Shafaq News/ Oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel immediately if Israel launches a strike on Iranian oil facilities, Saudi energy expert Fahad bin Jumaa said on Sunday, pushing back against forecasts of a slower, more gradual increase.
Speaking to Al Arabiya Business, bin Jumaa, a former member of Saudi Arabia’s Shura Council Economic and Energy Committee, said that while Goldman Sachs had predicted a price spike in the coming year if Iran’s oil production was disrupted, any rise would likely be immediate. "The price increase would occur as soon as the strike happens, not over time," he said, adding that prices could reach $90 or even $100 per barrel depending on the scale of the attack and the extent of the disruption.
Goldman Sachs earlier projected a $20 per barrel increase in 2025 if Iranian output dropped by one million barrels per day due to a military strike. However, the investment bank's forecast assumed that OPEC+ would not intervene with higher production.
Bin Jumaa, however, suggested the price spike would be short-lived, with the market stabilizing within weeks as OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would likely ramp up production to offset any Iranian losses.
Rising tensions in the Middle East have already led to sharp gains in oil prices. Brent crude posted its biggest weekly increase since January 2023, up over 8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 9.1%, the highest weekly jump since March 2023.
Oil market analysts warn that a strike on Iran could fuel further volatility. "Geopolitical risks, such as a potential Israeli strike on Iranian oil infrastructure, would drive oil prices higher due to concerns about supply disruptions," said Mohammad Al-Shatti, an oil market expert, in a separate interview.
Iran, a member of the OPEC+ alliance, produces roughly 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for around 3% of global supply.
Citigroup analysts estimated that a major Israeli strike on Iranian oil fields could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market, while a more limited attack targeting refining capacity could cut 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.
💢This is a valuable resource, a history lesson which explains the "RV" (revaluation of currencies globally) and instructs new learners on understanding how large sums of funds may be acquired for Humanitarian purposes by obtaining and redeeming Zimbabwe Bond Notes. This basic History lesson will be your foundation to understand coming financial events.
RV History: the late Dr Dan Ecklund, Author
Part 1 of 4
Historical Background
The funding for the medbeds, and for thousands of humanitarian projects all over the world, originates in South America 500 years ago. And in Mexico. The Inca and Aztec silver and gold mines were taken by the Spanish Conquistadores. The precious metals were shipped across the Atlantic to Europe.
Since most of the banking for Europe was in Venice, that is where much of the silver and gold arrived.
Marco Polo and his brother were Venetian traders, who had followed the spice trade routes to China. Asia had three or four things coveted by Europe: Tea, Silk, Spices, and Porcelain were at the top of the list. Much of the Inca Silver made its way to China and the Spice Islands (Indonesia) in exchange for these three items. And much of the wealth of Europe ended up in China and SE Asia.
But, the Asians did not want anything from Europe, so the silver just stayed there. Much of it was maintained in underground vaults, in Indonesia, Philippines, and other countries.
Eventually, the English figured out how they could get some of their silver back. There was a plant in Afghanistan which was very popular. The English took that plant and had it grown by their slaves in India, and then sent to China. The Chinese did not want this plant, as they knew what it would do to their people.
But the Europeans insisted This was in about 1850, as I recall, and the plant gave its name to the conflict that resulted: The Opium Wars. The Europeans refused any regulation of their opium trade, and the Chinese population was decimated by opium addiction.
With the Chinese nation (the Ching Dynasty) crippled by addiction, Japan settled into northern China. They sponsored bandits and brigands to assist the Japanese government to take over much of China: Bandits and theives would steal from the people, the people would cry out to their leaders, but nothing happened. The Japanese invaders offered to help the people to drive out the bandits, and their help was accepted.
The bandits moved onward, and the cycle was repeated. Eventually, the Imperial Ching Dynasty government was pretty much driven out of existence, and in 1911 a Honolulu-trained physician led his movement to take over the Dynasty and establish the Nationalist Chinese Government.
The Elders
The Nationalist Government fought against the Japanese occupiers in the Sino-Japanese War of 1935. The Japanese took much of the treasure they had stolen from China, and hid it in the vaults mentioned above. They established a guardian tribe over at least some of the vaults, who continue guarding the vaults to this day. The vaults full of gold, silver and other treasure extend for miles in several countries. I have spoken to people who have been allowed to visit them. You can learn more about the Japanese vaults in the book Gold Warriors. https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/gold-warriors-peggy-seagrave/1100872379
When Japan was defeated, the royalty of several Asian nations claimed ownershop of the vaults. We call them the "Chinese Elders", though many of them were not Chinese. These Elders devoted their treasure to finance the prosperity and advancement of the world. But, how would they convert a bunch of ancient gold and silver into modern money?
