STATUS OF THE RV , PART 3 BY MNT GOAT

 STATUS OF THE RV , PART 3

What else did Iraq just tell us?

😊Let’s look at the article titled “GOVERNMENT ADVISOR: CONTRACTING WITH INTERNATIONAL AUDIT FIRMS IS A KEY STEP TOWARD MODERNIZING THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE.” 

Mazar Mohammed Saleh, an advisor to the Prime Minister, confirmed on Friday that contracting with international audit firms to evaluate the banking sector is a key step toward modernizing the economic structure. 

While explaining that these firms are independent and unaffected by pressures and interests, he indicated that this modernization contributes to strengthening confidence in the Iraqi financial market and reform in this sector, and encourages a shift away from the informal cash economy (parallel market).

😊Remember what Iraq told us in that the Customs and Tariff revenues alone could rival the oil revenues. But they had to manage them properly. Then what did we see in the news for this issue over the last 6 months? They are doing it now. Please go read the article titled “IRAQ’S CUSTOMS REVENUES REACHED 59 BILLION DINARS AFTER IMPLEMENTING THE ASYCUDA SYSTEM.” So here  is yet another update on the implementation of these customs and tariffs projects. This is what this article is for. We read that Finance Minister Taif Sami announced on Friday a significant increase in customs revenues following the implementation of the ASYCUDA Customs Automation System, amounting to more than 59 billion dinars.

She explained that “the Authority has currently begun implementing the second phase of the system, which will extend over two years. This phase includes its implementation in eight remaining customs centers, in addition to linking 12 electronic applications to the system, including: land transport clearance, the value system, smart selectivity, the exemptions system, and licenses and certificates. This will enable the system to be linked with all ministries.” So, here it all is in black and white again….. They are slowly getting there to rival the oil revenues.

😊In another article titled “A NEW DIGITAL GATEWAY: IRAQ LAUNCHES FIRST UNIFIED TELECOM TRANSIT ROUTE” We read about yet more communication innovation. Iraq has signed a strategic transit agreement with DIL Technology, a Kurdish-licensed firm, to enable seamless data flow across its territory. This marks the first time Iraq presents a unified telecom front to international companies. It streamlines the process of transmitting data through the country, eliminating the need for companies to negotiate separately with federal and Kurdish entities.

😊Here is yet another earlier summit taking place (not the Arab Summit). Will Trump be invited to speak at this one  on his tour of the Middle East? The article is titled “IRAQ ON TRUMP’S AGENDA DURING HIS MIDDLE EAST TOUR”.  No he is NOT going to Iraq or the middle east to announce the RV!  / US President Donald Trump is embarking on a tour of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This visit is described as crucial given the profound changes taking place in the region .The Saudi capital, Riyadh, is hosting the summit that will bring together Trump and the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries . Amidst the Gaza conflict and the changing maps of Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, Trump is visiting the region carrying a new vision for American engagement in the Middle East.

Oh…I just wanted to ask. Was Biden too busy laying out on the beach in Delaware to actually do some work for the citizens of the U.S.? He had four years and what did he accomplish besides dividing America, opening up the borders to terrorists and stirring up the pot of racism and sexism even more that where Obama left off.   

The brand new “WORLD HEART HOTEL” in Baghdad, Iraq

Are you ready to travel to Iraq? Are you ready to check into the World Heart Hotel in Baghdad? Soon U.S. tourist will be taking historic travel trips to Iraq. 

I felt it necessary for each of us to realize just how modern and advanced Iraq has come since the 2003 war. In this video Al-Sudani inspects the “World Heart Hotel” in preparation for receiving delegations participating in the Arab Summit. Then we take a short trip around to see the real Baghdad today.

https://mntgoatnewsusa.com/latest-mnt-goat-newsletter/

IQD: $10.21 – Public trade screens GO LIVE TONIGHT!! ‪@DINARREVALUATION‬ #iraqidinarinvestor #iraq

 

THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE IS STABILIZING TOWARDS ITS TARGET: ADAPTATION OR ADJUSTMENT?

THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE IS STABILIZING TOWARDS ITS TARGET: ADAPTATION OR ADJUSTMENT?

Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour

It became clear in the period from last April until this May that the dollar exchange rate in Iraq began to stabilize, declining towards the (official) target level. Therefore, a question may be raised in this context: Is this stability the result of “adaptation” or “adjustment”?

To answer this question, we examine the reality of monetary policy measures that strengthened the foreign exchange signal’s response to the downward trend, which can be described in the following paragraphs:

1.The Central Bank’s restrictive policy of controlling dollar sales to banks through transparency measures for transfers of unclear origin aimed at combating smuggling. This increased the official supply and eased pressure on the exchange rate.

2.The effectiveness of monetary policy in financing foreign trade through highly rated correspondent banks, within the framework of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve’s conditions. This is in addition to the trend toward settlement in euros, yuan, and UAE dirhams, which has facilitated remittance transactions in our trade with China, Turkey, and the UAE.

