Monday, January 26, 2026
Iraq faces its toughest test yet: US threats to cut off oil revenues plunge the country into a complex crisis
Iraq faces its toughest test yet: US threats to cut off oil revenues plunge the country into a complex crisis.
Abbas al-Jubouri, head of the Al-Rafid Center for Political and Strategic Studies, warned on Sunday (January 25, 2026) of serious repercussions that the Iraqi state may face if political forces proceed with including armed factions in the next government formation, in light of clear American threats to cut off or restrict the revenues of Iraqi oil sales deposited in the United States.
Al-Jubouri told Baghdad Today that “activating this threat is not just a symbolic or political measure, but rather a very dangerous economic pressure tool, given that Iraq relies primarily on the American financial system to pass its oil revenues, which makes the national economy vulnerable to severe shocks that may affect salaries, service projects, cash reserves, as well as the stability of the dinar exchange rate.”
He explained that “the United States views the issue of involving armed factions in the government from an angle related to regional security and adherence to governance standards, and that any step that may be interpreted as legitimizing weapons outside the framework of the state may prompt Washington to take punitive financial measures, including freezing assets or imposing strict banking restrictions.”
He added that “Iraq today faces a very delicate sovereign test, which is to balance the requirements of internal political agreements with the international obligations imposed by the global financial system,” warning that ignoring this balance “may put the country in direct confrontation with the international community, and bring back scenarios of economic isolation and undeclared sanctions.”
Al-Jubouri stressed that “the solution does not lie in escalation or defiance, but rather in adopting a clear governmental approach based on restricting weapons to the state, strengthening the independence of political decision-making, and reassuring international partners that the next government will be run according to the logic of the state and institutions, not the logic of axes and external loyalties.”
He concluded by saying that “any tampering with oil revenues, which represent more than 90% of the state’s resources, will place the greatest burden on the Iraqi citizen,” calling on political forces to prioritize the national interest and realize that economic stability is organically linked to political and security stability.
The Associated Press published earlier on Saturday (January 24, 2026) a report by the India Times network, confirming that the United States had begun threatening Iraq with economic strangulation by preventing access to the dollar, following Washington’s control of Venezuelan oil and the start of its marketing in global markets.
The agency stated, according to what was translated by "Baghdad Today", that the American threats to impose direct economic sanctions on the Iraqi government and prevent the flow of dollars are unprecedented in Washington's dealings with its Iraqi partner, noting that the American position witnessed a remarkable shift after its control over Venezuelan oil.
The agency suggested that the new American hardening towards Iraq stems from Washington’s conviction that it can control the global oil market and prevent any price increases in the event of a halt in Iraqi exports, by compensating for them with Venezuelan oil, a scenario that could materialize if the United States proceeds to prevent the dollar from reaching Iraq.
The agency noted that the United States issued direct threats to the Iraqi government, vowing to impose comprehensive economic sanctions on the government itself, rather than targeting individuals or institutions, in addition to causing what it described as a “dollar famine” inside Iraq, in the event that armed factions participate in the next government formation.
The recent US threats to Iraq come in the context of a broader political-economic escalation led by Washington to rearrange the global energy market, after tightening its control over Venezuelan oil and beginning to market it as a possible alternative to oils coming from countries subject to complex political calculations.
Iraq relies heavily on the dollar-based international financial system to manage its oil revenues and finance its general budget, making any restrictions on dollar access a highly influential tool of pressure on the country’s economic and financial stability. link
WALKINGSTICK & MILITIAMAN: 🚨 Iraq on the Brink: Commercial Operations, Political Pressure & the Exchange Rate Question
🔍 The Big Question Everyone Is Asking
“When does the commercial operation start?”
According to Walkingstick, this is not a casual question — it’s one being asked by people with active contracts, standing by and ready.
“All my friends that have contracts are on pins and needles. They could literally be at the border because at any second they know their contract will be activated with the new exchange rate.”
