EXCLUSIVE: US WARNING: IRAQ HAS ONLY FIVE MONTHS’ WORTH OF “FINANCIAL BUFFERS” TO AVOID “THE MOTHER OF ALL CRISES”
Mustafa Hashim
On Wednesday, economist Ziad Dawood painted a “bleak” picture of the future of the Iraqi economy in light of the sharp fluctuations in global oil prices, warning that the country could find itself facing “bitter choices” within a few months if the growing financial gap is not addressed.
In remarks made during economic discussions at the Iraq Dialogue Day at the Atlantic Council in Washington, which was attended by a correspondent from Shafaq News Agency, Dawood explained that Iraq is currently experiencing a state of “excessive dependence” on oil revenues, which makes its budget more vulnerable to external shocks than it was in the crises of 2008, 2014 and 2020.
SALARIES AND CURRENCY VALUE
Dawood defined the concept of “economic crisis” in Iraq with two main axes that represent the existential obligations of the state:
1. Currency stability: Maintaining the dinar’s peg to the dollar at its current levels.
2. Salaries and obligations: The ability to pay employee salaries, wages, and pensions without delay.
Daoud warned that failing to meet either of these commitments would mean entering “the mother of all crises,” stressing that the process of “currency revaluation” (devaluing the currency) is a painful process economically and socially.
NARROW SAFETY MARGIN
The economist presented a detailed calculation to estimate the length of time Iraq could withstand the decline in oil revenues:
Reserves: The Central Bank of Iraq has approximately $100 billion.
Currency cover: To ensure the stability of the dinar and maintain the circulating money supply, the central bank needs to allocate about $75 billion as cover.
Available surplus: Iraq practically has only $25 billion left that can be used to cover the deficit.
Payroll: The annual cost of salaries and pensions is approximately $64 billion, which is equivalent to about $5.3 billion per month.
The result: According to Dawood, the available surplus ($25 billion) is only enough to cover salaries for five months in the event of a sharp interruption or decline in oil revenues, before the country reaches “the brink of collapse”.
POST-WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS
Dawood indicated that Iraq may experience a period of relative stability until next July, coinciding with the celebrations for the 2026 World Cup, but he expressed deep concern about the price levels and economic pressures that will follow this period.
He concluded his statement by emphasizing that Iraq faces “difficult choices,” as dependence on oil has increased rather than decreased, making any disruption in global markets a direct threat to the social and economic stability of Iraqis.
El pasado 8 de mayo mi contacto en los Sombreros Blancos me escribió lo siguiente: "La activación de la Alianza BRICS, junto con NESARA/GESARA y el despliegue completo del Sistema Financiero Cuántico, está impulsando el Reinicio Monetario Global y el QFS respaldado por oro en 209 naciones.
Trump ha asegurado el Tesoro soberano, rastándolo de las manos de la cábala de una vez por todas".
"La activación de la Alianza BRICS, conjuntamente con NESARA/GESARA y el despliegue total del Sistema Financiero Cuántico está dirigiendo el Reseto Global del Sistema Monetario y el QFS avalado por oro en 209 naciones. Trump ha asegurado que el Tesoro vuelva a ser soberano, arrebatándoselo a la cábala de una vez y para siempre".
💥 WHAT ARE MARKZ & DR. SCOTT YOUNG SAYING ABOUT BOND HOLDERS, REDEMPTION CENTERS & THE QFS? 💥
💰 BOND HOLDERS: According to discussions in the RV community, certain “historic bond holders” are believed to be among the FIRST groups expected to receive payouts before any broader public currency exchanges.
📜 These include: ➡️ Historic German bonds ➡️ Chinese bonds ➡️ Sovereign or legacy financial instruments
👀 MarkZ says he continues hearing reports that: ✔️ Bond meetings are happening ✔️ Some bond holders are under NDAs ✔️ Certain groups are allegedly “moving toward funding”
⚠️ HOWEVER: No official public confirmation has been provided by governments or major financial institutions.
🏦 REDEMPTION CENTERS: MarkZ frequently talks about specialized “redemption centers” that the RV community believes could handle: 💵 Dinar exchanges 💰 Higher negotiated rates 📄 Bond redemptions 🔐 Secure financial appointments
📞 The theory is that: ➡️ Selected individuals may receive notifications or “800 numbers” ➡️ Appointments would then be scheduled ➡️ Exchanges/redemptions would happen in controlled locations
⚠️ Critics note there is still NO verified evidence that such centers officially exist for public dinar exchanges.
🌍 QFS — QUANTUM FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Dr. Scott Young discussed the idea of a future financial system designed to: ✔️ Increase transparency ✔️ Reduce corruption ✔️ Digitize financial tracking ✔️ Potentially replace parts of the traditional SWIFT banking structure
💡 In these discussions, QFS is often described as: 🔹 Asset-backed 🔹 Secure 🔹 AI-assisted 🔹 Globally interconnected
Some supporters believe the QFS could eventually: ➡️ Manage debt systems
➡️ Monitor financial capacity ➡️ Process global settlements ➡️ Support a future financial reset
⚠️ But again: There is NO officially confirmed operational global “QFS” replacing the current world banking system at this time.
📞 POSSIBLE NOTIFICATIONS & ROLLOUTS: MarkZ says rumors continue about: 📲 Notifications being prepared ☎️ 800 numbers circulating internally 🏦 Banking personnel on standby 🌍 Staggered financial rollouts worldwide
BUT both MarkZ and Dr. Scott Young repeatedly stress: 🧠 Use discernment 🧠 Avoid blind hype 🧠 Separate facts from speculation
⏳ Their overall message: Big global financial changes MAY be developing behind the scenes — but timing and outcomes remain uncertain.
