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Iraq PM race stuck between largest bloc dispute and US pressure

Nearly four months after Iraq’s November 11, 2025, parliamentary elections, the country remains trapped in a deep political stalemate, with rival factions still unable to agree on a prime minister. The internal dispute over leadership started from within the Shiite-led Coordination Framework but has evolved into a broader constitutional and geopolitical crisis, complicated by a regional war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other.

The deadlock has effectively frozen Iraq’s constitutional process, leaving the political class searching for last-minute compromises while regional tensions intensify and foreign pressure mounts over the next government’s leadership.

Elections Without A Government

Iraqis expected the elections to produce a new executive authority capable of translating the vote into a functioning government. Instead, negotiations have stalled over two central questions: the identity of the next prime minister and the constitutional definition of the “largest parliamentary bloc” tasked with forming the government.

The dispute centers primarily within the Coordination Framework, the Shiite alliance that dominates parliamentary politics but remains divided between supporters of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and those backing other candidates, including the current caretaker premier Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

While these negotiations dragged on, a new external variable emerged. The war between Iran and the United States-Israel alliance —now entering its eighth day— has introduced new pressures on Iraq’s political landscape, including direct American pressure reportedly led by US President Donald Trump to prevent certain figures, mainly al-Maliki, from assuming the premiership.

This overlap between domestic political bargaining and regional conflict has raised fears that Iraq could again become entangled in broader geopolitical struggles.

Iraq’s next Prime Minister held hostage by US-Iran standoff

Judicial Intervention And The “Largest Bloc” Debate

Amid the stalemate, Iraq’s judiciary stepped unexpectedly into the political debate. Supreme Judicial Council President Judge Faiq Zidan proposed a legal interpretation aimed at restoring what he described as the true constitutional intent behind Article 76.

Zidan’s proposal rests on a simple principle: the electoral list that wins the most votes should automatically be recognized as the “largest bloc.”

If adopted, this interpretation would fundamentally alter Iraq’s government formation process. Since 2010, political alliances have typically been formed after elections inside parliament, allowing rival parties to merge into larger coalitions that override the actual electoral results.

Critics have long argued that this practice emptied the ballot box of its meaning and turned post-election bargaining into the decisive stage of Iraqi politics.

By contrast, Zidan’s proposal would give the winning list the exclusive right to nominate the prime minister, potentially limiting the prolonged negotiations that have repeatedly paralyzed the system.

Haider Ali Abu Tara al-Feyli, a member of parliament representing the Feyli Kurdish quota, said many lawmakers support the judiciary’s interpretation. “The negotiations to form the government are still ongoing despite the internal disagreements inside the Coordination Framework,” he told Shafaq News.

“But Judge Faiq Zidan was clear in his latest proposal regarding the largest bloc as a constitutional clarification, and as members of parliament, we follow the opinion of the Supreme Judicial Council.”

Al-Feyli warned that the failure to form a government has disrupted all state institutions, and this is “extremely dangerous given what is happening in the region.” “It poses a direct threat to Iraq, so the issue must be resolved in the coming days.”

Iraq slips into constitutional vacuum as presidential deadlock drags on

Washington’s Shadow Over Baghdad

Yet the optimism surrounding a legal solution collides with strong resistance from factions inside the Coordination Framework, particularly the State of Law coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki.

For al-Maliki’s allies, the main obstacle is not constitutional interpretation but foreign pressure.

Aref al-Hammami, a senior member of the coalition, insisted that “our candidate so far is Maliki, and the latest Coordination Framework meeting reaffirmed adherence to him.” He argued that abandoning the candidacy under American pressure would undermine Iraq’s sovereignty.

“Changing the candidate because of American dictates would be humiliating for national legitimacy,” al-Hammami said. “The US government is neither wise nor respectful of agreements, and giving in to such pressure would open the door to interference even in the details of Iraqi ministries.”

