" RV UPDATE" BY KAPERONI, 9 MARCH

Kaperoni  

IMF report:  "Iraq: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 IMF Article IV Mission" 

 Quote: "The authorities should therefore seek to enable private sector development, including...modernization of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms...and continued efforts to...reduce corruption." 

 I have been stating something similar for years.  If the Iraqi dinar is ever going to go up in value, it's going to be as a direct result of Iraq diversifying and growing their economy.  Iraq needs to quit stalling and pass legislation to encourage and invite investment into their own country. 

 If Iraq is ever going to raise the value of the dinar they need to do it gradually over time so they can reduce the money supply.  As well, a gradual increase reflects the economic growth of the economy.

I remind people again Iraq's entire net worth including all minerals in the ground including oil is only worth about $16 trillion dollars. With over 100 trillion dinar in circulation Iraq could never RV the dinar!  Only with the success and growth of Iraq's economy and private-sector can the dinar go up in value. It could go up gradually over time as Iraq's GDP increases.

 I still have significant concern over Iraq wanting to redenominate (LOP) their currency. There  are numerous educational symposiums teaching the citizens about such an event. This is a very real possibility. 

Article "US and Iraq agree to start talks to end presence of US-led coalition"

The dinar either rises gradually over time as Iraq's economy prospers reducing the money supply or Parliament will authorize the deletion of zeros reducing trillions to billions and a LOP. Not what we want to see.

 there is no way Iraq can RV the Iraqi dinar with [120] trillion dinar in circulation. No country could afford. Iraq's total net worth is only around $16 trillon dollars.

 There is no significant RV of the Iraqi dinar.  And if the dinar does ever go up in value, it will be based on the success and growth of Iraq's own economy.  There are no shortcuts.

  Article:   "Ali Al-Alaq, the current governor of the Central Bank of Iraq confirms that Iraq's money supply exceeds 100 trillion dinar."

 If and when the Central Bank decides to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar more than likely it will be based on some type of gradual float as a result of the success and growth of Iraq's own economy and an increase in GDP.

I hope each and every one of you find success in this investment...It may take time.  It may  be another 1 to 5 years.  I certainly hope not but I believe things could happen quickly over the next 36 to 48 months.  It all depends on Iraq.  

 ...We all know things don't happen fast in Iraq. Iraq has a lot of work to do in order to succeed. The first of which is pass over 100 stalled laws through Parliament to encourage investment in Iraq.  And at the same time the Central Bank of Iraq has to continue reforms to the banking system, digitalization, and apply monetary tools to meet compliance .

 A country's exchange rate is the result of the success and growth of their own economy. When you have a weak economy, you have a weak exchange rate.  Until Iraq passes laws, diversifies their economy and increases their GDP, nothing will happen with the dinar.   When Iraq passed their tripartite  3 year budget a few months back, it created the conditions for them to diversify and privatize their economy over the next three years.   Now Iraq is on the clock to accomplish such.

There's a new article out that many people are translating and confusing.  They are not talking about an RV in Iraq, they are talking about the spread being in compliance early next year. 

 Just a reminder the spread is the difference between the official rate and the market rate or street rate and has been way out of whack recently in Iraq. This article simply means they expect the spread to come down closer to the official rate early next year. There is no RV.

    A very important statement was made back in 2020 by the prime minister's economic advisor Mohamed Salah who used to be Deputy Governor of the CBI under Shabibi. He stated that Iraq's entire wealth including all minerals in the ground amounts to only $16 trillion dollars. Knowing that information one can then determine that there is no way a significant RV could ever occur with over 90 trillion dinar in circulation.  It doesn't make sense...

 They...have to have the dinar stabilized within the country and within the 2% rule mandated by the IMF in order to then accept IMF article VIII and begin to float the dinar which would raise its value based on supply and demand.  All of these processes and or steps required time.

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