Wednesday, December 24, 2025

MNT GOAT: Did You Hear the Fantastic News? All the Pieces Are Falling Into Place

MNT GOAT: Did You Hear the Fantastic News? All the Pieces Are Falling Into Place

For long-term Iraqi dinar investors, this update from MNT GOAT delivers some of the most encouraging signals yet. After years of concern, the issue of Iranian-backed militias, political instability, and delayed reforms appears to be reaching a turning point.

What we are witnessing is not a single event, but a series of interconnected developments unfolding according to a broader plan.

Militias: Investor Concerns May Finally Be Easing

Many investors have long believed that armed militias were the final major obstacle to Iraq’s full sovereignty and monetary reform.

Now, there is real cause for optimism:

As MNT GOAT notes, the sacrifices made to stabilize Iraq were not in vain. Beyond oil, Iraq is now positioned to benefit from:

  • Rising global oil demand

  • Growing non-oil revenues

  • Reduced reliance on oil credit mechanisms

Everything happening now is interconnected. This process was never meant to stand alone.

Good-Faith Disarmament: A Critical Window Opens

MNT GOAT shares a personal assessment that is widely echoed among observers:

If militias demonstrate good-faith disarmament in the coming days or weeks, the U.S. may consider its mandate satisfied.

However, one message remains firm:

👉 “Statements alone are not enough.”

With December 29 just days away, pressure is intense — and deliberate.

CBI Zero Removal: Timing Is No Coincidence

According to MNT GOAT’s CBI contact in Baghdad :

  • The CBI wants to begin the removal of the zeros around this same timeframe

  • Iraq’s government is playing catch-up

  • We should expect:

    • Articles announcing removal of large three-zero notes

    • A structured swap-out process

    • Updates to the CBI website, including images of new lower denominations

Important Clarification

This process will not look like what many U.S.-based “intel gurus” have dramatized:

  • ❌ No massive bank lines

  • ❌ No fireworks or celebrations

  • ❌ No chaotic public exchanges

Instead, it will be orderly, technical, and controlled.

Reality Check: This Is Not a Spectacle

MNT GOAT’s CBI contact laughed at the exaggerated expectations circulating online — and rightly so.

This event has been over-commercialized and distorted by:

  • Self-proclaimed gurus

  • Sensational narratives

  • Unrealistic public assumptions

In reality, monetary reform is boring by design — and that’s exactly how it should be.

US–Iraq Relations Enter a New Era

Another major article reinforces the shift:

“The Trump Administration Is Changing the Rules of War in Iraq: A Soft Power Strategy”

This marks a historic transformation:

  • From conflict → to partnership

  • From military oversight → to mutual respect

  • From dependency → to sovereign cooperation

As explained by Iraq’s Prime Minister’s Advisor for Foreign Relations, the cancellation of authorization to use force confirms:

  • Iraq is now a fully sovereign state

  • The era of war is officially over

  • Political stability is being reinforced

“We Will Make Iraq Great Again” — Yes, Really

In yet another striking development:

Trump Envoy Mark Savaya & Congressman Joe Wilson

  • Met recently in Washington

  • Savaya posted on X:

    “We will make Iraq great again.”

This public statement underscores a strong political commitment to Iraq’s success.

For investors, this kind of language matters.

Customs Reform: The ASYCUDA Moment Returns

One final but critical piece of the puzzle:

“A New Shift in Customs Procedures Is Expected at the Beginning of Next Year”

This brings us back to the ASYCUDA system, discussed years ago:

  • A globally used customs automation platform

  • Designed to:

    • Capture tariff revenues

    • Reduce corruption

    • Funnel funds directly to the federal treasury

At full capacity, customs revenues could rival oil income.

This is not speculation — it was a projection of Iraq’s future.

Featured Snippets (Google Discover Ready)

🔹 Are militias still blocking Iraq’s reforms?
US pressure and voluntary disarmament signals suggest this obstacle is finally being addressed.

🔹 Is the CBI preparing to remove the zeros?
Yes. Articles, swap-out signals, and upcoming CBI site updates point to imminent action.

🔹 How is US policy toward Iraq changing?
The Trump administration has shifted from conflict to partnership and mutual respect.

Q&A: MNT GOAT Fantastic News Explained

Q: Is December 29 significant?

