Saturday, March 22, 2025
Mazhar Muhammad Salih: Delaying the 2025 budget schedules will have no impact on government spending, 23 MARCH
Mazhar Muhammad Salih: Delaying the 2025 budget schedules will have no impact on government spending
Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, the prime Minister’s economic marketing consultant, defined nowadays, Saturday, the importance of the financial tables on the way to be sent to the residence of Representatives concerning the essential modifications to the 2025 finances.
Saleh informed “in spite of its delay because of the modification of some articles of the Federal popular budget law No. 13 of 2023 ultimate February, associated with the area’s oil, there could be no tremendous effect on spending in the public finances.”
He talked about that there are “felony flexibilities” that make contributions to regular spending: the felony provisions in effect in the wellknown budget from 2023 to 2025, in addition to the monetary control law No. 6 of 2019, as amended.
He delivered, “these two laws provide legal cowl for spending, in particular in ongoing and accepted funding initiatives, as there’s no suspension of spending besides in newly created operational regions and a few constrained spending regions.”
AJ: 💰Today Big News from Iraq: PM’s Adviser Salih reveals digital levies (taxes) hit 6T IQD in 2024, driving non-oil revenue growth, 23 MARCH
AJ
Today Big News from Iraq: PM’s Adviser Salih reveals digital levies (taxes) hit 6T IQD in 2024, driving non-oil revenue growth. 2025 looks even stronger-- this ties into my last post—Read full article for details!"
The Financial Adviser to the Prime Minister, Zahir Muhammad Salih, stressed today Friday that the positive indicators in electronic levies (taxes) will take up a comprehensive space during the current fiscal year 2025.
Saleh told the official agency and his follow-up, that "although the digital collection started from last year 2024 in a gradual and effective manner, achieving a jump in those levies (taxes) and more than 6 trillion dinars in the previous mentioned fiscal year,
It is an indicator that enhances the phenomenon of maximizing the flow of cash resources through digital systems to support the unified treasury account within a high-level and quality digital network connection and in the interest of stacking public budget revenues, which we expect to take broader levels of growth in the collection of non-oil revenues in the current year.
He added that "these positive indicators in electronic levies (taxes) will take a comprehensive space in the current fiscal year, which reflects the development of state revenues as a result of the accelerated shift to the use of electronic systems, which often leads to increased efficiency, reduced corruption, and improved transparency in the collection process, and comes as an application Optimal government program in one aspect of e-governance,
It is the public financial aspect that is strongly directed towards the use of modern information and communication technology systems in achieving the country's financial policy goals in the accuracy and sustainability of the collection of non-oil resources mostly without a harmful time slowdown.
New shipping line: Umm Qasr receives first mega-ship from South Korea , 23 MARCH
New shipping line: Umm Qasr receives first mega-ship from South Korea
3/20/2025
On Wednesday, Farhan Al-Fartousi, Director of Iraq's Ports, announced the inauguration of a new maritime line with the arrival of a South Korean giant vessel at Umm Qasr Port.
In a statement to Shafaq News, Al-Fartousi described the launch of the new line as "an important historical step," noting that this journey is the first of its kind.
The first giant container ship of the South Korean company HMM arrived at Umm Qasr Ports, marking the beginning of a new era of trade cooperation between Iraq and South Korea.
"The ship is 366 meters long, with a maximum capacity of 16,000 containers, although it arrived with a lower load," Al-Fartousi added.
He emphasized that Iraq is working to strengthen cooperation with leading countries in maritime transport to "achieve the best economic benefits."
Al-Fartousi also anticipated a greater flow of goods and commodities through Iraq's ports in the future, "which will contribute to boosting trade activity and fostering national economic growth in Iraq."LINK
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 3-20-25, 23 MARCH
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 3-20-25
Transcribed by WiserNow
Welcome everybody to the big call tonight. It’s Thursday, March 20. Happy first day of spring to everybody and you’re listening to the big call. Thanks for tuning in again all over the world. We’re glad to have you, and we’re looking forward to having a good call tonight.
So let’s do this. Let’s talk about where we are on the Intel front.
