JUDY NOTES, 19 AUGUST

Headlines for Fri. 18 Aug. 2023:

• On Thurs. evening 17 Aug. the US Crypto Market crashed, while China’s giant Evergreen Real Estate took out bankruptcy – either of which could result in a global financial crash – expected by Tues. 22 Aug.
• On Mon. 21 Aug. President Trump will Tweet “My fellow citizens, a storm is brewing” that will activate GESARA/NESARA and unleash Global Martial Law. After which seven EBS text messages will be sent out alerting to tune in to TV, radio or phone.
• Tues. 22 Aug. a Global Financial crisis including a crash of the New York Stock Market could happen, while Tier 4b (Us, the Internet Group) could receive notification to set foreign currency exchange and Zim Bond redemption appointments.
• Tues. 22 Aug. Wed. 23 Aug. and Thurs. 24 Aug. was the BRICS Summit where major financial changes affecting countries across the World will be announced.
• The Global Alliance Military will instigate Global Martial Law and shut down all media, internet, phone and TV programs. Emergency services will still work, while the Internet and ATMs will not work during that time, and phones will only work if you call 911.

Global Currency Reset:

• Thurs. 17 Aug. MarkZ: “I have been assured Iraq plans to finish in the month of August and bankers are still looking at around  Sun. 20th Aug.”
• Bruce: On Thurs. 17 Aug. or Fri. 18 Aug. Bond Holders were to receive new NDAs. They had to sign and return those NDAs to Wells Fargo by Fri. night 18 Aug. They would receive emails Sat. 19 Aug. that would give them access to funds on Mon. 21 Aug. or Tues. 22 Aug.
• Fri. 18 Aug. Texas Snake: “Some very positive steps are being taken behind the scenes which all point to a very positive week upcoming. Hang in there, folks.”
• Fri. 18 Aug. Wolverine: “Wells Fargo Bank has received the cash release codes. The redemption of financial instruments has just begun. The global launch of the funds has just taken place in all parts of the world, marking the beginning of Redemption’s registered global asset redemption program. Clearance from Reno arrived at 9pm. On Sat. 19 Aug. from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. will be the calls for direct managers”
• Fri. 18 Aug. RV Highlights Mike Bara: “Latest I just heard: Mon. August 21st, Iraq links with gold or a gold backed currency and drops the dollar. Bankers see it when they wake up Tues. August 22nd, Iraq makes some kind of announcement on Wed. Aug. 23rd. Not sure it will be that dramatic, but there will be an announcement.”
• Bruce: Tier4b (Us, the Internet Group) should receive notification for appointments and begin to go in for those appointments on Tues. 22 Aug. or Wed. 23 Aug.
• The fiat US Dollar can be used in US, Canada and Mexico for the next three months.
• Tues. 22 Aug. Wed. 23 Aug. and Thurs. 24 Aug. is the BRICS Summit where major financial changes will be announced.
• Texas gold backed currency goes into effect  Fri. 1 Sept.
• Thurs. 17 Aug. Bitcoin, Ethereum Flash Crash Triggers $800 Million in Liquidations – Decrypt and had a One $ billion crash: https://decrypt.co/152872/bitcoin-ethereum-flash-crash-triggers-800-million-liquidations
• Tues. 22 Aug. Wed. 23 Aug. and Thurs. 24 Aug. is the BRICS Summit and major financial changes will be announced.
• Approximately 85% of countries around the world will be part of BRICS and have their own gold/asset-backed currency.
• by JUDY 

Economic: Controlling the exchange of the dollar is not done through forceful methods and strict measures, 18 AUGUST

 On Friday, Muhammad Al-Saadi, an expert in economic affairs, clarified that controlling the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market does not require arrests or forceful measures. Instead, it requires a technical solution that can strengthen the position of the dollar and support the dinar.

According to Al-Saadi, the government has taken the appropriate action by using legal prosecution against speculators. This is a necessary first step to resolve the disparities between the official and parallel markets for exchanging dollars.

He stated that technical and financial decisions must be made to increase the avenues for currency sales and enable citizens to make limited purchases by implementing restrictions or prerequisites.

He pointed out that citizens often suffer from exchange and high prices before merchants do. This is because merchants have started using the official platform to obtain dollars while citizens still struggle to get them. Some citizens even face difficulties buying cars in dollars. The government could help by opening a window to sell dollars to those who want to buy a car, as long as they provide an official purchase contract as proof of their intention.

