"RV UPDATE" BY KAPERONI, 4 JUNE

 Kaperoni

  ...The dinar to float at well over a dollar. Unlikely, the dinar when it floats will be whatever the current exchange rate is and could rise gradually accordingly.

  Community comment: "Today the cbi says there are no new printing of bills"  

That is correct.  The Central Bank does not randomly print currency unless it's to replace damaged or worn out notes. There is no need for a new currency unless it is warranted.  Moving to digital will eventually reduce physical notes.

 Question: ---- "They have a very largebudget ,without an increase in rate how do they meet the projects that is lined up?"

  External expenses are paid in dollars since their primary revenue is dollars. Dinar is used to pay salaries, etc. in country.

 CCommunity Comment: "Hopefully in the next 5 yrs we will see an appreciation of the currency  price, based on the last year of progress."  I agree!  Iraq has an excellent opportunity now to diversify their economy and develop  the banking system.  

 Much of the float articles that we have seen have concerns about speculators that is because they are referencing dealers speculating within the country.   That will not happen.

 All of these changes that they're talking about pertain to monetary policy. They have nothing to do with the exchange rate. Whether or not the exchange rate goes up or not is directly related to the economic success thereafter.

By the end of the year when the Central Bank of Iraq ends the currency auction, only transfers  amongst established Iraqi banks and regional or International banks will occur.  In other words, the float of the dinar and  transfer of funds will be institutional.

 What this means for us is the future of the dinar exchange rate is directly tied to the  capital flowing through the CBI, economic growth, and success of Iraq. As Iraq prospers, so will the dinar!  Though we may not see  the dinar exchange rate improve initially. This is a significant change in monetary policy for the Central Bank of Iraq. Some 20  years in the waiting.  

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-kaperoni-25-may.html

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-kaperoni-26-may.html

Iraqi Dinar | CBI Governor Ali Alaq Revealed New Exchange After Approval...

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Iraqi Central Bank reports surge in bank account growth, 4 JUNE

Iraqi Central Bank reports surge in bank account growth

Shafaq News/ The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) announced on Monday a significant increase in the growth rate of bank accounts over the past years in the country.

According to a CBI statement, the growth rate of bank accounts surged by 90% from 2018 to 2019, reaching a total of 12.5 million accounts.

The growth rate peaked in 2020, maintaining a 90% increase, with the number of bank accounts hitting 12 million. However, the rate dropped significantly in 2021 to its lowest level at 10%, totaling 1.5 million accounts.

The Central Bank highlighted a rebound in 2022, with a 30% increase, bringing the number of accounts to 4.5 million. This upward trend continued in 2023, with a 54% rise, resulting in 8 million bank accounts.

shafaq.com

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"RV UPDATE" BY MILITIAMAN, 4 JUNE

  Militia Man 

  Article: "Parliamentary Finance resumes its meetings regarding the budget in preparation for voting on the schedules"  Quote: "Parliament decided, according to the agenda, to hold its twenty-seventh regular session next Monday..."   I am not sure how long voting will take on the paragraph. But, if they are going to vote to do a budget at 1310 that would have a deficit of 64 trillion that would not be good for the people and they want to see another term in office they'll need the 3 zeros to be removed from the exchange rate. If there isn't a removal by Al-alaq they'll be in a pickle be sure.

That vote [scheduled Monday 3:00pm Baghdad time vote on the 2024 budget tables] is prior to markets opening in the United States in New York.  Will they vote?  Will they do it?  We're going to find out.

 The House of Representatives will vote next Monday on the budge schedules...We've been waiting for it... Is it important?  Is it not important?----  

 Obviously it's a focus.   Article Quote: "Mustafa ... announced the House of Representatives intends to vote on the financial budget tables for the year of 2024...It will be held at 3:00 in the afternoon on Monday." 

 I don't think anybody's going to be able to prove me wrong, you drop the three zeros, the exchange rate changes from 1 USD to 1.32 just like al-Sudani says.  Do the math it comes out to .76, apply the real effective exchange rate and that's where the show starts big time... .76 is $0.76 - it's slightly less than the dollar.  

