A government advisor affirms the Iraqi economy's ability to overcome the short-term crisis.
The economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed that the Iraqi economy currently possesses a degree of flexibility in facing the repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, noting that the strength of the country's foreign reserves constitutes the main shield to contain pressures on the exchange rate and maintain monetary stability in the short term, while the Central Bank has sufficient margin to maneuver in containing fluctuations and warding off immediate disturbances.
Saleh explained to Al-Furat News Agency that "the Strait of Hormuz, located in the southern Gulf, is a vital waterway for approximately 11% of global trade and 20% of the world's crude oil and gas exports.
He noted that more than 94% of Iraqi oil exports pass through ports in southern Iraq and then through this strait, making its closure a severe challenge for the Iraqi economy, which is almost entirely dependent on this waterway."
Saleh revealed that "closing the strait would mean a drop in oil exports from over 3.4 million barrels per day to less than a quarter of a million barrels, with daily losses ranging between $200 million and $255 million due to the disruption of the normal flow of oil.
He added that even with global oil prices rising to record levels, potentially reaching $150 per barrel, monthly revenues would plummet from around $7 billion to just over $1 billion, an amount insufficient to cover only 25% to 30% of monthly operating expenses."
Saleh pointed to the "scarcity of alternatives available for exporting Iraqi oil in the event of the Strait's closure," explaining that the only available alternative is the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with a capacity ranging between 200,000 and 210,000 barrels per day, which can be increased, in addition to a small quantity not exceeding 10,000 barrels that can be exported overland to Jordan.
He emphasized that these combined quantities represent only a small fraction of normal exports.
Saleh warned that "the relationship between oil revenues and the stability of the Iraqi dinar is a direct and direct one," noting that the main source of dollars in Iraq is oil revenues deposited in the US Federal Reserve.
He added that any disruption or decrease in these revenues means a decline in the flow of dollars to finance the national economy, thus increasing demand for them as a safe haven in the current climate of uncertainty. He stressed that if the crisis persists, foreign reserves will be depleted in defense of overall stability, which could lead to resorting to austerity measures contingent on the duration of the war in the Gulf.
The economic advisor addressed "other repercussions extending to aspects of the macroeconomy, most notably imported inflation, as Iraq imports most of its food, medicine, and basic commodities. He pointed out that shipping and insurance costs have jumped by up to 50%, which will directly impact commodity prices over time.
He also warned of the technical damage resulting from the closure of oil fields, explaining that a sudden and prolonged shutdown could cause permanent damage to oil reservoirs, requiring time and significant investment to restore previous production levels even after the strait is reopened."
Saleh concluded that "the fundamental solution lies in expediting the diversification of oil export outlets and reactivating the dormant pipelines.
He warned that without these alternatives, the national economy will remain hostage to recurring regional crises, and stressed that the economy's ability to overcome the crisis in the short term will remain primarily dependent on the size of the available foreign currency reserves." link
