Omar You need a fully seated government in order to even consider a new exchange rate.
USA Trump congratulated Zaidi and gave him his full support. He even invited the new prime minister to come to Washington DC once the government is completed. They had a very good call.
FRANK:Trump is working with your guy because your guy is working with Trump. This is what we need, security and stability.
OMAR : The new candidate for prime minister just spoke on the television. He's saying he is eager and willing to work with all political forces inside...Iraq and
looking forward to meeting the demands of the citizens and he is going to continue the monetary reform.
FRANK: Wow! I am excited...because we know the demands of the Iraqi citizens. They want purchasing power. They want the CBI to release the new exchange rate...
---
OMAR: The television news just announced that both Iran and the United States are giving them the green light to the new prime minister.
FRANK:It's the United States is the one that put him there. It is Iran that is accepting him.
Omar:Zaidi is the candidate for the prime minister picked by the Coordinated Framework. Turns out he is a compromise...USA seem to be ok because he doesn't have any direct ties to Iran... Everybody can tolerate didn't actually everybody love. He has 30 days to pick his cabinet...and only then the parliament vote on the whole team as a package...
FRANK:Next thing is your government will be formed. Everything else should follow in place after those 30 days which leads to a new exchange rate...
A BILLION DOLLARS TO PREVENT MALIKI… FINANCIAL INTERVENTIONS SHAKE THE SELECTION OF THE PRIME MINISTER
The spokesman for the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, Kazem al-Fartousi, stated on Thursday that one billion dollars was paid to prevent the Coordination Framework from proceeding with the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki for the premiership, calling on the leaders of the Framework and the country to free themselves from American control, and indicating that American control over the flow of dollars to Iraq is not subject to the reaction of the armed factions, but rather to the rejection of its policies in the country.
Al-Fartousi denied, in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network: “targeting Saudi facilities or infrastructure from inside Iraq,” stressing that “the target was the American military bases, in addition to responding to the sources of fire .”
He added that “20% of the strikes that targeted Iraq were directed towards the factions, while the remaining percentage targeted other targets,
such as the Popular Mobilization Forces, the tribal forces, and some areas in Kirkuk .”
He continued, saying: “You have not freed yourselves from American restrictions, and you say that the dollar stopped because of us, but the truth is that the dollar stopped as a result of the American dictates imposed on Iraq.”
He added, “Whoever speaks of an independent state and rejects any infringement on its sovereignty by the factions must enforce this sovereignty and prevent attacks, and not turn the state into a ‘gas station’ where American planes land even on rooftops, and free up his money and engage in real commercial transactions, and then he can hold us accountable even for a Kalashnikov bullet .”
He denied “the existence of coordination between the Iraqi factions and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard during the ongoing war in the region,” stressing that “the factions know their duties and objectives, and have accuracy in identifying information, and that coordination was only in principle, and does not exist at the military level
.”
Al-Fartousi stressed “the need to respect the Iraqi constitution, which guarantees the right to vote and run for office,” saying: “We have won seats and we have the right to participate in the government .”
He asked: “Do you want to abolish the Constitution because Trump doesn’t like it? Do you want to suspend it because he refuses to allow factions to participate in the government? This is a question that politicians must answer .”
He pointed out that “armed factions existed before the constitution, and he could have stipulated their prohibition if he had wanted to .”
He explained that “what is being circulated about American messages is sometimes used to eliminate opponents within the political process and to monopolize positions, as some parties try to use the American position as a pretext to exclude other parties from participating in the government .”
He added that “one billion dollars was paid to prevent the Coordination Framework from proceeding with the nomination of Maliki for the premiership,” while he declined to confirm or deny the party to which this amount was paid .
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🧭📊 Realistic 1–2 Year Timeline for the Iraqi Dinar
Stability-first scenario leading to potential gradual strengthening
When analyzing Iraq’s monetary future, the key driver is not speculation, but political stability and institutional reform under the Central Bank of Iraq. Below is a realistic 12–24 month scenario based on how currency systems typically evolve in transitional economies.
🟡 0–6 Months: Political consolidation and monetary control
At the beginning of the cycle, the focus is not on currency value, but on system stability.
Likely developments:
Formation or consolidation of a stable government
Continued monetary policy management by the Central Bank of Iraq
Stronger enforcement against dollar dominance in the local economy
Expansion of digital payment systems
Currency impact:
Stable and tightly managed exchange rate
Reduced volatility in parallel markets
Improved internal confidence, but no revaluation
📌 Key idea: Stability is being built, not valuation changes.
🟠 6–12 Months: Visible economic and banking reform
If political conditions remain stable, reforms become more structural.
Likely developments:
Strengthening of the domestic banking system
Wider adoption of electronic payments
Greater formalization of the internal economy
Improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policy
Currency impact:
Narrowing gap between official and parallel exchange rates
Increased domestic reliance on the Iraqi dinar
Stability remains the priority over revaluation
📌 Key idea: System modernization, not currency appreciation yet.
