Kaperoni
The current CBI rate of the dinar is 1310. The market rate is teetering at 1460 which is not within the 2% IMF requirements. In fact, it's closer to 10%.
To date Iraq still has the majority of their working force dependent on the state. Diversifying their economy, creating a private sector, private businesses, engaging with the world, exporting products are all good things that would support the growth of their currency.
It...is preposterous to think that you're going to walk into a bank and exchange Iraqi dinar for US cash. It is a fact that most Emerging Market countries are very volatile, banks by nature are very conservative. Not happening...Market makers, ECNs or established financial institutions would make more sense to manage incremental gains.
It is critical to understand that if the Central Bank of Iraq plans to end the auctions by the end of the year there must be a new mechanism in place or there would be no method to maintain stability of the dinar. So for the central bank to announce that they plan to end the auctions they are in essence announcing, that they plan to float the dinar. Floating the dinar provides the new tools for the central bank to maintain stability. Therefore, this announcement to end the auctions confirms (despite what some may say), Iraq will float their currency.
Article: "Al-Rayes: The path of development is the first gateway to sustainable economic advancement" If and when the Iraqi dinar begins to float supply and demand based on Iraq's economic success will take over. Only with the success and growth of Iraq's own economy can the dinar go up in value. How fast and the pace are determined by those factors.
Article: "The most difficult option.. Warnings of the danger of floating the Iraqi dinar without achieving an important condition” As I have mentioned numerous times, a float is coming for the Iraqi dinar. The question is.. when will they have sufficient diversification of the economy to support such an event?
A country's currency is not some random act. An exchange rate is based on many factors including: reserves, GDP, economic growth etc. Iraq has a long ways to go and must pass laws to encourage investment. Only with the success of Iraq's economy can the dinar rise in value.
[aka Kaperoni]
Article: "Advisor to the Association of Banks: The Central Bank is following a consistent approach to achieving banking reform"
Quote: "the management of the Central Bank of Iraq plans to gradually cancel the window for selling foreign currency during the year 2024, until it leaves it completely." ...this is huge news... Iraq cannot end the auctions unless they have an alternative to the auctions... which means they plan to float the dinar by the end of the year...floating the dinar will give them a new mechanism to maintain the dinar, the CBI will buy and sell blocks of dinar like other central banks do to maintain their currency...
They will also have to use dinar to pay for goods and services which will make the dinar internationally traded...they want the banks and Iraq to establish relationships around the world with International standards and full compliance which means that means IMF Article XIV...This seems pretty clear and excellent news. We very well see that Iraqi dinar float on the global market at the end of this year or early next year...I think it's very promising...it definitely is very good news.
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/04/analysis-of-iraq-news-by-kaperoni-11.htm
https://dinarevaluation.blogspot.com/2024/05/rv-update-by-kaperoni-7-may.html
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