3.Added to this is the decline in demand for the dollar due to the increased level of banking compliance with international conditions on dollar transfers to prevent their smuggling to Iran, Syria, and Turkey via Iraq. As a result, suspicious transfers have decreased, and illicit demand for dollars has declined, contributing to the stability of the dollar exchange rate.

4.The effectiveness of the Central Bank’s foreign reserves management to compensate for the decline in the dollar supply in the parallel market, thus curbing the exchange rate towards the target.

5.The effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy led to a slowdown in the rise in the general price level (inflation) in Iraq, which limited the phenomenon of dollarization and raised the real value of the dinar.

6.Decline in speculation in the parallel market. Following the regulatory measures, the activity of unlicensed money changers and speculators who artificially raised prices declined.

7.The effectiveness of financing travelers in dollars through the official rate using payment cards at reduced costs and at the official exchange rate of 1320 dinars per dollar, in addition to collecting cash dollars through Iraqi airports, in the amount of 3000 dollars at the official rate for each traveler per month who carries an electronic payment card.

8.External international factors related to a general weakness in purchasing power in global markets and a decline in stocks, which caused a decline in the value of the dollar and a rise in gold, leading to a decline in demand for it globally and locally.

From the above-mentioned reasons, we find that exchange rate stability, despite its importance as a short-term objective of monetary policy, was achieved through “adjustment,” i.e., a short-term price adjustment trend resulting from short- or medium-term measures and treatments for exchange rate fluctuations. The aim was to restore temporary economic equilibrium without changing the basic structure of the economy and without deep-rooted long-term policies, which reduces the effectiveness of targeting the exchange rate at the long-term target level. Stability could have been achieved as a result of long-term structural “adjustment” by following long-term policies as follows:

1- Decrease in demand for the dollar due to the availability of agricultural or industrial GDP revenues as a substitute for imports.

2- Improvement in the balance of payments thanks to non-oil agricultural and industrial exports.

3- Structurally reforming the banking system and activating the role of monetary tools, especially the interest rate structure, in a way that restores the overall balance to its natural state without a split between what is real and what is monetary.

4. Reducing rentierism by diversifying the economy through allocating resources based on foreign trade to generate national surplus value. The result: more sustainable stability, as the economy becomes less dependent on external factors.

If the current balance remains in place, the dollar supply will still be vulnerable to depletion within a year of imports if oil exports cease due to wars and threats, for example, or if the economy is exposed to similar external shocks. Furthermore, reliance on reserve management and other stringent measures will not be sufficient to ensure long-term exchange rate stability.

In conclusion, while ensuring that the exchange rate stabilizes near its target level is a significant achievement for monetary policy, the absence of structural reforms, economic diversification, improving the business environment, combating corruption, and other factors will make any exchange rate stability vulnerable to reversal, particularly with oil price fluctuations, political crises, and external shocks. This underscores the importance of planning for long-term structural adjustment at the macroeconomic policy level.

STATUS OF THE RV , PART. 2 BY MNT GOAT

 STATUS OF THE RV , PART. 2

😊So, once again all the chatter in the news from Iraq is about the dinar and how strong it is slowly becoming.

 Everyone should take the time to look of the articles on this subject matter and they can be found in the Articles Section. Do think this topic is HOT right now and why all the talk about it now?  Do you think six (6) articles on this subject matter are in the news for a reason? Are you kidding me, of course it is important. We are about to see a monumental change in the dinar.

“MONETARY POLICY RAISES THE VALUE OF THE DINAR AND REDUCES RELIANCE ON THE PARALLEL MARKET”

“AL-NUSAIRI: OUR DINAR CONTINUES TO RECOVER UNTIL IT REACHES THE OFFICIAL PRICE.”

“MOST NOTABLY, THE TRAVELERS’ DOLLAR. AL-SUDANI’S ADVISOR REVEALS THE REASONS FOR THE EXCHANGE RATE’S DECLINE.”

“THE SECRETS OF “BLACK TRADE”… FACTION TACTICS BRING THE DOLLAR BACK TO 140,000 DINARS”

“THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE IS STABILIZING TOWARDS ITS TARGET: ADAPTATION OR ADJUSTMENT? ”

“9 REASONS FOR THE SUDDEN DROP IN THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ: AN ECONOMIST EXPLAINS”

Going Forward…

So, what do I mean by “monumental change” of the dinar? Lots of questions and so let’s dive into what is happening going forward in Iraq to satisfy your curiosity.

😊Now I want to present yet more amazing news to you from the IMF. In the article titled “COOPERATION BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND”. There are two events to point out to you today from this article:

1.Determining the most appropriate tax systems for the Iraqi social situation

Iraq and the International Monetary Fund agreed to strengthen relations with foreign correspondent banks in the field of foreign trade financing.

2.An agreement was reached to support the use of the Iraqi dinar in economic transactions to maintain the stability of the local currency.

