DINAR REVALUATION REPORT: IMF Article VIII and Its Implications for Iraq in 2024, 14 SEPT

 IMF Article VIII and Its Implications for Iraq in 2024

In 2024, the relationship between Iraq and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under Article VIII of the IMF's Articles of Agreement has been a significant focus of economic discussions. 1 Article VIII centers on the provision of regular economic consultations and surveillance by the IMF, aiming to promote stability and growth in member countries. For Iraq in 2024, these consultations have led to critical assessments and recommendations regarding fiscal policy, economic diversification, and structural reforms. 3

Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy

The IMF's 2024 Article IV Consultation highlighted Iraq's projected economic growth, driven by fiscal expansion. 1 The expansion is expected to boost growth in the short term but raises concerns about fiscal and external account vulnerabilities in the medium term, particularly in relation to oil price volatility. 2 The IMF recommended a significant fiscal adjustment, emphasizing the need to control the public wage bill and increase non-oil tax revenues to ensure fiscal sustainability.  1

Economic Diversification and Structural Reforms

Recognizing Iraq's heavy reliance on oil revenues, the IMF underlined the importance of economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks and foster long-term growth. 1 Recommendations included enabling private sector development through labor market reforms, modernizing the financial sector, restructuring state-owned banks, and reforming the pension and electricity sectors. 1 These reforms are crucial for absorbing the expanding labor force, boosting non-oil exports, and broadening the tax base.

Non-Oil Economy and Inflation

The non-oil sector of Iraq's economy is projected to continue growing, although risks persist, including potential declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts.  5Headline inflation has declined, reflecting lower international food and energy prices and the impact of currency revaluation. 5 Despite this, Iraq's fiscal position worsened due to lower oil revenue and increased expenditure. 5

Iraq's Relationship with the IMF

Iraq's membership with the IMF since 1945 has involved regular economic surveillance and lending commitments. 3 The most recent loan from the IMF, approved in 2016, aimed to help Iraq manage lower oil prices and maintain debt sustainability. 6

Concluding Thoughts

The implications of IMF Article VIII for Iraq in 2024 underscore the need for balanced fiscal policies, economic diversification, and structural reforms. While the fiscal expansion is expected to stimulate growth in the short term, sustainable economic development will require addressing the country's reliance on oil revenues and implementing reforms to foster a more resilient and diversified economy.