Monday, February 2, 2026
A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE IN IRAQ: KHAZALI IS RELIEVED, HAKIM IS RIGHT, AND SUDANI IS PREPARING
A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE IN IRAQ: KHAZALI IS RELIEVED, HAKIM IS RIGHT, AND SUDANI IS PREPARING.
Trump forgets about Iran, and the Dawa Party responds with a verse about tyranny.
Trump’s remarks about Iraq and its prime minister were not just “blatant interference,” as many described it, but a new way of speaking to Iraq as a “great country” and not just an area attached to the Iranian file.
The longest 48 hours since the beginning of the year, from the warning conveyed by the leader of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, against the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki, to the “dispelling of all doubt” when Trump himself and his tweets descended upon the Iraqi scene and opened fire mercilessly on al-Maliki, who had been celebrating among his supporters hours earlier his imminent return to the palace.
“AL-MALIKI STRUCK AT THE IRANIAN AXIS,” BUT IT WAS TO NO AVAIL.
In the past few hours, Maliki’s team has tried to deal with the intense campaign that followed the American message. Spokespeople for the State of Law Coalition have spread out across the media to emphasize that Maliki is not subservient to Iran, but rather that he “struck the Iranian axis,” as leader Diaa al-Nasiri said, recalling Maliki’s complaint against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, but the matter was not useful.
However, the coalition leadership has not yet given any indication of surrender. On the contrary, Minister of Youth and Sports Ahmed Al-Mubarraq, a close associate of Maliki, posted a Quranic verse, saying that he would not abandon the “true leader.” The post read: “They plot, and Allah plots, and Allah is the best of plotters. Abu Israa, day after day you prove that you are the true leader in a time of false leaders. We will not abandon you, for you are the right choice. He will continue to support Maliki.”
As for the account of the Dawa Party, it sufficed with another verse that warns against relying on tyrants: “Allah is the ally of those who believe. He brings them out of darkness into light. But those who disbelieve – their allies are tyrants.”
“THE WISE MAN WAS RIGHT.”
In the past few hours, the message conveyed by Ammar al-Hakim has faced much skepticism, especially within the State of Law coalition led by Maliki. Coalition officials said that the American message warning against Maliki’s nomination was not accurate. Maliki’s team assumed that President Donald Trump had other ways of conveying his ideas to Maliki without the need for “messengers.” The tone of the State of Law was not devoid of skepticism and the belief that the supposed American message was written somewhere inside Baghdad.
ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ ENTHUSIASTICALLY BROADCASTS TRUMP’S BREAKING NEWS.
The factions and forces opposing al-Maliki’s nomination were led by the Asa’ib movement. The movement’s channel broadcast Trump’s statements in a series of breaking news bulletins on a rotating basis for a long period, while the media of the Hikma movement tried to distance itself and continue its usual programs.
Prior to that, Asaib deputies had hinted at the possibility of Maliki’s withdrawal and said that the movement had dealt responsibly with the American warning message conveyed by Hakim.
“IRAQ… A GREAT COUNTRY WITHOUT IRAN”
Trump’s brief statement was unusual in its context. It is one of the few times that Trump has spoken about Iraq as a “great country” and not as an appendage to the Iranian issue. Trump’s reasons for not nominating Maliki were not to accuse the man of being an Iranian agent, as many American officials usually do, but rather because “Maliki is a man with crazy policies and ideas that have destroyed Iraq, and therefore he is a bad choice that will make Washington stop supporting Baghdad.”
Most of the forces within the framework were with Maliki in the nomination, including armed factions and long-established parties. Then he received the “blessing” of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, while the leaders of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali, continued to send messages and delegations to Tehran to verify Khamenei’s position, which returned identical each time.
(Mnt Goat: of course Iran supports Maliki as he is an agent of Iran and we have known this since his first term. He will destroy Iraq and set them back to 2003.)
“BAGHDAD… LOOK AT DAMASCUS”
The Trump administration, and especially its envoy Thomas Barak, is very interested in normalizing the situation in Syria in the region. If this is part of what Barak is looking for in the next prime minister, then Mohammed Shia al-Sudani may be among those closest to the White House’s mood, especially since al-Sudani was one of the first to initiate rapprochement with Damascus, defying harsh media campaigns from his allies and outside of them. It seems that al-Sudani’s team understood the ideas that Barak’s recent tweet revealed after his call with the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Masoud Barzani, in which the American envoy spoke of Iraq as an area linked to Syria as well. This reveals a shift in the American approach to the situation in Iraq, from considering it merely an Iranian issue to including Iraq within a new arc of ideas that moves over Ankara, Damascus, Beirut, and even Baghdad.
THE SUDANESE TEAM IS OPTIMISTIC
In rapid contacts made by the 964 network during the past hour, the Sudanese team appears optimistic but cautious: “We have done what we had to do. The Sudanese concession was serious and it was not a maneuver as some forces tried to suggest in order to drive a wedge between the Sudanese and Maliki. Now we may be waiting for Maliki to reciprocate the favor and for the rest of the framework forces to understand the reality of the situation and the challenge.”
The framework groups are now discussing the start of preparations for an urgent meeting. Some are considering holding it at the home of Ammar al-Hakim, the man who was right and whose account has been subject to much skepticism, while others are calling for the meeting to be held at al-Maliki’s home “to appease him.”
