Wednesday, January 8, 2025
Iranian President: economic cooperation with Iraq discussed, completion of Shalamcheh railway line stressed, 9 JAN
Iranian President Massoud Bezhkishian confirmed that discussions with Iraqi officials centered on expanding economic cooperation, with a particular emphasis on the swift completion of Shalamcheh railway line project.
In a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia’ al-Sudani, Bezhkishian stated, “Iraq is a key strategic partner for Iran,” adding that “the relations between the two countries are at an all-time high.”
Bezhkishian highlighted Iraq’s progress, noting, “The country is undergoing a period of stability and development.”
He further pointed out that “the talks with the Prime Minister were productive, particularly in addressing regional developments.
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“We share a common perspective on the situation in Syria,” he continued, underscoring that “the potential resurgence of terrorist cells remains a shared security concern for both Iraq and Iran.”
On the matter of bilateral cooperation, Bezhkishian reiterated the importance of advancing economic and trade relations, emphasizing the “urgency of accelerating the completion of the Shalamcheh railway line.”
He concluded by expressing Iran’s “deep appreciation for Iraq’s hospitality in welcoming Iranian visitors in recent years.”
DINAR REVALUATION UPDATE: January is a pivotal month for Iraq, particularly concerning the anticipated rate change , 9 JAN
DINAR REVALUATION UPDATE: January is a pivotal month for Iraq, particularly concerning the anticipated rate change
Highlights
Summary
Here we discusses the current state of affairs in Iraq, particularly focusing on economic developments and governmental actions from October to January.
The period has been relatively quiet, with few significant events aside from the appointment of a new parliament speaker, the Kurdistan elections, and the implementation of a new electronic transfer system by the Central Bank.
Key discussions revolve around the currency auctions and remittances, which are critical for financing imports, as Iraq lacks a tradable currency.
The upcoming launch of housing loans through an electronic platform on February 2, the first phase of a railway development project, and the ongoing parliamentary discussions regarding the budget and accountability for governmental ministers.
The analysis suggests that January is a pivotal month for Iraq, particularly concerning the anticipated rate change and approval of the budget.
- 💰 Currency Auctions Continue: Despite claims to the contrary, Iraq’s Central Bank continues to conduct daily currency auctions to fund imports.
- 🏠 Home Loans Launch: Iraq will begin accepting applications for housing loans starting February 2, potentially allowing foreign ownership.
- 🚆 Railway Development: The first phase of a railway project linking Baghdad and Baji is set to begin, emphasizing the need for a convertible currency.
- 🏛️ Parliamentary Accountability: A parliamentary movement seeks to hold ministers accountable for failures and corruption amid ongoing political tensions.
- 🔍 Budget Delays: The Iraqi budget for 2023 is still pending approval, which is contingent on changes to the currency rate.
- ⚖️ Personal Status Law: The Coordination Framework is advocating for the approval of a controversial law governing marriage and family matters.
- 📈 Critical January: January is highlighted as a crucial month for potential economic changes and developments in Iraq’s financial landscape.
Key Insights
📊 Importance of Currency Auctions: The Central Bank’s currency auctions are vital for Iraq’s economy, as they facilitate the import of goods. Despite misinformation, these auctions are ongoing, indicating the government’s need to fund its imports while operating within the constraints of a non-tradable currency. This system is crucial for maintaining economic stability and ensuring the flow of essential goods into Iraq.
🏡 Impact of Home Loans on Foreign Investment: The introduction of housing loans through an international platform is a significant step towards encouraging foreign investment in Iraq’s real estate market. By allowing foreigners to apply for home loans, Iraq is attempting to attract diaspora investment, particularly from the Iraqi community abroad. This move could have long-term implications for the housing market and economic growth.
🚧 Infrastructure Development as Economic Catalyst: The commencement of the railway project is a promising sign of infrastructure development in Iraq. This project is expected to create jobs and enhance connectivity within the country, which can stimulate economic activity. However, the success of such projects relies heavily on the availability of a convertible currency for payments to foreign contractors.
🏛️ Political Accountability and Governance: The push for accountability among ministers reflects an evolving political landscape in Iraq, where citizens and political factions are increasingly demanding transparency and responsibility from their leaders. This movement could lead to significant political changes and impact future governance.