And I don’t have quite as complete the intel that I was hoping to get this afternoon. We’ve lost connection with my one of my sources that I don’t know, I will probably from tonight after the call, that is typical, sometimes, if we lose contact during the day.
But here’s the thing, what we have is what we were expecting was for everything to start this day with notifications. Now, here’s what appears to be happening. At our last discussion about rates and about screens, we had the Forex with the new currencies that are all up in value. There’s 18 total that are going up in value. Those rates were populating on all screens.
Forex with the rates linking, moving up and down, populating coming in, going up and all that. And then same thing on bank screen, same thing on redemption center screens.
And what we had understood was, if those rates are solid by last night, before midnight, then we would be good to go today. Well, I’m not sure that they all filled in to solid rates. Okay?
So then we thought, Well, okay, let’s see what happens today, and let’s see if those rates become solid during the day or by midnight tonight. All right?
And then we had information that showed, okay, yeah, the Forex rates directly are tied to and affect the rates at the banks, but redemption center rates, which is what we’re all going for, redemption center rates are not directly tied to the forex and therefore can be put up at whatever rates the countries decide when the redemption centers are going to have for us, not necessarily the same as are on forex or on the bank screens.
And we know that’s the case. We know that redemption center rates, for the most part, can be higher than those at the banks.
Okay, we’ve talked about rate of the dinar. We’ve talked about the Iraq Dinar Contract rate being way higher than bank screen rates. Even thought about getting to and they will be, it would be quite a bit higher. And I’ve told you guys roughly where expected to be, and I told you that several times, so that’s still in play. It’s still looking good.
We know the zim is on par with the USN dollar, and we know that the Dong is probably the only one we know of for sure that should be the same on bank screen says it is on redemption center screens.
However, if you have Dong only, we still recommend this call and center appointment for the redemption centers, because there are additional perks and information that you should get when you go in and exchange the Dong so we’ll see how all that comes together.
Now, we had heard earlier today that our timing may be tied to a period which would introduce the currencies as new currencies, if you will, to the Forex no longer exotic currency, like what they are right now, but the revalued currency numbers would show up and be posted either Wednesday or Sunday.
And we thought, if we don’t have anything by today, it looks like we could be delayed all the way till the weekend, which is only a couple days away, until Saturday. So we could be there. We could get notifications as early as tomorrow and start exchanges Saturday, or we could get pushed all the way to Sunday and get going Monday or Tuesday.
All of this is in play right now because we don’t know exactly where the rates stand as being solid on redemption center screens yet, if they are solid now or solid tomorrow, it looks good that we would be notified tomorrow, but we don’t have that confirmed yet, so I’m going to try to get that confirmed, which won’t help this call tonight, but I’ll try to help it, or I’ll Try to confirm it after the call tonight, providing that can happen.
The other thing is that bond holders are looking to get their access to funds at the point, I’m going to say probably Saturday. It could be tomorrow, but it could also be on Saturday, and now bonds are only being transacted in two cities in the US, Reno and Miami, both at Wells Fargo locations Reno and Miami, no longer in New York, no longer Atlanta, not in Zurich or Geneva Switzerland, but only in Reno and Miami.
And we have sources on the ground in both those areas, Reno and Miami, and reporting on the number of flights that are coming in every hour into those two cities to transact their bonds. But guess what?
These bond holders are all international. They’re coming from other places around the world to do this here, that’s the activity that people are seeing in Reno, with extra flights going in six, seven an hour in and out of Reno, but we might have maybe three flights an hour coming in and out by the International Airport, private side, for bondholders.
So for Wells Fargo, sort of and so, so that’s what’s happening. So bondholders are held back just like we are, until everything is ready to go.
Now, President Trump made a very short address that was taped for a crypto currency summit today. He made a little blurb from the Oval Office. I got to hear it today after he made that and it was recorded, and so it was played for this crypto currency Summit.
And what was interesting is he talked about the value of five of these crypto coins, and I think we know which they are. We’ve got Bitcoin. We’ve got oh gosh, let’s see which ones they’ve got, Solano garden XRP, which is ripple, XRP, and Etherium. I think you’re five right there.
