Tuesday, February 11, 2025

SANDY INGRAM CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES, 12 FEB

  SANDY INGRAM CC HIGHLIGHTS NOTES

Highlights

Summary

The video discusses the intricate and evolving dynamics of Iran’s nuclear program from the Obama administration through the Biden administration, highlighting how it became one of the most pressing foreign policy challenges for consecutive U.S. presidents.

 Beginning with the international community’s growing concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the early 2000s, the video outlines the imposition of economic sanctions, diplomatic efforts for negotiations, and the eventual signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. 

This deal aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for lifted sanctions, but it was met with significant opposition from various factions, including U.S. Republicans and Israeli leadership. 

The subsequent withdrawal of the U.S. from the JCPOA under President Trump marked a critical turning point, leading to increased tensions and military confrontations. President Biden’s administration has struggled to revive negotiations amid Iran’s escalating nuclear activities and internal unrest, notably highlighted by protests following the death of activist Masa Amini. 

The video concludes with a look at the current status of negotiations and the challenges both nations face, including Iran’s continued uranium enrichment and the implications for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy.

  • 🌍 Diplomatic Outreach: Obama initiated diplomatic efforts with Iran, seeking dialogue to address nuclear concerns.
  • ⚖️  Economic Sanctions: Severe sanctions were imposed on Iran, crippling its economy and leading to public dissent.
  • 🕊️ JCPOA Agreement: The 2015 nuclear deal represented a significant diplomatic achievement, temporarily freezing parts of Iran’s nuclear program.
  • ❌ Withdrawal Consequences: Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 escalated tensions and led to Iran resuming its nuclear activities.
  • 💣 Military Escalation: The assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani marked a critical point in U.S.-Iran relations, bringing both nations to the brink of war.
  • 📉 Stalled Negotiations: Biden’s efforts to revive the JCPOA face significant hurdles, including Iran’s insistence on guarantees against future U.S. withdrawal.
  • 🔍 Ongoing Challenges: High uranium enrichment levels and internal protests complicate diplomatic efforts and raise concerns over regional stability.

Key Insights

  • 🌐 Importance of Diplomacy: The video underscores the necessity of diplomatic channels in addressing nuclear proliferation. Obama’s initial outreach to Iran exemplified a strategic approach to preventing nuclear arms escalation. The failure of subsequent administrations to maintain open lines of communication illustrates the fragility of international diplomacy in the face of changing political landscapes.

  • 🔒 Economic Sanctions as a Tool: The use of economic sanctions against Iran effectively weakened its economy, which led to significant internal unrest and a demand for change. However, the sanctions also had the unintended effect of pushing Iran closer to its nuclear ambitions, as the government sought to assert national pride and autonomy in the face of external pressure.

  • 📜 JCPOA’s Significance: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a landmark achievement in non-proliferation efforts, representing a multilateral approach to a complex issue. However, the deal’s controversial nature reveals the deep divisions within U.S. politics and among international stakeholders regarding the best strategy for dealing with Iran.

  • ⚔️ Impact of Military Actions: The assassination of General Soleimani not only escalated military tensions but also reinforced Iran’s resolve to pursue its nuclear program. This incident highlights how military actions can have significant, often unpredictable, consequences on diplomatic relations and the overall security landscape.

  • 🚧 Biden’s Diplomatic Challenges: The Biden administration’s attempts to revive the JCPOA face myriad challenges, including Iran’s insistence on robust guarantees against U.S. withdrawal. This reflects a broader issue in international agreements where trust and commitment are continually tested by changing political leadership.

  • 📈 Iran’s Nuclear Progress: Iran’s continued uranium enrichment at alarming rates poses a direct threat to global security. The video emphasizes the urgency for the U.S. and its allies to explore alternative diplomatic avenues and economic measures to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as traditional negotiation methods have proven insufficient.

  • 🇮🇶 Iraq’s Strategic Role: The video briefly touches on the geopolitical implications of Iran’s nuclear program on Iraq, illustrating how regional dynamics complicate U.S. foreign policy. As a neighbor and trading partner of Iran, Iraq’s stability is crucial not only for its own sake but also in the broader context of U.S.-Iran relations.

