Sunday, March 8, 2026
Foreign oil companies evacuate their employees from Iraq
Foreign oil companies evacuate their employees from Iraq
Reuters reported on Saturday that several foreign oil companies have begun evacuating their foreign staff from oil fields in Iraq to Kuwait.
This comes amid fears of an escalating conflict in the region, as the US military in recent days abruptly canceled a major military exercise planned for an elite paratrooper unit, a move that has sparked speculation within the US Department of Defense about the possibility of sending ground troops to the Middle East as the confrontation with Iran widens.
Financial and consulting institutions have warned of potential repercussions on global oil supplies if the war with Iran continues, pointing to the possibility of a large part of production being halted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Approximately 20% of the world's daily oil demand passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait effectively closed for seven days, this meant that roughly 140 million barrels of oil, equivalent to about 1.4 days of global demand, were unable to reach the market. link
JEFF: Why Government Formation Could Determine the Timing of a Rate Change
Iraqi Dinar Update: Why Government Formation Could Determine the Timing of a Rate Change
The question that continues to dominate discussions among dinar observers is simple: When will the Iraqi dinar rate change?
Recent commentary from analyst Jeff suggests that the answer may depend less on speculation and more on political developments inside Iraq, particularly the formation and stability of the government.
According to this perspective, the formation of Iraq’s government may be the “lynchpin” for any significant change in the currency’s value.
Featured Snippet (Quick Answer)
What could trigger a change in the Iraqi dinar rate?
Some analysts believe the formation of a stable Iraqi government—including a prime minister and cabinet—could provide the level of political stability required for a currency rate adjustment and stronger global economic integration.
Current Situation: Limited Government Activity
Jeff recently pointed out that very little government activity appears to be taking place at the moment.
Questions have been raised about whether Iraq’s parliament is actively meeting or pushing forward major legislative decisions tied to economic reforms.
According to his commentary:
Parliamentary activity appears limited
Major policy initiatives are on hold
Key political decisions are still pending
This pause in government momentum has led many analysts to conclude that political formation must occur before major financial steps are taken.
Why Government Formation Matters for the Dinar
Political stability plays a major role in economic decisions, especially those involving national currencies.
A fully functioning government provides:
Policy Direction
Economic reforms and monetary policy often require political approval.
Investor Confidence
Global investors typically wait for stable leadership before committing capital.
International Cooperation
Financial decisions often involve coordination with global institutions and foreign governments.
Because of this, analysts believe the completion of Iraq’s government structure could signal readiness for broader economic moves.
Returning to the World Stage
Jeff emphasized that the formation of Iraq’s leadership structure could allow the country to fully re-engage on the international stage.
This includes:
Expanding trade partnerships
Strengthening banking relationships
Increasing foreign investment
Implementing economic reforms
Such developments are often viewed as critical components for currency stability and growth.
Could the Dinar Revalue in March?
According to Jeff, a rate change could still potentially occur during March, depending on how quickly certain events unfold.
Key factors being watched include:
1. Prime Minister and Cabinet Progress
If leadership formation is finalized quickly, reforms could accelerate.
2. Political Stability
Stable governance often precedes major financial changes.
3. Regional Conflicts
The timing of ongoing geopolitical tensions could influence when economic decisions are implemented.
Because of these variables, Jeff suggests the timing could shift slightly.
March vs. April: Possible Timing Window
Based on the current situation, Jeff believes the timeline could fall into two possible windows:
Scenario 1: March Rate Change
If political formation happens quickly and geopolitical tensions ease, a currency move could theoretically happen within March.
Scenario 2: April Adjustment
If delays continue—either politically or due to regional instability—the timing may shift into April.
In other words, the pace of political developments may directly affect the timing.
Key Indicators to Watch
For those following Iraqi economic developments closely, several signals may provide clues:
Official announcements from Iraq’s leadership
Activity within the Iraqi parliament
Statements from the Central Bank
Regional geopolitical developments
Economic reform announcements
These indicators could help determine how quickly Iraq moves toward broader financial changes.
Q&A: Iraqi Dinar Rate Change
Q: What is preventing a rate change right now?