Those five will actually add value to the US dollar, but in a very real sense, it’s the gold back US dollar we call the USN that is adding value to those crypto coins. So they both are working together in conjunction.
And as I mentioned on Tuesdays call, I believe it’s gold Donald and and Bitcoin already have a relationship that’s tied together by blockchain technology, where they can interact between those two coins, I predict they’ll all be interactive, where they’ll all be tradable, movable, sellable, viable on each of those coin platforms moving forward.
We’ll see if there’s a consolidation, if there’s elimination, right? I don’t think any of those five will be limited, at least that’s what it looks like now –
So as zim holders. I’ve been told I don’t think we have to worry about that one up that for ourselves. It’s good for people that maybe don’t have currency or don’t even know about the currency – to be involved in and President Trump’s in favor of them, and has spoken about it several times, and here he addressed the summit, if you will, cryptocurrency summit today, so I’m encouraged by where that’s going.
And also I’ve heard that more and more IRS agents we’re getting ready to and I want to see us move into NESARA for this country, and GESARA for the global economic security (Strategic) and reformation act, global economic security (Strategic) and reformation act. And this NESARA our national economic security (Strategic) and reformation act.
But I’m looking forward to occur in this country for us, because we know what’s included in it. We know that we have a 14% consumption tax. We know that state income taxes, which are not happening in seven of our states right now, but Florida and Texas and Massachusetts and Wyoming, there are several states don’t have state income tax. There won’t be state income tax in any state.
But the Consumption Tax will be collected and monitored by quote, unquote, IRS agents in each state. But it’s going to be like decentralized, just like education is going to go to the states and being part of the state will manage, will manage and manage education in each state.
The same thing is going to be true about collecting consumption tax on new items that we purchase, but it won’t be affected on used items that we buy or a lot of other things, and it’s not so we’re not having our federal income tax or state income tax, and I’m not sure how real estate taxes are affected. I think they may go away too, but we’ll have to see about that.
So when the NESARA does fully kick in, not only do we get debt relief and R and R, and, you know, everything that we’re looking to receive from it, but we go to the consumption tax, which is going to be way better for everybody, including us. It’ll be so much better. So I’m looking forward to that.
Now when is it going to kick in? Gosh, we thought it would kick in by now. I was told within 15 days of the 10th of the month. Well, tomorrow’s the 25th and it hasn’t kicked in yet. I’m going to say we’re going to have to see what happens, because right now, we’re looking to have information come in that’s about the Social Security increase, also information that confirms the tax structure.
Everything else, there’s quite a bit that has to come out. Will it happen before in the month, which today is, what the 20th that’s eight days away, 11 days away, to the 31st it could, it could. We could still get our increase of social added on as an extra payment this month.
I’ve told, been told that would, that would probably be the case, because it hasn’t had any. Nobody’s had an increase in their social security on the Wednesdays.And we’ve hit three Wednesdays as of yesterday, right? The fifth, the 12th and 19th, and the last Wednesday is the 26th so we’ll get that. You know, when we get it – would it be this month? We’ll just have to wait and see,
But we know that r and r for us when we go in for our exchanges will be there when we go in to exchange and redeem our zim, two of the four that should be there as soon as we get numbers and set appointments and go — Will tomorrow come into play for numbers, where we would start on Saturday. Don’t know that was what we got yesterday. Now that may have changed.
That’s the thing about this intel guys, as you know, it has changed more times than not, and maybe we’re not there until the weekend and and, you know, Monday or Tuesday next week, I really don’t know. I’m sorry. I wish I could be more definitive.
At this point, we kind of lost connection actually to get that information. I will say this, there has been an effort for certain bond pay masters in Reno and in Miami to no longer make calls out of that area. They’ve got major things happening that are keeping those calls from going.
So this shows how close we are, the fact that they’re restricting their own pay masters from Wells Fargo, from speaking on their phone. And so that’s what we have to look at and say, Okay, well, I guess that means that we’re very, very close. And that’s exactly what it means.
