DINAR REVALUATION
Monday, February 9, 2026
Iraq’s budget paralysis: How the 1/12 rule reduced state finances to salary payments
For the second consecutive year, Iraq is operating under the so-called “1/12 financial management rule,” a stopgap mechanism that allows the government to spend only one-twelfth of the previous year’s operational expenditures each month. While the arrangement ensures the continued payment of salaries and pensions, it leaves the country without a general budget that sets spending priorities, funds investment projects, allocates provincial shares, or supports development across key sectors.
The budget vacuum comes at a time of sharp volatility in global oil prices —swinging in response to regional political developments— alongside a growing liquidity crunch inside Iraq. Together, these pressures have reduced the state’s financial system to what economists increasingly describe as little more than a mechanism for paying public-sector wages, with virtually no capacity to stimulate broader economic activity.
Economic specialists interviewed by Shafaq News warn that the situation amounts to a “major crisis” with wide-ranging consequences. While they acknowledge that declining revenues prevented the submission of a budget last year, they argue that the same conditions are now pushing the next government toward a similar deadlock.
Read more: Iraq’s private banks: Capital Growth and the structural credit gap
Operational spending —covering salaries, fuel, food rations, and basic ministry expenses— traditionally consumed the bulk of Iraq’s budget, while investment allocations have usually accounted for less than 30 percent. From that perspective, economist Nabil Jabbar al-Ali argues, Iraq has long functioned in practice under a 1/12-style system, even when budgets were formally approved.
Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Ali said the incoming government is likely to continue relying on the 1/12 rule because it guarantees operational spending at a time when oil revenues are insufficient to finance major projects. He added that the same revenue shortfall was behind the government’s failure to pass a budget last year.
Even if a budget is eventually submitted next year, al-Ali expects its primary focus to be clearing accumulated debts —particularly payments owed to contractors and companies— rather than launching new investment initiatives.
Under Iraq’s amended Financial Management Law of 2019, spending in the absence of an approved budget is capped at one-twelfth or less of the previous year’s actual current expenditures, excluding non-recurring expenses. This mechanism remains in force until the federal budget law is ratified. The law also stipulates that if a budget is not approved for a given fiscal year, the previous year’s final accounts become the basis for the new year’s financial data and must be submitted to parliament for approval.
Iraq has faced similar paralysis before. In 2015, the government did not submit the schedules of its planned three-year budget, reportedly to avoid political exploitation during an election period. More recently, the outgoing government approved a record-high three-year budget for 2023, 2024, and 2025, each exceeding 200 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $152.7 billion), with projected deficits of roughly 60 trillion dinars per year.
For economist Ali Karim Ithheib, the absence of a budget is far from a technical inconvenience. He warned that it effectively freezes the country, halting projects, public hiring, and development plans at a time when Iraq is already grappling with a financial and liquidity crisis.
Read more: Deficit soars, projects freeze: Iraq heads into 2026 with NO BUDGET
Ithheib said Iraq’s near-total dependence on oil revenues leaves it vulnerable to what he described as “financial chaos” whenever prices fall, exposing the absence of long-term fiscal planning. The consequences are felt directly by citizens through fewer job opportunities and deteriorating services, while investors, both local and foreign, are discouraged by the lack of a stable financial vision, threatening broader macroeconomic stability.
While the 1/12 rule may keep the state functioning at a basic level, Ithheib stressed that it is “a temporary lifeline, not a fiscal policy suitable for running a country the size of Iraq.”
Under this system, spending is effectively confined to salaries and routine operational costs, leaving no room to launch new projects or complete stalled ones. Contractors and companies are among the hardest hit, as delayed payments force some to suspend work or withdraw entirely, fueling unemployment and weakening the local market. Prolonged reliance on the 1/12 rule, Ithheib added, erodes confidence in Iraq’s economic environment and deepens investor hesitation.