According to some analysts, the primary obstacle may be the lack of a fully formed government capable of implementing large-scale economic decisions.
Q: Why is government formation so important?
A stable government provides the political backing needed for economic reforms, financial policies, and international cooperation.
Q: Could the rate change suddenly?
Currency adjustments sometimes occur quickly once political and economic conditions align.
Q: Is there an official timeline for a dinar revaluation?
No official timeline has been confirmed by Iraqi authorities or the Central Bank.
Final Thoughts
The timing of any Iraqi dinar rate change continues to be closely tied to political stability and leadership formationinside Iraq.
If a government is finalized soon and regional tensions ease, analysts believe the country could begin moving forward with broader economic plans.
For now, observers remain focused on parliament activity, government formation, and geopolitical developmentsthat could shape the next steps.
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Jeff
We all want to know when the rate is going to change. Let's talk about not only when the rate is going to change...but what's really happening...Are they even having sessions of parliament? Is the government doing anything? Absolutely not. Zero in Iraq. They're not doing anything right now...The formation of Iraq's government is the lynch pin to the rate change...The formation o Iraq's government gets them back on the world stage. It's a critical level of stability needed.
They could still revalue within the month of March. But it'll depends on what happens with the prime minister and his cabinet...and how fast this war completes and finishes will determine on whether the rate changes in March or April.
Iraq And The Risks Of Closing The Strait Of Hormuz: Financial Repercussions And Strategic Options
Iraq And The Risks Of Closing The Strait Of Hormuz: Financial Repercussions And Strategic Options
Economy News – Baghdad Dr. Haitham Hamid Mutlaq Al-Mansour / Economist
Iraqi investment opportunities
In a report published by Reuters this week, JPMorgan warned that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would place significant pressure on oil exports from Iraq and Kuwait, potentially forcing both countries to reduce their production in the near future.
This warning comes amid the strategic importance of the strait, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and through which approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes, making it one of the most vital energy arteries for the international economy.
According to the aforementioned bank's estimates, a continued closure could halt a significant portion of oil supplies from both countries within a few days. Iraq possesses export reserves sufficient for only about three days, while Kuwait has a relatively larger capacity, enough to sustain exports for approximately fourteen days thanks to its available storage facilities.
With tanker traffic disrupted in this vital waterway, Iraq may be forced to reduce its exports through the strait. If tanker traffic continues to be disrupted in this crucial waterway, global oil supply could decline by approximately 3.3 million barrels per day by the eighth day of the conflict in the Middle East.
This could rise to about 3.8 million barrels per day by the fifteenth day, before reaching nearly 4.7 million barrels per day by the eighteenth day if the closure persists.
This scenario is particularly dangerous for Iraq given the rentier nature of its economy and its heavy reliance on oil revenues. Under normal circumstances, Iraq exports approximately 3.3 to 3.5 million barrels per day from its southern ports via the Gulf.
These exports constitute about 85–90% of total state revenues and nearly 60% of GDP, both directly and indirectly. Assuming an average oil price of $80 per barrel, halting the export of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day would mean a loss of about $264 million daily, equivalent to roughly $1.85 billion weekly.
These losses could exceed $8 billion monthly if the disruption continues.
These losses are quickly reflected in Iraq's public finances, as the annual budget amounts to approximately 150 trillion Iraqi dinars (around $115 billion), with over 90 trillion dinars of that amount dependent on oil revenues.
Therefore, a halt in exports for a period ranging from two weeks to a month could lead to a significant financial gap exceeding $6 billion to $10 billion, placing direct pressure on the government's ability to pay the salaries of 7 million employees, retirees, and social welfare beneficiaries, in addition to funding infrastructure projects and investment spending.
Furthermore, a decline in oil revenues of this magnitude could impact Iraq's foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank of Iraq, estimated at approximately $110-115 billion. The government might be forced to draw on these reserves to cover current expenditures and maintain the stability of the dinar's exchange rate.
Iraqi investment opportunities
As the crisis persists, Iraq's trade balance, which relies on crude oil for over 95% of its exports, could suffer a severe imbalance. This, in turn, would affect liquidity levels in the domestic economy and the state's ability to finance food and commodity imports.