Al-Hammami also downplayed the legal weight of Zidan’s proposal, considering that presenting a vision, not a binding decision,” and noting that any constitutional amendment would face significant procedural hurdles and could be blocked if three provinces reject it.

He added that another structural obstacle lies in the Kurdish parties’ delay in nominating a candidate for president, a step required before the prime minister can formally be designated.

Nouri Al-Maliki’s return rekindles Iraq’s divisions as Iran and the US pull apart

Coordination Framework Divisions Widen

Inside the Coordination Framework itself, some voices appear increasingly pessimistic about reaching a consensus candidate.

Rahman al-Jazaeri, another political figure within the alliance, described the situation as a clear political bottleneck unfolding at the same time as armed conflict across the region.

“The proposal of Judge Zidan will create a new dynamic,” he told Shafaq News.

“There are opponents to al-Sudani despite his list having the largest number of seats —46 out of the 329-seat Iraqi parliament. At the same time, there has been no official withdrawal of al-Maliki and no unanimous decision by the Framework.”

According to al-Jazaeri, current meetings between political leaders remain informal and inconclusive. He also warned that the regional security situation could delay the formation of a government further.

“Popular Mobilization Forces fighters are currently being targeted by Israeli and American airstrikes,” he said. “This will certainly delay government formation, and we may remain in a ‘state of emergency government.’”

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A Compromise Candidate Emerges?

Behind the scenes, political circles in Baghdad are quietly discussing another possible scenario: the emergence of a compromise figure outside the current rivalry.

Al-Jazaeri hinted that an independent candidate could soon enter the race, particularly after Eid al-Fitr, when a legal option may be imposed —either dissolving parliament or reconsidering the issue of the prime minister.

“There is now an independent personality outside the Coordination Framework negotiations, regionally acceptable and enjoying the approval of the senior religious authority in Najaf. This candidate may be announced in the coming days as a consensus option.”

If such a figure gains traction, it could offer a face-saving exit for competing factions unwilling to surrender their preferred candidates.

Despite Zidan’s interpretation and renewed calls by Iraq’s four presidencies —President Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi, and Supreme Judicial Council head Faiq Zidan— to accelerate the completion of constitutional obligations, the regional war, persistent internal divisions, and mounting foreign pressure continue to shape the calculations of Iraqi factions and delay the formation of a new government.

JEFF: Economic Diversification, Government Formation, and Global Integration

Iraqi Dinar Update: Why Economic Reform and Stability Matter

The future of the Iraqi dinar continues to attract attention from investors and economic observers worldwide. According to commentary attributed to Jeff, Iraq’s path toward global financial integration depends heavily on economic diversification, government stability, and regional geopolitical developments.

One of the key issues highlighted by analysts is Iraq’s dependence on oil revenues. Currently, the national budget of Iraq relies overwhelmingly on oil exports, which creates vulnerability during fluctuations in global energy markets.

For Iraq to strengthen its economy and move toward broader international trade participation, diversification is essential.

Why Iraq Must Diversify Beyond Oil

A critical step for Iraq’s long-term economic stability is reducing its reliance on oil as the primary source of revenue.

Analysts often point out that countries seeking stronger integration into global trade frameworks must maintain multiple sustainable economic sectors.

Some of the key areas Iraq is working to develop include:

1. Tax Revenue Systems

Modern taxation structures are essential for government funding beyond oil profits.

2. Tourism

Iraq is home to historic religious and cultural sites that attract millions of pilgrims annually.

Cities such as Najaf and Karbala already receive large numbers of visitors each year, creating opportunities for tourism expansion.

3. Exports and Industry

Developing manufacturing and agricultural exports can help stabilize the national economy.

These steps are often viewed as necessary before Iraq can significantly expand its role in global commerce.

Iraq’s Path Toward International Financial Integration

A strong economy and stable government are critical components for any country seeking deeper participation in international trade and finance.

Institutions such as the World Trade Organization encourage economic reforms that promote:

Competitive markets
Transparent trade policies
Diversified economic output

While Iraq has made progress toward joining global economic frameworks, reforms must continue before full integration becomes possible.