This statement alone tells us something critical:
👉 Commercial mechanisms appear ready — they are simply waiting for a trigger.
📦 Commercial Contracts & the Exchange Rate Connection
Commercial operations at scale cannot function properly without an effective exchange rate that reflects reality.
Key implications:
Contracts already signed
Logistics positioned at borders
Companies waiting on activation clauses
Exchange rate is the final gate
This strongly suggests Iraq is not preparing — it is positioned.
🌎 Featured Snippet: Key Takeaway
Is Iraq ready to activate commercial operations?
According to sources close to active contracts, Iraq appears fully positioned for commercial activation, with companies waiting for a new exchange rate to trigger contract execution at any moment.
🏛️ Political Pressure: “The Carrot or the Stick”
Walkingstick highlighted growing geopolitical pressure, particularly involving the United States.
“Trump is going to offer Iraq and Iran some options. You can either take the carrot or I will give you the stick.”
What Does This Mean?
Clear pressure to remove Iranian influence from Iraq
Diplomatic incentives vs. economic consequences
Iraq is being pushed to choose sovereignty and stability
This type of pressure historically accelerates decision-making — not delays it.
🇮🇶 Internal Politics: Not Over Yet
Militia Man added critical context regarding Iraq’s political situation.
Current Developments:
Al-Sudani remains a key front-runner with strong support
Al-Maliki was nominated but did not secure the Prime Minister position
Situation remains fluid and not officially finalized
“Let’s see if the street fires up or if there’s something else we haven’t seen and we see a surprise.”
This suggests:
Public reaction still matters
Political outcomes may change quickly
Behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing
💰 Money Flow: The Silent Confirmation
Perhaps the most overlooked — yet powerful — signal:
“We see the money flow into Iraq nonstop.”
Think about this logically:
Massive capital inflows
Years of infrastructure investment
International contracts in place
The Key Question:
Would they risk all of that without a plan?
Militia Man’s answer is clear.
💱 Can the Exchange Rate Activate Before a New PM?
This is the million-dollar question.
“Could Alaq trigger the real effective exchange rate prior to another prime minister?”
Militia Man’s Answer:
“Yes. 100% in my opinion. 100%.”
This suggests:
Exchange rate authority does not require a finalized PM
Central Bank mechanisms are independent
Economic activation can precede political completion
Historically, this has happened before — economics often leads, politics follows.
❓ Q&A – What Everyone Wants to Know
Q: Are commercial contracts really ready?
Yes. According to Walkingstick, many are already signed and waiting on rate activation.
Q: Does political uncertainty stop the exchange rate?
Not necessarily. The Central Bank can act independently.
Q: Why is money still flowing into Iraq?
Because confidence exists that activation is coming.
Q: Is Iran’s influence a factor?
Yes. External pressure is pushing Iraq toward decisive action.
Q: Could this happen suddenly?
Absolutely. When positioned, activation often appears sudden to the public.
🧭 Final Analysis: Positioned, Pressured, and Ready
Iraq is showing all the classic signs of late-stage readiness:
✔ Commercial contracts waiting
✔ Capital already committed
✔ External pressure applied
✔ Political outcomes narrowing
✔ Exchange rate authority intact
This is not the beginning of the process.
This looks like the endgame phase.
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Walkingstick
Question: "When does the commercial operation start?"
All my friends that have contracts are on pins and needles. They could literally be at the border because at any second they know their contract will be activated with the new exchange rate.
Trump is going to offer Iraq and Iran some options. You can either take the carrot or I will give you the stick. Your choice. Donald Trump wants the Iranians out of Iraq.
Militia Man
Al-Sudani was the front runner. He has the most seats but they nominated Al-Maliki. Let's see what happens. Let's see if the street fires up or if there's something else we haven't seen and we see a surprise...It's not over just yet. Maliki didn't make it to the Prime Membership. It's not official but he is the nominee.