📅 Budgetary Implications of Currency Rate Change: The ongoing delays in approving the 2023 budget underscore the interconnectedness between the currency rate and governmental financial planning. The anticipation of a rate change creates uncertainty in budget discussions, suggesting that the government is holding off on finalizing financial commitments until this critical economic adjustment occurs.
📜 Legislative Developments on Personal Status Law: The Coordination Framework’s efforts to advance the personal status law highlight the importance of legal frameworks in addressing social issues in Iraq. The law’s approval could have profound effects on family and social structures, particularly within the Muslim community, which could lead to both support and opposition from various factions.
🔍 January as a Pivotal Month: The emphasis on January as a critical month for Iraq’s economic future indicates that stakeholders should closely monitor developments during this time. Any changes in the currency rate or significant legislative approvals could have far-reaching implications for both domestic and international investors, influencing confidence in Iraq’s economic recovery and stability.
The World Bank announces the date for submitting the feasibility study, the path of the development road project and its details, 9 JAN
The World Bank announced its readiness to submit the feasibility study, the path of the development road project, and its details by next February.
A statement by the House of Representatives, a copy of which was received by {Euphrates News}, stated that “the head of the Finance Committee, Atwan Al-Atwani, received today, Wednesday, a delegation from the World Bank headed by {Jean-Christophe Carré}, the regional director for the Middle East, to discuss supporting the railway rehabilitation project within the development road project.
The meeting reviewed the “economic and regional vision of the Development Road Project and its strategic importance in stimulating investment activity, maximizing non-oil revenues and providing job opportunities. It also discussed the possibility of the private sector contributing to its implementation.”
The meeting also discussed the multi-stage support provided by the World Bank for the Development Road Project, including modernizing and rehabilitating the current railway network and linking it from southern Iraq through the north and reaching Turkey.
Al-Atwani reiterated his emphasis that the infrastructure of the development road should be in the hands of the government so that this important project that links Iraq to the countries of the world will not be subject to influences.
The head of the committee pointed out that “our vision is for the development road project not to be a mere transit point, but rather we seek to make it a gateway to activate various economic and commercial activities and develop infrastructure, calling on the World Bank delegation to present new visions and ideas regarding achieving optimal investment for this huge project that is hoped to make Iraq an economic corridor linking Asia to Europe.”
He stressed the need to expedite the submission of the feasibility study related to the railway development plan within the development road project, and to contribute to mobilizing international expertise and attracting the private sector to invest in it in a way that achieves the country’s interest.
Al-Atwani concluded: We look forward to holding joint workshops and extensive meetings with the World Bank, to provide a full briefing on the project details and discuss its details in a way that secures broad parliamentary support for this loan, indicating that “the Finance Committee supports any loans that are economically feasible and bring great benefit to the Iraqi economy, especially since investment in the railway sector is a successful trend and achieves a large financial return.”
For his part, the World Bank delegation appreciated the valuable comments made by Al-Atwani in the context of the rapid transition from the planning and vision stage to the implementation stage, stressing the World Bank team’s readiness to submit the feasibility study, project path and details by next February.
AJ: Iraq parliament : Their holiday ends on January 9th to resume their session of parliament after January 9th, 9 JAN
AJ ON X
Iraq parliament : Their holiday ends on January 9th to resume their session of parliament after January 9th.
Parliament conforms to World Bank on the importance of government infrastructure in development.
Parliamentary Finance Committee stresses government control of the Development Road Project's infrastructure. In talks with the World Bank, led by Jean-Christophe Carré, they discussed railway upgrades, investment, and job prospects. The World Bank will lend for this initiative, aiming to make Iraq an economic link between Asia and Europe, with a feasibility study due in February
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ina.iq/eng/37569-parl
Exclusive: Iraq signs 8 memoranda of understanding with Iran covering 3 areas, 9 JAN
Exclusive: Iraq signs 8 memoranda of understanding with Iran covering 3 areas
Government sources revealed on Wednesday that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will sign about 8 memoranda of understanding with Iran in the security, economic and tourism fields.
