Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al Mansour With the fluctuation in the value of the dinar against the dollar since last week, it was noted that there are some predictions and signals from here and there that hint directly or indirectly that the dollar contract will disintegrate to a state in which it will move far away from the target level.
In fact, some have predicted that the dollar will escape from the control of the Central Bank. Here we had a pause with these predictions and signals.
It is self-evident in the logic of supply and demand that we sense a rise in the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar for reasons related to the tightening measures of the official supply, as the Central Bank targets the stability of the actual exchange rate and is trying to achieve a reduction in the gap between the nominal and real prices.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the dollar exchange rate has risen these days and for a week in particular. In this case, we say that the rise and fluctuation in the levels of the actual exchange rate cannot be judged based on it and concluded from it that the actual exchange rate may be exposed to a breakdown in the short term, because the fluctuation towards an increase during the week is not considered a fluctuation in the life of short-term changes, and also that the buffers of monetary policy are present and strong to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, because it uses monetary, financial and operational tools that aim to reduce the price level and keep inflation within an acceptable level.
And maintaining the level of foreign reserves within the desired growth rate and supporting the level of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar according to the fixed exchange rate system, which amounts to about 120 billion dollars, works to cover the source of currency.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank is still maintaining its level and short-term rates, a path with an acceptable general trend within the controlled levels based on the effects of And external, organizational or random variables. It is also not possible to conclude that the dollar exchange rate will slip out of control in the short term, since the short-term price level did not rise beyond the 1515 range to the 1600 threshold or more, but rather returned to 1500 on Saturday evening.
In addition, the overall inflation index is controlled by the fiscal and monetary policy measures, as is known, through controlling the growth rate of foreign reserves and stabilizing the general price level resulting from reducing the internal supply of cash dollars in transactions, payments, contracts and commercial obligations since last year, criminalizing and regulating them.
The parallel exchange market has become of low impact outside the official exchange market, with a gap ranging around 10-18 for the total dollar demand and supply.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the clear stability witnessed by the dinar in its real levels is due to the stability of the exchange rate at this gap, in addition to the measures and policies of the Central Bank supporting the reduction of the gap between the two exchange rates for about a year, including the legal and monetary ones. Since the recent fluctuation was limited to the aforementioned 10-18 range, which means that the effectiveness of targeting is still within the acceptable level, since the parallel price system is considered subordinate to the targeted price system, since the first Based on the second in the mathematical and economic effects.
Therefore, it is too early to predict the dollar exchange rate will deteriorate in the presence of these political and procedural variables. 2024/07/14 https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=45216
No comments:
Post a Comment