So everything else is moving in the direction that we wanted to go behind the scenes, President Trump has a great job of contacting President P***n of Russia, and they had a good hour and a half call two days ago. And then yesterday, President Trump had a call or so close to an hour with President Zelensky, they’re agreeing in principle to the terms that President Trump has come up with for a cease fire, at least a temporary cease fire, and a work toward a lasting treaty of peace.
And of course, way Hamas is going down there in Israel. Things are, things are not quite peaceful down there right now, but I’m sure that we’re working to try to establish that and get that done.
My understanding is we’re not to have war under the GESARA treaty or the GESARA Act, and hopefully we’re moving toward getting that put into place, putting it into effect. I know, for example, that Iraq has revalued their currency, and it’s been put out their in country rate, their international rate. Same thing’s true for Vietnam.
They put their rate out yesterday, and the rest of the countries were looking to have do the same thing. I believe it was going to be the Afghanistan, Afghani, Indonesia rupiah, and maybe a couple of others had their rate out as revalued. I haven’t heard that that had happened, but that was next, of course, the rest of the currencies, which are totally 17 or 18 total that are coming up substantially in value.
That’s all those rates that are being put on the Forex and on bank and redemption center screens that are fluctuating up and down right now, trading and hopefully that will solidify, possibly by midnight tonight, if so, we got a good chance of getting notified tomorrow, but we’ll have to see you guys are gonna have to have to just watch this along with us. Watch for emails. Watch for your email from Wells Fargo with the toll free number in it – also check big call universe.com see if we put up the 800 number over the weekend or whatever it is that I slash. We get it soon as I get it and validate it verify it.
Bob and Raleigh put it up on big call universe.com be sure that you are registered mentorship site will send you an email with number in it – we’ll be in touch with you after this goes to know we’re doing with our projects, and we’ll it’ll take us a while to get websites up and running to where you can go
So that’s what I have to say, we’re very close on and we’ll keep you prized on that we have a call Tuesday. We don’t know at this point whether we will or not. If we do it should be hopefully it’ll be a celebration call.
Okay, so let’s hope for that, in which case we would do it and have the recorded celebration call ready for you. We could do the call sooner. We get the numbers sooner, and we started setting appointments and exchange. Then we’ll probably do a recorded celebration call.
So anyway, I’m excited about where we are guys. I wish I could give you an exact timing for this, but just hang in there and know that it’s very, very close, and we’ll, we’ll be in touch with all right, so see, and let’s pray the call out,
Well, good night everybody, and have a good night and keep an eye on our emails.
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Tuesday Night 3-18-25
REPLAY LINK Intel Begins 1:18:00
Sources: Qaani Warned Iraqi Factions Against "Provoking the Americans", 23 MARCH
Sources: Qaani Warned Iraqi Factions Against "Provoking the Americans"
Houthis Close Headquarters in Central Baghdad Following Advice from the Coordination Framework
Reliable sources revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat the contents of an Iranian message to leaders of Shiite factions in Iraq, which included strict instructions to "not provoke the Americans and Israelis," warning of attacks on Baghdad similar to those targeting the Houthi group in Yemen.
For weeks, Iraqi groups loyal to Tehran have shown a marked decline in their hostile activities under international pressure and US attacks on the Houthis.
The sources said that Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, delivered a message from the Iranian leadership during a recent visit to Iraq.
Qaani warned the faction leaders that "US military attacks against Houthi facilities could quickly backfire on Baghdad."
Qaani called on Iraqi factions to "refrain from engaging in any military activity during this sensitive period," and stressed the need to "take further measures to stop or reduce armed manifestations."
The sources quoted a Shiite faction commander as saying that "Qaani conveyed strict instructions from the Iranian leadership urging Iraqi parties to avoid all forms of provocation against the Americans or Israelis." He said that "a single spark could open a front in Iraq." He added, "The leaders of the Iraqi factions were comforted by the message due to the intense pressure they have been facing for months."
The sources reported that "Tehran's assessment is that the Americans will not hesitate to carry out attacks against targets inside Iraq if the factions show a field response in support of the Houthis."
Reports indicated that Qaani visited the capital, Baghdad, last week and met with politicians in the "Coordination Framework" and leaders of armed factions.