The sources told Shafaq News Agency, “The visit of Al-Sudani and his accompanying delegation was not limited to discussing the latest developments and changes in the region and its security only, but it is hoped that memoranda of understanding (security, economic and tourism) will be signed according to controls and paragraphs agreed upon between the two sides.”
The sources explained that “the memoranda of understanding will be signed by members of the delegation accompanying the Iraqi Prime Minister with their counterparts from the Iranian side.”
Earlier today, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reiterated his respect for the will of the Syrian people and support for any political framework they choose, while stressing Baghdad’s keenness to establish balanced relations with all regional and international parties.
Al-Sudani said, in a joint conference with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which was followed by Shafaq News, that “the visit to Tehran comes to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries and the meeting with Pezeshkian, discussed this file and at the level of all common areas,” indicating that “the meeting also witnessed a discussion of the file of supplying Iraq with gas and energy.”
Al-Sudani added, “The coming days will witness ministerial-level meetings between the two countries to discuss strengthening joint relations between Baghdad and Tehran,” stressing at the same time “following up on joint projects with Iran, especially the railway and housing sectors.”
During his current visit to Tehran, Al-Sudani discussed with the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Shura Council, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, “bilateral relations between Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and ways to enhance them in a way that serves mutual interests, and emphasized the enhancement of cooperation in common files, as well as supporting cooperation between the legislative authorities in Iraq and Iran, in a way that contributes to consolidating the interests of the two countries.”
The meeting also discussed, according to a statement by Al-Sudani’s office received by Shafaq News Agency, “developments in Syria, where the unity of Syrian territory was emphasized, support for security and stability in it, and the necessity for the new political system to guarantee the rights of all Syrian components and spectrums, as well as joint work to reduce tensions and double efforts to establish regional and international peace and security.”
Al-Sudani arrived in the capital, Tehran, on Wednesday morning, on an official visit in response to an invitation extended to him by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
TIDBIT FROM MNT GOAT, 8 JAN
Mnt Goat
...Let’s revisit this...Oil and Gas law...Remember that this is a constitutional requirement...
We have been told many times in articles that this “referendum” must be written and passed as part of the “Stability” for Iraq. Article: "A GUARANTOR OF ZEROING OUT CRISES...PARLIAMENTARY DEMANDS TO LEGISLATE THE OIL AND GAS LAW”.
In the article the Kurdistan National Union parliamentary bloc called on the federal government, on Tuesday, “to expedite and send the oil and gas law to the House of Representatives for study and approval as quickly as possible.” Why the urgency? WOW, WOW, WOW!
Iraqi economy enters "dark tunnel" and MPs are concerned about the delay in sending budget tables, 8 JAN
Iraqi economy enters "dark tunnel" and MPs are concerned about the delay in sending budget tables
Warnings are increasing that Iraq will face major economic difficulties during the current year and the coming years, for reasons most notably its reliance on oil as the sole source of the financial budget and the lack of alternatives, especially with the increase in population.
Experts confirm that the failure to diversify the country's sources of income and invest oil revenues in providing job opportunities and producing goods and services threatens to spread unemployment among young people, while fluctuating oil prices threatens the country's economic and financial stability.
In this regard, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned today, Monday, of Iraq entering a dark and critical economic tunnel due to wrong policies, which affects the vulnerable and middle-income classes.
Al-Marsoumi said in an interview with Al-Maalouma Agency, “Iraq has begun to enter a dark and critical tunnel due to wrong economic policies, failure to provide job opportunities, and resorting to appointments, and here lies the dilemma,” indicating that "When the state is late in paying salaries, the general economic movement and all components of the private sector and the fragile and middle classes will be affected."
He added, "There is a lack of economic development and a development vision, and therefore things will continue as they are, and whenever oil prices decline, Iraq will find itself in the midst of great difficulties." He explained that "the increase in population requires raising public spending, while revenues are stagnant as a result of relying on oil as the sole resource for the budget and the failure to use its revenues to build a diversified economy that produces goods and services."
He points out that "there is no short-term solution and the government may resort to deducting a percentage of the Central Bank's transfers and borrowing from domestic banks, and the real solution lies in providing new financial sources other than oil," noting that " Continuing things as they are now will lead to a major problem and unemployment among young people will increase in the coming years.”