We see the money flow into Iraq nonstop. We watched the progress...the contacts...All that money, all that effort, are they going to risk it...? Could Alaq trigger the real effective exchange rate prior to another prime minister? [Yes] 100% IMO. 100%.
Savaya met with the framework leaders and delivered Trump's message to them.
Savaya met with the framework leaders and delivered Trump's message to them.
On Monday, Amer Al-Fayez, a leader in the Coordination Framework and head of the Tasmeem bloc, revealed that Trump’s envoy, Mark Savaya, met with the framework’s leaders individually, noting that he delivered clear messages to them rejecting the Trump administration’s refusal to grant any high-ranking position in the government and parliament to figures affiliated with one of the Iraqi factions.
The winner said, in a statement followed by Al-Masalla, that “the envoy of the American president, Mark Savaya, conveyed a message written in English as a representative of Trump, which included the American government’s disapproval of the presence of armed factions or the like, and therefore its rejection of one of them assuming the position of deputy speaker of the House of Representatives.”
He added that Savaya “conveyed this message to some of the framework leaders individually, meeting with each one separately and explaining its contents to them over the past two days before he left.”
The winner explained that the coordination framework confirmed that “this matter is not within their (the Americans’) rights, as we are a fully sovereign and independent state, and this is an internal matter,” noting that “the message included an objection to the deputy speaker of parliament being from the factions.”
The head of the parliamentary design bloc warned that “the coordination framework will form a delegation or send a counter-message to inquire about the reason for the objection, given that the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament is a civilian position.”
The winner suggested that “the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq movement may not participate in the next government due to regional developments, and not out of a desire to move towards the opposition,” denying that Iraq had received “any official threat from Washington regarding cutting off the dollar.” link
CLARE: 🌍 Iraq Reclassified as a Secure Nation: UN Upgrade vs. US Financial Pressure
🔎 Big Picture: Progress Meets Pressure
Iraq is once again at the center of global attention — but this time, the signals are mixed.
On one hand, the United Nations officially upgraded Iraq’s security classification, recognizing major improvements in stability. On the other hand, the United States is warning of potential financial sanctions that could severely impact Iraq’s economy if certain political conditions are met.
This contrast tells us one thing clearly: Iraq is approaching a critical decision point.
🛡️ United Nations: Iraq Now Classified as a Secure Country
According to an official UN announcement, Iraq has achieved a major milestone in security and stability.
🔹 Key UN Statement:
“The United Nations has recorded remarkable progress in the security situation in Iraq, as it moved from classification (E) to classification (B), to be among the countries that are secure.”
This upgrade is not symbolic.
Why This Matters:
Classification (B) places Iraq among secure and stable nations
It is one of the most important indicators used by the UN to measure national security and stability
It directly impacts:
Foreign investment
International banking confidence
Sovereign risk assessments
Long-term economic planning
👉 In simple terms: Iraq now meets global security standards required for economic normalization.
📊 Featured Snippet: Key Takeaway
Has Iraq become a secure country?
Yes. According to the United Nations, Iraq has officially moved from a high-risk security classification to a stable and secure category, marking one of the strongest international validations of Iraq’s progress in decades.
💰 The Other Side: US Threatens Financial Sanctions
While the UN highlights progress, Reuters reports rising tension with the United States.
🔹 Reuters Quote:
“If armed factions participate in the next Iraqi government, the United States will take action and impose financial sanctions against Iraq.”
What Kind of Sanctions?
One of the most serious possibilities mentioned:
Preventing the repatriation of US dollars that Iraq receives from oil sales.
This would be devastating because:
Oil revenue is Iraq’s primary source of income
Those dollars fund:
Government operations
Public sector salaries
Social programs
Blocking dollar access would immediately strain liquidity
⚖️ Stability vs. Sovereignty: The Real Message
The message from the global system is becoming clearer:
✔ Security progress is acknowledged
⚠️ Financial discipline and governance are non-negotiable
The UN says Iraq is secure enough to move forward.