A: Yes. Political, monetary, and security timelines converge around this date.

Q: Will there be chaos during zero removal?

A: No. The process will be structured and quiet.

Q: Why does customs reform matter?

A: It unlocks massive non-oil revenues and strengthens Iraq’s financial independence.

Q: Is this all connected?

A: Absolutely. None of these events stand alone.

Final Thoughts

This update truly earns its title: Fantastic News.

The convergence of:

  • Militia disarmament

  • CBI readiness

  • US–Iraq partnership

  • Customs revenue reform

suggests Iraq is stepping into a new chapter of sovereignty and growth.

📊 The plan is real. The timing is intentional. And momentum is building.

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MNT GOAT: DID YOU HEAR THE FANTASTIC NEWS?

As investors our worries about these militias could be over. I am very glad that the U.S. is standing up to Iranian influence in Iraq after all we did not sacrifice our soldiers for nothing in getting rid of Saddam Hussien. Was all this fuss over oil really worth it? I say this sarcastically as we all know it is as the demand for oil continually increases around the globe. Also with the increases in non-oil revenues, Iraq will not be able to divert some of this oil revenues (very little when compared) to allow for these oil credits to be cashed in over time. So, what we experience in this investment is a series of events that are all interconnected and can not stand alone. There is a plan being carried out.

Personally. I believe that if these militias must show some sort of ‘good faith’ disarmament in the coming days or week, the U.S. might be satisfied with this mandate they have made to Iraq. Remember “Statements alone are not enough.” However, we don’t know what will happen and December 29th is just a week away. Personally, I also believe that the CBI wants to begin to conduct the removal of the zeros right around this timeframe and so we will see what happens. Remember that the GOI is playing catch up. My CBI contact also told me on my call over the weekend to Iraq that we will see articles about the removal of these larger three-zero notes and the swap out. 

She told me we already should have witnessed much recent news about the removal of the zeros and so pay close attention. She also said the CBI site will be updated with pictures of the newer lower denominations soon once the trigger is pulled to begin. She also warned me that the swap out may not occur exactly as we all think. She said there are NOT going to be big lines at the Iraqi banks to exchange, or huge celebrations with fireworks and music….she laughed at how silly many U.S. investors perceive this event, when it does occur. I concurred with her feedback as I too believe that these idiot so-called, self-proclaimed intel gurus in the U.S. have commercialized this entire ordeal and made it much more complicated that it really is going to be.

There is more promising news to tell today. I am not over yet! 😊

😊In the article titled “THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS CHANGING THE RULES OF WAR IN IRAQ: A SOFT POWER STRATEGY TO WRITE A NEW CHAPTER.” The title of the article speaks volumes of the Trump administration towards Iraq. Remember almost a year ago I said we just had to sit tight and see what this new Trump administration would do towards its foreign policy with Iraq and the middle east in general. Well… now we can read it and its all in black and white. Folks, this is exactly the kind of foreign policy we needed to be hearing from the U.S. This is now a partnership, like when a child steps out of childhood and can now make adult talk with his/her parents. The parent relationship turns to friendship. There are many reasons why this is good for both parties. In this regard I just wanted to bring this section from the article to reinforce this concept:

“From conflict to partnership”

“In this regard, the Prime Minister’s Advisor for Foreign Relations, Farhad Ala’a Al-Din, believes that the decision to cancel the authorization to use force against Iraq represents an important political and legal step, reflecting the fact that Iraq today is a fully sovereign state, and that the stage of war is now a thing of the past.

Alaa al-Din explained to Shafaq News Agency that the decision confirms the shift in the relationship with Washington from a logic of conflict to a logic of partnership and mutual respect, noting that its security implications are represented in strengthening the principle of sovereignty, supporting political stability, and establishing a normal relationship between the two countries.”

😊😊In the next article titled “TRUMP ENVOY AND JOE WILSON: WE WILL MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN” we read that Washington – Mark Savaya, President Donald Trump’s envoy, wrote on the “X” platform (formerly Twitter) on Thursday that he met with US Congressman Joe Wilson and it was a “great meeting.” “It was a great meeting with U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson and his team,” Savaya said in his post, adding, “We will make Iraq great again.” Folks can it get any better than this?