Iraq News Iran Did What? MAJOR NEWS Story Comes to Light BY SANDY INGRAM

The US ambassador’s statements about the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, 18 AUGUST

 Last Thursday, Alina Romansky, the US ambassador to Baghdad, explained the purpose of her recent visit with Iraqi politicians. She stated that the United States is prepared to assist Baghdad in resolving water-related issues with upstream countries. Furthermore, she emphasized that Iraq’s implementation of a legitimate banking system will ensure the stability of the dollar’s exchange rates.

During an interview with journalist Saif Ali, Romansky mentioned the following:

I had a wonderful summer vacation in America and afterward returned to Washington to prepare for important meetings on August 7th and 8th. These meetings were beneficial for the defense ministries of the two countries. Once they were over, I returned to Baghdad and felt it was important to meet with Iraqi political leaders. I wanted to catch up on what had happened during the five weeks I was away and follow up on matters with the Prime Minister.

As a responsible assistant, we will keep track of the provincial council elections and their fairness, along with the Kurdistan Parliament elections, followed by parliamentary elections. These events are indicative of a robust democracy.

There are various factors that contribute to the fluctuation of the dollar against the dinar. These factors include the existence of an alternative financial system and the presence of smugglers and money launderers, which ultimately result in an increase in the value of the dollar.

The restoration of a legitimate banking system can lead to a stable exchange rate.

I believe there may be some confusion regarding the 14 banks. While no sanctions have been imposed on them, they are currently prohibited from conducting transactions in US dollars.

Evening News with MarkZ 08/18/2023

Investing Lessons from Rich Retirees, 18 AUGUST

(0:30) - Building A Strong Retirement Portfolio: How Much Do You Need?

(12:45) - Where Should You Invest For Long Term Investments? 

(25:40) - Episode Roundup: BAC, SHW, NVDA, BRK.B, VOO

            Podast@Zacks.com

 

Welcome to Episode #340 of the Value Investor Podcast.

Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio, shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal ran an article called “Here’s What a $5 Million Retirement Looks like in America.” In the article, it highlighted 5 couples and singletons who had substantial investment portfolios, over $1 million, and several had over $4 million portfolios. That’s impressive. They are rich.

How’d they do it?

None of those in the article were best selling novelists, movie stars, or professional athletes. That makes it seem even more obtainable for you and I. If they can do it, why not us?

Lessons from Rich Retirees

Those featured in the article seemingly had similar paths they followed to achieve this incredible wealth. This included,

1.       They started investing early

2.       They maxed out their 401ks

3.       They invested in equities, both individual stocks and index funds. You don’t have to get fancy.

Keep it Simple

The stocks listed in the article were big caps that you and I could also own. When Tracey has talked with her friend Ed, another rich retiree with a million-dollar stock portfolio, he too owned basic, large cap stocks, many of which paid dividends.

None were IPOs or a small cap stock that was largely unknown to most investors. These rich investors had kept it simple.

1.       Bank of America (BAC Quick QuoteBAC - Free Report)

Warren Buffett has owned Bank of America in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio for years. It’s up 108.3% over the last 10 years, but that’s underperforming the S&P 500 which is up 170% during that same time.

Bank of America pays an attractive dividend again, however, now yielding 3%, which gives long-term investors even more firepower for compounding.

Should value investors be considering a bank like Bank of America again?

2.       The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW Quick QuoteSHW - Free Report)

Sherwin-Williams rarely gets much attention on the business shows like CNBC or Fox Business. But Tracey’s friend Ed has owned it for decades. Over the last 10 years, shares of Sherwin-Williams are up 437.8% with the dividends reinvested. That’s an annualized return of 18.3%.

$10,000 invested in Sherwin-Williams in 2013 would be worth $53,780 in 2023.

Does Sherwin-Williams still have further upside?

3.       NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report)

NVIDIA was mentioned in the article as a holding by one of the rich retirees. If you had bought NVIDIA just 10 years ago, it would have gone up an astounding 11,786%.

But in 2022, shares sold off so it now has a 2-year return of “just” 117%. But NVIDIA is a leader in AI and revenue is expected to rise 59% this fiscal year to $43 billion from $26 billion last year. That’s impressive.

Is NVIDIA a good buy-and-hold stock for long-term investors?