The 2025 budget has not yet been approved, while MPs confirm that the budget schedules have not been sent to the House of Representatives.
MP Ahmed Al-Sharmani expressed his concern today, Monday, regarding the delay in sending the 2025 budget tables by the government to the House of Representatives, noting that the parliament is still not aware of the details of these tables until now.
Al-Sharmani explained in a statement to / Al-Maalouma / agency, that “according to the Financial Management Law, the budget tables must be sent to the House of Representatives at the end of October of each year, and that delaying this is a legal violation, especially since this delay has been repeated annually for years,” explaining that “the current delay is another legal violation, as there is no specific date for sending the budget tables.”
He points out that "there is a possibility that the government is linking the sending of these tables to amending the law proposed in Parliament, which will lead to an additional long delay in light of the ongoing disagreements over the proposal."
He explained that “the House of Representatives is still not aware of the 2025 budget schedules yet, and there is no specific date for sending these schedules.”
In contrast, the Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirms that the growth rates of the non-oil GDP will rise to an unprecedented level during 2024, while pointing out that the government program has succeeded in controlling financial diversification in the general budget and the national economy in general. link
Jon Dowling : A very appropriate term for the season we're in, 8 JAN
Jon Dowling
A very appropriate term for the season we're in.
PM Sudani and the PM of Iran to meet tomorrow. Curious to see what comes of that.
Meanwhile, President Trump issues an edict that if he doesn't get our hostages back in twelve days, all hell will break loose in the middle east. Could that be Trump forcing the hand of Iran off of Iraq?
Which will allow Iraq to reset? Then Vietnam and so forth. Pray for the fires here in Southern California. The smoke makes the air quality terrible
Iraq and America discuss the existing partnership between the two countries and enhancing cooperation, 8 JAN
Iraq and America discuss the existing partnership between the two countries and enhancing cooperation
Today, Tuesday, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, discussed with the Chargé d'Affairs of the US Embassy in Baghdad, Ms. Elizabeth Trudeau, in the presence of the Director of the Political Section at the Embassy, Ms. Michelle Siders, the general situation in Iraq, and ways to enhance cooperation and existing partnership between the two countries.
The media office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives stated in a statement received by "Kalima News": "During the meeting, the general situation in Iraq was discussed, and ways to enhance cooperation and existing partnership between the two countries, with emphasis on the United States' support for Iraq in various fields, in a way that enhances stability and development."
According to the statement, the meeting also discussed "a number of topics of common interest, including developments in the regional situation and their effects on the Iraqi arena."
Dr. Al-Mashhadani stressed the importance of strengthening relations between Iraq and the United States within the framework of common interests, stressing the need to continue dialogue and cooperation to support Iraq's stability and continue efforts to confront political and economic challenges. link
MAJEED: Iran is out of Iraq for good, 8 JAN
MAJEED
Iran is out of Iraq for good
Al-Sudani conveyed Trump's orders to Khamenei:
Forced to dissolve militias
Forced to stop importing Iranian gas
Forced to prevent currency smuggling to Iran
Forced to deal with the new Syrian government
Forced to cut off the air and land bridge between Iran, Iraq and Syria and close the borders and airspace.
LFG
Article 12 obstructs budget schedules and Parliament is unaware of the size of expenditures and deficit, 8 JAN
Article 12 obstructs budget schedules and Parliament is unaware of the size of expenditures and deficit
Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Kojer, expected on Tuesday that the budget tables would be sent in February, while he pointed out the possibility of delaying its passage due to disagreements over Article 12.
Kocher said in a statement to Shafaq News, "The Iraqi law requires the Council of Ministers to send the state's general budget to the House of Representatives in the ninth or tenth month of each year, but this has not happened in the past years."
Koger expected that the budget tables for the year 2025 would be sent to the Council at the beginning of next February, but the disagreements over Article 12 of the budget law may delay sending the tables from the government to Parliament.
Koger added that "the House of Representatives and members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee do not have any knowledge of the details of the budget schedules for the year 2025," noting that they do not "know the size of the budget in terms of operating and investment expenses and the deficit rate so far."