😊One more interesting topic for today includes the article titled “A NEW SHIFT IN CUSTOMS PROCEDURES IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR.” Again I want you to remember the past (years ago) and what we heard about the ASYCUDA system. We heard that if the GOI can reign in all this revenue into the coffers of the federal treasury this revenue could rival the oil revenues. The needed the internationally used ASYCUDA system to do this. This was NOT just a haphazard statement. It was a projection of the future revenues outside of the oil revenues. It is a huge part of the security away from sole oil revenues. No one, including all these silly economists, that Iraq is not on its way to enormous growth and revenues.  


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Nader from Mid East: 💰 Iraq Banking & Dinar News That Could Shake 2026! 🌍🔥

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ZIDANE: THE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON DECEMBER 29TH WILL DECIDE ON THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL AND CANNOT BE EXTENDED

ZIDANE: THE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON DECEMBER 29TH WILL DECIDE ON THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL AND CANNOT BE EXTENDED

The head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, confirmed that the session of the new House of Representatives scheduled for December 29 must end with the appointment of the Speaker of the Council and his two deputies, noting that it is not constitutionally or legally possible to postpone or extend it.

A statement from the judiciary, a copy of which was received by Al-Furat News, stated that: “This came during the reception of the President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, on Saturday, by the President of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party, Bafel Talabani.”

He added, “During the meeting, emphasis was placed on the importance of respecting the constitutional timelines for electing the three presidencies, in order to ensure the completion of the formation of the legislative and executive authorities.”

Ziad also stressed “the importance of deciding on the nomination of the candidate for the presidency of the republic within the constitutional period of thirty days after the election of the Speaker of Parliament on the 29th of this month.”

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MNT GOAT Update: Torn Currency Crisis, Digital Transition, and Why All Roads Point Forward

For those who have followed the RV saga from the beginning, one issue has quietly grown into a national crisis inside Iraq:
👉 massive stashes of physical cash stored in citizens’ homes.

While the Iraqi government has largely avoided addressing this issue publicly, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has raised the alarm multiple times. Today, yet another article confirms the severity of the situation — and why it matters more than ever.

The Torn Currency Crisis: A Symptom of a Deeper Problem

An Iraqi article titled:

“THE TORN CURRENCY: BETWEEN THE FAILURE OF PAPER CIRCULATION AND THE DELAY OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION”

reveals that damaged paper notes are not just an inconvenience — they are evidence of a systemic cash-management failure.

Key Quote from the Article

“The torn currency reveals a deeper flaw… a cash management crisis, a delay in automation, and a weakness in replacement mechanisms, which makes the citizen the weakest link.”

The burden falls on everyday Iraqis, caught between:

A Human Story from Baghdad

One passage captures the emotional toll vividly:

A government employee clutches a tattered 5,000-dinar note, taped together, rejected everywhere she goes.
“No one will take it from me,” she whispers in despair.

Small denominations — 250, 500, 1,000, and 5,000 dinars — have become both a financial and psychological burden.

Why Hasn’t the CBI Printed New Notes?

This is the critical question — and MNT GOAT went straight to a CBI contact in Baghdad for answers.

CBI’s Strategy Explained

  • The CBI does NOT want to increase paper currency

  • The goal is to reduce the monetary mass by two-thirds

  • Focus is on:

    • Digital banking

    • Electronic payments

    • Future polymer (plastic) lower-denomination notes

  • 100, 250, and 1,000 dinar notes will remain, but in a controlled system

This is intentional pressure — not neglect.

Digital Project + Removing the Zeros: Originally Targeted for December 1

According to the CBI contact:

  • The digital rollout and zero removal were originally targeted for December 1

  • Delays occurred due to:

    1. The digital platform not being technically ready

    2. Election complications and Iranian influence within government

New Internal Target

🗓 December 29 — if these issues are resolved.

Why December 29 Keeps Appearing Everywhere

Shortly after this conversation, a flood of confirming news appeared:

Key Political Developments

  • US demands armed groups not be included in the new Iraqi government

  • Federal Court ratified election results on December 14

  • Constitutional deadlines for forming government officially began

  • Parliament session on December 29:

    • Must elect the Speaker

    • Cannot be postponed or extended

    • Triggers appointment of the Prime Minister

Once parliament is operational, everything accelerates.

