FRANK26….12-29-25…….THE THREE

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The Economic Risk Map That The World Has Drawn Up For Iraq During The Year 2025

 The Economic Risk Map That The World Has Drawn Up For Iraq During The Year 2025

Economy 22-12-2025, | 602   Deep Structural Imbalances    Baghdad Today – Baghdad   In the assessments of international institutions regarding Iraq's situation in 2025, it is not viewed as an economy heading towards a single, specific crisis, but rather as a system living on a delicate balance: a state that finances itself from a single resource, consumes most of its revenue on current expenditures, postpones the development of a productive economy, and is then surprised to find that shocks do not come in isolation, but rather as simultaneous waves linked to oil prices, production decisions, water scarcity, youth employment, and investor confidence. 

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This is why reports repeatedly describe the situation as one of deep structural imbalances that cannot be remedied by temporary abundance or masked by circumstantial improvements.

Dangerous Dependence On Oil

The most consistent observation in the 2025 reports is that oil continues to dictate the pace of a nation's economy before it dictates the pace of the market. When a country's revenues are so tied to a highly volatile market, any change in prices or production levels can shift it from a position of substantial spending to one of strain in a short period. This dependence not only signifies financial vulnerability but also means that policy itself becomes a recurring crisis management exercise, adapting to the ever-changing oil price landscape.

Public Finances Under Constant Pressure

Reports link the fragility of oil revenues to the structure of public spending. The issue is not simply whether or not there is a deficit, but rather the composition of the budget: salaries, pensions, subsidies, and transfers, compared to productive investment that is insufficient to transform the economy. In this context, there is a recurring warning about the inflation of current spending at the expense of development spending, which makes the state less resilient in the event of an oil shock or an emergency.

An Undiversified Economy And A Sluggish Private Sector

Conversely, reports indicate that the non-oil sector is operating below its potential, and that years of relative stability have not automatically translated into rapid and sustainable growth. They add that the private sector remains constrained by chronic factors: bureaucracy, limited access to finance, weak competition, unstable policies, and state dominance over broad economic sectors. Without a clear regulatory environment and a vibrant financial market, private investment remains too weak to become a major engine of job creation.

Finance And Banking: A Hurdle That Delays Investment

One of the most frequent findings in the reports is that the financial system is not playing its full role in driving the economy. When credit to the private sector is limited, and when confidence in the financial system remains insufficient, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) become trapped between operating costs and difficulty accessing finance, which weakens expansion and innovation and reduces opportunities for creating stable jobs.

A Dysfunctional Labor Market And High Youth Unemployment

From a labor market perspective, reports highlight the expansion of the informal economy as a large but precarious employment sector. Informal jobs mean less protection, lower productivity, a limited tax base, and ultimately, a state that spends more to manage the consequences of unemployment rather than investing in preventing it. While public sector opportunities remain the most attractive, the state's capacity to absorb them is diminishing as wages inflate, leaving the youth gap open to increasingly complex social and economic possibilities.

Corruption And Governance: A Hidden Cost That Consumes The State

International reports treat corruption and governance as economic indicators, not merely ethical considerations. Corruption increases project costs, weakens competition, deters investment, and diverts public spending toward lower output at a higher cost. Simultaneously, poor governance undermines the ability of institutions to enforce fair and transparent rules, which directly impacts market confidence and capital willingness to invest.

Increased External Risks

Reports do not view Iraq as an isolated economy, but rather as a country that is quickly exposed to global shocks due to its dependence on oil. A slowdown in the global economy, geopolitical and trade instability, or changes in demand all translate into an immediate impact on revenues. And when domestic obligations are fixed and substantial, the margin for maneuver in the face of any revenue decline becomes very limited.

Water And Climate: The Danger That Became Economic

By 2025, the water issue had shifted from the realm of environmental concerns to that of economic ones. Water scarcity, agricultural decline, and internal migration are placing long-term pressure on cities, services, and the labor market, presenting the state with a costly dilemma: either significant investments in adaptation and resource management, or accumulating social and economic costs year after year. With the increasing complexity of the water situation in upstream countries, water has become a source of both external and internal pressure simultaneously.

2025 Summary: Improvement Is Reversible If Reforms Remain Delayed

The recurring theme in international reports is that improved revenues alone do not build resilience. If a country remains dependent on oil, consumes most of its resources on current expenditures, leaves the private sector without adequate funding and a clear competitive environment, and faces water scarcity as a recurring shock, then any oil, political, or security shock will push the economy back into a state of tension.

According to economist Ziad al-Hashemi , international reports during 2025 do not speak of a temporary crisis, but rather of structural risks in the Iraqi economic model, and that any improvement in revenues will remain fragile and susceptible to reversal with the first oil, political or security shock unless deep economic reforms are implemented.

