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Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, directed that “the findings of the investigation be made public as quickly as possible, exposing all circumstances surrounding the attack and the entities behind it.”
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๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฅ ERBIL UNDER ATTACK: WILL BAGHDAD STAND FIRM?
๐ข NEWS SUMMARY
Two drones targeted the office of Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the residence of the region’s security chief in Erbil. Kurdish authorities said the drones originated from Iranian territory. No casualties were reported. (The New Region)
๐ฎ๐ถ Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi ordered an investigation to identify the launch points, determine the circumstances, and reveal those responsible, directing that the findings be made public as quickly as possible. (Shafaq News)
๐ฅ BUT HERE IS WHERE THE STORY GETS MUCH MORE INTERESTING...
Why Erbil?
Why not Baghdad?
One possible strategic objective could be to create tension between Erbil and Baghdad.
The potential scenario would look like this:
ATTACK ERBIL ๐ฎ๐ถ
⬇️
ERBIL DEMANDS ACTION FROM BAGHDAD
⬇️
BAGHDAD RESPONDS TOO SLOWLY
⬇️
KURDISH FRUSTRATION GROWS
⬇️
TRUST BETWEEN ERBIL & BAGHDAD WEAKENS
And that could benefit any actor that does not want to see a stronger, more unified Iraqi state.
๐ฎ๐ถ BUT LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW
Baghdad and Erbil are actually moving in the opposite direction.
๐ค Greater security coordination
๐ง Joint border-security efforts
๐ป ASYCUDA implementation
๐ฐ Unified customs procedures
๐ข️ Cooperation on oil and revenues
๐ Joint efforts against smuggling and unofficial crossings
Just days before the attack, Iraqi and Kurdish officials were strengthening coordination on border security and combating smuggling. (ุงูุดุฑู ุงูุฃูุณุท)
And the ASYCUDA agreement represents a major step toward unified customs procedures and greater federal oversight of revenues. (964media)
๐ฅ THAT CHANGES THE CONTEXT.
If someone wanted to weaken Baghdad–Erbil cooperation, creating insecurity in Erbil could be an effective way to put pressure on that relationship.
๐ฏ THE REAL QUESTION: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
If Erbil begins thinking:
“Baghdad says we are part of Iraq, but can Baghdad actually protect us?”
then political tensions could grow.
That is why Al-Zaidi’s response matters so much.
By ordering the investigation and demanding that the findings be made public, Baghdad is potentially sending a very important message:
๐ฎ๐ถ “An attack on Erbil is an attack on Iraqi territory—and the Iraqi state will determine who is responsible.”
That is very different from treating this as merely a Kurdish regional problem.
๐ฎ๐ท AND WHAT ABOUT IRAN?
The KRG says the drones originated from Iranian territory. That is significant, but we must distinguish between where the drones came from and who ultimately ordered the attack.
It would therefore be premature to say:
❌ “Iran ordered this attack specifically to divide Baghdad and Erbil.”
But we can analyze the potential strategic effect:
If an outside actor wants to prevent deeper Baghdad–Erbil integration, destabilizing Erbil could create exactly the kind of political friction that would undermine that cooperation.
๐ฅ AND HERE IS THE IRONY...
The attack could potentially produce the opposite effect.
If Al-Zaidi responds firmly:
ATTACK ON ERBIL
๐ฎ๐ถ
⬇️
BAGHDAD RESPONDS
⬇️
GREATER SECURITY COORDINATION
⬇️
STRONGER FEDERAL BORDER CONTROL
⬇️
LESS ROOM FOR MILITIAS & EXTERNAL ACTORS
⬇️
STRONGER BAGHDAD–ERBIL INTEGRATION ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฅ
And that connects directly to the ASYCUDA story.
๐ก MY TAKE
The most important question is not only who launched the drones.
The bigger question is:
๐ฎ๐ถ HOW WILL THE IRAQI STATE RESPOND?
If Baghdad successfully identifies those responsible, protects Erbil, strengthens border control, and continues integrating security and economic systems with the Kurdistan Region, this attack could ultimately strengthen Iraqi sovereignty rather than weaken it.
And that would be a very different outcome from what a destabilizing actor might have intended.
๐ Watch Baghdad’s response.
Because right now, the real battle may be bigger than Erbil.
It may be about who controls Iraq’s borders, security, money—and ultimately, Iraq’s sovereignty. ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฅ
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