Despite parliamentary elections held in October 2025, a new government has yet to form. Lawmakers remain locked in disputes over electing a president, who would then nominate a prime ministerial candidate from the largest bloc. Negotiations among political forces continue, but expectations are growing that the crisis could drag on, given constitutional timelines that allow a prime minister-designate up to 30 days to present a cabinet and seek parliamentary confidence.
Economist Mustafa al-Faraj painted an even bleaker picture, saying several companies and contractors have already declared bankruptcy and begun liquidating assets due to unpaid government dues stemming from the absence of a budget. The halt in public hiring and the slowdown in private-sector activity, he warned, are compounding unemployment and economic strain.
Based on current indicators, al-Faraj said, a new government is unlikely to be formed before mid-year, making it almost impossible to pass a budget for the current fiscal year and pushing the problem into the next one.
“No country can function without a budget and rely solely on operational spending…This approach shuts down projects, freezes promotions, and ultimately harms both citizens and public employees.”
As Iraq drifts deeper into another year without a comprehensive budget, the economists agree on one point: the 1/12 rule may keep salaries flowing, but it cannot substitute for a coherent fiscal strategy, nor can it sustain an economy already strained by oil dependence, political deadlock, and eroding confidence.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
DINAR REVALUATION HIGHLIGHTS: Maliki Rejected 10–2 | Political Noise, IQD Timing & RV Signals Align
Political developments in Iraq are accelerating, and according to Frank26, the recent 10–2 rejection of Nouri al-Maliki by the Coordination Framework is far more than routine politics. IMO, this is a calculated move tied directly to Iraq’s monetary reform and the timing of the Iraqi dinar (IQD).
What many see as chaos, Frank26 describes as strategic noise.
U.S. & Trump Influence Intensifies in Iraqi Politics (IMO)
Frank26 highlights that the United States publicly rejecting Maliki as prime minister is a powerful signal:
Washington is shaping the political landscape
A different candidate is being supported
Iraq is being pushed toward normalized governance
IMO, this is not spontaneous — it’s pre-planned political maneuvering.
Frank26 believes these moves align with broader U.S. strategic goals tied to economic reform, security, and currency stability.
Political “Noise” vs. Economic Reality
Shifting narratives around:
Maliki
Prime Minister al-Sudani
Election rumors and coalition drama
…are described by Frank26 as intentional distractions.
IMO, the louder the political noise, the closer Iraq is to resolution.
The real focus remains economic, not theatrical politics.
The Anchor Point: Government Formation & the IQD (IMO)
Frank26 is very clear on one core principle:
The IQD exchange rate will NOT change until the government is fully formed and internationally recognized.
Political stability is the anchor point for:
Exchange rate movement
Monetary reform implementation
Global confidence in Iraq’s economy
No shortcuts. No exceptions.
ARIEL: The Playbook Behind a Revaluation in the Making
Ariel adds another layer, outlining what he calls a strategic revaluation playbook.
Key Strategic Highlights (IMO)
Approximately $80 billion in frozen assets targeted for repatriation
Distribution of lower denomination notes tied to regulatory reform
Green Zone meetings (since Jan 15) reportedly focus on:
IQD release timing
ISO-20022 crypto & banking compliance
Cracking down on illicit financial channels
Basra: The Oil & IQD Connection (IMO)
Ariel identifies Basra as a potential hub for:
Dinar-denominated oil trading
Launch window discussed as early as April
Reducing oil smuggling
Shifting regional trade dynamics
This move could reposition Iraq as:
A BRICS-aligned economic partner
A counterweight to Iranian influence
A player in reducing dollar-centric trade dominance
Bruce (WiserNow): Why Redemption Centers Matter
Bruce from WiserNow focuses on the logistics of the RV.
Redemption Centers Explained (IMO)
Redemption centers are where higher contract rates for currencies like IQD are expected
Accessed via 800-number call centers
Appointments set for private exchanges
Bruce reports that:
System tests are complete
Screens at redemption centers show multiple currencies:
IQD
Dong
ZIM (redeemable ONLY at redemption centers)
Why the Silence Is a Powerful Signal (IMO)
Bruce emphasizes something many overlook:
Silence is not delay — silence is movement.
