"RV UPDATE" BY SANDY INGRAM, 1 JULY

Sandy Ingram

  The four factors that have or can affect the Iraqi dinar currency...The first...is the '24 budget...presents a significant issue for Iraq.  The World Bank's assessment that Iraq needs an oil price of $90/barrel to meet budget requirements is a stark contrast to the current oil price of around $80...This ongoing issue boils down to how the World Bank reviews financial data and how Iraq view the same data.   The second factor...until 2014 Iraq almost always created jobs for college graduates...In the eyes of Iraq, a government career is part of the benefits of being an oil rich county...One reason the budget is so large is that Iraq is budgeting for over 700,000 new government jobs.

The third factor...there are two exchange rates in Iraq...The official rate is round 1310 to $1.00.  The market rate...fluctuates higher around, 1450 to $1.00 and cause issues, even protests.  The market rate is the rate at which people live day-to-day... Because Iran and Syria need and want US dollars the US Federal Reserve has encouraged Iraq to rely more on the Iraqi dinar than the US dollar.  This effort keeps Iraq out of trouble with the US Federal Reserve and the Department of Treasury...The issue of the two exchange rates is expected to be resolved over time.  As of January 1, 2024 all transactions are mandated to be conducted in Iraqi dinars and the gap between the official exchange rate and the market value is anticipated to decrease, offering a sense of stability

...This is the most concerning issue that is brewing.  All oil revenue paid to OPEC is in US dollars...Iraq's oil revenue is received by the US Federal Reserve first and then allocated to Iraq...The fact there are backroom talks over the position of OPEC going forward leaves [us] concerned for Iraq's Financial safety especially if the country wants to receive oil revenues in the dinar currency.  However this would be one of the best steps to strengthen Iraq's currency...OPECs power is being threatened from within and this could lead to an uncomfortable situation for Iraq.