The video encapsulates the tumultuous journey of U.S.-Iran relations, marked by attempts at diplomacy, economic sanctions, military confrontations, and the enduring challenge of navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. As tensions continue to simmer and negotiations remain stalled, the path forward for both nations will require innovative strategies and a commitment to dialogue amidst an ever-changing global context.

NADER : US TREASURY COMMENDS IRAQ'S CENTRAL BANK!! WOW!! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

 


Federal Court rules valid vote on three controversial laws, 12 FEB

 Federal Court rules valid vote on three controversial laws

The Federal Supreme Court in Iraq ruled the validity of the parliamentary session in which the vote was made to amend the three controversial laws (general amnesty, personal status, return of property to its owners) thus canceling the state order to suspend it.

The Federal Supreme Court announced the response of the appeal submitted by parliamentarians to amend the laws of general amnesty, personal status and the return of real estate to their owners, which was voted by the House of Representatives in its session on January 21, 2025.

The court also decided in its judicial hearing, which held publicly, on Tuesday, to “cancel the state order to suspend the operation of these laws.”

On Tuesday, February 4, 2025, the Federal Court issued a state order suspending the implementation of the three laws, which parliament recently voted on, namely personal status, general amnesty, and Kirkuk real estate.

The Supreme Judicial Council responded to the state order issued by the Federal Court, in a statement stating: “It is not permissible to stop the implementation of the law that is legislated by the Iraqi Council of Representatives before it is published in the Official Gazette, as well as proving its unconstitutionality.”

https://aljeebal.com/posts/3587

AJ: 🇮🇶 Iraq's key points from the S&P Global Ratings report on Iraq, 12 FEB

 AJ

🇮🇶 Iraq's key points from the S&P Global Ratings report on Iraq. We affirmed our 'B-/B' ratings on Iraq. The outlook is stable.