Source: Baghdad Today + X website + Agencies   https://baghdadtoday.news/289543-2025.html

Frank26 CC Summary Video: Iraqi Dinar Reassessment, Political Breakthroughs & Regional Currency Reform

Introduction: Why This Frank26 Update Matters Now

As December 2025 comes to a close, Frank26’s CC Summary Video delivers one of the most important updates yet on the Iraqi dinar, Iraq’s political reforms, and regional monetary changes. This commentary blends political reality, monetary policy, and spiritual grounding, offering a broader perspective on why the coming days and weeks may prove critical for Iraq’s financial future.

Frank frames the discussion with faith, patience, and preparation—reminding viewers that monetary reform is never just about numbers, but timing, law, and stability.

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Political Developments in Iraq: Momentum Is Building

New Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Elected

On December 29, 2025, Iraq’s parliament elected Habibit Halabusi as the new Speaker of the House. Despite name confusion with a former official, this marks a significant step forward

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.

• Kurdish representatives participated in the vote

• While dissatisfied with the outcome, their involvement signals cooperation

• Parliamentary functionality is returning faster than expected

Why This Matters

A functioning parliament is essential for passing rate-related legislation, including the long-awaited HCL (High Council Law)—a cornerstone of Iraq’s economic and monetary reform.

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The HCL Law: The Missing Piece of Monetary Reform

Frank emphasizes that most stalled Iraqi laws are exchange-rate dependent.

• The HCL is required for:

  • Budget execution

  • Oil revenue sharing

  • Currency reform implementation

“The only way they can move forward is with a new rate—most of these laws are rate related.”

Prime Minister Sudani is reportedly pressing political blocs to either:

• Follow the constitution, or

• Face political consequences

This pressure may finally break the legislative deadlock.

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Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Reassessment: December 31, 2025

What Is Happening with the IQD?

• Current rate: 1310 IQD/USD

• Official reassessment date: December 31, 2025

• The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) calls it a “review,” not a guaranteed change

Frank argues that the word “reassessment” itself implies potential adjustment, especially given the political and international pressure surrounding Iraq.

Key Warning from Frank26

If Iraq fails to adjust the exchange rate:

• US support could diminish

• Iranian influence may increase

• Economic and monetary reforms could stall completely

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Regional Currency Reform: Iraq Is Not Alone

Syria

• Launching a new national currency

• 90-day adaptation window announced

• Signals regional financial restructuring

Iran

• Facing internal protests and civil unrest

• Economic pressure weakening the regime

• Frank views this as positive for regional monetary reform

Japan’s Role

• Heavy Japanese investment in Iraqi infrastructure

• Signals international confidence in Iraq’s future

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Banking & Investor Insights: What Viewers Are Experiencing

Frank shares a real-world account from a viewer:

• Contacted by a Chase Bank wealth manager

• Banker was already aware of large currency holdings

• Confirms banks are actively monitoring dinar exposure

Preparation Tips Discussed

• Document all currency holdings

• Understand FDIC insurance limits

  • $250,000 standard

  • Up to $3 million with certain programs

• Learn banking products and post-exchange strategies

Frank also confirms:

• Continued Iraqi dinar sales

• Expansion into 12–15 additional currencies

• Expectation that retail investors will eventually be replaced by institutional “sharks and whales”

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Timeline of Key Events

Date	Event
Dec 29, 2025	Iraqi parliament elects Habibit Halabusi as Speaker
Dec 31, 2025	IQD exchange rate reassessment date
Early Jan 2026	Deputy speaker votes and HCL advancement
Within 90 days	Syria’s new currency adaptation period
Early Jan 2026	Expected arrival of US representatives in Iraq

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Key Definitions & Clarifications

Term	Explanation
HCL (High Council Law)	Core law tied to budget and monetary reform
Exchange Rate Reassessment	Official review of the IQD/USD rate
FDIC Insurance	US bank protection up to $250,000 per account
Sharks & Whales	Large institutional currency investors

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Featured Snippets 

What is the Iraqi dinar reassessment?
The Iraqi dinar reassessment is an official Central Bank of Iraq review of the IQD/USD exchange rate, currently set at 1310, scheduled for December 31, 2025.

Why is the HCL law important for Iraq?
The HCL law enables Iraq’s budget execution, oil revenue sharing, and exchange rate implementation, making it essential for economic reform.

Is Iraq expected to change its exchange rate?
While the CBI denies an imminent change, political pressure, stalled laws, and international involvement suggest a rate adjustment remains possible.