US Pressure and Iranian Influence: A Decisive Moment

The United States has made its position clear:

  • No political wings of armed groups in government

  • No second term hijacked by Iranian militias

  • Strong support for Prime Minister Al-Sudani, who won majority support

This geopolitical pressure aligns directly with CBI reform timing.

The Shocker: Militias Voluntarily Move Toward Disarmament

Just when optimism seemed fragile, this article dropped:

“SAVAYA IS PLEASED WITH THE FACTIONS’ MOVEMENTS AND STIPULATES A COMPLETE AND IRREVERSIBLE DISARMAMENT.”

🔥 This was the shocker.

For the first time:

  • Armed groups welcomed disarmament

  • Statements aligned with calls from religious authorities

  • The choice appeared voluntary, not forced

This is exactly what Iraq needed.

Savaya’s Warning: Statements Are Not Enough

US envoy Mark Savaya made the position unmistakably clear:

  • Disarmament must be:

    • Comprehensive

    • Irreversible

    • Legally binding

  • No armed formations outside state authority

  • Full monopoly of force must belong to the Iraqi state

  • Armed group members must transition legally into civilian life

Iraq now stands at a crossroads:

  • 🟢 Sovereignty and stability

  • 🔴 Disintegration and uncontrolled weapons

All signs indicate Iraq has chosen the high road.

Featured Snippets 

🔹 Why is torn currency a crisis in Iraq?
It reflects cash hoarding, weak circulation, delayed digital banking, and stresses the need for monetary reform.

🔹 Why won’t the CBI print more money?
The CBI aims to reduce monetary mass and shift to digital systems, not expand paper currency.

🔹 Why does disarmament matter for the RV?
State control of weapons is essential for sovereignty, financial reform, and international confidence.

Q&A: MNT GOAT Iraq Update Explained

Q: Is the torn currency problem intentional pressure?

A: Yes. It encourages digital adoption and prepares for monetary restructuring.

Q: Is December 29 important?

A: Extremely. Parliament formation, leadership appointments, and CBI targets converge on this date.

Q: Why is militia disarmament critical now?

A: It removes the final sovereignty obstacle before full economic and monetary normalization.

Q: Is the RV guaranteed on December 29?

A: No date is guaranteed — but pressure, alignment, and momentum are undeniable.

Final Analysis

This is no longer about isolated events.
The torn currency crisis, digital transition, election deadlines, US pressure, and voluntary militia disarmamentare interlocking gears.

📈 When all gears align, motion becomes inevitable.

Stay Connected with DINAR EVALUATION

🌐 Official Blog:
👉 https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/

📢 Telegram Channel:
👉 https://t.me/DINAREVALUATION

📘 Facebook:
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#MNTGOAT #IraqiDinar #RVUpdate #CBI #IraqEconomy #DigitalBanking #ZeroRemoval #Disarmament #IraqElections #GlobalReset #DINAREVALUATION

MNT GOAT 

If you have been following this RV saga all along, you know that the stashes of currency in the homes of the citizens is at a crisis level. The govt doesn’t want to do much about this concern but the CBI has mentioned it many times already. So, in today’s news we get yet another article on this topic titled “THE TORN CURRENCY: BETWEEN THE FAILURE OF PAPER CIRCULATION AND THE DELAY OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION”. I quote from the article – 

“The torn currency reveals a deeper flaw than the tearing of the paper, as it shows a cash management crisis, a delay in automation, and a weakness in replacement mechanisms, which makes the citizen the weakest link between banks that refuse, a market that punishes, and digital solutions that are not yet complete.”

“No one will take it from me,” Zainab al-Khafaji, a government employee, whispered to herself, her voice thick with despair, as she strolled through the shops of Baghdad’s upscale Mansour district. She clutched a five-thousand-dinar note that looked as if it had been through a war; it was tattered, its edges torn, and held together with a makeshift piece of tape.”

