Sandy Ingram
In time we can look forward to a 1 to 1 ratio but not in the beginning...and not until the three major tasks that Iraq has to complete.
They have to control their currency, they have to be able to have an info of revenue coming in over and above the oil industry and they have to control the militants...Iraq must take care of these tasks before a currency adjustment can happen.
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In the long term, it is possible to envision a 1:1 exchange rate scenario, but this would not occur in the early stages of Iraq’s monetary reform. Any meaningful currency adjustment depends on Iraq successfully completing three key national priorities. 🇮🇶💰
First, Iraq must achieve full control over its currency and monetary system 🏦. This includes eliminating multiple exchange rates, reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar in local transactions, and strengthening the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) so it fully controls money supply, reserves, and foreign exchange flows. Without this, any revaluation would lack stability.
Second, Iraq needs stronger revenue diversification beyond oil 🛢️➡️📊. While oil remains the main income source, long-term currency strength requires growing non-oil revenues such as customs, taxation, trade regulation, and digital financial systems. This creates fiscal balance and reduces exposure to oil price volatility.
Third, Iraq must improve state control over militias and illegal financial networks 🛑⚖️. As long as armed groups can exploit oil smuggling, dollar leakage, or parallel markets, the financial system remains weakened. Stronger rule of law and border control are essential for economic credibility and investor confidence.
Only when these three pillars—monetary control, diversified revenues, and internal security stability—are fully achieved can Iraq realistically move toward a stronger currency framework or long-term valuation improvement. 📈
In other words, a potential 1:1 exchange rate would not be an early-stage event, but the result of deep structural reform and long-term economic stabilization. ⏳
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