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Q&A Section

Q: Did Iraq officially change the exchange rate?

A: No official change has been announced, but a reassessment is scheduled and widely watched.

Q: Why are banks contacting dinar holders?

A: Banks are preparing for potential liquidity events and wealth management needs.

Q: Is this only about Iraq?

A: No. Syria, Iran, and regional partners are also undergoing currency and economic transitions.

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Final Thoughts

Frank26’s December 2025 CC Summary highlights a rare alignment of politics, law, and international pressure. While nothing is guaranteed, the signs point to accelerated reform efforts inside Iraq and across the region.

Preparation, patience, and understanding remain the core message.

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FRANK26 CC SUMARY VIDEO

Summary

The video is a detailed commentary and discussion centered around the Iraqi dinar, the political situation in Iraq, regional currency reforms, and related financial developments as of late December 2025. The speaker, Frank, a currency and investment commentator, opens with a prayer and frames the discussion within a spiritual context, emphasizing faith and reliance on God amid financial uncertainty.

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• Political Developments in Iraq:

  • On December 29, 2025, the Iraqi parliament elected Habibit Halabusi as the new Speaker of the House. This is noted as a different Halabusi from the previous one, causing some confusion.
  • The Kurdish delegation actively participated in the vote, despite dissatisfaction with the outcome, as they preferred a different candidate.
  • The parliament is working towards passing important laws, especially the HCL (High Council Law), which is critical for economic and monetary reforms.
  • The government formation process is advancing faster than usual, with optimism about finalizing positions and enabling legislative progress.
  • Prime Minister Sudani is pushing to break the stalemate in government formation by offering factions a choice between following the constitution or facing political consequences.

• Currency and Monetary Reform:

  • There is ongoing speculation about a new exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar, with the current rate of 1310 IQD/USD expiring on December 31, 2025.
  • The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) officially states that the end-of-year “reassessment” of the exchange rate is a review, not necessarily a change, though the speaker argues reassessment strongly implies change.
  • The passage of the HCL and other stalled laws is dependent on the establishment of a new exchange rate.
  • Frank warns that failure to increase the exchange rate could cause the US to withdraw support, leaving Iraq vulnerable to Iranian influence.
  • Other Middle Eastern countries like Syria and Iran are also undergoing currency reforms and economic challenges, with Syria launching a new currency with a 90-day adaptation window.

• Regional and Global Context:

  • Iran is experiencing internal uprisings and protests against the Islamic regime, which Frank views positively for the regional monetary reform prospects.
  • Japan is reportedly investing heavily in Iraqi infrastructure projects, signaling international confidence and involvement.
  • The discussion mentions the possibility of US sanctions and tariffs impacting regional currencies.

• Investor and Banking Insights:

  • Frank shares a firsthand account from a viewer who was contacted by a Chase Bank wealth manager aware of his significant currency investments, indicating banks are actively tracking dinar holders.
  • Investors are advised to prepare for meetings with banks by documenting their holdings and understanding banking products such as FDIC insurance limits and investment returns.
  • Frank and his broker plan to continue selling Iraqi dinars and expand offerings to include 12-15 other currencies.
  • The market for the Iraqi dinar is expected to shift from retail investors to larger “sharks and whales” once monetary reform progresses.

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Timeline of Key Events

Date	Event
Dec 29, 2025	Iraqi parliament elects Habibit Halabusi as Speaker of the House; Kurdish delegates vote but are unhappy.
Dec 31, 2025	Official expiration/reassessment date of the current Iraqi dinar exchange rate (1310 IQD/USD).
Early January 2026	Expected continuation of parliamentary votes on deputy positions and passing of the HCL.
Within 90 days	Syria’s announced adaptation period for its newly launched currency.
Early January 2026	Anticipated arrival of US representatives in Iraq to oversee and influence government and monetary reforms.

Definitions and Clarifications

Term	Explanation
HCL (High Council Law)	Key legislation linked to monetary reform and budget approval in Iraq.
Exchange Rate Reassessment	Official review and potential adjustment of the IQD/USD rate, currently at 1310.
FDIC Insurance	US banking insurance covering up to $250,000 per account, with programs covering up to $3 million for some accounts.
“Sharks and Whales”	Large investors who buy significant currency amounts during or after monetary reform.

Important Quotes

• “If they don’t change the rate, all hell is going to break loose in your country for your monetary reform and your economic reform.”
• “The only way that they can do this is if they have a new rate because most of the stalled laws are rate related.”
• “The Central Bank of Iraq denies imminent plans for an exchange rate change but calls for a reassessment.”
• “Iran is in an all-out war with the US and Israel, but the uprising inside Iran is seen as positive for monetary reform.”