Thus, the closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could transform from a mere crisis in global energy markets into a direct financial shock to the Iraqi economy, given its heavy structural dependence on oil exports, most of which transit through this strategic waterway.
Therefore, we suggest several necessary steps to address and mitigate the impact of the lockdown shock, as follows:
First: The political steps to mitigate the risks of the shock are based primarily on balanced diplomacy, seeking to reduce regional tensions, and strengthening Iraq’s role as a conciliatory actor in the region, in a way that protects its economic interests and reduces its exposure to the repercussions of geopolitical conflicts.
Secondly: Economic steps. From a "technical-economic" perspective, one of the most important alternatives within the framework of strategic treatment is:
1.Adopt flexible oil export policies by diversifying export routes and reducing dependence on the Gulf. Iraq has an alternative outlet via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. This requires expediting its reactivation and increasing its export capacity to more than 1 million barrels per day, thus providing a strategic outlet away from the geopolitical risks in the Gulf.
Furthermore, efforts can be made to revive the Basra-Aqaba pipeline project, which connects Iraq to the Red Sea via Jordan, with a design capacity that could reach 1 million barrels per day. This would give Iraq an additional outlet outside the sensitive straits.
2. A flexible storage policy aimed at expanding oil storage capacity both inside and outside Iraq. Increasing storage capacity to at least 20 to 30 million barrels in southern ports or in external storage facilities gives Iraq greater flexibility to continue production even in the event of a temporary export disruption, instead of having to reduce production within a few days.
3. Adopting prudent fiscal policies that reduce overall dependence on oil for budget financing by increasing non-oil revenues, particularly taxes and customs duties, and by stimulating productive sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. Raising the contribution of non-oil revenues from approximately 10% currently to 25% of total public revenues in the coming years will reduce the economy's vulnerability to oil price shocks.
4. One strategic financial measure is the establishment of a stabilization fund or sovereign emergency fund into which a percentage of oil revenues are transferred during periods of high prices. A fund of between $50 billion and $100 billion could provide a financial buffer, allowing the government to fund salaries and essential expenditures for several months in the event of a sudden export shock.
5. Iraq can work within the framework of coordination with OPEC and major producing countries to mitigate fluctuations in the global market, and seek temporary logistical arrangements in emergency situations, such as using pipelines or export facilities in other countries in the region.
Finally, the most effective solution is to diversify exports in the long term, so that oil is not the almost sole source of revenue. Increasing the contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP to more than 50% over the next decade will make the economy less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=66461
MNT GOAT: Why the CBI May Be Ready but Waiting for Global Stability
Iraqi Dinar Reinstatement Update: Why the CBI May Be Ready but Waiting for Global Stability
The conversation surrounding the Iraqi dinar reinstatement (RV) continues to intensify as analysts, insiders, and financial observers monitor developments inside Iraq and across the Middle East.
Recent commentary from analyst Mnt Goat suggests that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) may already be prepared for the long-anticipated monetary shift. However, geopolitical tensions—particularly involving Iran—could be delaying the timing of any major announcement.
In this article, we break down the latest claims, examine the possible geopolitical factors affecting the dinar, and explore what investors should watch in the coming weeks.
Featured Snippet (Quick Summary)
Is the Iraqi dinar about to be reinstated?
According to analyst Mnt Goat, the Central Bank of Iraq is reportedly prepared to move forward with a reinstatement of the Iraqi dinar. However, the process may depend on geopolitical stability in the region and potential approval from the United States, especially while tensions involving Iran continue.
The Iraqi Dinar and the Bigger Economic Vision
Supporters of the dinar reinstatement theory believe the currency could eventually return to international trading at a higher value.
Some analysts argue that Iraq's vast oil reserves, economic reforms, and banking modernization could position the dinar as part of a broader global currency restructuring.
According to Mnt Goat, Iraq could play a central role in a future basket of currencies designed to support emerging and resource-rich economies.
Key Points Often Discussed by Analysts
Iraq holds some of the largest oil reserves in the world
The Central Bank of Iraq has implemented banking reforms
International financial integration has increased in recent years
Currency stability is essential for large-scale investment
If these reforms continue, proponents believe Iraq could become a major economic hub in the Middle East.