That's value.  It's not .0007 something.  It's value.  That's what they're talking about - Bringing value to the currency.  That's what Al-Alaq is there for.

 Article quote: "If we assume the Central Bank issues a new currency this will not affect the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar." 

 This guy is not wrong...It won't in my view.  The exchange rate will affect the new small denominations though...If they change the value of the exchange rate by dropping the three zeros, therefor the new denominations will be affected by it, which will be value.   It's pretty simple.

 If you raise the value of the currency it's going to have a ripple effect...Instead of being a pebble...or a brick in the pond this might be a boulder.  There's going to be some waves.  The World Bank, IMF, US Fed, US Treasury...Bank of International Settlements, everybody's going to need to know what you're going to do and when you're going to do it and pretty close. 

 They're not going to be broadcasting it like everybody thinks, 'What's the date and what's the rate?'  That's not how it works.  But we study it close enough to where...we can see it can't be far off...

If they're going to have liquidity and they don't have it now it's going to require new small category denominations to be in circulation.  Just as al-Alaq's project to delete the zeros would require new denominations.   Did they do that in 2018 and have them in storage?  I believe they did...

They increased that gold supply by about 40 tons...Their currency reserves are around $110 billion.  They have a massive amount of wealth.  They have the ability to support their imports for about 16 months they say, which is about 5x what they need.  That's important.  They don't want to reduce those.  They'd like to keep them on hand...Iraq has a good foundation for Alaq to do what he's supposed to do and it'll only get better if he does.

If they change the value of their currency they're going to have more surpluses...The oil price is about $70 in the 2023 budget.  That hasn't changed for '24 or '25 because that's a tripartite budget.  They got a surplus.  Oil is somewhere around $80.  It's been as high as $91ish.  The expectations of oil is to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $80/$90 and they even talk about $100/barrel...Iraq is going to be sitting pretty good...They have phosphates...sulfur...natural gas...Those non-oil revenue streams...taxes and tariffs are going to come online...Iraq has a good foundation for Alaq to do what he's supposed to do.

 Iraq is moving forward.  They've got huge reserves...increased their gold, they're going to have the private sector, their stock exchange is going to be one to reckon with.  It's an emerging market and a lot of money is going to be start flowing...

If they go on the Forex system it's going to be international.  It's going to be fast and furious. 

 Could they do something within the county prior to that?  

Sure, why not, educate the citizens, do what they got to do...

 Question:  People want to know if they can drag this out until next year? 

 Militia Man: We don’t know the timing. But, I don’t think we are even close to go that long. There is way too much going on in the world and this is not only about Iraq. Remember all boats rise with the tide...I believe Iraq is ready to go with the rest of the world. Along with other countries like the Vietnamese dong. 

Are they going to change the value of their currency...? 

 I'm pretty sure they are going to need to to pay for all these [reconstruction] objects...rebar, the cement - all that stuff is expensive at 1310.  It's not so expensive if it's back at a 'previous era'....If they have the true value, their real effective exchange rate, it's going to be far cheaper...

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-militiaman-25-may.htm

Iraqi Dinar | De-Dollarization of Iraq: The Game Changer For IQD Investo...

Parliamentary finances vote on 2024 budget schedules and add 2 trillion to provincial share, 4 JUNE

Parliamentary finances vote on 2024 budget schedules and add 2 trillion to provincial share

Baghdad – Mil

A member of the House of Representatives, Burhan Al-Mamari, announced today, Monday, the vote of the Parliamentary Finance Committee on the 2024 budget schedules, noting that it added an increase of 2 trillion dinars to the share of the provinces to become 3.5 trillion.

Al-Mamouri said in a post seen by “Mil”, “The Finance Committee voted on the 2024 budget schedules and added an increase of 2 trillion dinars to the share of the provinces to become 3.5 trillion.”

He added that “this increase came after most members of the House of Representatives objected to the schedules sent by the government and in light of providing financial support to the provinces.”