In 1945, there was a world monetary conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. A plan was agreed to by the nations to use the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. All other currencies would be pegged, or based on, their relative value vs the US Dollar. The Elders agreed to let their funds be used as collateral for all of the paper money currencies...TO BE CONTINUED
Al-Sudani discusses with the British Ambassador setting a new date for his visit to the United Kingdom
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani discussed, today, Sunday, with the British Ambassador to Iraq, Stephen Hitchcock, setting a new date for the former's visit to the United Kingdom.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister stressed the need for the international community and the UN Security Council to play their essential role in maintaining security and stability, especially with what is happening in the region, from the continuation of the Zionist aggression on Gaza and Lebanon, and the persistence and exaggeration in targeting civilians in a war of genocide that requires condemnation and denunciation from the entire world, and requires respect for international laws and not violating them by any party.
During the meeting, they discussed the progress of relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them, as well as setting a new date for the Prime Minister's visit to the United Kingdom, which had previously been postponed due to developments in the region. link
Al-Sudani asked the ruling coalition to “move quickly before war”
Government official: Tehran stalls when asked to curb factions
A senior government official confirmed that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani informed the leaders of the “Coordination Framework” with comprehensive details about the “expected risks to Iraq” resulting from the escalation between Israel and Iran, while stressing that Tehran is practicing “deception” when asked to keep factions away from the ongoing war.
Concern increased among political and governmental circles that Iraq would be exposed to a strike after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone attack on the Golan base, early Friday morning.
The official spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, on condition of anonymity, about a set of measures that Al-Sudani is taking to avoid war, including “increasing the momentum of political mediation” to convince the factions not to involve Iraq in the war, and that he “informed the leaders of the Coordination Framework of everything about the risks, and called on them to move quickly.”
The official acknowledges the possibility of “the strike occurring,” even though “the information available to the Iraqi authorities indicates that the attack by the Iraqi factions was carried out from outside Iraqi territory with weapons that arrived from Iraq,” he said.
Sudanese mediations
The source revealed that the mediators chosen by Al-Sudani to pressure the factions have approval from Iran to talk about the war file and the conditions for calm with its agents in Iraq.
The source said, "The three figures had previously been asked to mediate in certain events over the past few years."
Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani had asked three Shiite figures to mediate to rein in the factions and prevent them from getting involved in the war between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel, after information was circulated within the ruling coalition that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.
Sources said at the time that Ammar al-Hakim was among these figures, along with two influential figures in the Shiite space who have not yet been revealed.
In contrast, there are reports that two Iraqi factions, likely the Al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi, and the Hezbollah Brigades led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, are refusing to respond to mediators and insisting on continuing to launch missile attacks on Israel.
The Iraqi official acknowledged the existence of “intransigence among some factions,” but the Prime Minister realizes that his country is in the “eye of the storm,” and has informed most of the leaders of the “Coordination Framework” of this.
The official reported that "Al-Sudani literally said: Iraq is unable to avoid a military strike if it occurs, and we must remove the danger from the country by not getting involved in the war."
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said during his Friday sermon that “the Islamic Republic’s allies in the region will not back down,” reinforcing fears that Iraqi factions linked to Iran will not back down from their decision to attack Israel.
Iraqi sources reported that the "Coordination Framework" coalition discussed what was said to be a "security report on dozens of targets to be struck and assassinated by Israel in Iraq."
Government efforts to prevent escalation
The official stated that "Al-Sudani, unlike some previous prime ministers, did not allow the exit of Iraqi funds to feed the conflict axes, through his high coordination with the American side and the American Treasury to monitor the exit of Iraqi funds in a strict manner, and he often demands that the Iranians enter through the official gates to obtain their financial dues owed by Iraq."
The official added, "Today, international auditing companies are working alongside the Central Bank to monitor the exit and smuggling of money, and what is happening today is that all the money gates that were open are now completely closed."
The official revealed that "the United States of America informed Iraq since the outbreak of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023 that it had put pressure on Israel to prevent it from launching strikes on Iraq, in exchange for Iraq's commitment not to engage in the war."
The official added, "Washington does not oppose the positions of the Iraqi government, which is within the green line of issuing statements against Israel and supporting the Lebanese and Palestinian peoples, as well as sending aid," but "it will not accept Iraq providing any material or military support to factional groups or others."
Regarding the possibility of the Iraqi authorities asking the Iranian side to rein in the factions affiliated with it, the official confirmed that “Tehran is practicing a kind of trickery in this direction, as its response often hints that the factions have their own decision and the understanding with them is like the government.” link