A fixed or fixed exchange system for the Iraqi dinar, 30 APRIL

  A fixed or fixed exchange system for the Iraqi dinar

Mahmoud Dagher  4- 29-2024

First: a fixed system:

 Rentier countries seek to adopt a fixed exchange system (pegged) to a strong foreign currency or several currencies (a basket of currencies) to ensure the stability of foreign transactions, as long as they export one depleted commodity and import many goods and services, and they are called “small open countries.”

 Despite the agreement that the floating currency system is considered the best in terms of relative response to the performance of the external economy and the lack of need for sometimes excessive use of foreign reserves to defend the official value in the peg system, the abundance of reserves and the need for stability in foreign transactions have a major impact on the economy. Overall, rentier countries are likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate system.

Iraq is one of the economies whose monetary authority adopts an openly fixed exchange rate system (De jure) and strives to be realistically fixed (De facto). The Iraqi dinar’s peg is classified as a “soft peg” peg that includes accepting a fluctuation of no more than 2% during the period. The last 6 months of IMF audit and 1% average volatility continuously (ereare,IMF,2021).

When dealing with the dinar exchange rate, a distinction must be made between the fixed exchange rate that affects the market, and the contractual exchange rate between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance when selling its dollars to the central bank (which is proven in the budget for the public revenue account), and the market exchange rate remains the most important because it is dealt with in the markets as a value. Reference.

The official dinar exchange rate went through (roughly) the following stages :

From 2004 – December 2020: Buying: 1190 Selling: 1200

From the end of 2020 - February 2023: Buy: 1460 Sell: 1470

From February 2023 until now: Buying: 1310 Selling: 1320

It is noted that there are 10 points (10 dinars) between purchasing banking and non-banking financial units (exchange companies) and selling them to merchants (transfers/credits) or to individuals (in cash) (noting that there is a change within the ten points for motivational purposes, but it is not extensive)

Therefore, during the years 2020-2023, the monetary authority did not leave the fixed exchange system, but rather moved from one fixed exchange rate to another fixed exchange rate, according to what it saw fit in the interest of the overall economy and well-being.

It is natural that the repeated transfers from one constant to another over a short period of time had an impact on the balance levels of the dinar and the size of the gap between the official and market exchange rates. This was reflected in the shifting of financial positions in favor of those holding the dollar again and again in favor of those holding the dinar

. It even had an impact in changing The financial positions of creditors and debtors at each change, noting that those with dinar salaries and income are most affected by the gaps and fluctuations between the official value and the market value of the dinar, especially since changing the amount of the assessment was reduced (12-20-2020) and then raised (2-7-2023). It has a clear positive impact even on the macroeconomy, in addition to being a deviation from targeting stability by essentially adopting a fixed exchange rate system.