🇮🇶 Budget Expansion: Iraq passed a three-year expansionary budget in 2023, expected to increase general government debt. 🇮🇶 Spending Challenges: Despite the budget, historical under-spending and regional tensions, especially with upcoming parliamentary elections in 2025, could strain fiscal finances. 🇮🇶 Oil Dependency: Despite OPEC+ production cuts, Iraq's significant oil export volumes are expected to maintain external surpluses and foreign exchange reserves above $100 billion through 2025-2028. 🇮🇶 Credit Ratings: S&P Global Ratings affirmed Iraq's 'B-/B' ratings with a stable outlook on February 7, 2025, due to strong FX reserves offsetting political and institutional weaknesses. 🇮🇶 Rating Action: Affirmation: The long-term and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings remain at 'B-' and 'B', respectively, with a stable outlook. Transfer and Convertibility: The assessment remains at 'B-'. 🇮🇶 Outlook: Stable: Iraq's FX reserves are expected to exceed debt-servicing needs, balancing against significant political and institutional risks. 🇮🇶 Scenarios: -Downside: Possible downgrade if institutional weaknesses or sharp declines in oil prices or production impact fiscal or external positions. -Upside: An upgrade might occur with sustained economic growth, institutional reforms, or improved security conditions enhancing debt-servicing capacity. -We expect only partial implementation of the 2023-2025 multiyear expansionary budget due to capacity constraints tied to scaling-up non-oil capital expenditure. 🇮🇶 Rationale: -Fiscal Expansion: The budget deficit is projected to widen due to increased spending on public salaries and social welfare ahead of elections. -External Strength: Despite internal and regional issues, Iraq's external position remains strong due to oil revenues. -Political and Security Risks: Heightened by regional conflicts and domestic political dynamics, especially around the 2025 elections. 🇮🇶 Economic and Institutional Profile: Oil Production: Limited by OPEC+ quotas and pipeline issues but expected to recover. 🇮🇶 Flexibility and Performance: -Fiscal Deficits: Likely due to high public spending and oil price sensitivity. -Monetary Policy: Iraq's central bank has limited tools, with monetary financing playing a role in deficit management. -We expect the exchange rate will remain fixed at Iraqi dinar (IQD) 1,300 per U.S. dollar over the forecast period through 2027. 🇮🇶 Key Statistics: -Economic Indicators: Show growth volatility linked to oil but with forecasts for slight improvements over the next few years. -Fiscal Indicators: Reflect increasing debt levels and deficits. As FX reserves build and the government continues paying down foreign debt. -we forecast the economy's liquid external assets will exceed external debt by about 80% of current account payments over 2025-2028. -Monetary Indicators: Inflation is managed due to the dinar's peg to the USD, but banking sector stability is uncertain. -The CBI's implementation of various de-dollarization policies, including limiting all internal commercial and trade transactions to dinars as well as settling some trade in foreign currencies other than the dollar (such as the euro, UAE dirham, and Chinese renminbi). 🇮🇶Iraq has the world's fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves and is the third-largest oil exporter in OPEC+ after Saudi Arabia and Russia. Oil contributes more than 40% of GDP, 90% of government revenue, and 95% of goods export receipts. 🇮🇶The Iraq-Turkiye crude pipeline has yet to resume full operations. Sales volumes to about 22,000 bpd from about 450,000 bpd pre-dispute (about 10% of Iraq's production). 🇮🇶Despite its large hydrocarbon endowment and population, Iraq has relatively low GDP per capita, at an estimated $5,600 per citizen in 2025. Unemployment rate 14% 🇮🇶Iraq continues to depend heavily on Iran for its electricity and gas needs. 🇮🇶Nevertheless, a gradual ramp-up in oil production and stronger non-oil activity will support economic growth, which we forecast at 2.2% over 2025-2028. 🇮🇶The financial stability of domestic banks is uncertain, and we view financial sector risk as a moderate contingent liability for the government.  A restructuring of the banking sector to improve the stability and functioning of the financial system will require recapitalization, which, in our view, could entail significant costs for the government. Financial accounts audited to international standards are not available for many banks in Iraq, including state-owned Rasheed Bank and Rafidain Bank, the two largest banks (holding around 75% of financial system assets). These banks remain severely undercapitalized, according to the IMF. Private sector credit represents only about 10% of GDP. This, combined with its weak institutional framework, increases the risks to which the banking sector is exposed. Notwithstanding their financial underperformance, we expect these two banks will continue to be the main conduit for the government to fund itself via the CBI. Sources: Central Statistical Organization Iraq, World Bank and Central Bank of Iraq (economic indicators), IMF and Central Bank of Iraq (monetary indicators), IMF and Ministry of Finance (fiscal indicators), IMF and Bank for International Settlements (external indicators).
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REINALDO JC: The U.S. debt will be deleted by the REINSTATEMENT of Iraqi Dinar @DINARREVALUATION

 


Adviser to the Prime Minister: Iraqi-American relations are very good and there are no unfounded speculation

 Adviser to the Prime Minister: Iraqi-American relations are very good and there are no unfounded speculation

Financial Advisor to Prime Minister Mahar Mohammed Saleh stressed that the relations between Iraq and the United States of America are very good and distinguished, and work in a high-level diplomatic and economic framework.

Saleh pointed out to the {Euphrates News} agency that “the interests of the two friendly countries are moving in positive directions, especially in the field of economic, investment and trade cooperation.”

He explained that “what is raised by some parties regarding this relationship is among the fears, political concerns and speculations that have no basis, and they are related to the changes of the new administration in the United States and its correlationships with vast political geographies,” stressing that Iraq is not a party to it.

Ragheed

CRYPTO TRADER: Iraq recently implemented the automated customs system ,ASYCUDA & TIR SYSTEM, 12 FEB

 CRYPTO TRADER

#IQD Iraq recently implemented the automated customs system ,ASYCUDA and last week joined the TIR system for export by road. 

These two processes are steps towards their impending ascension to WTO which is supposed to be at the end of first quarter. 

They need a convertible currency for WTO . 

It's a matter of when not if it hits Forex no matter the rate. They need a IQD to be convertible. I do not speculate on date and rate.

They have filed for WTO once they meet to take up the ascension Iraq will be a full member after 30 days of notification. The above systems implementation are part of this process. Just my thoughts on how I see the process unfolding.

