IQD Revaluation Analysis: Central Bank Autonomy, Government Formation & Timing
One of the most misunderstood aspects of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) revaluation is who controls the timing and what conditions are truly required. Recent commentary highlights a critical truth often overlooked:
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is completely autonomous.
This single fact reshapes how the revaluation timeline should be viewed.
🏛️ The Central Bank of Iraq: Fully Autonomous Authority
The CBI does not need permission from:
Parliament
The Prime Minister
A fully formed government
The Central Bank can change the exchange rate whenever it deems appropriate.
The real question is not if they can —
The question is whether they believe sufficient stability has been achieved.
🔍 Government Formation: Is It a “Completed Level”?
What remains unknown — and unverifiable — is how the CBI internally defines stability.
Key considerations:
Does partial government formation qualify?
Is full political completion required?
Or is financial infrastructure more important?
There is no public confirmation of the criteria used.
We cannot verify their internal benchmarks.
We cannot confirm their thresholds.
We can only analyze logic and precedent.
⏳ Why a Rate Change Could Come Before Government Completion
Logically, it makes more sense for the CBI to adjust the rate before full government formation is completed.
Why?
Because major tasks still follow a rate change, including:
Approval of 150+ laws
Passage of the 2026 federal budget
Financial recalibrations tied to valuation
Waiting until everything is finished would delay processes that depend on a new rate.
📜 The 2026 Budget: A Key Indicator
One of the most important post-rate-change requirements is the 2026 budget.
Budgets:
Are calculated using currency value
Reflect national income expectations
Must align with international accounting standards
This strongly suggests that a rate change could logically precede budget approval, not follow it.
🇺🇸 The U.S., Iraq, and the “Payment” Question
A crucial historical reminder:
In January 2020, former President Donald Trump stated that the United States would not exit Iraq until it was paid.
This raises an important clarification.
💰 What Does “Paid” Actually Mean?
The U.S. (and others) hold large amounts of Iraqi dinar.
However:
Holding dinar without value is not payment
Payment occurs only when value is applied
That happens when the currency is revalued and reinstated
They are not paid until the dinar has value.
Only after reinstatement does settlement truly occur.
🧠 Featured Snippet for Google Discover
The Central Bank of Iraq is autonomous and can change the IQD rate at any time. Government formation may not be a required condition, as major legal and budgetary steps logically follow a rate change, not precede it.
❓ Q&A: Key Questions Answered
Q: Can the Central Bank change the rate without a full government?
Yes. The CBI is autonomous and does not require political completion.
Q: Do we know their internal stability requirements?
No. There is no public or verifiable confirmation.
Q: Why would they revalue before government formation is complete?
Because many laws and budgets depend on the new rate.
Q: Is the 2026 budget important?
Yes. Budgets require a known currency value to be accurate.
Q: When is the U.S. considered “paid”?
When the dinar held gains value through reinstatement.
🧩 Final Analysis
This is not about speculation.
This is about logic, structure, and monetary mechanics.
The Central Bank is autonomous
Political timelines do not dictate monetary authority
Budgets, laws, and settlements require valuation
Payment occurs only when value exists
The order matters.
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Jeff
The central bank is completely autonomous. They can change the rate whenever they want. What we don't know is do they perceive or deem the formation of the government as a level being completed. Is that a level of stability regarding the rate change?
We'll never know. We can't confirm. We have no way to verify that...It does make sense for them to change the rate before the government is done formed and completed. Reason why is they still have quite a bit of things they have to do after the rate changes. They have to approved 150+ laws. One of those would be the '26 budget.
Remember Trump said back in January of 2020 the US is not going to exit until they pay us. Well, we have a gazillion dinar, but technically they haven't paid us until that dinar has a value applied to it. That's when we're paid, when they've revalued and the currency that we have has value...and they've reinstated.