The US says Iraq must choose who governs and how.
This pressure is not accidental — it is leverage.
🇮🇶 Why This Moment Is Critical for Iraq
Iraq now faces a narrowing window:
Security box ✅ checked
Infrastructure built over years
Global scrutiny intensifying
Currency pressure increasing
Oil revenue dependency exposed
These factors often precede major monetary or financial decisions.
Many observers believe this is exactly the environment required for Iraq to:
Normalize its financial system
Strengthen banking transparency
Make long-delayed currency decisions
❓ Q&A – What People Are Asking
Q: Does the UN security upgrade help Iraq economically?
Yes. It improves investor confidence, reduces risk ratings, and supports reintegration into global markets.
Q: Are US sanctions guaranteed?
No. They are conditional and depend on the composition of Iraq’s next government.
Q: Why is dollar repatriation so important?
Because Iraq’s oil sales are conducted in dollars, and blocking access would cripple government spending.
Q: Is this pressure intentional?
Most analysts believe it is a strategic push to force reforms and political alignment.
Q: Does this impact the Iraqi dinar?
Indirectly, yes. Stability and dollar access are critical factors in any currency strategy.
🧭 Final Analysis: Pressure Creates Movement
This is not a contradiction — it’s a convergence.
The UN confirms Iraq is stable
The US demands responsible governance
The global system applies maximum pressure at the moment of readiness
Historically, this is how countries are forced to act.
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Clare
Article: "The United Nations announces that Iraq has moved to the category of countries with stable security"
Quote: "The UN official also noted that the United Nations has recorded remarkable progress in the security situation in Iraq, as it moved from classification (E) to classification (B), to be among the countries that are secure, indicating that this classification is one of the most important indicators adopted at the level of the United Nations in measuring the quality of security and stability."
Article: "America threatens to impose new financial sanctions on Iraq"
Quote: "Reuters news agency, citing four senior Iraqi officials who asked not to be named, reported that if armed factions participate in the next Iraqi government, the United States will take action and impose financial sanctions against Iraq...One of the types of sanctions referred to is preventing the repatriation of dollars that Iraq receives from oil sales, which constitute the main source of government spending and employee salaries."
International trade: Iraq has transformed into a safe and attractive environment for investment.
International trade: Iraq has transformed into a safe and attractive environment for investment.
The International Trade Centre confirmed on Monday that Iraq has taken concrete and effective steps in modernizing its trade and investment framework through customs reforms.
Eric Bochot, the center’s program director in Iraq, told the official newspaper, as reported by Dijlah News, that “the ongoing reforms in customs, investment frameworks, trade facilitation, and the promotion of transparency, predictability, and efficiency for economic actors have contributed to improving the overall business environment.”
Bushout noted that as these reforms continue, the interest of regional and international partners is growing, with cautious but positive expectations of increased trade, investment, and private sector participation in the coming years. link
Tishwash: The House of Representatives sets the date for the session to elect the President of the Republic.
The House of Representatives has set next Tuesday as the date for the session to elect the President of the Republic.
We still need the official agenda though link
MARKZ: 🔥 GLOBAL FINANCIAL RESET ALERT: Silver Shorts, Iraq Pressure & RV Endgame Signals 🔥
🌍 Global Financial Reset: Are We Watching the Final Act?
As January comes to a close, global financial tensions are accelerating. According to MarkZ, recent developments suggest we may be witnessing the final crossover toward a long-anticipated financial reset. From massive silver short positions to mounting pressure on Iraq’s currency system, the signs are impossible to ignore.
Despite the negativity in headlines, MarkZ reminds us:
“We are watching negative things that will have positive outcomes.”
Let’s break down the most critical takeaways.
⚠️ MarkZ Disclaimer
Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything, and it is best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions.