As worn-out paper currency, especially the small denominations (250, 500, 1000, 5000 dinars), has become a financial and psychological burden, a crisis. So, let’s go deeper into this issue. Why hasn’t the CBI issued newer notes to replace them? Why not spend the money and order newer notes? This is a question I have asked my CBI contact in Baghdad. Here  is what she told me:

She told me the CBI has plans to limit the paper currency at this time, implement the digital project and does not want to issue any more in circulation. There are newer, plastic notes, with more security features coming out as part of the lower denominations. She said to remember that the 100, 250 and 1000 notes are going to stay in circulation in the public. The goal is to bring the monetary mass down by 2/3. She them told me the digital project was targeted along with the roll out of removing the zeros for December 1st but delays occurred. These delays were mostly accountable because of two reasons: 1. the digital platform was not yet technically ready and 2. there was a matter of the elections and Iranian influences in the government that had to be resolved.

I then asked for a new target and my contact told me there is a target of December 29th if these two reasons for delay can be resolved. Soon after I ended my call to Iraq out popped news in this article  “OFFICIALS: AMERICA DEMANDS THAT ARMED GROUPS NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT”. This news was nothing new but the timing….just saying….More than a month has passed since the elections for the sixth session of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, and the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish leaders are still in the midst of negotiations to form the new government, without the features of this government yet appearing. Everyone was waiting for the results to be ratified by the Iraqi Federal Court, which ratified them last Sunday, December 14, 2025, after which the constitutional deadlines for forming the government would begin. Although these deadlines were not adhered to in some previous sessions and the formation took longer than specified by the constitution, American pressure is now emerging on Iraq to prevent the inclusion of the political wings of armed groups in the government.

What does America want? Given its ongoing role and influence in Iraq for over two decades, the United States expects the new Iraqi government to be free of armed groups

So, also out popped yet another article titled “ZIDANE: THE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON DECEMBER 29TH WILL DECIDE ON THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL AND CANNOT BE EXTENDED.” – “The head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, confirmed that the session of the new House of Representatives scheduled for December 29 must end with the appointment of the Speaker of the Council and his two deputies, noting that it is not constitutionally or legally possible to postpone or extend it.” If you recall the procedures for Iraq to form the next government, once the new speaker is appointed he then announces the new prime minister and so this all should happen very quickly once parliament is formed and operatable. Of course the U.S. will also have its hand in selecting the new prime minister as al-Sudani did get the majority of the citizens’ votes. The U.S. will not let some Iranian influence take a second term away from Al-Sudani.

So, I am reading all this news about the election and the Iranian militias feeling kind of low that the CBI target might get pushed even beyond December 29thwhen out pops this article titled “SAVAYA IS PLEASED WITH THE FACTIONS’ MOVEMENTS AND STIPULATES A COMPLETE AND IRREVERSIBLE DISARMAMENT.” In the title is also reiterates that “Statements alone are not enough.” We all know Iraq is good at making promises and then not carrying them out. Yeh….didn’t we read more than 6 months ago an article about disarming the militias in Iraq. So what happened to that? Why is the government still even faced with this challenge today, so close to the elections and the RV? 

Here is the shocker article for today – Upon Mark Savaya, US President Donald Trump’s envoy to Iraq, visit this week the Iraq militia groups welcomed the move to disarm and positive statements were made by some Iraqi armed groups toward disarmament, considering it an encouraging development that responds to calls from religious authorities. WOW! This is exactly what we wanted to hear. We needed Iraq to make the choice of disarmament and not to force it. 

However, Savaya stressed that statements alone are not enough, calling for a comprehensive and irreversible disarmament process implemented within a binding national framework that enshrines the state’s monopoly on the use of force.

Savaya also warned that Iraq stands at a critical crossroads between consolidating sovereignty and stability, or remaining trapped in a cycle of disintegration and uncontrolled weapons. It appears to me that Iraq has chosen the high road and will comply with the U.S. mandate for disarmament. These reported steps taken by some Iraqi armed groups toward disarmament are a welcome and encouraging development. This represents a positive response to the persistent calls and aspirations of our religious authorities and esteemed scholars and leaders.

Savaya then expressed his deepest appreciation and gratitude for their wisdom, moral leadership, and principled guidance, which continues to serve as a guiding compass for the nation. BUT…..at the same time, statements alone are not enough. Disarmament must be comprehensive, irreversible, and implemented within a clear and binding national framework. This process must also include the complete dismantling of all armed groups and ensure an orderly and legal transition of their members to civilian life.