The lack of public announcements is interpreted as:
Final coordination
Security protocols
Readiness without exposure
Featured Snippet (Google Optimized)
Why is Maliki’s rejection important for the IQD?
According to Frank26, rejecting Maliki signals political stabilization aligned with U.S. strategy, which is required before Iraq’s exchange rate and monetary reform can move forward.
Quick Q&A (SEO Boost)
Q: Why was Maliki rejected 10–2?
A: IMO, it reflects U.S. influence and a push to stabilize Iraq politically before economic reform.
Q: Can the IQD revalue without a government?
A: No. Frank26 stresses that a fully formed and recognized government is mandatory.
Q: What role do redemption centers play?
A: They are reportedly where higher contract exchange rates may be offered during the RV process.
Q: Why is there so much political noise right now?
A: IMO, it’s perception management — distraction while real economic work is completed.
Final Thoughts (IMO)
Frank26 frames the moment clearly:
Political rejection = alignment
Noise = nearing resolution
Silence = preparation
Stability = currency movement
IMO, when politics settle, the economics will speak loudly.
Disclaimer
⚠️ This post reflects opinions and analysis (IMO).
It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
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FRAN26: 10 Out of 12 — Maliki Rejected by Coordination Framework
Key Political & IQD Impact Highlights
• Trump/US influence in Iraqi politics intensified — US publicly rejected Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, signaling support for another candidate and shaping the political landscape.
• Signals of pre-planned political maneuvering suggest that Washington is exerting pressure to normalize Iraq’s governance in line with its broader strategic goals.
• The shifting narratives around Maliki, al-Sudani, and election outcomes are described as political “noise” designed to distract from the core economic process.
• The Iraqi dinar (IQD) exchange rate is emphasized as not changing until the government is fully formed and recognized — political stability remains the anchor point for any currency movement.
• The article frames US political messaging as strategic perception control rather than spontaneous upheaval, asserting that the louder the noise, the closer Iraq may be to resolution.
ARIEL: Brief IQD Update — The Playbook Behind a Revaluation in the Making
Top Strategic & Economic Highlights
• Ariel outlines a strategic “playbook” centered on accelerating Iraq’s currency revaluation by using geopolitical and financial levers.
• The plan discussed includes repatriating roughly $80B in frozen assets for distribution of lower notes, tying IQD distribution to broader regulatory reforms.
• Green Zone meetings since January 15 are reported to focus on synchronizing IQD release with crypto regulation (ISO-20022) and cracking down on illicit financial channels.
• Basra is identified as a potential hub for dinar-denominated oil trading starting in April, aimed at cutting smuggling and shifting global trade dynamics.
• The broader narrative ties Iraq’s revaluation to weakening Iran’s influence, repositioning Iraq as an alternative economic partner (BRICS focus), and altering dollar-centric global trade imbalances.
Bruce from WiserFRAN26: 10 Out of 12 — Maliki Rejected by Coordination Framework
Key Political & IQD Impact Highlights
• Trump/US influence in Iraqi politics intensified — US publicly rejected Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, signaling support for another candidate and shaping the political landscape.
• Signals of pre-planned political maneuvering suggest that Washington is exerting pressure to normalize Iraq’s governance in line with its broader strategic goals.
• The shifting narratives around Maliki, al-Sudani, and election outcomes are described as political “noise” designed to distract from the core economic process.
• The Iraqi dinar (IQD) exchange rate is emphasized as not changing until the government is fully formed and recognized — political stability remains the anchor point for any currency movement.
• The article frames US political messaging as strategic perception control rather than spontaneous upheaval, asserting that the louder the noise, the closer Iraq may be to resolution.
Bruce from WiserNow: Why Redemption Centers Matter & Why the Silence Is a Powerful Signal
Core Redemption & RV Logistics Highlights
• Recent WiserNow/Bruce updates emphasize that redemption centers are central to the anticipated currency revaluation/redemption process — they are where higher “contract rates” for currencies like the Iraqi Dinar will supposedly be offered.
