IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iraq, 17 MAY

  IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iraq

May 15, 2024

Washington, DC: On May 13, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Iraq and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal.

Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023.

 This supported the strong recovery in Iraq’s non-oil economy after a contraction in 2022, while Iraq was largely unaffected by the ongoing conflict in the region. Domestic inflation declined to 4 percent by end-2023, reflecting lower international food prices, the currency revaluation as of February 2023, and the normalization in trade finance. However, imbalances have worsened due to the large fiscal expansion and lower oil prices. 

The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts and Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge. Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

"Q & A " WITH MARKZ, 17 MAY

Mark Z on 5.16.24 

Member: Good Morning Everyone! Have a Terrific Thursday!

MZ: Are you guys ready- are you paying attention and waiting for big announcements or “extraordinary  plans” to be revealed  in Iraq on Sunday-   according to Sudani ?

Member: Not expecting so I can be pleasantly surprised….

Member….MilitiaMan also mentioned this last night.

 

MZ: MM had a good solid video last night….Hope you all listen…… He talks about “Extraordinary  Plans” to be announced –according to Al-Sudani.   On Sunday. Now this has something  to do with the budget. Finishing the 2024 budget.

MZ:  I tell you what- announcing a different rate would sure fix all of those problems including the budget

MZ: We are all praying this means something big. Lots of progress internationally  and MM also talks about the impending ascension to the WTO.

Member: it seems that sudani is under enormous pressure to pull the trigger.. but I'm sure he's making sure that there's no hiccups".

MZ: I continue to hear great things from banks as they continue to train. They say it means we are close but I don’t know what that means timewise 

Member: Close is one of those words I never want to hear again after the RV. Close does not seem to mean what we used to think it meant. 

MZ: “Russia endorses Vietnams future participation in BRICS: Russian ambassador” This is the world doing the fundamentals it takes to change their currencies. We are seeing a seismic shift from fiat back to commodities. This is a big piece of news. And Vietnam is pushing toward that end…like Iraq and it’s with or without the US. . 

Member: Putin said 80% of trade between Russia and china is traded outside the USD

Member: Hey if Vietnam wants to go now I won't stop them

Member: Since Vietnam is doing so well financially on their own, I wonder if  its  possible that vnd could go higher than 50% of iqd?

Member:  has there been a change in how they'll send notifications for redemption center appointments? 

Member: I firmly believe we will not really know until it happens. No sense worrying about something we have no control of. 

Member: Will the VND go at the same time as the IQD?

MZ: We still expect them to go at the same time. 

Member: Could we be in the banks next week?

MZ: If we get a rate on Sunday- IMO we could be in the banks next week.

Extraordinary Budget Session🚩New Rate This Sunday🤔Iraq Dinar RV Updates ...

Sudanese advisor announces full repayment of IMF loans, 17 MAY

  Sudanese advisor announces full repayment of IMF loans

5/16/2024   Baghdad

Today, Thursday, the Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, outlined the loans provided by the International Monetary Fund to Iraq since 2003, while noting that their total did not exceed 8 billion dollars, confirming that they were repaid in full.

Saleh said, in a statement followed by “Al-Iqtisad News”: “Since 2003, the International Monetary Fund has provided several loans to Iraq that were aimed at supporting macroeconomic stability and implementing financial reforms. Between the years 2003 and 2021, Iraq obtained several financing programs from the International Monetary Fund, "Including emergency loans and relatively long-term financial assistance."

He added, "In the first years after 2003, the Fund provided significant support to Iraq through various programs, including the SBA Credit Readiness Program and the Rapid Financing Instrument. For example, in 2016, the International Monetary Fund approved an SBA Credit Readiness Program worth 5.34 Billions of dollars to support economic reforms in Iraq, and Iraq received two-thirds of the above amount, and it was paid in full within five years.”

Saleh continued, “In 2021, Iraq requested an emergency loan worth $6 billion from the International Monetary Fund, and it appears that the loan was not materialized because it was not linked to one of the Fund’s programs at the time,” noting that “methods of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund have been targeted to support government reforms.” And confronting the economic crises that resulted from the decline in oil prices, which were linked to fluctuations in the balance of payments and its effects on economic activity.”

The Prime Minister’s Advisor for Financial Affairs stated, “Since 2003, the value of the loans and financial aid granted by the International Monetary Fund to Iraq has amounted to several billion dollars, and their total does not exceed 7 to 8 billion dollars, and they have been repaid in full, with a focus when granting loans on implementing programs related to “By supporting macroeconomic stability and implementing the necessary financial reforms.”  LINK

DeepWoodz:  t appears there are many loose ends being tied up neatly.   C’mon Iraq!