Savaya also reminded Iraqi officials that according to the Iraqi Constitution and the rule of law, no political party, organization, or individual has the right to possess or operate armed formations outside the authority of the state. This principle applies throughout Iraq without exception. The exclusive authority to bear arms and use force must remain solely with the legitimate federal and regional institutions entrusted with organizing, commanding, and managing the armed forces to protect the Iraqi people and defend the country’s sovereignty.

https://mntgoatnewsusa.com/latest-mnt-goat-newsletter/
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BRUCE & MILITIAMAN: Iraq Dinar Projections ($3.22 – $4.25) & Key Highlights #iqd

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THE IRAQI ECONOMY IN 2025: PIVOTAL TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN AMBITION AND CHALLENGES

THE IRAQI ECONOMY IN 2025: PIVOTAL TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN AMBITION AND CHALLENGES

December 21, 2025   

In 2025, Iraq witnessed a crucial turning point in its economic trajectory, as growth factors and challenges intertwined in a complex equation that defined the features of the near future. While the country achieved tangible accomplishments in vital sectors such as oil, electricity, and infrastructure, it continued to face deep structural challenges related to near-total dependence on oil, exchange market fluctuations, and a growing financial deficit.

While the International Monetary Fund predicted economic growth of 5.3%, the highest rate in years, this growth was mainly driven by the oil sector, while the non-oil sector continued to suffer from weak growth and development.

The year also witnessed widespread controversy surrounding the 2025 budget, whose schedules were delayed, and the financial deficit expanded to alarming levels, raising questions about the state’s financial sustainability.

OFFICIAL PRICE AND PARALLEL MARKET

The Central Bank of Iraq maintained a fixed official exchange rate of 1,305 dinars per dollar for most of 2025, in a strategic move aimed at controlling the market and preventing the unpredictable fluctuations witnessed in previous years. However, the parallel market witnessed significant fluctuations, with the dollar price ranging between 1,397 and 1,424 dinars at different times of the year, reflecting a continuous gap between the official and parallel rates ranging between 7% and 9%.

(Remember that the IMF wants 2% or less difference)

Despite these challenges, the Central Bank recorded important positive indicators in 2025, as the cash reserve rose to $108 billion, a record level that provides a safety cushion for the economy, and the gold reserve rose from 130 to 172 tons, indicating the diversification of reserves and strengthening confidence in the national currency.

Regarding inflation, the inflation rate fell to 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025, a relatively low rate reflecting the success of monetary policy in controlling prices. Private sector credit also grew by 1.1%, indicating an improved financial environment and increased confidence in the banking system.

GROWTH FORECASTS ARE OPTIMISTI C

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the Iraqi economy will grow by 5.3% in 2025, compared to 1.4% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in economic activity. This growth is primarily driven by the recovery of the oil sector and increased government investment in infrastructure and services.

In a more optimistic forecast, the World Bank indicated that Iraq could achieve the highest growth rate among Arab economies, at around 6.7%, if oil prices rise to approximately $80 per barrel. However, economic experts cautioned that this scenario remains contingent on external factors beyond Iraq’s control.

NON-OIL SECTOR: SLOW GROWTH

Despite optimism about overall growth, the non-oil sector recorded modest growth of 5% in 2024, with expectations of continued growth of 4% in 2025.

This growth, while positive, still falls short of expectations and reflects the structural challenges facing productive sectors such as agriculture, industry and tourism. The IMF report indicated that non-oil growth may not exceed 1% in some estimates, reflecting the large structural dependence on oil and the urgent need to diversify sources of economic growth.

THE 2025 BUDGET: CONTROVERSY AND COMPLICATIONS

The 2025 budget witnessed widespread controversy and significant delays in approving its schedules, even though it falls within the three-year budget for the years 2023-2025, which was approved in June 2023. The Prime Minister’s advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, estimated that the size of the 2025 budget is about 200 trillion dinars (about 150 billion dollars), with a projected deficit of about 64 trillion dinars.

According to estimates, operating expenses constitute approximately 67% to 70% of total public expenditures, comprising salaries, allowances, pensions, and social welfare. This budget structure reflects the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy, where the majority of spending goes toward salaries and current services, while investments in infrastructure and development projects remain limited.