Both of these events are going to move the dinar yet higher. The one I like the most is #2 which is basically telling us that the dinar (not the dollar) will soon be used to conduct economic transaction, meaning to be used in trade between Iraq and its trading partners. Yes, it a time to make that next step and liberate the Iraqi dinar yet even more.

https://mntgoatnewsusa.com/latest-mnt-goat-newsletter/

MAJEED: Iraq is done & Ready to roll the new rate tomorrow GOLDEN AGE IS COMING!! ‪@DINARREVALUATION‬

 

9 REASONS FOR THE SUDDEN DROP IN THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ: AN ECONOMIST EXPLAINS

9 REASONS FOR THE SUDDEN DROP IN THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ: AN ECONOMIST EXPLAINS

An economic expert revealed the reasons behind the sudden drop in the US dollar’s exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar over the past few days, noting the possibility of the US currency continuing its decline.

Over the past few days, Iraqi markets have witnessed a significant decline in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar on the parallel market, approaching 1,420 dinars per dollar, a level very close to the official rate after accounting for associated costs. According to the economic expert, “This decline reflects multiple changes in supply and demand within the local market and raises questions about the factors behind it.”

Iraqi economic expert Munar Al-Abidi pointed to nine reasons that led to the decline in the value of the US currency in Iraqi markets:

First: Declining demand versus abundant supply

The main reason for this decline is a decline in demand for dollars on the parallel market, coupled with a significant increase in the supply of hard currency within the market. “This new balance has contributed to narrowing the gap between the parallel and official rates,” according to Al-Obaidi.

Second: Investors shift towards gold

The economist pointed to a decline in confidence among some local investors in the dollar as a savings instrument, especially with growing expectations of a decline in its value against gold. This trend prompted many to cash in their dollar holdings and convert them into gold as a safe haven, increasing the supply of dollars in the market.

Third: Dollar inflow from non-oil sources

According to Al-Obaidi, the amount of dollars coming from outside Iraq has increased, “particularly from foreign investments and financial transfers from international companies operating within the country, which has boosted the dollar supply, regardless of oil sales.”

Fourth: The decline in the money supply of the dinar

The Central Bank of Iraq has reduced the dinar money supply by more than 6 trillion dinars over the past six months, from 104 trillion to approximately 98 trillion dinars. This contraction has led to a relative increase in the value of the dinar, which has put downward pressure on the dollar, according to Al-Obaidi.

Fifth: Declining imports and trade contraction

Despite a 6% increase in imports from China, exports from key countries such as India, Turkey, and the United States declined. Import data from the UAE—Iraq’s largest trading partner, which accounts for 30% of its total imports—is expected to arrive, according to Al-Obaidi. “The figures are likely to reveal a decline, reflecting an economic contraction and a decline in general demand, thus declining the need for dollars.”

Sixth: Diversify channels for obtaining dollars at the official price.

The recent period has witnessed an expansion in access to dollars at the official exchange rate, through bank transfers, cards, and direct transfers. Many merchants have adapted to these channels, reducing their reliance on the parallel market.

Seventh: The impact of regional conditions

Al-Obaidi explained that the deteriorating economic situation in Iran led to a decline in demand for goods imported from Iraq, especially since a portion of these goods were re-exported to Iran. Furthermore, the halt in trade with Syria—which also received a portion of Iraqi goods through re-export—contributed to a decline in demand for imports and, consequently, for the dollar.

Eighth: Pressure on the smuggled oil trade

Markets also witnessed a tightening of Iranian oil smuggling channels, which had been used by the Iraqi market to obtain dollars. This restriction reduced the amount of dollars required for these activities, thereby contributing to easing pressure on foreign currency.

Ninth: Decline in the trade of prohibited substances 

Illicit trade has declined as a result of the cessation of its sources, including drug and similar trade, a large portion of which used to be conducted with Syria and which placed significant pressure on the dollar price on the parallel market, as this trade was covered through the parallel market.

The economic expert emphasized that all of these factors combined have created an environment that has driven the dollar’s exchange rate down. Given these indicators, it is expected that the US currency will continue its decline, approaching 1,395 dinars per dollar in the coming period, unless there are fundamental changes in monetary policy or the regional and international situation.

EXCERPTS FROM MNT GOAT: Once the parallel market gap is gone and the dollar matches or better (1:1), the CBI official rate of 1320 , the " Officia" Rate will RV

 EXCERPTS FROM MNT GOAT

What can we expect, most likely in 2025?

Once the parallel market gap is gone and the dollar matches or better (1:1), the CBI official rate of 1320, my contact told me the “official” rate will then revalue. 

My guess is it will be around 1166ish or better. They might go straight to 1 dinar = $1 dollar even. Was 1166 not the “official” rate of the Dr Shabibi era when in 2012 he announced the Project to Delete the Zeros was targeted for the fall of that year? I think Ali Alaq has a better plan going better because he can, while in Dr Shabibi era Iraq was still under sanctions.

This is how it works:

Remember for your thought process that a rise in the rate of the dinar is less dinars to the US dollar not more. 

I know it is backwards to what some believe as we call a rise usually means more not less. So, actually it is a downward trend in the number of dinars to make up one US dollar. This strengthens the dinar.

 So, if the official rate is 1320 we want the dollars in the parallel market to reflect the same or less rate of 1320.