🟢 12–18 Months: Gradual macroeconomic confidence building
At this stage, reforms begin to accumulate measurable effects.
Likely developments:
Increased regional investor confidence
Potential improvements in sovereign risk perception
Stronger foreign currency inflows from oil exports
Reduced cash-based economic activity
Currency impact:
Possible slight market-driven strengthening (if fundamentals improve)
Lower inflationary pressure
More stable purchasing power domestically
📌 Key idea: Confidence grows before any currency movement.
This is the most optimistic but still realistic outcome.
Likely developments:
More advanced digital financial infrastructure
Continued political stability without major disruption
Stronger integration into regional financial systems
Sustained economic reform momentum
Currency impact:
Possible slow and controlled appreciation of the dinar
Reduced spread between official and parallel markets
Improved long-term currency credibility
📌 Key idea: Any improvement would be gradual, not sudden.
⚠️ Critical reality check
Even in this optimistic framework:
❌ No guaranteed sharp revaluation exists
❌ No evidence supports sudden overnight currency jumps
✔️ The most realistic outcome is stability first, gradual adjustment later if fundamentals strengthen
🧠 Final takeaway
In transitional economies like Iraq:
Currency strength is not driven by expectations or resources alone, but by sustained political stability, institutional trust, and long-term economic reform.
If Iraq maintains stability over the next 1–2 years, the most realistic positive outcome is not a dramatic revaluation, but a slow, controlled strengthening of monetary conditions over time.
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They are clouding the timing on purpose. Remember, they did this when Kuwait went. As Mr. C says “it’s a survival game”.
I do want to point out that I am very upbeat as to where we’re at.
On the Bond side:
Quiet. My one from Tuesday has not responded as to whether they got paid, whether they finished theirs. I finally got a response from them and all they said was “meetings went great, we have another one next week to close another deal”. Does it mean he got paid? Inquiring minds want to know, mine especially but yours probably more than mine and then we’ve got two more meetings today.
I very much believe Bond money started moving, I can’t prove it but very much believe it is moving which is very much why I’m upbeat.
Iraq:
The HCL is underway, it’s all coming together. I’m watching the evidence of them lifting the purchasing power.
What I’m hearing from my contacts is there has been a huge wake up movement in Europe with leadership regarding the Iranian conflict.
United Airlines has their own Refinery but Airlines soon will have to stop flying if this does not force decisions to be made.
WHAT WILL HE CHOOSE? THE SUDANESE GOVERNMENT FACES WASHINGTON’S DEMANDS TO CUT THE SALARIES OF THE POPULAR MOBILIZATION FORCES AND TARGET THE FACTIONS
The head of the Reconstruction and Development bloc, Bahaa al-Araji, revealed that there is a division within the coordination framework regarding the mechanism for choosing the next prime minister, between the “signatures” system adopted by the State of Law bloc and “direct voting,” stressing that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is facing harsh American conditions, including cutting the salaries of the Popular Mobilization Forces and striking some factions .
Al-Araji said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network that “Monday’s framework session resulted in the submission of 6 signatures from the State of Law coalition in favor of Basim Al-Badri, while Hadi Al-Amiri proposed the option of direct voting instead of signatures to choose the Prime Minister, and after his intervention the discussion moved to the selection mechanism .”
He added that “the proposed new mechanism is based on the candidate obtaining two-thirds of the votes of the leaders of the framework, and in the second stage two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives from the framework. It was proposed by Al-Amiri, Al-Hakim and Al-Khazali, but it was rejected by the State of Law, and the discussion about it was postponed to the next session .”
He added that “the upcoming coordination framework meeting will not discuss the selection of the prime minister unless the selection mechanism is decided, with the direct voting option being the most likely to be fair .”
He pointed out that “Al-Asadi did not sign, despite being part of the Reconstruction and Development bloc, and expressed conditional approval related to the signing of other leaders in favor of Bassem Al-Badri, while the bloc did not adopt the mechanism of signatures at all and preferred to vote by raising hands as usual .”
He stressed that “choosing the prime minister is not the most important thing at the moment, but rather the unity of the coordinating framework, especially in light of international discussions related to the Iraqi political system .”
He added that “Al-Sudani prepared his government program before the elections, and it included restricting weapons to the state, and he rejects dealing with the issue with violence and prefers political and legal solutions .”
He explained that “the United States had put forward two main demands during the past period, which were to cut off the salaries of the Popular Mobilization Forces and to strike some factions, which Al-Sudani rejected .”
He explained that “the current stage includes American conditions, which does not mean accepting them, but it requires dealing with them under complex circumstances,” noting that “some strikes that targeted diplomatic interests contributed to strained relations and the departure of a number of missions .”
Al-Araji pointed out that “about 90% of diplomatic missions have left Iraq, especially the Arab ones, as a result of attacks targeting some countries, which has negatively affected the political and economic reality, including the delay in the flow of dollars into the country.
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