Al-Mamouri continued, “the Finance Committee played its role and made distinguished efforts and achieved the basic requirement, which includes increasing the financial allocations of the governorates, although we demanded a further increase.”

“We stand by the Finance Committee’s decision and call on members of the House of Representatives to support the Finance Committee represented by all blocs and components and to expedite a session to vote on the budget schedules,” he added.

He stressed that “our governorates need to launch the allocations installed in the budget schedules to move the wheel of lagging projects and promote the service and urban reality in the public good.”

https://miliq.news/political/31057–2024-2-.html

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"RV UPDATE" BY PIMPY, 4 JUNE

 Pimpy  

 Article:  "UN Security Council extends mission in Iraq for last time"  The United Nations Security Council voted to end the Iraq mission by the end of next year, 2025.  The UN will not be babysitting Iraq anymore. That goes a long ways towards them establishing their sovereignty.

Article:  "The document..The House of Representatives votes next Monday on the budget schedules"  Finally after all this time.  There was a huge delay.

Trump did not buy Iraqi dinars.  You realize Trump has been tied to Iraqi dinar way before he was the president?

  ...You have to be careful about where you're getting your source from...

There are no articles out there that confirm this at all...There's no, and I mean none, proof out there that Donald Trump owns Iraqi dinar...----

Article: "Expert: The Iraqi economy is witnessing a remarkable growth, with the decline in the dollar exchange rate."  This is good.  We need this to happen.  Iraq needs it to happen. 

 More importantly the policies that are being implemented by Iraq are favorable amongst the IMF, World Bank and all those people who are involved with making sure Iraq stay on track, stops laundering money and financing terrorist.  The more Iraq continues to stay on track and prove to the world they are going to behave themselves for now on the doors open for Iraq to rejoin the international community...

 Article: "Economist:  The budget is not affected but dollar exchange rates.  And explain the reason"  The person is saying the budget is never affected by the dollar exchange rate because the budget is based on Iraqi dinars.

Article: Central Bank of Iraq quote "There are no current plans to print new currency." 

 What that tells me is people don't have to worry about a lop or redenomination because in order for you to have a redenomination or a lop you have to create new currencies.  It also tells me they're not creating the lower denominations which means they're going to stick with the currency they currently have.  Some people see this as the glass half full.  Some people look at it as the glass is half empty.

 I agree it's going to happen.  I don't have doubt about that.  I'm just keeping an eye on whether or not they want to delete the zeros.  I f they go to a free floating market hopefully there won't be...deleting the zeros and we'll see the exchange rate go up pretty quick before they have time to respond...

Iraq was already a member of the World Trade Organization.  They are going through the ascension process for a second time.  That's because all the rules, regulations, understandings and business practices...changed once the fall of Saddam Hussein.  Now we have to make sure all their practices, rules and regulations regarding trade line up once again with the World Trade Organization.  Iraq has been a member of the World Trade Organization since 2004.  This is their second time throughout the ascension process...

There's this misconception that the World Bank, IMF and the BIS get to tell countries what to do.  They don't...They facilitate.  They make recommendations but they don't control a country's bank..----.

Another budget is getting ready to come and go and there is no talk of the rate change.  Isn't that what they told you?  It would be in the new budget because there was no way for them to do large projects, there was no way for them to move forward without an exchange rate change...Why so secret now?  Is this one of those things they're trying to keep from the people?  

They didn't keep it from the people last time [they increased the value] and there's no mention of it this time...Keep your fingers crossed, it hasn't passed yet so maybe they'll change it between now and the time they pass it...You guys know what I think.

 Floating the currency means the value is determined by the market, so if people for whatever reason want to start investing in the Iraqi dinar and the start buying up the Iraqi dinar that means the demand for it is there, think supply and demand. 

 Since they have a liquidity issue, there's not going to have a lot of Iraqi dinar out there and if that's the case then they don't have the supply to feed the demand...But we'll be more than happy to sell our Iraqi dinar back to them if they get the exchange rate up around a quarter or more. I know I would.

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-pimpy-24-may.html