Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Predictions regarding Savaya's plan: Closing all banks except for four... and targeting rebel factions
Predictions regarding Savaya's plan: Closing all banks except for four... and targeting rebel factions.
With increasing reports of the arrival, or imminent arrival, of Mark Savaya, US President Donald Trump's envoy to Baghdad, a key question arises in political circles: Will he be an adversary or a partner to the ruling group in Iraq?
The answer, according to initial indications, appears complex. Since assuming his post about three months ago, the US envoy has declared a hardline stance against groups cooperating with Tehran and armed factions. However, information circulating in Baghdad suggests the formation of a new relationship between Savaya and the "coordination framework" in its "disarmed" version, which anticipates his arrival as a potential partner in the coming phase.
During the height of the unusual US escalation against Iran, contacts described as "strange and rare" were recorded, involving Iraqi groups that had declared their disarmament attempting to mediate with Tehran for the release of Western detainees. Political sources say that this new relationship will have "scapegoats," namely the few remaining factions that refuse to disarm and relinquish their military and economic capabilities.
According to reports, the US envoy is expected to implement a package of decisions, exclusively published by Al-Mada newspaper last year, concerning the closure of most Iraqi banks, leaving only a limited number—no more than four to six—operating. This is part of a strict US campaign to combat money laundering and cut off Iranian funding sources.
Sources indicate that Savaya's rapid activity, since assuming his duties as special envoy to Iraq last November, stems from the presence of an "Iraqi team ready to cooperate." These sources, who requested anonymity, do not rule out that this activity is linked to the formation of the next government, pointing to signals from Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition and the leading candidate so far for prime minister, regarding openness to cooperation with Washington.
Four days ago, during his meeting with the US Chargé d'Affaires in Baghdad, Joshua Harris, Maliki emphasized the necessity of "monopolizing weapons in the hands of the state" and expressed Iraq's desire to "expand the partnership with the United States by activating the Strategic Framework Agreement," according to an official statement issued by his office.
Sources indicate that the "Coordination Framework" is prepared for full cooperation with Savaya on the issue of armed factions, leaving the choice of how to deal with groups refusing to disarm—whether through military force or economic activities—to the United States.While Washington escalated its threats against Tehran, brandishing "very strong" military options before later backing down, the Iraqi resistance factions in Baghdad were preoccupied with other types of conflicts, related to the distribution of positions in the upcoming government and shaping the post-disarmament phase.
For the first time in five years of US-Iranian tension, these groups do not appear poised for large-scale intervention in any potential US strike against Iran, except for limited actions. However, Kataib Hezbollah emerged alone with an escalatory tone, threatening to retaliate against any attack on Iran and describing war as "no picnic." This was followed by another, less well-known group called Saraya Awliya al-Dam (Brigades of the Guardians of Blood).
Four armed groups had previously announced their decision to disarm in exchange for being allowed political participation. All eyes are now on Savaya.
Meanwhile, Savaya shuttled between the US Treasury and Defense Departments, coinciding with intensive diplomatic activity by the US chargé d'affaires in Baghdad, who met with most Iraqi leaders, including Maliki. Official statements from Washington and Baghdad indicate that the two main issues on the table are preventing the participation of armed factions in the next government and cutting off their funding sources and Iran's access to hard currency.
These statements reinforce what Iraqi sources suggest: that Savaya's mission will focus on implementing decisions related to the closure of at least 96 banks. Currently, 37 Iraqi banks are under US sanctions, with expectations that the number will rise to 69, amidst leaks about a US request to seal the banks shut, leaving only a limited number—between four and six—operating.
In this context, Savaya held a meeting on Friday at the White House with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Director of Counterterrorism Sebastian Gorka to discuss the details of his upcoming visit to Iraq. In a statement, he said, “The issues discussed will be raised during the upcoming visit, in communication with decision-makers, in a way that serves the interests of the Iraqi people.”
Last Wednesday, US President Donald Trump praised his special envoy’s performance, saying he “did a fantastic job in Iraq.” Meanwhile, rumors continue to circulate in Baghdad that Savaya received five million dollars from Iraqi entities before assuming his duties, amid allegations of “buying American favor,” though these claims remain unconfirmed.
Independent politician and former MP Mithal al-Alusi expressed his pessimism regarding the US envoy’s mission, stating that Savaya and his team “are dealing with a failed state and politicians accused of corruption and crimes.”
Speaking to Al-Mada, al-Alusi warned that the US demands for “a government without militias” and economic sanctions, while essentially Iraqi demands, could be used at the expense of the integrity of the political process. He pointed to recent worrying attempts, including US contacts with Iraqi factions to help secure the release of Westerners detained in Iran during the height of the escalation. He concludes by saying that ignoring the reform of the political process and the protection of freedoms means accepting a more chaotic Iraq, with the Americans content to manage the scene through the embassy, which portends further disintegration of the Iraqi state. link
JEFF: Iraq Sanctions Breakdown, OFAC Status & Government Formation Acceleration
Introduction: Why Sanctions Matter More Than Headlines
Recent commentary from Jeff delivers one of the clearest breakdowns to date of where Iraq truly stands on sanctions, what has already been removed, and what still prevents Iraq from fully going international.