"RV UPDATE" BY KAPERONI, 17 MAY

  Kaperoni

  The current CBI rate of the dinar is 1310.  The market rate is teetering at 1460 which is not within the 2% IMF requirements. In fact, it's closer to 10%.

To date Iraq still has the majority of their working force dependent on the state.   Diversifying their economy, creating a private sector, private businesses, engaging with the world, exporting products are all good things that would support the growth of their currency.

It...is preposterous to think that you're going to walk into a bank and exchange Iraqi dinar for US cash. It is a fact that most Emerging Market countries are very volatile, banks by nature are very conservative.  Not happening...Market makers, ECNs or established financial institutions would make more sense to manage incremental gains.

 It is critical to understand that if the Central Bank of Iraq plans to end the auctions by the end of the year there must be a new mechanism in place or there would be no method to maintain stability of the dinar.  So for the central bank to announce that they plan to end the auctions they are in essence announcing, that they plan to float the dinar. Floating the dinar provides the new tools for the central bank to maintain stability.  Therefore, this announcement to end the auctions confirms (despite what some may say), Iraq will float their currency.

Article:  "Al-Rayes: The path of development is the first gateway to sustainable economic advancement"  If and when the Iraqi dinar begins to float supply and demand based on Iraq's economic success will take over.  Only with the success and growth of Iraq's own economy can the dinar go up in value. How fast and the pace are determined by those factors.

Article:  "The most difficult option.. Warnings of the danger of floating the Iraqi dinar without achieving an important condition” As I have mentioned numerous times, a float is coming for the Iraqi dinar. The question is.. when will they have sufficient diversification of the economy to support such an event?

 A country's currency is not some random act. An exchange rate is based on many factors including: reserves, GDP, economic growth etc. Iraq has a long ways to go and must pass laws to encourage investment. Only with the success of Iraq's economy can the dinar rise in value.

[aka Kaperoni]  

Article:  "Advisor to the Association of Banks: The Central Bank is following a consistent approach to achieving banking reform" 

 Quote:  "the management of the Central Bank of Iraq plans to gradually cancel the window for selling foreign currency during the year 2024, until it leaves it completely."  ...this is huge news... Iraq cannot end the auctions unless they have an alternative to the auctions... which means they plan to float the dinar by the end of the year...floating the dinar will give them a new mechanism to maintain the dinar, the CBI will buy and sell blocks of dinar like other central banks do to maintain their currency... 

 They will also have to use dinar to pay for goods and services which will make the dinar internationally traded...they want the banks and Iraq to establish relationships around the world with International standards and full compliance which means that means IMF Article XIV...This seems pretty clear and excellent news. We very well see that Iraqi dinar float on the global market at the end of this year or early next year...I think it's very promising...it definitely is very good news. 

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/04/analysis-of-iraq-news-by-kaperoni-11.htm

https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-kaperoni-7-may.html

FRANK26….5-16-24……STORM FRONT

"MONETARY REFORM... TOTAL SUCCESS!!!" BY FRANK26, 17 MAY

 KTFA

FRANK26:"MONETARY REFORM... TOTAL SUCCESS!!!"............F26

The Minister of Oil announces via “Baghdad Today”: Total has arrived in Iraq and we will stop burning gas urgently (video)

 

 5/15/2024

Baghdad

 Today, Wednesday (May 15, 2024), the Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdul-Ghani Al-Sawad, confirmed the ministry’s intention to implement strategic oil projects, while noting that the integrated southern Iraq project is environmental par excellence as it will end gas burning in five oil fields.

Al-Sawad said in an interview with “Baghdad Today” that “the French company Total has arrived in Iraq,” noting that “there is an expedited project for the company to urgently stop burning gas in current facilities.”

He added, "The agreement with (Total) stipulates the implementation of an accelerated project for gas investment within a period not exceeding one year," pointing out that "the Total project or the Iraq Integrated Project is an environmental project par excellence as it stops Gas burning in five oil fields with a capacity of 600 million cubic feet." and using it to generate electrical energy.” 

He continued, “There are two important projects, one of which is establishing an electrical station using solar energy with a capacity of 100 megawatts, which is considered one of the large stations in the region.”

He explained, “There is another project, which is the use of seawater, filtering it, and treating it to be used in the process of injecting oil reservoirs.”

It is noteworthy that the Iraqi Ministry of Oil signed, on July 10, 2023, a deferred agreement that includes four contracts with the French company Total, with a total value of $27 billion, to develop oil and gas projects in the country, including investment in associated gas with a capacity of 600 million standard cubic feet per day, which is within government projects to convert gas into electrical energy.

 

LINK