💥 Silver Market Panic: The Breaking Point
One of the most explosive revelations involves unprecedented silver short positions held by major global banks.
Key Highlights:
UBS allegedly holds a silver short of ~5.2 billion ounces, with a deadline around February 10–11
JP Morgan leaked internal memo reveals ~6.2 billion ounces short
Analysts suggest silver could surge above $400 per ounce
Some reports already place silver at $112 per ounce (Miles Franklin)
“They can no longer kick the can. The can is too big.” – MarkZ
Why This Matters:
It is mathematically impossible for these banks to cover their positions at current supply levels. This kind of pressure historically triggers:
Fiat currency instability
Commodity super cycles
Systemic financial resets
📉 Beyond Silver: Commodities Under Stress
Silver isn’t alone. According to the discussion:
Shorts exist in copper, beef, and other commodities
When these unwind simultaneously, fiat currencies “hit the skids”
This is a classic setup for a commodity-driven reset
“Whenever you see a reset like this – fiat collapses and commodities explode.”
🇮🇶 Iraq at the Breaking Point: Currency Pressure Mounts
Iraq is facing increasing global and regional pressure:
The USD surpassed 150,000 dinars inside Iraq
Iran’s currency is collapsing
Regional instability in Syria and beyond
Internal demands for transparency on government salaries
“Iraq has reached the point where they have to do something. They have to pull the trigger.” – MarkZ
MarkZ believes Iraq has spent years building infrastructure for this moment and is now in the final push.
🏛️ Political Delays & Global Timing
Another major holdup may have been political:
Delays in the House of Representatives
Seating of leadership expected to unblock progress
Push to finalize HCL (Hydrocarbon Law) seen as very positive
This aligns with MarkZ’s statement:
“We’ve reached the ‘do it now or never’ moment.”
💱 XRP Shockwave: Japan Makes a Major Move
In a major development for digital assets:
“Japan set to recognize XRP as a regulated financial asset.”
This move:
Validates XRP’s utility
Signals broader institutional acceptance
Strengthens the case for blockchain integration in a post-reset world
🎥 Featured Snippet: Key Takeaway
Is the global financial system nearing a reset?
According to MarkZ, massive silver short positions, mounting pressure on Iraq’s currency, and geopolitical instability suggest the system has reached a breaking point where action is unavoidable.
❓ Q&A – Most Asked Questions
Q: When will the RV happen?
MarkZ: “If I knew that, I wouldn’t be here.”
Q: What happens when silver shorts come due?
Banks may be forced into emergency liquidity measures, asset revaluations, or systemic resets.
Q: Could banks need dinar liquidity?
Some speculate dinar demand could rise, but no confirmation exists.
Q: Is the chaos expected?
Yes. Many were told years ago the end would be chaotic and confusing.
Q: Are QFS accounts real right now?
Absolutely not.
“It’s all a scam. There are no QFS accounts available.”
🚨 Critical Warning: QFS Scams
MarkZ issued a strong warning:
“Do NOT fall for QFS scams on Telegram. It is all bullshit. You cannot get a QFS account right now.”
If someone asks for money, information, or promises early access — it’s a scam.
🙏 Final Thoughts: Stay Calm, Stay Ready
Despite the noise, fear, and chaos:
“Sit back… eat some popcorn. It’s all coming unglued.” – MarkZ
History shows that maximum confusion often precedes major change.
Stay informed. Stay grounded. Stay positive.
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MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
Member: Good Morning everyone
Member: Only few days left in January !! RV in February or March now !!
Member: So what’s the hold up on the rv? Just curious.
Member: Could be Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq with no government or the US government possibly closing next weekend?
Member: Negativity is really depressing. We have to stay positive. God is working behind the scenes.
MZ: I believe we are watching negative things that will have positive outcomes.
MZ: I was told some things that have been hanging it up was a delay in the House of Representatives- they will now be seating the President tomorrow (I was told) …then a push to finish the HCL. That is very positive out of Iraq.