Article 12 of the draft budget law includes compensation for the Kurdistan Regional Government for the costs of production and transportation of oil extraction in the region.
It is noteworthy that the representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc, Jiay Timur, confirmed earlier to Shafaq News Agency, that "the Iraqi government previously calculated in the budget law the cost of extracting oil at $6, and this is a very small number," noting that "foreign companies that work on extracting oil at a cost of up to $26 per barrel."
In June 2023, the Iraqi Parliament voted on the draft general budget law for the fiscal years (2023, 2024, 2025). link
EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ, 8 JAN
EXCERPTS FROM MARKZ
MZ: We hope it will happen before the 10th. There is a lot of stuff pointing to it possibly happening before the 10th. But there are a growing amount looking now for it to happen after the inauguration. Then it will let rip.
Member: Have you confirmed lower denoms have been released in Iraq?
MZ: No confirmations. There are some in Iraq telling us they are out- but no confirmations. I have seen pictures but do not know if they are old lower denoms or new on
MZ: I just want to warn you all of scammers out there. I have a great contact at Interpol that we send information to about people offering QFS accounts right now. That is a scam. One used my email address which is similar to my real address with an addition I in it…2 I’s in original…....its not spelled right. People are trying to get you to send a couple hundred bucks to get a QFS account.
MZ: You CANNOT get a QFS account yet. The new system has not started. Anyone saying differently is a scam. Fortunately Interpol is starting to go after these companies WORLDWIDE. For the love of God people. Do not fall for this. Desperate people are being preyed on left and right.
MZ: When the new system is ready you will not have to pay for an account. All of our accounts will be on it.
IMPORTANT IRAQ NEWS: IS IRAQ FACING A CASH CRISIS? , 8 JAN
IS IRAQ FACING A CASH CRISIS?
The amount of money sold, domestically and internationally, by the Central Bank in dollars this year has exceeded $62 billion, resulting in the receipt of dinars in equivalent proportion, averaging approximately 80.6 trillion dinars for the year.
Here’s the very important part –à ereHNon-oil revenues generated from taxes, fees, and customs by the end of October 2024 amounted to 14.3 trillion dinars. Combined, these revenues total around 95 trillion dinars. However, by the end of October, Iraq’s total expenditures had reached 122 trillion dinars. With two months of expenditures still unaccounted for, it is evident that the dinar reserves derived from oil-based dollar revenues have been exhausted.
This comes despite reports from the Central Bank’s Foreign Currency Selling Window, which indicate that total transfers abroad (remittances and credits) this year have reached the highest level in seven years—34% higher than last year. Similarly, dinars returned to the Central Bank and subsequently to the Ministry of Finance in proportion to this increase. So why is there talk of a cash shortage affecting the distribution of December salaries for some ministries in Baghdad and the November salary allocations for the Kurdistan Region?
According to reports from the Iraqi Ministry of Finance on revenues and expenditures, total expenditures for the first nine months of this year amounted to 94.5 trillion dinars, including 85 trillion dinars in operating expenses and 9.5 trillion dinars in investment expenses. However, according to the Ministry of Finance’s October report, total expenditures had climbed to 122.7 trillion dinars, with operating expenses accounting for 100.6 trillion dinars and investment expenses rising to 22 trillion dinars.
Looking back at previous months, it becomes evident that average monthly expenditures ranged between 10 and 11 trillion dinars. For instance, total expenditures from the beginning of the year to July were 73 trillion dinars, increasing to 83 trillion dinars in August and 94 trillion dinars in September—demonstrating consistent monthly spending within this range. However, expenditures surged dramatically in October, reaching 28.2 trillion dinars and bringing the total for the year to 122 trillion dinars by the end of that month. This significant jump was driven by increases in both operating and investment expenditures. Operating expenditures, which typically ranged from 9 to 10 trillion dinars per month, rose to 15.6 trillion dinars in October, while investment expenditures, previously averaging 1 trillion dinars per month, soared to 12.6 trillion dinars in the same period.
