold it 3 days but they don't have to. Which will give them time to distribute the lower denominations.
Goodbye Dollar Auction.. Central Bank Announces The End Of 20 Years Of Billions And Suspicions
Maysoun Al Shaheen – 964 The matter has been settled.. Iraq will no longer offer its precious dollars in the controversial dollar auction, or what was called the foreign currency sales window and the electronic platform. After 20 years since the start of this procedure, Ammar Khalaf, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, confirmed in a statement to the 964 Network that the dollar platform has become closed in compliance with the date set by the governor to close it at the end of 2024.
Khalaf denied all rumors about the possibility of extending the platform’s work, and spoke with great positivity, reassuring the market and consumers that the overwhelming majority of traders have already adapted to the new system in which the Central Bank does not provide direct dollars to traders. But what will happen?!
The sale of the dollar was a mechanism adopted by the Iraqi government after 2003 during the era of Governor Sinan Al-Shabibi, for several goals mentioned in a study by the bank official, Dr. Walid Aidi Abdul Nabi , including controlling the exchange rate and raising the purchasing power of those with limited incomes, among others. It aims to provide hard currency to traders in order to finance their imports of goods from abroad, but the idea was later subject to much skepticism and suspicion, and the auction became one of the most frequently mentioned files in discussions about corruption, fictitious import invoices, and currency smuggling to neighboring countries, among others.
What is your opinion?
According to the new system after the window closes, traders will have to deposit their money in dinars in Iraqi banks that have entered into partnerships with foreign banks (called correspondent banks). These correspondent banks with American banks will undertake all verification and compliance procedures, while the Central Bank will only be tasked with strengthening the dollar balances in the accounts of banks that are able to pass all these procedures. Many experts believe that this step has relieved the Central Bank of responsibility for any potential manipulation of invoices or attempts to smuggle currency, and the Central Bank has thus protected itself from any potential American sanctions with their dangerous implications for the country’s economy.
Khalaf said, “The date for closing the platform is fixed, it will not change and will not be extended. The banks have been preparing since the beginning of this year when Governor Ali Al-Alaq announced his intention to close the platform.”
According to Khalaf, “transfers are made by strengthening the balances of Iraqi banks, and 97% of transfers are now made according to the new mechanism.
This will be noticeable during the first days of the new year, as the Central Bank’s transfers to banks that are operating at full capacity will not change by strengthening the balances with correspondent banks.”
However, he left the door open to the possibility of a very slight and ineffective decline in the Central Bank’s sales.
He pointed out that “the majority of banks in Iraq have correspondent banks and have been operating according to the new mechanism since the beginning of this year, and traders will not face any problem unless their money is in banks without correspondent banks.” https://964media.com/492488/
Didn’t I tell everyone years ago that Iraq is going to be a central hub for the middle east?
Let me correct myself in saying it is now a central hub only it is not yet fully geared up and running to its potential. Eighty-five docking stations for freight ships at the port of Faw and only five are now open.
Imagine when all eighty-five slips are operational? The amount of freight that will flow through this port of Faw.
FRANK26: "THE IMMINENT STOPPING OF THE AUCTIONS!!!"...........F26
Stopping the dollar selling platform will “confuse” the parallel market “more” coinciding with the Christmas holiday - Urgent
12/26/2024
Baghdad
Economic expert Nasser Al-Tamimi revealed, today, Thursday (December 26, 2024), the reason for the continued rise in the dollar exchange rate in local markets for days.
Al-Tamimi told Baghdad Today , “There are two main reasons behind the continued rise in the dollar exchange rate in local markets for days,” indicating that “the first reason is the imminent suspension of the platform’s work at the Central Bank, as this The matter has caused confusion in the market, especially among small traders, who have increased their demand for dollars from the parallel market.”
He added, "The other reason is the proximity of the New Year's celebrations, as there is a demand for the dollar in the parallel market for the purpose of travel as well as buying some goods," expecting "the rise to continue until the beginning of the new year, after which it may return to a gradual and slow decline.”
Economic expert Nasser Al-Tamimi warned, on Tuesday (December 17, 2024), of a rise in the dollar exchange rate in Iraq in the coming days.
Al-Tamimi told Baghdad Today, “There are real fears in the Iraqi market of the continued rise in the dollar exchange rate after the Central Bank of Iraq stopped working on the platform,” indicating that “this matter will constitute a shock, especially at The beginning of implementation of the decision and will lead to a rise in the dollar, to increase demand for it in the parallel market.”
He added that "after the platform is stopped, most traders, especially small ones, will depend on the parallel market to finance their foreign trade, while continuing to finance trade with Iran and Turkey in dollars, through illegal means," noting that "this is what will lead to the rise, and therefore practical steps must be taken to prevent this by the country's monetary authority, and urgently.”
The Central Bank of Iraq revealed on Wednesday (September 4, 2024) the mechanism for ending the electronic platform for foreign transfers, while indicating that the placement of foreign transfer operations and meeting requests for the dollar are on sound paths and consistent with international practices and standards.