While many believe sanctions are “mostly gone,” Jeff clarifies that one final barrier remains—and it is the most important one.
Which Sanctions Are Gone — And Which Remain?
Jeff addressed this question directly:
Sanctions That Are Already Gone
✅ UN Chapter VII sanctions – REMOVED
✅ Oil export controls – REMOVED
✅ Pathway to WTO – OPEN
✅ IMF and World Bank access – ACTIVE
These are major milestones that confirm Iraq is no longer treated as a restricted or isolated nation under international law.
The Last Remaining Sanctions: OFAC
According to Jeff:
👉 The only remaining sanctions on Iraq are within OFAC (U.S. Treasury)
Why OFAC Is Critical
OFAC restrictions control:
International dollar transactions
Cross-border banking activity
Global financial integration
Without OFAC clearance, Iraq cannot fully operate on the international stage , regardless of other progress.
Why a Rate Change Is Still Required
Jeff made a key point:
“To go any further forward after the government is formed, they have to change the rate.”
In other words:
Government formation alone is not enough
A rate adjustment is required for Iraq to move fully international
OFAC, audits, and rate change are interconnected
Why Iraq Is Being Audited Right Now
As Iraq approaches the second half of government formation, Jeff revealed a critical development:
Savaya’s Envoy and Financial Audits
Savaya’s representative is going in to open the books
Purpose: financial review and audit
Timing: before sanctions are lifted
Why This Matters
“Part of the reason they’re auditing them is because they’re getting ready to lift the sanctions so they can go international.”
Audits are a final compliance step, ensuring:
Transparency
Financial integrity
Readiness for global banking standards
This is standard procedure before OFAC sanctions are lifted.
Political Acceleration: This Can Move Very Fast
Jeff emphasized that the next critical milestone is parliamentary action:
What We’re Watching For
A formal parliament session
Vote on the President
Announcement date still pending, but very close
Once this happens:
“When they get to the point of a prime minister, this can go very fast.”
Same-Day Announcements Possible
Jeff believes:
President and Prime Minister could be announced the same day
Political timelines can compress rapidly once consensus is reached
This supports earlier commentary from other analysts that Iraq does not always use the full constitutional timeline.
Featured Snippets (Google Discover Optimized)
What sanctions still remain on Iraq?
The only remaining sanctions on Iraq are OFAC restrictions under the U.S. Treasury.
Why is Iraq being audited now?
Audits are being conducted to prepare for lifting OFAC sanctions and allowing Iraq to operate internationally.
Does Iraq need a new exchange rate to move forward?
According to Jeff, a rate change is required after government formation for Iraq to fully go international.
Can Iraq announce a president and prime minister the same day?
Yes. Jeff states this is possible once parliament reaches that stage.
Q&A Section
Q: Is Iraq still under UN sanctions?
A: No. UN Chapter VII sanctions have been removed.
Q: Can Iraq trade oil freely?
A: Yes. Oil export controls are no longer in place.
Q: Why does OFAC matter more than other sanctions?
A: OFAC controls international banking and dollar-based transactions.
Q: Does an audit mean sanctions are about to be lifted?
A: Audits are typically conducted immediately before sanctions removal.
Q: Is this confirmed by official sources?
A: No. These are interpretations and opinions shared by Jeff.
Important Disclaimers
Jeff Commentary Disclaimer
All statements reflect opinion and analysis, not official confirmation.
General Disclaimer
THIS CONTENT IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A QUALIFIED PROFESSIONAL.
Final Analysis
With:
Nearly all sanctions removed
OFAC as the final barrier
Audits underway
Political leadership close to confirmation
Iraq appears to be checking final compliance boxes, not starting from scratch.
The structure is already in place. What remains is execution and timing.
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#IraqiDinar #OFAC #IraqSanctions #JeffRV #RVUpdate #IraqPolitics #CurrencyReform #MonetaryPolicy #DinarRevaluation #GlobalBanking #WTO #IMF
Jeff
What are the remaining sanctions?
UN Chapter VII sanctions, gone. Oil export controls, gone. IMF, World Bank access still active. WTO pathway is open...The last remaining sanctions on Iraq are within OFAC.
To go any further forward after the government is formed they have to change the rate. With that said...as the government nears the second half of the formation, Savaya's envoy is going there to open the books to give them a financial review/audit.
Part of the reason they're auditing them is because they're getting ready to lift the sanctions so they can go international. It's about allowing them to go international. The last remaining sanctions is OFAC.
The news is phenomenal. Looks amazing. The next critical thing we're looking for is when they're going to have and hold a session of parliament to tackle and vote on the president. They haven't given us that date yet but they're in close proximity to doing that...When they get to the point of a prime minister, this can go very fast...They could announce the prime minister the same day they announce the president.
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