FIREFLY: We have made it to the finish line, We just need to cross it now! @DINARREVALUATION #iqd

 


PM's Advisor: Government has taken steps to revive manufacturing industry, 11 FEB

 PM's Advisor: Government has taken steps to revive manufacturing industry

The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, confirmed that the government has taken steps to revive the manufacturing industry.

Salih told the official agency: "The revival of the manufacturing industry in Iraq is a strategic issue with multiple dimensions, the first of which is that the industrial operator, whether small, medium or large, is one of the most important activities responsible for employing 60% of the workforce."

He pointed out that "eliminating sustainable unemployment requires economic diversification, and the basics of diversification start with the industrial construction of Iraq. Secondly, the partnership with the private sector is an ideal solution for reviving the industrial sector itself, whether this partnership is in providing financing and government support or a partnership in ownership or capital. 

This requires a balance between the public interest and private interests, while ensuring the existence of a transparent regulatory environment with high governance that encourages effective cooperation in an integrated social market between the two parties," noting that "the partnership in management and ownership between the public and private sectors leads to stimulating innovation and technological development and encouraging research and development, in addition to investing in advanced manufacturing technology such as automation, artificial intelligence and 3D printing."

He stressed that "the financing partnership represents the provision of financial support to small and medium enterprises operating in the field of manufacturing to create an optimal operating lever," explaining that "the national development plan indicates efforts to rebuild the foundations of the manufacturing industry through real partnerships with the private sector, where the state contributes to guaranteeing sovereign financing for manufacturing industries by 85%, while the private industrial project bears 15% of the financing."

He continued that "this financing strategy is devoted to financing industrial projects at five levels, foremost of which are projects whose products are related to construction and housing or contribute to development road works, then pharmaceutical industries, petrochemical industries, and others," noting that "the government's economic philosophy, in accordance with the government program, is based on the partnership between the state and the market with broad social security, and this is what makes it work according to the social market theory, which is a departure from economic liberalism and its risks."

He explained that “Riyada Bank was established with the support of the state to provide small and medium-sized loans to young people, and this was preceded by the Prime Minister’s Riyada Initiative, which paved the way for this by providing thousands of loans to youth sectors and stimulating their innovations,” explaining that “this will lead to encouraging the country’s regulatory and investment environment and adopting policies that encourage competition, improve the business environment, and reduce bureaucratic regulations that may hinder the industrialization process and its rapid advancement.”   link


TIDBIT FROM MARKZ, 11 FEB

 MarkZ   

[via PDK]  I have contacts that are physically working in some locations. They started over this weekend. 

A couple of group contacts are steadily working and dusting off old paperwork and going through things because they have not been there in quite sometime.

Some groups expect full release of tier 4a funds this week as well.

 I am very excited about the chatter but we need it to actually come to fruition. The sheer numbers of folks in physical position around the world right now that are updating paperwork is amazing.

Fnu Lnu: This training will give Iraqi banks the necessary tools ! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar

 


Government advisor: Financial concerns unfounded, 11 FEB

   Government advisor: Financial concerns unfounded

The Prime Minister's advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that the financial concerns raised from time to time about the economic situation in Iraq are "baseless."

Saleh told {Al-Furat News} that "Iraqi diplomacy is one of the most successful in protecting the country's supreme interests, according to the government program's adoptions and national constants, whether with the United States or others."
He added, "There is a high degree of consistency in managing the country's financial affairs in a stable manner within the framework of the general economic policy, which is a positive thing that is always indicated by the ability and flexibility to confront economic challenges with high rationality during the past years."

Saleh pointed out that "the country enjoys good financial flows from oil revenues and others, supported by efficient foreign reserves and promising economic activity in the real sector and partnership with the private sector witnessed by the country, especially in the sectors of renewable energy construction, fossil oil, electricity, gas, infrastructure, reconstruction and housing in an unprecedented manner."

Despite the statements of government officials reassuring the financial situation in Iraq, there are some concerns that are raised from time to time due to fluctuations in oil prices.

