FOUR MONTHS AFTER THE IRAQI ELECTIONS: THE WAR MAY LEAD TO AN EXTENSION OF AL-SUDANI’S TERM.
More than four months after the Iraqi parliamentary elections, Baghdad remains mired in a profound political deadlock. The winning parties have been unable to form a new government, and the internal situation is further complicated by infighting among political blocs and conflicting regional and international interests.
This impasse raises questions about the future of the democratic process and the possibility of the caretaker government, headed by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, remaining in power longer than anticipated, especially given the escalating military tensions in the region between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
The elections, held amid promises of restoring political stability and ending the state of division, produced a complex parliamentary landscape that prevented any coalition from forming a clear majority government, plunging the country back into a cycle of protracted negotiations and shifting alliances. With disputes persisting over the distribution of sovereign and ministerial posts, the post-election period has become a true test of the Iraqi political system’s ability to produce a stable executive authority within constitutional timeframes.
In contrast, the Iraqi scene is no longer separate from the accelerating regional developments, as the Middle East is witnessing a military escalation and an exchange of threats between international and regional powers, which has directly affected the political calculations within Iraq, as it is a sensitive arena of balance between American and Iranian influence.
A new security and political reality
Mahmoud Al-Hayani, a member of the Coordination Framework, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that “regional security developments and the escalating military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel, along with the involvement of some Iraqi factions in the confrontation, have directly impacted the course of political dialogues regarding the formation of the new Iraqi government, and political priorities have shifted towards managing security risks and avoiding an executive vacuum in the country.”
Al-Hayani explained that “the exceptional circumstances that the region is going through have imposed a new political and security reality inside Iraq, which has led to a clear slowdown in the negotiations to form the government, after most of the discussions between the political forces turned to how to protect internal stability and prepare for any possible repercussions of the regional conflict.”
He added that “the escalation of military tension and the possibility of expanding the scope of the confrontation have prompted the forces of the Coordination Framework to reassess their political options. There is a trend within the framework that supports renewing the mandate of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, considering that the current stage requires the continuation of the same executive leadership to ensure the stability of security and administrative decisions, and to avoid entering into a governmental vacuum that could benefit the parties affected by the crisis.”
Al-Hayani added that “there is another opinion within the coordination framework that leans towards keeping the current government and granting it full powers instead of it continuing as a caretaker government, through political and legislative understandings that allow it to make urgent strategic decisions to confront any security or economic emergency that may result from the ongoing war in the region.”
He revealed that “the coordination framework is conducting intensive consultations with other political forces to reach a national consensus that prevents the disruption of state institutions. The current stage requires realistic decisions far removed from traditional political rivalries, because any governmental vacuum in light of regional tension may multiply the security challenges within the country. The coming days will witness crucial political meetings to decide the form of managing the transitional phase, whether through renewing the mandate of the current government or temporarily establishing its full powers, in order to ensure the state’s readiness to confront the possible scenarios resulting from the military escalation in the region.”
Disagreements are the “key factor”
For his part, political analyst Hussein al-Asaad told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that “linking the delay in forming the new government to the military tensions in the region does not reflect the full picture of the political crisis in the country. Internal disputes between political forces are still the main factor in disrupting dialogues, and not just the escalation between Iran, the United States and Israel.”
At least 4 members of the Popular Mobilization Forces were killed in a bombing in western Iraq.
At least four members of the Popular Mobilization Forces were killed in a bombing of the city of Qaim, which borders Syria in western Iraq, two security sources told AFP on Monday.
A security official reported that “4 members of the Popular Mobilization Forces security were killed and three others were wounded (…) in a bombing that targeted their presence at the ‘Martyr Haider’ checkpoint at the entrance to the city of Al-Qaim” in Anbar province.
For his part, another security official said that the strike, which he attributed to the United States, resulted in the deaths of five personnel. He explained that the targeted checkpoint housed “members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Anbar Operations Command, and the Federal Police.”