DINAR REVALUATION : Iraq's Economic Outlook for 2024: Stability, Security, and the Dinar's Strength, 26 AUGUST

Iraq's Economic Outlook for 2024: Stability, Security, and the Dinar's Strength

Iraq's economic landscape in 2024 is characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Its economy, heavily dependent on oil, is navigating through a period of global economic uncertainty, which has implications for its fiscal health and overall stability. 1

Economic Growth and Oil's Role

Growth in 2024 is anticipated to be modest, influenced by OPEC's production cuts and the fluctuation in oil prices.  1 Iraq, as the second-largest producer within OPEC, is adhering to these cuts, impacting its export revenues. The revaluation of the dinar in February 2023 has further complicated the situation by weakening the local currency equivalent of exports.

Non-Oil Sector: A Bright Spot?

Despite challenges in the oil sector, the non-oil GDP growth is expected to be bolstered by investment projects funded by the USD 150 billion budget approved by Parliament in June 2023.  1 Infrastructure projects, such as the reconstruction of Mosul airport, and increased public spending, including a raise in the minimum wage, are anticipated to support private consumption and stimulate economic activity.

Fiscal Situation and Oil Dependence

Iraq's economy remains heavily reliant on oil, with revenues from this sector accounting for a significant portion of government income.  2 This dependence exposes the country to volatility, as seen in the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on Iraq's fiscal health. However, in 2021, government revenues surged due to higher oil prices, reaching a surplus of 5.3% of GDP. 2

Challenges Ahead

The IMF has highlighted the need for Iraq to reduce its oil dependence to ensure fiscal sustainability. 4 This will involve controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues. Moreover, enabling private sector development through labor market reforms and financial sector modernization is crucial for higher economic growth and to absorb the expanding labor force. 4

Stability and Security Implications

Iraq's political and security situation is inextricably linked to its economic stability. 5 The overreliance on oil revenues has contributed to political and economic strife, with any downturn in oil prices leading to fiscal stress. The health of the economy, in turn, affects social cohesion and the country's security landscape.

Outlook for the Dinar

The strength of the Iraqi dinar is influenced by oil prices, fiscal policies, and global economic conditions. 1 Its revaluation in 2023 has affected the economy, highlighting the interplay between the currency's value and the country's economic stability.

Conclusion

Iraq's path to economic stability in 2024 is contingent on a multitude of factors, both internal and external. The government's efforts to diversify the economy and manage fiscal resources effectively will be key determinants of success. The country's security situation and social cohesion are also crucial, as they directly impact economic performance and investor confidence.