• Redemption centers are linked to 800-number call centers where holders will set appointments for currency exchange; the contract rate for IQD is said to be highest there.
• Tests of 800-number systems and redemption center screens have reportedly been completed, suggesting operational readiness for appointments and exchanges.
• The “silence” — a lack of public announcements — is interpreted by followers as a sign that things are moving forward behind the scenes, not delayed. Quiet signals, in this context, are taken as implicit progress.
• Bruce’s intel also notes that multiple currencies (e.g., IQD, Dong, Zim) have been appearing on redemption center screens, and ZIM is only redeemable through these centers, underscoring their importance. Now: Why Redemption Centers Matter & Why the Silence Is a Powerful Signal
Core Redemption & RV Logistics Highlights
• Recent WiserNow/Bruce updates emphasize that redemption centers are central to the anticipated currency revaluation/redemption process — they are where higher “contract rates” for currencies like the Iraqi Dinar will supposedly be offered.
• Redemption centers are linked to 800-number call centers where holders will set appointments for currency exchange; the contract rate for IQD is said to be highest there.
• Tests of 800-number systems and redemption center screens have reportedly been completed, suggesting operational readiness for appointments and exchanges.
• The “silence” — a lack of public announcements — is interpreted by followers as a sign that things are moving forward behind the scenes, not delayed. Quiet signals, in this context, are taken as implicit progress.
• Bruce’s intel also notes that multiple currencies (e.g., IQD, Dong, Zim) have been appearing on redemption center screens, and ZIM is only redeemable through these centers, underscoring their importance.
US-Iran Muscat talks: A diplomatic opening shadowed by red lines
Shafaq News– Tehran/ Washington/ Muscat
At a moment of heightened regional fragility, talks between the United States and Iran in Muscat have reopened a long-dormant diplomatic channel, offering a limited but notable attempt to contain escalation amid mounting fears of a wider military confrontation.
The first round of nuclear negotiations concluded in Muscat between a US delegation led by Envoy Steve Witkoff and an Iranian team headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with assessments from both sides pointing to an understanding to resume talks in the coming days.
Speaking after the meetings, Araghchi said the discussions addressed Iran’s interests and the “rights of the Iranian people,” characterizing the atmosphere as positive and confirming agreement on continuing negotiations within a clearer framework. He cautioned, however, that a degree of mistrust persists between the two sides, noting that the process remains at an early stage.
While expectations of a comprehensive agreement remain tempered, most readings converge on the view that the Muscat talks are aimed more at managing the crisis and preventing escalation than at delivering a rapid breakthrough. The talks unfold against the backdrop of rigid red lines, sustained US pressure, and Iran’s insistence on what it frames as non-negotiable sovereign rights.
Despite the charged environment of threats and counter-pressure, analysts argue that the very convening of the talks reflects a mutual, if cautious, interest in avoiding war and exploring political off-ramps from an increasingly volatile nuclear standoff.
Avoiding War
Radhwan Qassem, founder of the ProGene Center for Strategic Studies and International Relations, said the core significance of the talks lies in the fact that they took place at all. “This indicates that the United States and President Donald Trump do not want to go to war with Iran, and that Tehran, in turn, does not seek such a war,” Qassem told Shafaq News.
He argued that both sides are aiming for negotiations that remain positive and eventually reach “safe ground,” pointing to Washington’s acceptance of Muscat as the venue —rather than Turkiye— as a diplomatic gain for Iran. Qassem also noted what he described as US openness to enrichment levels above those set in the 2015 nuclear deal, which capped enrichment at 3.5%.
Qassem said Washington may be inclined to prolong the negotiating process, particularly as the US midterm elections approach. “Trump does not want a military confrontation at this stage, given its potential negative impact on his electoral interests and on the Republican Party,” he said.