APPROVAL DELAY CRISIS

2025 witnessed a major crisis due to the failure to approve the budget schedules, which affected provincial allocations, investment projects, and the salaries of some groups. Parliamentarians accused the government of stalling, while observers indicated that the delay stemmed from disagreements over revenue distribution between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region, as well as issues related to the costs of producing and transporting the region’s oil.

Experts warned that delaying the approval of the 2025 budget would have a direct impact on the Iraqi market, investment activity and public spending, and would increase uncertainty that harms the business environment and economic confidence.

THE GROWING DEFICIT AND DEBT
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Iraq’s budget deficit will widen to 7.6% of GDP in 2024, compared to 1.3% in 2023, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

The Prime Minister revealed that Iraq’s total external debt exceeds $10 billion, while its domestic debt amounts to approximately 34 trillion dinars.

Al-Sudani confirmed that the new government will have to borrow due to the deficit, but stressed that the financial situation is stable thanks to large reserves.

He also announced that the number of employees in Iraq during 2025 was 4.5 million, and the number of retirees was 2.9 million, while social protection allocations amounted to 6 trillion dinars annually.

OIL PRODUCTION: COMMITMENTS AND AMBITIONS

Iraq’s crude oil production remained stable at around 4 million barrels per day for most of 2025, as Baghdad adhered to the OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. Iraq produced approximately 965 million barrels during the first eight months of 2025, generating revenues of around 73 trillion dinars, representing 90% of the country’s total revenue and underscoring its near-total dependence on oil.

Iraq pledged to compensate for its overproduction of 1.44 million barrels per day in 2024, exceeding its quota, with full compensation to be completed by September 2025. This commitment aligns with the OPEC+ production cuts and aims to maintain global price stability.

AMBITIOUS FUTURE PLANS ARE IN PLACE

In the longer term, the Ministry of Petroleum announced ambitious plans to increase production to more than 6 million barrels per day by 2029, as part of a strategy to maximize revenues and boost production capacity. This ambition requires massive investments in infrastructure, addressing associated gas issues, developing existing fields, and exploring new ones.

PRICING AND REVENUE CHALLENGES

The IMF estimates that oil revenues are set to decline from $99.2 billion in 2024 to $84.2 billion in 2025, affected by lower prices that have fallen from an average of $80.6 per barrel to $65.9.

INVESTMENTS: HUGE FIGURES AND PERSISTENT OBSTACLES

Arab and foreign investments in Iraq have exceeded $100 billion over the past two years, distributed among the housing, industry, energy, agriculture and infrastructure sectors.

These large figures reflect the government’s efforts to improve the investment environment and attract capital, and also reflect growing confidence in the country’s stability and economic opportunities.

The National Investment Commission indicated that Iraq ranked fourth among the best emerging markets in 2024, a positive indicator of the improved business climate and attractiveness of the investment environment.

INVESTMENT AND OPPORTUNITY FORUMS

The government, through the Prime Minister, announced a huge package of investment opportunities worth $450 billion, coinciding with the Iraq Investment Forum.

The Prime Minister’s advisor stressed that these steps are not just an announcement, but a roadmap for comprehensive transformation within “Iraq Vision 2050”.

This vision aims to double the gross domestic product, reduce unemployment to less than 10%, achieve 60% economic independence, and take advantage of the demographic dividend, as the population is expected to be under 30 years of age by about 60% by 2050.

FITCH RATING: CAUTIOUS INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE

At the international level, Iraq maintained its credit rating from Fitch Ratings at (B) with a stable outlook throughout 2025, indicating the country’s ability to meet its short- and medium-term financial obligations, despite ongoing challenges related to the structure of its economy and its dependence on oil.

According to experts, maintaining this rating is a factor that supports investor confidence and reflects an improvement in debt management and liquidity compared to previous years.

REAL CHALLENGES

Despite the large numbers, economic experts pointed out that real foreign investment is still absent from non-oil sectors, stressing that many investments classified as foreign are in fact Iraqi through companies registered abroad.

Bureaucratic, legal, and security challenges remain major obstacles to the flow of real capital. Furthermore, weak infrastructure, complex government procedures, and a lack of transparency in some areas all limit the attractiveness of the investment environment and delay the transformation of opportunities into productive projects on the ground.

Achievements of the Sudanese government: a record of service and an electoral victory

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani revealed the completion of 511 service projects, including infrastructure, roads, bridges, schools and health centers.