Government Formation: A Key Political Milestone

Another factor closely watched by analysts is the formation and stability of Iraq’s government.

Political unity allows leaders to implement long-term reforms related to banking, trade, and international agreements.

Without a stable governing structure, it becomes much more difficult for financial authorities such as the Central Bank of Iraq to execute large-scale economic policies.

Some observers believe government formation could move quickly once political negotiations reach consensus.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact

Regional tensions are another variable influencing Iraq’s economic timeline.

Relations between Iran and the United States often affect political dynamics inside Iraq due to the country’s strategic location and alliances.

According to analysts, increased tensions between the two powers may create uncertainty for international markets and investors.

During periods of instability, governments typically delay major economic initiatives until the geopolitical environment becomes more predictable.

U.S. Policy Toward Iranian Influence in Iraq

Former U.S. President Donald Trump frequently emphasized limiting Iranian influence in Iraq as part of broader Middle East policy.

U.S. officials have long viewed Iraq as a critical geopolitical partner due to:

Its strategic location
Its large energy resources
Its role in regional security

Reducing external influence within Iraq’s political system is often seen as a step toward stronger sovereignty and economic independence.

What Could Lead Iraq to “Go International”?

Many dinar observers use the phrase “going international” to describe Iraq expanding its financial and trade integration with global markets.

Several conditions are commonly discussed as necessary for this transition:

Political Stability

A fully functioning government capable of implementing reforms.

Regional Security

Reduced geopolitical tensions that might disrupt trade and investment.

Banking Modernization

Improved international compliance standards for Iraqi banks.

Economic Diversification

Development of non-oil sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing.

Meeting these conditions could strengthen Iraq’s position in global financial systems.

Featured Snippet: Quick Answer

What does it mean for Iraq to go international financially?

Going international refers to Iraq expanding its integration with global financial markets through economic reforms, diversified revenue streams, modern banking systems, and greater participation in international trade organizations.

Q&A: Iraqi Dinar and Iraq’s Economic Future

Q: Why does Iraq need more than oil revenue?

Relying solely on oil makes the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations. Diversification provides financial stability.

Q: What role does the Central Bank of Iraq play?

The Central Bank of Iraq manages monetary policy, exchange rates, and banking system stability.

Q: How do geopolitical tensions affect Iraq’s economy?

Regional conflicts or political tensions can delay economic reforms and reduce foreign investment.

Q: Why is government formation important?

A stable government can pass laws and reforms necessary for economic growth and international integration.

Q: Is there a confirmed date for a dinar revaluation?

No official authority has announced any confirmed timeline for a major currency revaluation.

Key Takeaways

Iraq is working to reduce its reliance on oil revenues.
Economic diversification is essential for long-term stability.
Government formation and political unity are crucial for reforms.
Regional tensions involving Iran and the United States can influence economic timelines.
Stronger global financial integration requires continued reforms.

Final Thoughts

Iraq’s economic future depends on a combination of political stability, diversified revenue streams, and international cooperation.

While speculation about the Iraqi dinar continues, the most concrete indicators of progress are the reforms taking place within the country’s financial and political systems.

Observers should watch developments in government formation, regional diplomacy, and economic diversificationas key signals for Iraq’s long-term economic trajectory.

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Jeff

Article Quote: "The goal is to reduce dependence on oil revenues which currently dominate the national budget" Remember that is a World Trade requirement for Iraq, to have more than one revenue stream...They've got to have taxes...tourism...exports...All of this is required World Trade step to join...

We've got to see the war end. We've got to see Iraq finish the formation of the government...It can finish and form very quick and it can all happen in March...

When the US/Iran tensions started increasing, escalating that's when out of nowhere Iraq had to introduce a delay because they're not ready to go international until the US/Iran war is done.

Because Trump made it very clear that he will not tolerate Iranian influence within Iraq. So you're seeing a delay...Once the war ends, they can form the government... leading to the rate change and going international.