⚠️ IRAQ UPDATE: MAY 27th could become a MAJOR turning point for Iraq and the Middle East 🌍🔥
🗳️ Iraq’s Iran-aligned Coordination Framework selected businessman Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister-designate after months of political chaos, pressure, threats, and negotiations.
⏳ Zaidi now has ONLY 30 days — until MAY 27 — to build a government cabinet acceptable to: 🇮🇷 Pro-Iran factions 🇺🇸 U.S. interests 🇰🇷 Kurdish blocs ☀️ Sunni alliances
❗If he FAILS to form a government:
➡️ Iraq’s President can nominate another candidate ➡️ PM Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani stays temporarily as caretaker leader ➡️ Political uncertainty could continue deep into summer 2026
🔥 MNT GOAT’S TAKE: Mnt Goat warns people NOT to jump to conclusions claiming Iraq’s RV or massive economic breakthrough is “imminent” without real evidence.
💬 She says: ⚠️ “This election could drag out all through the summer.” ⚠️ “Let’s not go off half-cocked with ideas that the RV is imminent.” ⚠️ “There is no evidence to back up those claims right now.”
👀 According to her analysis: ➡️ Iraq remains stuck in a fragile political balancing act ➡️ Power struggles behind the scenes are still intense ➡️ Government formation could become prolonged and messy ➡️ The outcome may shape Iraq’s economic direction for years
🌍 WHY THIS MATTERS: Iraq remains one of the most important geopolitical battlegrounds between:
🇺🇸 United States 🇮🇷 Iran 🇷🇺 Russia 🇨🇳 China
⚖️ Iraq’s post-2003 political system was specifically designed to prevent another Saddam Hussein-style dictatorship by dividing power among: 👤 Prime Minister (Shia Arabs) 🏛️ President (Kurds) 📜 Parliament Speaker (Sunni Arabs)
⚠️ Analysts warn that prolonged deadlock could delay: 💰 Economic reforms 🏗️ Foreign investment 🛢️ Energy projects 🌍 Regional stability
🙏 Mnt Goat says the REAL hope should be for: ✔️ Honest leadership ✔️ Competent government ✔️ National stability ✔️ Moving Iraq FORWARD instead of backward
🎭 Final reminder from Mnt Goat: “The show is not over until the fat lady sings…”
HERE’S WHY MAY 27thIS NOW CRITICAL FOR IRAQ’S FUTURE AND THE WEST’S MIDDLE EAST
Iraq’s Iran-aligned Coordination Framework nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate, but he faces a difficult 30-day deadline to form a cabinet balancing pro-Iran factions, Kurdish and Sunni blocs, and U.S. pressure.
If Zaidi fails, Iraq’s constitution allows the president to nominate another candidate while caretaker PM Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani remains in office.
Iraq’s political future remains tied to the broader U.S.-Iran power struggle, with Washington, Tehran, Russia, and China all competing for influence.
After more than five months of political cajolery, threats, and infighting since Iraq’s 11 November parliamentary elections – the seventh since Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003 – an erstwhile obscure businessman, Ali al-Zaidi, has been selected as the Prime Minister-designate of the governing Iran-aligned Shia Coordination Framework bloc. Regarded as a compromise candidate between more pro-West sitting Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, and one of his predecessors, the pro-Iran Nouri al-Maliki, al-Zaidi now has until 27 May to form a government. This is done by selecting a cabinet, which must, in turn, be approved by Iraq’s parliament (the Council of Representatives). So, what happens if, as occurred in 2020, he as Prime Minister-designate cannot do so, and what happens if he can?
A cornerstone of Iraq’s 2005 Constitution was the safeguarding against the re-emergence of a single dominant force in Iraqi politics, especially any resurgence of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath Party. This meant a dispersal of executive power between three key jobs – Prime Minister, President, and Speaker of Parliament. These have traditionally been split between the three main groups in the country — the Prime Minister for the Shia Arabs (the largest demographic group), the Presidency for the Kurds (occupying the semi-autonomous state in the North), and the Speakership of Parliament for the Sunni Arabs (the other principal religious grouping). Although this power structure has indeed prevented any meaningful revival of the Ba’ath Party, it has also complicated what on the face of it looks a straightforward and quick procedure for choosing a new premier.
According to the constitution, once the general election results have been verified, the president asks the newly elected parliament to meet within 15 days. In that first gathering, parliament elects a speaker and two deputies by a simple majority vote. It can then choose a new president – provided there is a two-thirds majority for a single candidate — or extend the sitting president’s term. Once this has been finalized, the new president authorizes the bloc that holds the most seats in the new parliament to form a cabinet led by its chosen nominee for prime minister.
So what happens if al-Zaidi is unable to form a new government by May 27th?
Under Article 76 of the Constitution, the President (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan member and former Environment Minister, Nizar Amedi) has 15 days from the date of the deadline’s expiration (taking us to 11 June) to task another candidate with forming the Council of Ministers. The new nominee then receives their own 30-day window to present a cabinet and government program to the Council of Representatives, and so the process would continue until any of the subsequent Prime Minister-designates can form a new government.
In 2020, two consecutive Prime Minister-designates failed to take office after proving unable to assemble a cabinet with parliamentary support. In the interim period, the outgoing government – currently led by al-Sudani – would continue to function in a caretaker capacity to prevent a political vacuum.
(Mnt Goat: This election could drag out all through the summer. Do you see it too? So let’s not go off half-cocked with these ideas that the RV is imminent. This is obviously stupid to say at this point in time since there is no evidence to back up this claim. The show is not over until the fat lady sings…. Lol… But let’s pray for the best and for an honest, competent person will take over the helm and move Iraq forward not backward. Are you praying for Iraq? )