MZ: I believe we have reached the “S*** or get off the pot” moment. We are watching pure panic. UBS has to cover a silver short of about Feb 10th or 11th of around 5.2 billion ounces . JPMorgan had an internal memo leaked over the weekend saying their number is about 6 Billion ounces of silver short. It is pure panic. None of these banks can cover these shorts. It is mathematically impossible for them to cover these shorts.
MZ: From ZeroHedge“Leaked JP Morgan Memo: Exposes a 6.2 billion oz. silver short on the edge of collapse” They are suggesting silver will rise to over $412 an oz.
MZ: Annalists even said that they see silver price going to over $400 an ounce. Now financial institutions have to figure out how to cover the shorts.
Member: It’s time to pay the piper.
MZ: They can no longer kick the can. The can is too big.
Member: Silver is up to $112 per Miles Franklin.
MZ: There is also shorts in copper, beef ect. Whenever you see a reset like this – fiat hits the skids and we will see a commodity super cycle.
Member: Bank of America is not gonna be able to cover their shorts
Member: I wonder- So what happens to JPM and UBS when the deadline hits?
Member: Maybe JPM , UBS and other banks might need our dinar for liquidity????
Member: Mark, I read this morning that the banks owe their silver shorts (or something like that) on the 28th of January. And for every $1 silver raises it increases their shorts exponentially.
MZ: Sit back…eat some popcorn it is all coming unglued
Member: I would rather be eating popcorn and be watching a very different movie.
MZ: “ Japan set to recognize XRP as a regulated Financial Asset” This is big for all XRP folks.
Member: So when is the RV?
MZ: If I knew that – I would not be here.
MZ: “The dollar exceeds the barrier of 150 thousand dinar in Iraq” Iraq is getting to the point where they have to do something. They have to pull the trigger. They are feeling pressure from the whole world to make decisions. Irans currency is imploding. Issues with Syria and they are being forced to make “relationship decisions”
MZ: Iraq has put together the infrastructure for many years and working to get ready for this moment. I think we are watching the final push…the final crossover. They have reached the point where they have to move forward.
MZ: “New calls from the Minister of Finance on salaries” But they want to see all the data on who is actually getting paid. I wish they would do this in the US.
Member: Guess there was no bond news today? Didn’t Marks bond contact have a meeting today?
MZ: He was supposed to be back physically in Zurich by Monday morning. He got back there late last night. I am still waiting for an update.
Member: So if US govt closes down on Saturday … next weekend could be interesting!
Member: Melania rings bell at stock market on the 28th…that is interesting
Member: Mark—question…since our troops have left Iraq, do you think US has been paid and they are just holding us up for some reason. Can’t imagine DJT would let them leave without getting paid…
MZ: I think they may have been paid and know exactly when Iraq will flip the switch. Or at least have a range within days….or our troops would not be gone.
Member: I hear some US troops just moved to Kurdistan so they are still in Iraq?
Member: There are over 1000 U.S. troops still in Iraq! My best friend is there. He is military intelligence
Member: My son is in the Army Special Forces and is deployed in Iraq. He comes home the first week of February!
Membr: We were told years ago its supposed to be totally chaotic at the End of the wait for the RV…maybe that is where we are at?
MZ: A warning to not fall for the QFS scams on Telegram….Its all bullshit. You cannot get a QFS account right now. We have warned you a thousand times….It is all a scam. If you fall for it now its your own fault. So do not email me to help you…..It is all a scam.
Member: I've got to give you major props, Mark. With what you know and see, trying to keep people on the right path is a herculean task. It's got to be exhausting.
Member: Thanks Mark and mods. Everyone stay warm and try to have a good day.
WALKINGSTICK: IRAQ WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENCY STABILITY PAIRING THE IQD TO A BASKET OF CURRENCIES
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