The Iraqi economy depends heavily on oil exports, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Any drop in oil prices could significantly impact government revenues and lead to a budget deficit.
While there are some financial concerns, the economic situation in Iraq appears stable at the moment, thanks to good oil revenues and foreign reserves at the Central Bank of Iraq. link

AJ : 🔥LATEST UPDATE: Federal Budget Vote!!, 11 FEB

 AJ

🔥LATEST UPDATE: Federal Budget Vote. 🔴 Timeline: The Iraqi government plans to send the 2025 budget tables to the Iraqi Council of Representatives within the next few days. 🤞 👀 🔴 Process: The Parliamentary Finance Committee is waiting to receive, review, and study these budget tables before they proceed to voting.

🔴Impact on Salaries: Despite potential delays in budget approval, the disbursement of salaries for employees and retirees will not be affected. Salaries are secured for several months into the year, allowing for spending without waiting for the budget approval. 

There is no concern regarding this issue. 🔴Federal Budget Law in February 2025, focusing on resolving oil disputes between Baghdad and Erbil and ensuring economic planning for 2025 could proceed.

MARKZ: THEY ARE TESTING THE DINAR ON FOREX! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinarinvestor

 


MP calls for enacting oil and gas law to solve salary crisis, 11 FEB

  MP calls for enacting oil and gas law to solve salary crisis

Member of the Parliamentary Oil, Gas and Wealth Committee Nazim Al-Shabli called on the federal government today, Tuesday, to expedite sending the draft oil and gas law.  

Al-Shabli told / Al-Maalouma / agency, “The legislation of the oil and gas law is sufficient to solve the crisis of salaries of the region’s employees, indicating that the law contributes greatly to stopping oil smuggling as well as addressing the salary crisis.”

He added that "the salary crisis is ongoing until now and there is hope and a beginning to solve it after the legislation of the oil and gas law within the Council of Representatives," noting that "the region continues to smuggle oil."

He stressed "the need to expedite sending the oil and gas law to solve the giant problems between Baghdad and Erbil."  link


TIDBIT FROM JEFF , 11 FEB

Jeff  

To help you on an exchange you're probably going to want to call your bank and schedule an appointment.  

In other words don't just, if you're heavily invested in this, don't just walk into a bank with a big ole bag of money and say, 'I need to exchange all this.' 

 Call them, set it up, schedule it, let them know how much you have.  Ask them, do they have limits that you can bring in?...I'm not calling a bank...I'm going to call Wells Fargo's private bank...I'll be able to bring in all my currency at one time.  I don't have to bring it in stages or in different intervals or anything like that.  I can bring it all in at once...

FNU LNU : There is a hold on the RV for an unspecified amount of time! @DINARREVALUATION #iraqidinar

 


Government advisor: Financial concerns unfounded, 11 FEB

Government advisor: Financial concerns unfounded

The Prime Minister's advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that the financial concerns raised from time to time about the economic situation in Iraq are "baseless."

Saleh told {Al-Furat News} that "Iraqi diplomacy is one of the most successful in protecting the country's supreme interests, according to the government program's adoptions and national constants, whether with the United States or others."
He added, "There is a high degree of consistency in managing the country's financial affairs in a stable manner within the framework of the general economic policy, which is a positive thing that is always indicated by the ability and flexibility to confront economic challenges with high rationality during the past years."

Saleh pointed out that "the country enjoys good financial flows from oil revenues and others, supported by efficient foreign reserves and promising economic activity in the real sector and partnership with the private sector witnessed by the country, especially in the sectors of renewable energy construction, fossil oil, electricity, gas, infrastructure, reconstruction and housing in an unprecedented manner. "

Despite the statements of government officials reassuring the financial situation in Iraq, there are some concerns that are raised from time to time due to fluctuations in oil prices.

The Iraqi economy depends heavily on oil exports, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Any drop in oil prices could significantly impact government revenues and lead to a budget deficit.
While there are some financial concerns, the economic situation in Iraq appears stable at the moment, thanks to good oil revenues and foreign reserves at the Central Bank of Iraq. link

Iraq will disrupt official working hours throughout the next week, 26 MARCH

Iraq will disrupt official working hours throughout the next week Economy News — Baghdad The Council of Ministers decided, on Tuesday, to su...