He also announced the resolution of the one million job gap problem and a reduction in unemployment to 2.1% during his government term, which began in October 2022.

The government implemented 43 development projects and 97 new school buildings, and provided services to areas inhabited by more than 3 million citizens. This large service record boosted the government’s popularity and paved the way for subsequent electoral victory.

BANKING SECTOR AND FINANCIAL REFORMS

The Iraqi banking sector witnessed significant reform steps in 2025, as the Central Bank worked to enhance compliance with international standards and improve financial transparency.

The government launched initiatives to develop digital banking infrastructure, encourage electronic payments, and reduce reliance on cash.

Credit to the private sector also grew by 1.1%, a positive indicator of increased confidence in the banking system.

The central bank continued its efforts to reduce the number of banks that violate international standards, and merged some small banks to enhance financial stability.

BANKING CHALLENGES

Despite the improvements, significant challenges remain, including US restrictions on some Iraqi banks, weak public confidence in the banking sector, and continued heavy reliance on cash transactions. The spread of banking culture among citizens remains limited, which limits the sector’s ability to contribute to economic development.

Environmental challenges: The water crisis and drought… the most serious crisis

The decline in water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has led to a reduction in cultivated areas and a decrease in grain production in many governorates, especially in the central and southern regions.

International reports have warned that water shortages could lead to a deficit in staple crops and a higher food import bill, putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the budget. The drought also led to the displacement of some residents from rural areas to cities, increasing the pressure on urban services.

IMPORTS AND THE TRADE BALANCE

Iraq remains heavily reliant on imports to meet its needs for consumer goods and basic commodities, with its import bill reaching high levels. Reports indicate a significant non-oil trade deficit, reflecting the weakness and uncompetitiveness of domestic production sectors.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES

The Iraqi economy has been affected by regional developments, particularly tensions in the region and the situations in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Complex relations with Iran and US pressure have also impacted Iraq’s economic freedom of movement.

US sanctions

The impact of US sanctions on some Iraqi banks continued, complicating financial transfers and foreign trade, and the cancellation of the exemption to purchase energy from Iran posed a major challenge to the electricity sector.

Regional comparison: Iraq’s position among Arab economies

According to the World Bank’s projections, Iraq leads the Arab region in expected growth rates for 2025 at 6.7% in the positive scenario. This puts Iraq in an advanced position among regional economies, surpassing countries such as Egypt (3%), Djibouti (5.2%), and Lebanon (4.7%).

COMMON CHALLENGES

Despite the superiority in expected growth rates, Iraq shares common challenges with the countries of the region, including dependence on a single source of income (oil or remittances), weak productive sectors, the need for structural reforms, and climate challenges.

The Iraqi economy faces three main scenarios for the near future:

1.Positive scenario: If oil prices remain at high levels (above $75), the government succeeds in implementing the planned reforms, and foreign investment flows in heavily, the economy could achieve sustainable growth exceeding 6% annually, with a tangible improvement in services and a decrease in unemployment.

2.Medium scenario: Continuation of the current situation with modest growth (4-5%), continued dependence on oil, slow progress in reforms, and ongoing challenges in attracting real investment.

3.The negative scenario: A sharp drop in oil prices (below $60), or worsening climate and water crises, or escalating regional tensions, could push the economy into recession and worsen the fiscal deficit.

Comprehensive summary: A pivotal year between ambition and reality

The year 2025 represents a turning point in the modern economic history of Iraq. On the one hand, the country achieved tangible accomplishments, including higher growth rates, increased foreign currency reserves, improved infrastructure, and the implementation of hundreds of service projects. On the other hand, the Sudanese government succeeded in achieving an electoral victory that reflects relative public satisfaction with government performance.

On the other hand, the structural challenges remained deep and serious. The near-total dependence on oil (90% of revenues) makes the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations. The growing fiscal deficit (7.6% of GDP) raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, the water crisis and drought threaten food security and social stability, and the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates for the dollar reflects imbalances in the currency market.

The year 2025 proved that Iraq has the potential and resources to become a regional economic power, but achieving this ambition requires genuine political will, radical reforms, good governance, and a long-term strategic vision that goes beyond immediate gains and places the interests of future generations at the heart of national priorities.

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