Iraq's most stable period in 30 years: Closer ties with Ankara, waning relations with Washington, 5 MAY

 Iraq's most stable period in 30 years: Closer ties with Ankara, waning relations with Washington, 5 MAY

Shafaq News / The Atlantic Council Institute provided an analysis on the first visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Iraq in over a decade, and his first visit as President, following years of strained relations. 

This visit has paved the way for a new phase of strategic cooperation in vital areas such as energy, trade, and security, amidst a backdrop of dwindling confidence in Baghdad and Ankara regarding American influence in the region.

The report suggested that the "convergence of interests between Ankara and Baghdad could lead to Iraq experiencing its most stable period since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Erdogan's visit has laid the groundwork for enhancing regional stability and prosperity, with indirect ramifications for the Kurdistan Region."

Describing the past decade's Iraqi-Turkish relations as fraught, due to contentious issues like the legal battle over Kurdistan Region oil exports via pipelines to Turkiye, Turkish military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil, and disputes over water flow from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the report noted that "amidst the Middle East's upheavals, there is a growing recognition among Turkish and Iraqi leaders of the need to protect their interests and support stability through regional cooperation."

The report indicated that the United States and Iran indirectly played a role in prompting the visit. "Despite Iraq's public calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces, it still relies on Washington for counterterrorism aid and financial assistance. However, Baghdad seeks to reduce this dependence by bolstering security and developmental cooperation with Turkiye and the Gulf states."

Simultaneously, the report suggested that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani must "carefully manage Iranian influence while balancing or diminishing it, and developing relations with Turkiye represents another dimension of this strategy."

The report quoted an observer in Erbil stating that "the symbolic purpose of the Iraqi visit is to demonstrate Baghdad's fruitful relationships with its northern and southern neighbors, not just its dominant eastern neighbor." 

It also cites a commentator likening Baghdad's relationship with Turkiye to the historical significance of the gates built by Abbasid Caliph Abu Jaafar al-Mansour, particularly the gate facing Khurasan, suggesting that "Baghdad's gate was not solely open to Iran and Khurasan."

The report suggested that waning confidence in American plans for the region provides Turkiye and Iraq, both U.S. allies, with additional incentives for cooperation. "However, skepticism exists among Iraqis and Turks regarding U.S. commitment to stability, sovereignty, and democracy in the region, while regional observers question whether the U.S. has militarily deterred Iran in Iraq or Syria, or if it is even capable of doing so."

Furthermore, the report called attention to the fact that the United States has backed a major development and transportation project, the Indian Corridor, surpassing both Turkiye and Iraq. 

It asserted that countering the Indian Corridor project has spurred efforts to recalibrate bilateral relations between Baghdad and Ankara, with a focus on the "Development Road" project linking the large Faw Port in Basra governorate to global markets via Turkiye, with investment from Qatar and the UAE, thus integrating Iraq into regional and global economic networks.

Amidst approximately three agreements between Baghdad and Ankara, the report suggested that from Turkiye's perspective, "cooperation and legal clearance for its operations against the PKK constitute the most urgent area for tangible progress."

The report noteed positive portrayals of the visit in Iraqi and Turkish media, with Turkish reports emphasizing Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's diplomatic finesse and strategic resolve, focusing on potential mutual economic gains and highlighting the expected benefits of the "Development Road" project, such as its potential to erode the PKK's control over vast areas in northern Iraq. Iraqi media stress the long-standing problems that need resolution and the wide-ranging possibilities for development and improved relations.  ;

Kurdish coverage of the visit applauds officials and experts for Turkish engagement in Iraq, underscoring Ankara's need to maintain robust relations with Erbil and Baghdad to prevent the exclusion of the Kurdistan Region from the benefits of close ties.

The report asserted that "this clear new chapter in bilateral relations has boundaries and entails risks. One limitation is the Iraqi government's limited ability to access the PKK, given its restricted military and intelligence resources in remote border areas where the PKK is active."

"There are possibilities that Baghdad may offer potential support for countering the PKK to persuade Ankara to reduce its support for the Kurdistan Regional Government, but such a possibility poses a strategic risk that Ankara must be cautious about, as the close relationship between Ankara and Erbil has brought significant economic and security benefits to both."

The report also cited continued Iranian influence in Baghdad and doubts about Turkish influence there, something its allies and clients will certainly seek to minimize.

"The Development Road adds a new economic dynamic to the bilateral equation, making the promise of enhanced neighborhood relations more substantial than previous expressions of intent."

It further asserted that within the increasingly turbulent regional framework, coupled with the new Gulf-backed economic project, the current axis may indeed be significant strategically, potentially leading to Iraq's most stable period between neighbors since Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.