What Is Expected From The OPEC+ Meeting Today? And The Most Likely Scenarios
Time: 11/30/2023 Read: 1,183 times {Economic: Al-Furat News} The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) postponed the 51st meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, and the 36th ministerial meeting of “OPEC+” countries, to today, Thursday, November 30 {today, Thursday}, instead of the 25th and 26th of the same month. And then later converting it to a virtual meeting, a lot of speculation about the reasons for postponement, and expected scenarios.
Below are the most frequently asked questions in the market in this regard, and the answers of oil sector analysts to them:
Why was the OPEC+ meeting postponed?
According to what Bloomberg reported from sources in OPEC, the main reason for postponing the meeting of OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) is to give the oil and energy ministers of the coalition countries more time to discuss the new cuts called for by Saudi Arabia with their governments in order to reach an agreement to reduce production. On the other hand, some sources said that the reason is the continuation of negotiations with three African countries (Angola, Nigeria, and Congo) that objected to their production quotas that will come into effect starting on the first day of next year 2024.
Why was it converted to a virtual meeting?
As for converting it to a virtual one, it may be a sign that countries do not want an in-person meeting in the Austrian capital, Vienna, without confirmation of the existence of an agreement. It may be converted to virtual coinciding with the presence of some ministers in Dubai to attend the opening of the Climate Summit (COP 28), which is being held for the first time in a member state of OPEC or the “OPEC+” alliance.
Why do African countries object to quotas despite previously agreeing to them?
African countries are in dire need to export the largest possible amount of oil in order to finance the budgets of these countries, which are considered poor even though they are oil producers. This is why, historically, it has always objected to the quotas imposed on it and tried to obtain a production ceiling higher than what was given to it.
Bloomberg: OPEC+ is close to agreeing on oil production quotas for Angola and Nigeria
But what happened this time is that the three African countries (Angola, Nigeria, and Congo) had objected to the quotas at the organization’s last meeting last summer, and then external expert houses were appointed to evaluate the production capacity of these countries for the year 2024, and then review these numbers again to ensure that they are accurate. Her health. According to what Bloomberg reported from sources, these three countries were not satisfied with the evaluation provided by the expert houses.
Who evaluated the shares of these countries?
The parties that assessed the shares of these countries were not OPEC or OPEC+, but rather three independent sources: IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy.
What are the shares agreed upon in the new agreement and when will they start working?
The currently agreed-upon quotas began to be implemented in January 2023, and later this year during the last ministerial meeting of the organization and its allies, the agreement was extended to the end of 2024 and new quotas were agreed upon to take effect at the beginning of next year.
Below is a detailed table of the agreed production quotas for the year 2024 compared to the current production ceiling:
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