In his view, the Muscat round helped push back the immediate risk of war and eased Israeli pressure for a military option, reflecting a reduced US appetite for confrontation with Iran. Regardless of near-term outcomes, Qassem said Iran has already secured political gains by buying time to rebuild confidence and lay the groundwork for deeper negotiations that could eventually avert a return to military escalation.
Sovereign Rights
From Tehran’s perspective, political analyst Ali Akbar Barzouni said Iran entered the talks “to defend its sovereignty and legitimate rights, not from a position of weakness.”
Barzouni told Shafaq News that Iran’s stance rests on several fixed pillars, foremost among them its insistence on uranium enrichment as a sovereign right guaranteed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Any future agreement, he said, must explicitly recognize that right, with Iran maintaining that its nuclear program is purely peaceful.
On Iran’s missile program, Barzouni said Tehran considers its capabilities a “red line” and not subject to negotiation, viewing them as an integral part of national defense. Iran’s regional alliances, he added, fall within its security policy and cannot be placed on the negotiating table.
Lifting economic sanctions remains a central Iranian demand, Barzouni said —not symbolically, but in tangible terms— alongside guarantees that would prevent a repeat of Washington’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal. He stressed that Iran does not seek war, but remains prepared for all scenarios should escalation be imposed.
A sharper Reading
Political analyst and Iran expert Saeed Shawardi offered a more confrontational assessment, arguing that the talks began amid an intense US “psychological war,” marked by threats of withdrawal and sustained media and political pressure intended to influence Iranian decision-making.
Shawardi told Shafaq News that Tehran responded by setting firm boundaries from the outset, rejecting concessions and insisting that Washington recognize Iran’s nuclear rights and engage based on parity rather than dictates.
He said the United States failed to draw Iran into negotiations over non-nuclear files such as missiles, defense capabilities, or regional alliances. Tehran, he noted, rejected these demands outright, limiting the talks to the nuclear issue and insisting on an indirect format, while also determining Muscat as the venue after Washington had preferred Turkiye, moves he described as US concessions extended only to a counterpart with leverage.
Read more: Iran between revolution and state: The future of Tehran’s support for armed groups
According to Shawardi, the current phase involves internal assessments following the initial rounds, with further talks likely in the coming days. He said Iran remains unwilling to relinquish its nuclear rights but is prepared to offer guarantees to the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that its program will remain peaceful. In return, Tehran demands the full lifting of sanctions and an end to what it sees as coercive US policies. Shawardi warned that continued pressure, threats, and interference would further diminish prospects for an agreement.
“Serious” Talks
Iranian state media reported on Friday that negotiations in Muscat are likely to continue for several days, describing the atmosphere as “more serious” than in previous rounds. Iranian television said that any joint statement would represent a step forward.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry had earlier announced the start of the first round of talks, while media reported that Araghchi met Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi ahead of the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) was expected to join the Muscat discussions.
Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington wants the talks to address Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, support for armed groups across the region, and its domestic governance. Iran, by contrast, has insisted that Araghchi and Witkoff discuss the nuclear file only, saying it entered the talks “from a position of strength” and to reach a fair and mutually acceptable understanding that preserves its dignity.
For now, the Muscat channel appears less a path to swift resolution than a mechanism to prevent escalation from spiraling out of control —an uneasy but deliberate pause in one of the region’s most enduring and consequential standoffs.
Read more: US, Israel, and Iran step up military readiness as regional tensions grow
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
Frank26: Epic Sunday for Iraq’s Monetary Reform | Dinar Revaluation Update
Frank26: Why This Sunday Could Be EPIC for Iraq’s Monetary Reform (IMO)
The conversation surrounding Iraq’s monetary reform and the potential revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar has intensified dramatically over the past few weeks. According to Frank26, the timing, coordination, and international involvement suggest that this coming Sunday may be pivotal for Iraq’s financial future.
As always, this analysis is shared strictly as IMO (In My Opinion), based on long-term observation, patterns, and unfolding developments inside Iraq, the CBI, and the GOI.
