The dollar market is on “one leg”.. A new mechanism and the exchange rate is threatened!
12/22/2024
The Central Bank of Iraq is preparing to stop dealing with the electronic platform for dollar transfers abroad, at a time when experts have warned against raising the exchange rate to a higher level in light of the news circulating about this.
The electronic platform was launched in early 2023, and it represents a system for auditing dollar transfers before they are executed, instead of the audit that the US Federal Reserve used to conduct after execution.
Banks, companies and merchants in Iraq faced some challenges before adapting to the new method, but they finally underwent a series of trainings that the employees of these banks received before fully adapting to the platform’s work.
Exchange rate hike
In light of these moves, news has been raised about a move towards a new adjustment to the exchange rate, which has raised economists’ concerns about the potential impact of this move on the economic process in general.
Experts stressed that sudden changes in monetary policy could create additional confusion in the markets and undermine confidence in the financial system.
Economic expert Mustafa Akram Hantoush said, “Changing the exchange rate in the current situation is useless, because the problem is not in purchasing power, but in the demand for the dollar outside the platform due to small traders, trade with Iran, and some materials that are imported outside the platform due to high customs duties or their ban, in addition to the citizens’ desire to save the dollar.”
Hantoush added to Al Jarida that “it is better to find solutions to the increasing demand for the dollar outside the platform instead of resorting to changing the exchange rate, because that will complicate the monetary situation even more than it is now.”
clear policy
According to an official at the Central Bank of Iraq, dealing with the dollar file was based on various opinions built on a series of studies and field research.
The official, who preferred to remain anonymous, explained to Al Jarida that “the bank adopted two main approaches to address the crisis. The first is to expand the use of international currencies such as the Chinese yuan, the Indian rupee, the UAE dirham, and finally the Saudi riyal, with the aim of reducing dependence on the dollar. The second approach focuses on developing the operational capabilities of local banks to become more qualified to participate in transfer operations.”
For his part, banking researcher Mahmoud Dagher explained that “the fluctuation of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate came as a result of two decisions to reduce the value of the dinar in 2020 and then raise it in 2023, which represents a clear intervention in the fixed exchange rate system, which created ongoing economic confusion.”
Dagher told Al Jarida that “any new change in the exchange rate reflects the absence of benefit from previous mistakes, as wrong interventions in monetary policy lead to adverse results that increase the instability of the financial market.”
As for the economic expert, Adi Al-Alawi, he confirmed that “the biggest mistake that the government can make is to manipulate the dollar exchange rate through sudden decisions, because that has a direct impact on the national economy and shakes investors’ confidence in the financial system.”
Al-Alawi added to Al-Jarida that “the government’s continued taking of ill-considered decisions regarding the exchange rate will lead to the erosion of international and local confidence in the Iraqi economy, which will weaken the ability to attract the investments necessary to improve the economic reality.” LINK
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