2025.. The year of cautious optimism in Iraq, 23 DEC

   2025.. The year of cautious optimism in Iraq

The international economics specialist, Nawar Al-Saadi, revealed, on Saturday, the future financial and economic expectations for Iraq at the beginning of the new year 2025 .

Al-Saadi told Shafaq News Agency, "The future economic and financial expectations for Iraq at the beginning of the new year carry a mixture of optimism and caution, as they depend largely on a set of economic, political and regional factors that directly affect the country's financial and economic stability ."

He added that "international estimates indicate an improvement in Iraq's economic growth rates, according to reports from the International Monetary Fund, which expected the Iraqi economy to grow by 1.4% next year, with an expected increase of 5.3% in 2025. This growth reflects the recovery of the economy after the challenges it faced in the past years, especially after the economic contraction of 2.2% in 2022, and economic growth will be mainly driven by the stability of oil prices and increased investments in non-oil sectors ."

Al-Saadi pointed out that “there are fears of a deterioration in the financial situation due to the expected deficit in the state’s general budget, as the deficit is expected to widen to 7.6% of GDP during the coming year, compared to 1.3% this year.

This deficit is attributed to fluctuations in oil prices, which are the main source of government revenues, and the economic situation is further complicated by the heavy dependence on oil, which constitutes about 90% of Iraq’s revenues. Any decline in its global prices could lead to severe financial pressures on the government .”

“Other challenges relate to inflation rates, which are expected to rise slightly to 3.5% in 2025. This rise reflects the effects of financial pressures and internal economic challenges, including higher prices for goods and services as a result of increased production and import costs. In terms of oil production, Iraq is expected to continue to maintain a high level of production, with plans to boost its production capacity to around 4 million barrels per day by the first quarter of 2025. However, the success of these efforts will remain linked to political stability and relations with OPEC, in addition to achieving long-term investments in energy infrastructure, ” he added.

Al-Saadi continued: “With regard to the banking sector, the government seeks to implement structural reforms to improve the efficiency of the banking system and increase transparency. These reforms come within a larger vision to develop the Iraqi economy and diversify sources of income away from excessive dependence on oil .”

The international economics expert concluded his speech by referring to all the aforementioned data, saying that “Iraq may be facing hot economic and financial events at the beginning of the new year, and the main challenge lies in the government’s ability to manage these challenges effectively through balanced financial and economic policies that aim to enhance economic stability and diversify the economy to achieve sustainable growth  link