As a result of the excessive expenditures in October, the Ministry of Finance now lacks the cash needed to cover expenses at the end of the year. October’s spending was nearly triple the average monthly expenditure of previous months.While total revenues for the first 10 months exceeded expenditures, converting the full oil revenue—received in dollars—into Iraqi dinars or conducting domestic transactions in dinars has not been feasible which is due to government policies mandating that all domestic transactions must be conducted in dinars, while foreign transactions must be conducted in dollars and processed through remittance.
According to the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, October’s expenditures rose so significantly that the total amount of dinars generated from selling dollars domestically and internationally, combined with non-oil domestic revenues, was insufficient to cover the spending. Total expenditures for the month reached 28 trillion dinars, approximately 18 trillion dinars more than in previous months. It remains unclear how the Ministry of Finance plans to manage expenses for the remainder of the year, as 95% of Iraq’s currency is held outside the banking system, which amounts to 95.5 trillion dinars out of a total of 101.3 trillion dinars by the end of November 2024.
The underlying issue here highlights the weaknesses in Iraq’s monetary system and the absence of a coherent expenditure and revenue policy. Despite having not spent 60% of its allocated budget, the Ministry of Finance is already encountering significant challenges. Had the budget been fully implemented as planned, cash shortages would likely have arisen mid-year rather than at year-end.
In conclusion, is it true that Iraq has cash problems? Yes, Iraq is indeed facing cash problems. However, these issues are not caused by low oil revenues, declining oil prices, or a shortage of money or dollar issuance. Instead, the root cause lies in the government’s economic expenditure policy, which allowed spending to surge by approximately 300% in a single month.
TIDBIT FROM MARKZ, 8 JAN
MarkZ
[via PDK]
It’s been an exciting morning…Been proving and disproving pictures of lower denoms....There is a good chance one of my Iraqi contacts will be sharing pictures of the new Iraq $20 note today .
We do not want to get folks hopes up falsely. So doing more vetting today. The conversation in Iraq is small denominations /notes. Why would they release small notes unless there is a value change?
IMPORTANT IRAQ NEWS: ECONOMIST: NEW STEPS BY THE CENTRAL BANK REGARDING DOLLAR TRANSACTIONS, 8 JAN
ECONOMIST: NEW STEPS BY THE CENTRAL BANK REGARDING DOLLAR TRANSACTIONS
Economic expert Safwan Qusay revealed today, Sunday, that there are new steps by the Central Bank to enhance transparency and global openness.
Qusay said in a statement to Al-Maalouma Agency that “the Central Bank of Iraq and the US Federal Reserve are moving towards authorizing Iraqi banks to contract with international auditing companies, instead of relying on the dollar selling platform alone, with the aim of auditing credits and transfers before they are implemented.”
He explained that “this measure is in the interest of the Central Bank, as it contributes to avoiding the risks of money laundering cases and international sanctions,” noting that “this step is a turning point that contributes to drawing a clear map for the work of Iraqi banks on the global stage, as they will deal with international correspondents and financial guarantees in addition to instant transfers, which enhances their position in global markets.”
He pointed out that “it is possible to rehabilitate banks that are currently facing restrictions, which will lead to achieving greater stability in the exchange rate,” indicating that “the Central Bank attaches special importance in the next stage to increasing foreign currency reserves, which contributes to facilitating trade operations and supporting economic activity.”
Frank26 : Sacramento California Chase bank story, 8 JAN
Frank26
[Sacramento California Chase bank story]
A: [The wealth manager] before he even sits down, the first thing he said, you're right. Right now we don't exchange [Iraqi dinar] but 'when it goes live' we can help you right over there and he pointed to the tellers.
I said do you guys verify on site?
He said yep, when it goes live you can just go stand in line right there, they'll run it through the machine and...then it will be right in your account...no hesitation...It was almost like he was saying, we're waiting for it to go live too, is how I took it...
FRANK: Nobody knows when, but they all have been put on alert. That's why the mantra, it's a scam is no longer to be found anywhere. It has become extinct because they are preparing to deal with this.
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AJ THE NEW DIGITAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK EVERY DINAR!!, 26 MARCH
AJ THE NEW DIGITAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK EVERY DINAR Hey everyone, remember when I had this video pinned at the top of my feed last year? We...
