Thursday, February 27, 2025
Is Iraq facing a cash crisis?, 27 FEB
The amount of money sold, domestically and internationally, by the Central Bank in dollars this year has exceeded $62 billion, resulting in the receipt of dinars in equivalent proportion, averaging approximately 80.6 trillion dinars for the year. Non-oil revenues generated from taxes, fees, and customs by the end of October 2024 amounted to 14.3 trillion dinars. Combined, these revenues total around 95 trillion dinars. However, by the end of October, Iraq's total expenditures had reached 122 trillion dinars. With two months of expenditures still unaccounted for, it is evident that the dinar reserves derived from oil-based dollar revenues have been exhausted.
This comes despite reports from the Central Bank's Foreign Currency Selling Window, which indicate that total transfers abroad (remittances and credits) this year have reached the highest level in seven years—34% higher than last year. Similarly, dinars returned to the Central Bank and subsequently to the Ministry of Finance in proportion to this increase. So why is there talk of a cash shortage affecting the distribution of December salaries for some ministries in Baghdad and the November salary allocations for the Kurdistan Region?
According to reports from the Iraqi Ministry of Finance on revenues and expenditures, total expenditures for the first nine months of this year amounted to 94.5 trillion dinars, including 85 trillion dinars in operating expenses and 9.5 trillion dinars in investment expenses. However, according to the Ministry of Finance's October report, total expenditures had climbed to 122.7 trillion dinars, with operating expenses accounting for 100.6 trillion dinars and investment expenses rising to 22 trillion dinars.
Looking back at previous months, it becomes evident that average monthly expenditures ranged between 10 and 11 trillion dinars. For instance, total expenditures from the beginning of the year to July were 73 trillion dinars, increasing to 83 trillion dinars in August and 94 trillion dinars in September—demonstrating consistent monthly spending within this range. However, expenditures surged dramatically in October, reaching 28.2 trillion dinars and bringing the total for the year to 122 trillion dinars by the end of that month.
This significant jump was driven by increases in both operating and investment expenditures. Operating expenditures, which typically ranged from 9 to 10 trillion dinars per month, rose to 15.6 trillion dinars in October, while investment expenditures, previously averaging 1 trillion dinars per month, soared to 12.6 trillion dinars in the same period.
As a result of the excessive expenditures in October, the Ministry of Finance now lacks the cash needed to cover expenses at the end of the year. October's spending was nearly triple the average monthly expenditure of previous months.While total revenues for the first 10 months exceeded expenditures,
converting the full oil revenue—received in dollars—into Iraqi dinars or conducting domestic transactions in dinars has not been feasible which is due to government policies mandating that all domestic transactions must be conducted in dinars, while foreign transactions must be conducted in dollars and processed through remittance.
According to the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, October's expenditures rose so significantly that the total amount of dinars generated from selling dollars domestically and internationally, combined with non-oil domestic revenues, was insufficient to cover the spending. Total expenditures for the month reached 28 trillion dinars, approximately 18 trillion dinars more than in previous months. It remains unclear how the Ministry of Finance plans to manage expenses for the remainder of the year, as 95% of Iraq's currency is held outside the banking system, which amounts to 95.5 trillion dinars out of a total of 101.3 trillion dinars by the end of November 2024.
The underlying issue here highlights the weaknesses in Iraq's monetary system and the absence of a coherent expenditure and revenue policy. Despite having not spent 60% of its allocated budget, the Ministry of Finance is already encountering significant challenges. Had the budget been fully implemented as planned, cash shortages would likely have arisen mid-year rather than at year-end.
In conclusion, is it true that Iraq has cash problems? Yes, Iraq is indeed facing cash problems. However, these issues are not caused by low oil revenues, declining oil prices, or a shortage of money or dollar issuance. Instead, the root cause lies in the government's economic expenditure policy, which allowed spending to surge by approximately 300% in a single month.
Ariel (@Prolotario1): Iraq was Given an Ultimatum, 27 FEB
Ariel (@Prolotario1): Iraq was Given an Ultimatum
I will give you something directly from one of my sources for the 1st time without any input from me. You can play around with the math on your own time.
Anon- As of February 2025, Iraq’s foreign reserves stand at approximately $740.7 billion USD, per Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) reports and IMF audits from January 2025. The redenomination outlined in the document involves introducing a new IQD supply of 17.3686 billion units, with 10% backed by reserves. At 43.13 USD per IQD, the backing covers $173.686 billion USD of the reserves (10% of 17.3686 billion × 43.13), leaving $567.014 billion USD for other economic needs (e.g., oil exports, debt repayment).
Adjusting to 42.00 USD per IQD: To achieve 1 IQD = 42 USD, the CBI would need to slightly reduce the value of the new IQD relative to the USD lowering it from 43.13 USD per IQD to 42 USD per IQD. This would mean recalibrating the total new IQD supply or the reserve backing. For example, if the supply remained 17.3686 billion new IQD, the reserve backing would adjust to: 17.3686 billion new IQD ×42 USD per IQD = 729.282 billion USD
17.3686 billion new IQD×42 USD per IQD=729.282 billion USD
This exceeds the $740.7 billion reserves, but Iraq could offset this by reducing the new IQD supply (e.g., to 17.6369 billion units) or increasing reserves through oil revenues, which hit $11.5 billion in January 2025 alone, per OPEC data.
