A fixed or fixed exchange system for the Iraqi dinar, 30 APRIL

  A fixed or fixed exchange system for the Iraqi dinar

Mahmoud Dagher  4- 29-2024

First: a fixed system:

 Rentier countries seek to adopt a fixed exchange system (pegged) to a strong foreign currency or several currencies (a basket of currencies) to ensure the stability of foreign transactions, as long as they export one depleted commodity and import many goods and services, and they are called “small open countries.”

 Despite the agreement that the floating currency system is considered the best in terms of relative response to the performance of the external economy and the lack of need for sometimes excessive use of foreign reserves to defend the official value in the peg system, the abundance of reserves and the need for stability in foreign transactions have a major impact on the economy. Overall, rentier countries are likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate system.

Iraq is one of the economies whose monetary authority adopts an openly fixed exchange rate system (De jure) and strives to be realistically fixed (De facto). The Iraqi dinar’s peg is classified as a “soft peg” peg that includes accepting a fluctuation of no more than 2% during the period. The last 6 months of IMF audit and 1% average volatility continuously (ereare,IMF,2021).

When dealing with the dinar exchange rate, a distinction must be made between the fixed exchange rate that affects the market, and the contractual exchange rate between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance when selling its dollars to the central bank (which is proven in the budget for the public revenue account), and the market exchange rate remains the most important because it is dealt with in the markets as a value. Reference.

The official dinar exchange rate went through (roughly) the following stages :

From 2004 – December 2020: Buying: 1190 Selling: 1200

From the end of 2020 - February 2023: Buy: 1460 Sell: 1470

From February 2023 until now: Buying: 1310 Selling: 1320

It is noted that there are 10 points (10 dinars) between purchasing banking and non-banking financial units (exchange companies) and selling them to merchants (transfers/credits) or to individuals (in cash) (noting that there is a change within the ten points for motivational purposes, but it is not extensive)

Therefore, during the years 2020-2023, the monetary authority did not leave the fixed exchange system, but rather moved from one fixed exchange rate to another fixed exchange rate, according to what it saw fit in the interest of the overall economy and well-being.

It is natural that the repeated transfers from one constant to another over a short period of time had an impact on the balance levels of the dinar and the size of the gap between the official and market exchange rates. This was reflected in the shifting of financial positions in favor of those holding the dollar again and again in favor of those holding the dinar

. It even had an impact in changing The financial positions of creditors and debtors at each change, noting that those with dinar salaries and income are most affected by the gaps and fluctuations between the official value and the market value of the dinar, especially since changing the amount of the assessment was reduced (12-20-2020) and then raised (2-7-2023). It has a clear positive impact even on the macroeconomy, in addition to being a deviation from targeting stability by essentially adopting a fixed exchange rate system.

"RV UPDATE" BY NADER FROM MID EAST, 30 APRIL

 Nader From The Mid East 

  People calling me since last Thursday asking me, 'We hearing the exchange rate will change on Monday?'  ...I didn't see anything about Monday.  I see really good news.  I believe with all this going on they should go for it.  I think they're ready.  I don't know when or why not.  Some people saying Monday...before the end of the month...May... July.  It's all prediction.  I wish it could happen now.  Today...Let's watch it...

   Today I was watching the news.  I was watching Sudani in the street and it got me all excited.  Got me happy.  It's been a while we didn't see a leader who cares about the people, who cares about the country...He was walking in the street at least for 2 hours...It's great to see that.  He give confidence.  It gives hope.  I hope he continues like that...It's amazing what's going on in Iraq.  I love it.

This visit to United States it was really good.  All this contracts they signed...all these people want to go to Iraq to do business, start businesses.  It's great.  Now they have the ball in their hands so we see what they're going to do with it.  They're going to score or pass on the side again? 

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/04/rv-update-by-nader-from-mid-east-26.html

Iraqi Dinar | US Treasury Go to Any Bank Exchange IQD At New Rate| Iraqi...