U.S. Treasury, Banks, and the Lower Notes (IMO)
Frank26 believes that American soldiers are playing a logistical and security role, delivering lower denomination notes to qualified banks that are:
Fully vetted
Working directly with the United States Treasury
Aligned with monetary reform compliance standards
IMO, this process is about security and stability, not speculation.
Frank26 suggests that Donald Trump is demanding strong safeguards before allowing the introduction of a new exchange rate for Iraq, especially due to resistance and delays from the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI).
Why the CBI Has Been the Bottleneck (IMO)
According to Frank26, the CBI has been stubborn in implementing the new exchange rate structure. This hesitation is believed to be the reason external pressure and oversight were introduced.
IMO, Iraq’s monetary reform is too important to fail, not only for Iraqi citizens, but for the international financial system.
This Sunday: A Pivotal Moment for Iraq (IMO)
Frank26 emphasizes that this coming Sunday is not just another date.
“We didn’t come here for the last two months to twiddle our thumbs.”
Since international involvement intensified, major accomplishments have reportedly emerged in just the last 2–3 weeks, including:
Increased clarity in monetary reform
Stronger alignment between the CBI and GOI
Political stabilization efforts
Blocking destabilizing political figures from regaining power
One major highlight is ensuring that Nouri al-Maliki does not regain influence, which Frank26 sees as critical to reform success.
Monetary Reform Is Now Clearly Defined (IMO)
Frank26 notes that the moment international teams arrived, Iraq’s monetary reform became:
Better structured
More transparent
More visible to Iraqi citizens
More credible to the international community
This shift marks a transition from secrecy to preparation.
Why This Moment Feels Different
Unlike previous years, Frank26 believes that:
Iraq is under active supervision
The reform is no longer theoretical
Systems, security, and banking infrastructure are being aligned
The world is watching, not waiting
IMO, this is no longer about “if”, but about execution.
Frank26’s Prayer and Final Thoughts (IMO)
Frank26 closes with a hopeful but grounded message:
“It is my prayer… for us… that this Sunday we see many things come together.”
IMO, this Sunday is EPIC.
Featured Snippet (Google Optimized)
Why is this Sunday important for Iraq’s monetary reform?
According to Frank26, this Sunday may mark a key moment where international oversight, CBI compliance, political stability, and banking readiness align to advance Iraq’s long-awaited monetary reform.
Quick Q&A Section (SEO Boost)
Q: What is Iraq’s monetary reform?
A: It refers to restructuring Iraq’s currency system, including exchange rates, banking stability, and integration into the global financial system.
Q: Who is Frank26?
A: Frank26 is a well-known commentator who shares opinions and analysis on Iraq’s monetary reform and the Iraqi Dinar.
Q: Is this information confirmed?
A: No. This post reflects IMO (In My Opinion) analysis and should not be considered financial advice.
Q: Why are lower denomination notes important?
A: Lower notes are typically associated with a functional domestic economy and often signal preparation for a rate adjustment.
Disclaimer
⚠️ This content is shared for informational and opinion purposes only (IMO).
It is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
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Frank26
IMO American soldiers will deliver the lower notes to the banks that have qualified and are working with the United States Treasury and Donald Trump on your monetary reform...Trump is demanding security and stability for this new exchange rate that we are introducing to [Iraq] because the CBI is too stubborn to introduce it...IMO
This coming Sunday is very pivotal for your success of [Iraq]. IMO we didn't come there for the last two months to twiddle our thumbs and pick our noses. You see very well what has happened since we've arrived. Some amazing accomplishments have been revealed in the last 2 to 3 weeks because of what we brought over and because of what we are doing at the CBI, let alone at the GOI, by making sure Maliki doesn't even consider he has a chance to be prime minister.
The moment we arrived, the monetary reform started to become better defined...not only to the Iraqi citizens but to the rest of the international world...It is my prayer...for us that Sunday we see many things come together...This Sunday is Epic...
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