Qaani's visits to Baghdad are often shrouded in secrecy, but his meetings focused on representatives of pro-Tehran groups and prominent leaders in the ruling coalition.
Reports claimed that Qaani renewed "Tehran's commitment to support its allies in Baghdad if they come under pressure from the US." link
BRUCE UPDATE, 22 MARCH
Bruce
The Dinar has revalued.
Bond Holders were going into Reno and Miami (not Zurich or New York) to redeem their bonds and will likely have access to their accounts by Sat. 22 March.
Tier4b (us, the Internet Group) will receive notification to set redemption appointments sometime between Fri. 21 March and Tues. 25 March.
FRANK26: "FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OF IRAQ... OIL FLOWS", 23 MARCH
KTFA
FRANK26: "FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OF IRAQ... OIL FLOWS".......F26
New shipping line: Umm Qasr receives first mega-ship from South Korea
3/20/2025
On Wednesday, Farhan Al-Fartousi, Director of Iraq's Ports, announced the inauguration of a new maritime line with the arrival of a South Korean giant vessel at Umm Qasr Port.
In a statement to Shafaq News, Al-Fartousi described the launch of the new line as "an important historical step," noting that this journey is the first of its kind.
The first giant container ship of the South Korean company HMM arrived at Umm Qasr Ports, marking the beginning of a new era of trade cooperation between Iraq and South Korea.
"The ship is 366 meters long, with a maximum capacity of 16,000 containers, although it arrived with a lower load," Al-Fartousi added.
He emphasized that Iraq is working to strengthen cooperation with leading countries in maritime transport to "achieve the best economic benefits."
Al-Fartousi also anticipated a greater flow of goods and commodities through Iraq's ports in the future, "which will contribute to boosting trade activity and fostering national economic growth in Iraq."
Bank screens are showing the new rates going up in value: IQD: $5.23 VND: $3.89 on Wed, 22 MARCH
Thurs. 20 March 2025 Quantum Financial System on Telegram
The gold-backed financial system has begun. Reports confirm large payouts are moving FAST in Colombia, Zurich, and Reno.
Bank screens are showing the new rates going up in value: IQD: $5.23 VND: $3.89 on Wed,
but will be higher before released to general public.
The system is nearly 90% complete. Notifications are set to drop ANY MOMENT.
U.S. Support for Iraqi Security Forces: Challenges and Future Prospects under Trump, 23 MARCH
U.S. Support for Iraqi Security Forces: Challenges and Future Prospects under Trump,
With U.S. security aid for Iraq under review, Baghdad is attempting to assess the potential impact of an extended freeze on its national security.
American support for Iraqi security forces remains an important factor in enhancing security and stability in Iraq—not due to the inability of Iraqi forces to perform their duties, but because of the support Washington provides in military training, weapons provision and equipment, and intelligence for fighting armed groups such as ISIS.
Generally, the Iraqi government views U.S. security support as necessary to improve the capabilities of the Iraqi army—yet this support has been in tension with Iraq's sovereignty and the presence of foreign forces on its territory, including concern that continued support could lead to increased American intervention in Iraq's internal affairs.
Political positions calling for the withdrawal of American forces—including those of the U.S.-led international coalition—have often been framed as a desire to fully restore national sovereignty,
although these calls are also linked to an Iranian rejection of this presence. However, Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency in 2025 and his administration’s own review of funding priorities, including the suspension of much of the U.S. security aid to Iraq, is redefining the conversation in Baghdad about the future of the U.S.-Iraq security relationship and its impact on Iraqi national security.
Forms of Direct Security Support
The United States is one of the main partners of the Iraqi security forces via a series of programs and assistance that include training, equipment, funding, and intelligence information. Most recent aid falls under the provisions of a bilateral security agreement—signed in 2009 during Nouri al-Maliki's premiership—that regulates the nature of the presence and activities of U.S. and international coalition forces in Iraq.