North Oil Company revives an oil well at Batma field in Nineveh, 30 APRIL

North Oil Company revives an oil well at Batma field in Nineveh

Shafaq News/ On Monday, a source at the North Oil Company revealed that technical and engineering teams have successfully revived an oil well in the "Batma" oil field in Nineveh governorate, northern Iraq. 

The well had previously ceased production due to pump failure, resulting in a halt in operations. Before the failure, the well had yielded approximately one thousand barrels per day.

The teams are now focused on increasing the field's production to reach 10,000 barrels per day.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that "Nineveh Oil Fields Administration and Materials Authority, following the guidance of North Oil Company's General Manager, Barkan Hassan Abdullah, started rehabilitating the Batma Well No. 3 by extracting 107 pieces of production tubing and the Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) from the well. Additionally, the electrical cable for the pump was retrieved." 

Furthermore, the source pointed out that an engineering and technical team has commenced the development of a comprehensive plan that aims to enhance the capabilities of oil fields across Nineveh Governorate, ultimately leading to increased production.

"RV UPDATE" BY MARKZ, 30 APRIL

 MarkZ  

 [via PDK]   Comment:  This week sure feels promising to me.  MarkZ:  I agree – it does feel promising.  I am expecting a lot of key information to come out this week.

 In Iraq “Iraq’s Federal Board of Supreme Audit exposes US $600 million corruption scandal involving “ghost travelers”  Iraq allowed people to get US cash when they said they were going to travel abroad. People were getting cash and were not traveling at all…and the money went to the parallel markets….  The US claims this is “corruption”  This is more proof positive they need to change that dinar rate as soon as possible.

There is some anticipation from one of my redemption center contacts who is expecting to work this weekend….  I take that as positive... 

...a little more news out of Vietnam...they continue to crackdown on corruption: “Vietnam jails soft drink tycoon for eight years in $40M fraud case”  ...I am leaning toward they are cleaning the system to change the value of the VND.

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/04/rv-update-by-markz-29-april.html

🔥 Iraqi Dinar 🔥 Have a Big Exchange Rate 🔥 News Guru Intel Update Value ...

Expert attributes drop of USD exchange rate to improved economy, 30 APRIL

Expert attributes drop of USD exchange rate to improved economy

Shafaq New/ The Iraqi dinar has gained ground against the U.S. dollar in recent days, with exchange rates falling to 1400 dinars per dollar, Jabbar Koran, the official spokesperson for the Sulaimaniyah currency market, said.

Koran attributed the dinar's strength to a combination of factors, including the positive impact of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's recent visit to Washington, the increased use of smart cards for dollar withdrawals, and the growing trade between Iraq and Turkiye, which is now conducted in both Iraqi dinars and Turkish liras.

"Al-Sudani's visit to Washington has led to increased U.S. support for the Iraqi economy and optimism among American parties regarding Iraq's infrastructure and banking reforms," Koran told Shafaq News Agency. "This has boosted confidence in the Iraqi economy and reduced demand for dollars."

Koran also highlighted the growing use of smart cards, which allow account holders to withdraw dollars from abroad. This, he explained, has reduced the need for individuals to purchase dollars locally, further contributing to the dinar's appreciation.

The recent agreement between Iraq and Turkiye to conduct bilateral trade in their respective currencies has also played a role in strengthening the dinar. "With an annual trade volume between the two countries ranging from 20 to 24 billion dollars, this shift away from dollar-denominated transactions has decreased the demand for U.S. currency in Iraq."

"The Iraqi central bank has been encouraging the use of alternative currencies in international transactions," he said. "A recent agreement with Saudi Arabia, for instance, allows for future trade to be settled in the respective national currencies of both countries."

"In the past, citizens would convert a portion of their salaries into dollars to cover housing loans, car payments, or other outstanding obligations," Koran explained. "However, with the increasing availability of alternative payment methods and the promotion of the dinar, people are no longer as reliant on the dollar."

While Koran expects the dollar to stabilize around 1400 dinars in the near term, he acknowledged the possibility of further appreciation, potentially reaching 1420 dinars per dollar. The central bank, he noted, has achieved its target for the exchange rate, but market dynamics could lead to further gains for the dinar.