Now do I personally think this is possible? Well only Iraq can answer that as they seem to have a good strategy in place. A 10, 17, 20 or 30 rate doesn’t matter to me at this point. I am just glad this is about to be over with. Iraq was just given an ultimatum today. They have to choose between America & Iran and they only have 24 hours left to make that decision. And it seems they already know the answer just based on the announcements today.
Many forget about this part. This tells you these figures are not coming out of nowhere. Why does it align with my post from my circle if I am pulling your leg?
Iraqi President reaffirms Iraq’s role as regional stabilizer, 27 FEB
Iraqi President reaffirms Iraq’s role as regional stabilizer
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid delivered a speech at the Erbil Forum 2025 on Wednesday, addressing the pressing political and security developments in the region and highlighting Iraq’s role as a regional stabilizer.
President Rashid stressed the need for “swift internal measures” to strengthen Iraq’s immunity to the “ongoing regional hostilities,” and called for continued “consultations with regional actors” to safeguard Iraq from the fallouts of the regional conflicts.
“Iraq will only be a factor of stability in the region, [promoting] friendship between peoples, and supporting the choices of peoples and nations aspiring to a free and dignified life,” Rashid said, emphasizing Iraq’s role as a stabilizing force in the region whose behaviour can be premised on diplomatic solutions and upholding the sovereignty of its neighbours.
President Rashid also welcomed the recent political changes in neighbouring Syria, expressing hope that these changes align with the democratic aspirations of the Syrian people, regardless of “their nationalities, components, and sects.”
He asserted Iraq’s readiness “to support any effort that helps foster internal stability” in Syria and affirmed Baghdad’s keenness to establish friendly relations with the new leadership in Damascus based on “mutual respect and cooperation, and non-interference in internal affairs.”
At the same time, the Iraqi President cautioned against the persistent threat of terrorism, which continues to undermine the security and stability of Iraq and neighboring countries. He urged greater collaboration to address the threat, stressing that “unifying the political visions and efforts, and achieving national integration is essential to thwart any new aggressive plots that have come to seriously threaten the countries of the region, not just Iraq.”
On the relationship between Erbil and Baghdad, the Iraqi President called for “intensifying cooperation and coordination between the [Iraqi] federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in all fields.” He reiterated the need for full adherence to the provisions of the constitution “to establish the principles of social justice and equality” among the ethnic and religious constituents of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region to “protect our democratic system.”
Lastly, President Rashid condemned the “aggression” against the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, reaffirming Iraq’s support for a cessation of violence, humanitarian relief, and the Palestinian people's right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent state.
President Rashid stressed the need for “swift internal measures” to strengthen Iraq’s immunity to the “ongoing regional hostilities,” and called for continued “consultations with regional actors” to safeguard Iraq from the fallouts of the regional conflicts.
“Iraq will only be a factor of stability in the region, [promoting] friendship between peoples, and supporting the choices of peoples and nations aspiring to a free and dignified life,” Rashid said, emphasizing Iraq’s role as a stabilizing force in the region whose behaviour can be premised on diplomatic solutions and upholding the sovereignty of its neighbours.
President Rashid also welcomed the recent political changes in neighbouring Syria, expressing hope that these changes align with the democratic aspirations of the Syrian people, regardless of “their nationalities, components, and sects.”
He asserted Iraq’s readiness “to support any effort that helps foster internal stability” in Syria and affirmed Baghdad’s keenness to establish friendly relations with the new leadership in Damascus based on “mutual respect and cooperation, and non-interference in internal affairs.”
At the same time, the Iraqi President cautioned against the persistent threat of terrorism, which continues to undermine the security and stability of Iraq and neighboring countries. He urged greater collaboration to address the threat, stressing that “unifying the political visions and efforts, and achieving national integration is essential to thwart any new aggressive plots that have come to seriously threaten the countries of the region, not just Iraq.”
On the relationship between Erbil and Baghdad, the Iraqi President called for “intensifying cooperation and coordination between the [Iraqi] federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in all fields.” He reiterated the need for full adherence to the provisions of the constitution “to establish the principles of social justice and equality” among the ethnic and religious constituents of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region to “protect our democratic system.”
Lastly, President Rashid condemned the “aggression” against the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, reaffirming Iraq’s support for a cessation of violence, humanitarian relief, and the Palestinian people's right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent state.
AJ: The Rv , It’s a deliberate decision made by the CBI!!, 27 FEB
AJ
Thank you all for being here.
I’ve made time in my busy schedule to share the truth about the Iraqi dinar because I want you to understand what’s real.
In my 20 years in finance, I’ve never seen anything like this level of brainwashing tied to an investment-like the Dinar Here’s what you need to know: The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is the entity that sets the exchange rate for the Iraqi currency.
The "RV" (revaluation) isn’t some spontaneous event triggered by some event inside of Iraq—that’s just clickbait -and they will always keep the ball moving to a new event lol... But reality is
It’s a deliberate decision made by the CBI, the authority in charge.
Wake up! Don’t act like a kid who didn’t get what they wanted for Christmas just because you fell for the clickbait hype. The truth is, the clickbaiters sold you all lies, not reality.
Keep your eye 
on who really controls the rate - The CBI- not the noise.
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