According to official reports, the United States has provided approximately $13.8 billion in funding from 2015 to 2023. This aid was estimated at about $430 million in 2023 (the latest year full data is available), and support includes a range of programs to strengthen the Iraqi military. For instance, the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program for purchasing military equipment and weapons such as aircraft, artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles included $250 million for training and developing Iraqi military capabilities in 2023, enabling Iraq to purchase key military equipment such as F-16 fighter aircraft and M1 Abrams armored vehicles. In addition, Iraq received $21.93 million through the Conventional Weapons Destruction program, further supported by $7.515 million to train Iraqi forces in reconnaissance and mine and explosives removal efforts. Much of this previous aid is currently on hold pending the review of the current administration.
This aid is not only financial; the United States has also developed extensive programs to train tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers and security personnel in various security and military fields, such as counterterrorism tactics, intelligence techniques, and surveillance and reconnaissance operations. These soldiers were trained both inside American bases in-country and at the American training center in Jordan. Likewise, the United States also conducts individual and joint operations with Iraqi forces, supplying Iraq with updated intelligence information regarding the movements of terrorist cells and carrying out precise strikes using drones. Technological support is provided through advanced surveillance equipment such as drones, which have helped security forces track enemy movements in rough geographical terrain and desert areas. Logistical support includes providing vital supplies to the Iraqi army, including fuel, spare parts for military equipment, and medical supplies. The United States also provides support in building military facilities, such as air bases and military facilities.
Motives for Support and Reasons for its Suspension
The United States has provided this continuous support to Iraqi security forces for several strategic and political reasons. The first aspect is an ongoing relationship developed in response to the June 2014 request submitted by the Iraqi government—led by then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki—for the international coalition to provide military assistance in confronting ISIS after it took control of major Iraqi cities. Security assistance, including weapons and ammunition provisions as well as logistical support, was combined with kinetic support, such as airstrikes on ISIS positions.
Despite the defeat of ISIS, its cells still carry out operations against Iraqi security forces, especially in remote areas and some locations adjacent to major cities including the Baghdad belt, Diyala and Anbar governorates, and eastern Iraq’s Hamrin Mountains. Moreover, U.S. security support has expanded beyond the initial focus on ISIS to include training and equipping Iraqi forces to face a variety of potential security threats.
For its part, the United States has characterized this assistance as part of its broader strategy in the Middle East; strong and stable Iraqi security forces contribute to protecting U.S. interests and preventing the spread of Iranian influence or terrorist groups in the region. U.S. support is also intended to insulate Iraqi security forces from the influences of Iranian politics in the region or from becoming a tool in the hands of domestic armed groups outside of the state framework, as well as prevent the Iraqi army from turning into a parallel force in favor of Iran-aligned factions.
It is as yet unclear which aspects of this calculus will be maintained by the current administration, especially since the suspension of Iraqi security aid along with that provided by USAID is both part of the American President's attempts to reassess his country's military strategy in the Middle East and overall U.S. spending on foreign aid.
A continued suspension of security aid may also be seen as part and parcel of the agreed-upon withdrawal of international coalition forces scheduled for 2026, based on an Iraqi request. Calls for such a move increased inside Iraq after the American operation that targeted both the commander of the Iranian Qods Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Committee, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in early 2020. At that time, members of the Iraqi government began to characterize American forces on Iraqi territory as a challenge to Iraqi national sovereignty, while pro-Tehran parties viewed the continued presence of these forces as an attempt by Washington to expand control over the region.
Yet Baghdad generally views the current suspension as a response to Iraqi domestic political tensions and their impact on the country’s security forces. Specifically, it is understood that American policymakers may now point to the failure of previous support programs to neutralize the Iranian influence on Iraqi security and military forces, especially when it comes to cutting off their existing relationships with Iraq’s armed factions close to Tehran. In the past, Washington has highlighted the Popular Mobilization Forces’ ongoing inclusion of Brigades 45, 46, and 47, which are affiliated with Kataib Hezbollah Brigades, despite their involvement in operations against American forces in the country. If the Trump administration determines that American military support should be linked to achieving tangible results in this regard, this decoupling has not yet been achieved—and whether Baghdad can accomplish this is an open question.
Baghdad Weighs its Options
The Iraqi government and prominent political forces generally tend to take a balanced position between their domestic interests and their need for external support. However, the pressures imposed on them at the moment due to ongoing regional changes have put them in a critical position in terms of ensuring security stability, and Iraq’s political arena may find itself in the midst of a new political storm if it seeks continued security assistance and as it weighs its potential price.