CBI Readiness: What Sources Claim
Mnt Goat recently stated that a contact inside the Central Bank of Iraq suggested the bank may already be operationally ready for a currency reinstatement.
However, readiness does not necessarily mean immediate execution.
Financial changes of this magnitude often require coordination between:
International banks
Global financial institutions
Government approval
Geopolitical stability
According to the claim, the CBI may be waiting for the right political and economic conditions before proceeding.
Why Iran Tensions Could Delay the Dinar Reinstatement
One of the biggest factors mentioned in recent commentary is regional stability.
Mnt Goat indicated that current tensions involving Iran could be a temporary obstacle.
Large financial transitions typically avoid periods of instability because:
Markets react unpredictably during geopolitical conflicts
International investors seek stability before entering a market
Governments coordinate policy with allies and global institutions
For that reason, some observers believe major monetary announcements could be delayed until tensions calm down.
The Role of U.S. Approval in the Process
Another important claim involves the role of the United States.
According to Mnt Goat’s commentary, the CBI may need clearance or cooperation from the U.S. financial systembefore moving forward.
This idea stems from several realities:
Iraq’s banking system interacts heavily with international dollar clearing networks
U.S. sanctions policy influences regional finance
International banking standards often require coordination with Western financial institutions
While no official confirmation exists for these claims, analysts frequently point to global financial interdependence as a reason major currency events are carefully coordinated.
Why Iraq Is Considered a Key Piece in Middle East Economic Plans
Many geopolitical analysts believe Iraq has the potential to become a major economic bridge between East and West.
Several factors support this view:
Strategic Location
Iraq sits at a crossroads connecting the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
Energy Resources
The country remains one of the top oil producers globally.
Reconstruction and Investment
Massive infrastructure and rebuilding efforts continue to attract global interest.
Because of these factors, Iraq could play an important role in future regional economic strategies.
What Investors and Observers Are Watching Next
People following the dinar closely are paying attention to several indicators:
1. Political Stability in Iraq
Stable leadership often precedes economic reforms.
2. Regional Geopolitical Developments
Tensions involving neighboring countries could influence timing.
3. Central Bank Policies
Announcements from the Central Bank of Iraq remain one of the most important signals.
4. International Banking Integration
Steps toward deeper global financial integration could indicate progress.
Q&A: Iraqi Dinar Reinstatement Explained
Q: Is the Iraqi dinar going to revalue soon?
There is no official confirmation of a specific timeline. Analysts like Mnt Goat suggest the CBI may be prepared, but geopolitical stability could affect timing.
Q: What does “reinstatement” mean?
Reinstatement generally refers to restoring a currency to international trading markets at a new exchange value.
Q: Why would global events affect the Iraqi dinar?
Major currency changes often require coordination between governments, financial institutions, and international markets, which can be influenced by geopolitical stability.
Q: Does the U.S. control the Iraqi dinar?
No. Iraq controls its own currency through the Central Bank of Iraq, but international financial systems and partnerships can influence monetary decisions.
Final Thoughts
The discussion surrounding the Iraqi dinar reinstatement continues to evolve as analysts track political developments, banking reforms, and regional geopolitics.
While some insiders claim the Central Bank of Iraq may be ready, timing could depend heavily on stability in the Middle East and coordination with global financial partners.
For now, observers remain focused on upcoming political and economic developments that could shape Iraq’s financial future.
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Mnt Goat
I encourage you not to give up. Iraq will reinstate the dinar and Trump will move ahead with his plan to revitalize the middle east and Iraq is a huge part of the plan. The Iraqi dinar is going to be a hinge-pin of a new basket of currencies. This new basket will support many currencies...
..we are going to see this reinstatement shortly now that this matter of the elections is just about over. However let me say this – I do not expect any reinstatement until the clashes in Iran are over...my CBI contact suggested this to me too...The CBI is ready to move but needs a stable government to get permission from the U.S. With what is now going on in Iran I don’t believe for a second that the US is going to allow the reinstatement at least until this is over.
Saturday, March 7, 2026
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