REPOSITIONING OF FACTIONS IN IRAQ… HANDING OVER WEAPONS IS THE GATEWAY TO PARTICIPATION IN AL-ZAYDI’S GOVERNMENT
Iraq is witnessing a significant political and security development: several armed factions have announced their intention to hand over their weapons to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the near future. This move is interpreted as a political repositioning in preparation for participation in the anticipated Iraqi government headed by Ali al-Zaidi .
Informed Iraqi sources confirmed to Al-Nahar that “the factions’ move, spearheaded by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq led by Qais al-Khazali, Kata’ib al-Imam Ali led by Shibl al-Zaidi, and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya led by Haider al-Gharazi, comes within the framework of their efforts to solidify their presence in the political arena and prepare themselves for joining the new government.”
The sources added that “this move coincides with escalating international pressure, led by the United States , which has intensified its messages to Iraqi political leaders in recent weeks, warning against the inclusion of any armed faction in the upcoming government.”
It indicates that “ Washington informed the Iraqi leadership, as well as the prime minister-designate, that the participation of any armed faction in the government would negatively affect bilateral relations, with the possibility of taking political, economic and security measures, especially in the areas of financial and security cooperation.”
Observers believe that the announcement by some factions of their readiness to hand over their weapons to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) may be interpreted in Washington as a superficial step aimed at repositioning, not dismantling the military structure. These reorganizations may also be used as a means to absorb international pressure without fundamentally altering the nature of armed influence.
Strategic affairs expert Abbas al-Jubouri told Al-Nahar, “Handing over weapons to the PMF may not be seen internationally as a genuine step towards ending the presence of weapons outside the state’s control, but rather as a measure within the context of political and organizational repositioning.”
He added, “The American assessment depends on the extent of actual change in the factions’ military decision-making structure, not on political pronouncements. Any step that is not accompanied by a genuine dismantling of the armed structure and full integration into official institutions will be considered an attempt to absorb pressure.”
Testing the seriousness of integration and weapons control
Al-Jubouri warns that “reorganizing Iraqi factions under an official umbrella without changing the nature of the leadership or the sources of decision-making could entrench the duality of armed groups within the state, raising international concerns about security stability in Iraq.”
He points out that “continuing this approach could expose the next government to increasing political and economic pressures and could negatively impact the level of security cooperation and international support, thus necessitating the adoption of a clear path that ensures the state effectively monopolizes weapons.”
Conversely, analysts believe that the success of this path in modifying the international stance remains contingent on the transparency of its implementation and the extent of genuine integration within the security apparatus, free from the duality of decision-making and armed groups. Experts also emphasize that any real transformation requires broad internal consensus and direct dialogue with international parties, given the complexities of the Iraqi landscape and the intertwining of security and political issues.
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