An ongoing suspension of American support for Iraqi security forces has many implications that will affect the performance of these forces and increase subsequent security risks, especially in light of the continued threats posed by ISIS and armed factions. Despite the ability of Iraqi forces in their current state to face some challenges, the long duration of U.S. support has meant that Iraqi forces have become heavily dependent on it. If this support is no longer accessible, their capabilities will likely degrade, opening new security gaps for sleeper cells to take advantage of. This is particularly the case if the military attempts to operate without access to satellite imagery and air support long provided by American drones, especially in remote desert and mountainous areas that are difficult to monitor through other means.
If ISIS becomes more active operationally, armed forces may return to the strategy deployed during the first fight against ISIS, where the severity of the threat pushed the armed forces to cooperate with some factions supported by Tehran in order to unify their efforts to address the major security risks ISIS posed. Effectively, an uptick in ISIS operations without corresponding U.S. assistance to address it will undoubtedly contribute to enhancing the capabilities and influence of armed factions and the possibility of imposing their wider influence within the Iraqi political institution. The Iraqi army will likewise struggle to finance its purchase of American military equipment, leading to an inability to update, maintain, or develop its existing arsenal, while officers will likewise lack training in advanced weapons and modern combat tactics.
Given the potential impact of this sustained suspension, Baghdad may seek to incentivize Washington to view past security aid as a ‘good investment.’ Baghdad expects Washington’s asks to include some or all of the following:
- New U.S. bases in addition to its current bases in Anbar and Erbil provinces
- Visibly reducing Iran's influence in the country by dissolving the Popular Mobilization Forces or restructuring them to ensure the organization's neutrality from Iranian influence.
- Launching joint operations against Tehran's active arms inside Iraq
- More significant oversight on U.S. support programs to ensure they are not used or leaked to factions that the United States includes on its blacklist, addressing reports leaked last year.
- Iraqi armed forces participation in a broader regional defense structure along the lines of reinvigorated “Middle East Strategic Alliance,” which the first Trump administration sought to launch to enhance cooperation between Arab countries as well as Israel against regional threats.
Yet regardless of Baghdad’s willingness to offer some or all of these incentives, it is unclear whether it can adequately respond to the core American critique of Iranian influence in Iraqi armed forces in a way that would satisfy Washington. Moreover, if Washington decides to use security aid to exert pressure in Baghdad, there is unlikely to be a unified Iraqi political response. Some forces and figures may accept the conditions of American support, while others—especially those loyal to Iran or those calling for Iraq's complete sovereignty—may reject these conditions and lean more decisively into strengthening relations with Iran or other countries in the region.
Political forces close to Tehran have developed this relationship due to ideological reasons; most of their leaders and members follow the authority of the velayat-e faqih in Tehran and are not likely to abandon it, even given Iran’s current regional decline. Additionally, even were the leadership of these groups to prove interested in decoupling from Iran, they would be unable to at a speed acceptable to Washington due to the Iranian influence within their group members and the communities that support them.
Other Shia groups under the political umbrella of the central government, as well as some Sunni and Kurdish forces, often find themselves trapped between the hammer of American pressure and the anvil of internal challenges. Since these groups want to maintain relations with both Washington and Tehran, it is unclear how they will respond to any pressure to make a quick and decisive choice.
Nevertheless, there is growing criticism in Iraq for the Iraqi government’s reluctance to negotiate with Washington to reach a bilateral agreement with the United States or the Global Coalition in general for the sake of Iraq’s national security. It seems that the pressures imposed or the internal weakness in approaching this decision led to a preference to invite foreign forces to leave rather than secure Iraqi national interests in the context of the security challenges the country faces. Consequently, there is a prevailing belief that Iraq will witness a real test period during 2025, and there is an open question about how its political elite will deal with what may prove to be an impossible choice. At minimum, Baghdad will have to understand the price of either choice—to fight for continued security funding at the expense of its relationship with Iran or to allow U.S. security assistance to lapse without significant protest and face the national security repercussions.
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