JEFF: The “Kuwait Syndrome”: Why Iraq’s RV Can’t Be Telegraphed Before It Happens
Featured Snippet
The “Kuwait Syndrome” explains why Iraq cannot openly signal a currency revaluation before it happens. Final OFAC sanctions must be reviewed quietly, while public instability masks preparations for Iraq’s return to international markets.
Introduction: The RV Was Never Going to Be Announced Ahead of Time
One of the biggest misconceptions in the RV community is the belief that governments will telegraph a currency revaluation before it happens.
According to Jeff, that idea ignores historical precedent — especially what happened with Kuwait.
This is what he calls “The Kuwait Syndrome.”
What Is the “Kuwait Syndrome”?
The Kuwait Syndrome refers to a strategic pattern used when a country is preparing for a major currency value change:
No advance warning
No positive media signals
No public confirmation of readiness
Why?
Because you cannot lift final sanctions or raise a currency value while signaling it publicly.
Jeff was very clear:
“Hell no they’re not going to tell you they’re pulling the final OFAC sanctions.”
OFAC & U.S. Treasury: The Final Gatekeepers
The last remaining sanctions on Iraq fall under:
OFAC
U.S. Treasury
These are the final barriers preventing Iraq from:
Increasing its currency value
Going fully international
What’s Really Happening Right Now?
Behind the scenes:
Iraq is under active review
Authorities are determining if Iraq is worthy of lifting final sanctions
This review is a prerequisite to any rate increase
Publicly:
Media highlights instability
News emphasizes political uncertainty
Security concerns are amplified
This contrast is intentional.
Why the News Looks Negative on Purpose
Jeff explained a critical point many overlook:
“They can’t give you clues the rate is about to go up in value.”
If Iraq were portrayed as:
Stable
Secure
Fully functional
…it would signal currency movement, which is exactly what they must avoid.
Instability in the news = cover, not failure.
Following Actions, Not Headlines
Jeff emphasized that the RV is not understood by headlines, but by actions:
Quiet sanction reviews
Continued international coordination
Central bank readiness
Government formation pressure
When you follow what they do, not what they say, the picture becomes clearer.
Government Formation: Past the Constitutional Deadline
Iraq has now exceeded its constitutional timeline.
Key Facts:
Government formation includes 4 steps
The Presidency vote is Step 2
The constitutional deadline was 30 days
That deadline expired Wednesday the 28th
This puts Iraq officially past its constitutional window — a position that increases external pressure.
Sudani vs. Maliki: Why the Outcome Was Never Random
Jeff has consistently stated:
“Maliki is not going to get this. It will be Sudani.”
Although Maliki was initially portrayed as the top pick, external forces intervened.
The Trump Factor: A Strategic Roadblock
According to Jeff, Donald Trump stepped in directly:
“You put Maliki in and we’re done helping you 100%.”
That message:
Placed a roadblock in front of Iraq
Froze momentum
Threw the process into limbo
This wasn’t political theater — it was leverage.
Why This Matters for the RV
Maliki is widely viewed as:
Anti-reform
Resistant to currency change
A threat to international confidence
Sudani, on the other hand:
Aligns with reform
Keeps international support intact
Maintains the path toward sanction removal
The RV cannot proceed without trust.
Q&A Section (SEO Optimized)
What is the Kuwait Syndrome?
It’s a strategy where governments hide positive currency developments behind negative media to prevent speculation before a revaluation.
Are OFAC sanctions the last ones on Iraq?
Yes. They are the final major sanctions preventing Iraq from increasing its currency value and going international.
Is Iraq past its constitutional deadline?
Yes. The 30-day period to complete the presidential step expired on Wednesday the 28th.
Why won’t Maliki become Prime Minister?
According to Jeff, international pressure—especially from the U.S.—has blocked Maliki due to his anti-reform reputation.
Does political instability mean the RV is dead?
No. Public instability often masks private financial readiness.
Final Thoughts: Silence Doesn’t Mean Failure
The absence of confirmation is not a sign of defeat.
It’s a sign of:
Strategic timing
International coordination
Final-stage preparation
The Kuwait Syndrome only makes sense once you understand it.
Important Disclaimer
All content discussed reflects opinion only and is for general and educational purposes.
Nothing shared should be considered financial, legal, or professional advice.
Always consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
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Jeff
Let's get into the 'Kuwait Syndrome' aspect of this. Can they tell you before the rate changes that they're going to flat out pull the OACT sanctions...? Those are the last, final, remaining sanctions on Iraq...Hell no they're not going to do that...Here's what they're doing.
They're reviewing Iraq right now to make sure they're worthy of lifting the last final remaining OFAC/UNTreasury sanctions so they can increase the currency value and go international. But what they're portraying in the news is instability and insecurity. They can't give you clues the rate is about to go up in value. This is the Kuwait Syndrome...When you follow the facts through the means of their actions you can gauge this so much better and accurately...
They're past their constitutional period right now, the 30-day mark, of voting on and completing the step of the president, which is step two out of four within their government formation. Their constitutional period reached its deadline as of Wednesday the 28th.
They're now past that...When the formation of the government started, I told you Maliki is not going to get this. It will be Sudani...They stated [Maliki] is the top pick but Trump's got some big cojones and came forward saying, 'Hey, Iraq, you put Maliki in and we're done helping you 100%.' ...Trump put a roadblock right in front of them...and it's in limbo.
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