The Numbers Are Reassuring... But Are The Reserves Sufficient To Protect The Dinar?… The Shocking Truth: The Danger Lies Not In The Market, But In The State Itself
Baghdad Today – Baghdad While the parallel market is testing the limits of monetary policy, the Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih , offered explicit reassurance: the official exchange rate will remain at 1,320 dinars, and the recent fluctuations are merely "short-term noise." But behind this apparent calm lies a larger question concerning the state's ability to bolster its resources without jeopardizing monetary stability.
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Economist Ahmed Abdel Rabbo interprets Saleh’s statements as part of a broader strategy; in his view, price stability is not merely a financial option but a political signal that the incoming government will not approach adjusting the exchange rate in its first year, in recognition of the magnitude of the inflationary impact that any step in this direction could have.
Abdel Rabbo tells Baghdad Today that the real challenge lies not in the exchange rate but in the revenue structure itself. He explains that Iraq loses billions of dollars annually through weak customs procedures, a paper-based tax system, and massive import flows that keep the demand for dollars high.
In his view, increasing revenue requires less of a change in the exchange rate and more of a complete customs reform, a shift to electronic tax collection, and linking tax databases to foreign trade, banks, and border crossings.
What Abdel Rabbo points out aligns with part of Mazhar Saleh's vision: strong foreign reserves provide cover for the official exchange rate, and inflation, which has fallen to 2.5%, reflects the success of monetary policy in stabilizing prices. However, without addressing the loopholes in tax collection, evasion, and invoice manipulation, the parallel market will remain capable of generating speculative waves whenever a rumor or incomplete information emerges.
Abdel Rabbo also believes that part of the pressure on the dollar is a result of an economic structure that relies on consumer imports, which makes supporting agriculture, food industries, building materials and medicines not only a development option, but also an indirect monetary policy that reduces the need for the dollar and improves the balance of payments.
In light of this scenario, the equation for stability seems clear: protecting the dinar is not achieved by changing the price, but by reforming the economy from the bottom up.
What Saleh said about the stability of the reserves provides the necessary cover, but what Abd Rabbo is proposing represents the long road that cannot be avoided if the state wants a stable exchange rate that is not shaken by "temporary noise". Source: Baghdad Today + Agencies https://baghdadtoday.news/288554-.html