4.       Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B Quick QuoteBRK.B - Free Report)

Berkshire Hathaway shares have been hitting new all-time highs in 2023. For investors looking for a way to track Buffett’s moves, including buy-and-hold, why not just buy shares of Berkshire’s B shares?

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway are up 218.9% over the last 10 years which beat the S&P 500 which was up just 170% during that same time. Over 20 years, Berkshire is up 600.9% versus the S&P 500 gaining 338.5%.

Should Berkshire Hathaway be on your short list?

5.       Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO Quick QuoteVOO - Free Report)

Many of the rich retirees said they owned “indexes.” They didn’t say which index but the most common one is the S&P 500. The Vanguard 500 Index (VOO Quick QuoteVOO - Free Report) is one of the most common choices for those who want to own the S&P 500 in an ETF because it has a low expense ratio of just 0.04%.

Tracey owns shares of VOO in her own personal portfolio. It’s up 14.1% year-to-date but hasn’t yet hit another new all-time high this year. Buffett is a big fan of owning the indexes, like the VOO.

Should the VOO be the first step in growing your own million-dollar portfolio?

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2138235/investing-lessons-from-rich-retirees?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID04-txt-2138235

POLL-Fed done hiking; slim majority of economists say no rate cut through March, 18 AUGUST

 By Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh

BENGALURU, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters, and a slight majority now expect the central bank to wait at least through end-March before cutting them.

With the world's largest economy defying nearly every negative forecast, and unemployment around a more than five-decade low, the median probability of a recession within a year fell to 40%, its first time below 50% since September 2022.

A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting, in line with market pricing. A roughly 80% majority expect no further rate rises this year.

That contrasts with minutes from policymakers' recent deliberations, showing a split on whether one more rise might be required. After raising rates by 25 basis points last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept options open for whether there would be a hike or a pause at the September meeting.

"Chair Powell says that decision will come down to upcoming data on growth and inflation, which we suspect will show enough signs of moderation to dissuade further rate hikes," noted Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"Still, a move to lower the current target range of 5.25%-5.50% is unlikely to begin until about June 2024 given the expected sluggish path of inflation back to the target."

The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of 7.0% following 11 interest rate hikes from near-zero in early 2022. But it is not expected to fall to the 2% target until at least 2025, according to the poll.

Greater confidence the economy may skirt a major downturn has led to growing expectations rates will stay higher for longer, leading to convulsions in bond markets in recent days. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note  yield is now only a few basis points off its cycle high in October.

Indeed, 23 poll respondents said rates will rise once more this year, with two saying twice more, to 5.75-6.00%.

While a majority among 95 economists who have forecasts through mid-2024 say rates will fall at least once by then, there is no majority for the timing of the first cut.

Just over half, 48 of 95, said the Fed will hold off cutting rates through end-March, with another 45, or 47%, saying its first cut will come in Q1. The other two still expect a cut in the fourth quarter of this year.

As recently as June, over a three-quarters majority of economists polled said the Fed would start by end-March.

Another 33 respondents, roughly 35%, forecast the Fed will go for its first rate cut in Q2, leaving 79 of 95, or 83% expecting at least one rate cut by mid-2024.

SHELTER COSTS TO COME DOWN

Much will depend on how quickly inflation will fall in the last stretch from 3.0% currently on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index to the Fed's 2% target.

Shelter costs - which account for around a third of the consumer price index (CPI) basket and are one of the main current drivers of inflation - will fall over the rest of the year, said nearly three-quarters of economists, 23 of 31.

That would help price pressures decline over the coming months, making the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation - the real interest rate - more restrictive if held unchanged.

Adjusting that real rate of interest would most likely be the reason for a rate reduction from the Federal Open Market Committee next year rather than a first move toward stimulus, said 21 of 32 economists in a reply to another question on what will prompt the first rate cut.

"We have long seen a high threshold for cutting because Fed officials will want to minimize the risk they could regret cutting if inflation stays too high," said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

"The cuts in our forecast are driven by this desire to normalize the funds rate from a restrictive level once inflation is closer to target, not by a recession."

Reuters poll - U.S. recession probability https://tmsnrt.rs/3YIogKc

(Reporting by Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Pranoy Krishna; Editing by Ross Finley and Sharon Singleton)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-fed-done-hiking-slim-majority-of-economists-say-no-rate-cut-through-march