Tuesday, May 26, 2026

🇮🇶 Iraq at the Center of Transition: Article 140, the HCL, and Their Impact on National Stability 💰🛢️⚖️

CHANNEL8:  On outstanding issues with the federal government—including Article 140, public salaries, the state budget, and farmers' demands, among other matters—KRG PM told Channel8 that the Iraqi officials “all agreed that these issues must be resolved.”


Read more: https://channel8.com/english/news/58574
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🇮🇶 Iraq at the Center of Transition: Article 140, the HCL, and Their Impact on National Stability 💰🛢️⚖️

Iraq continues to face two of its most important long-standing structural issues: Article 140 of the Constitution and the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL). Both are deeply interconnected and essential for understanding the country’s political, economic, and territorial dynamics.

🧭 📜 What is Article 140?

Article 140 is a constitutional mechanism designed to resolve the status of disputed territories between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region, such as:

  • 🛢️ Kirkuk (the most strategic due to its oil reserves)
  • 🏙️ parts of Nineveh
  • 🌾 areas of Diyala

⚙️ Its required process includes:

  • 🧾 Normalization (reversing past demographic changes)
  • 📊 Population census
  • 🗳️ Referendum to determine whether areas belong to Baghdad or the Kurdistan Region

⚠️ Problem: It has never been fully implemented, leaving territorial status unresolved.

🛢️ ⚖️ What is the HCL (Hydrocarbon Law)?

The Hydrocarbon Law aims to define:

  • 🛢️ who controls oil resources
  • 💰 how revenues are distributed
  • 🏛️ fiscal relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region
  • 📑 how oil contracts are signed with international companies

⚠️ Problem: It has still not been fully passed due to political disagreements.

🔗 🧩 The Key Connection Between Article 140 and the HCL

These two issues are directly linked:

  • 🧭 Article 140 defines who controls the land
  • 🛢️ The HCL defines who controls the oil within that land

💥 Key example: Kirkuk

  • If it belongs to Baghdad → Baghdad controls the oil
  • If it belongs to Kurdistan → the KRG controls the resources

👉 Without defining territory (Article 140), a unified oil law (HCL) cannot be finalized.

⚔️ 🧠 Why Haven’t They Been Resolved?

The main obstacles include:

  • 🛢️ Control of oil (centralized vs regional authority)
  • 🧭 Territorial disputes over strategic regions
  • 🏛️ Lack of national political consensus
  • 💰 Heavy reliance on oil (over 90% of state revenue)

👉 Result: a long-standing structural political deadlock.

💰 📉 Impact on the Economy and the Iraqi Dinar

Although the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) operates independently in monetary policy, these issues still influence the broader economic environment:

⚠️ Without resolution:

  • Political uncertainty
  • Reduced foreign investment
  • Budget disputes between Baghdad and the KRG
  • Weak coordination in national economic planning

📈 With resolution:

  • Stronger international confidence
  • Better oil revenue management
  • Improved institutional stability
  • A more solid long-term economic environment

🧠 📌 Conclusion

  • 🧭 Article 140 = determines the future of disputed territories
  • 🛢️ HCL = defines oil control and revenue distribution
  • 🔗 Both are structurally interconnected and remain unresolved
  • 💰 Their resolution would significantly improve Iraq’s economic stability, though they do not directly set the value of the dinar

💬 Comment

It is necessary to complete and approve these laws, because they would provide the economic stability Iraq needs to finally strengthen the Iraqi dinar.🇮🇶💰🛢️⚖️

#Iraq #Article140 #HydrocarbonLaw #HCL #IraqiEconomy #IraqiDinar #OilPolitics #MiddleEast #Kurdistan #Baghdad #EconomicStability

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Monday, May 25, 2026

FRANK26….5-24-26…..A CHANGE OF ATTITUDE

 

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🇮🇶💵 IRAQ CONTINUES TO SEND SIGNALS THAT ITS DINAR REALLY MATTERS 🚀🔥

 🇮🇶💵 IRAQ CONTINUES TO SEND SIGNALS THAT ITS DINAR REALLY MATTERS 🚀🔥

We should not lose sight of these news reports coming out of Iraq, because they say a lot about what truly matters to them today… 👀

When they talk about:


🏦 protecting reserves,
🪙 maintaining monetary cover,
📈 avoiding inflation,
💵 defending the dinar,
and preserving financial stability…


…that clearly tells me they do NOT want their currency falling apart. ❌

They want a STABLE dinar… and ultimately a STRONG dinar. 💪💵

A country that did not believe in its currency:


❌ would not accumulate over $90 BILLION in reserves
❌ would not buy tons of gold
❌ would not care about monetary backing
❌ and would not constantly discuss exchange rate stability

And even though they may not openly say it often… the fact that behind the scenes they are reportedly considering pairing the dinar 1:1 with the USD 💵 tells me they are not satisfied with the current value of their currency either.

🇮🇶 The Iraqi people are proud of their resources, their oil, and their monetary sovereignty.

This is a matter of time, folks… ⏳
Patience. 👏🔥


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THE IRAQI DINAR IS UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND FEARS OF DECLINING MONETARY COVER

Warnings are increasing about the repercussions of the financial crisis on the stability of the Iraqi dinar, with growing talk about the possibility of using part of the cash reserve to cover government expenses.

Economic expert Dr. Safwan Qusay confirmed the possibility of resorting to the cash reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq, given the existence of an amount exceeding $90 billion, while warning at the same time of the occurrence of inflation within Iraq.

(So, like I said in a previous Newsletter they have not yet tied into the reserves to help pay salaries. Those darn salaries (monthly lump sum to Kurdistan for its share of oil revenues).

Qusay said that “the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves amount to $90 billion in addition to 170 tons of gold, and if borrowing from these reserves is relied upon, it is possible to continue with financial flexibility up to $60 billion.”

(The IMF says Iraq has only 5 months and then their reserves are sown to critical levels. This article also tells us the gold is in addition to the cash reserves in US dollars unlike many of these intel gurus are telling you its all included in the $90 billion.)

He added that “the $60 billion represents the value of the issued Iraqi dinar, but the dinar’s value falling below the aforementioned financial cover means allowing inflation to occur domestically.”

He explained that “the possibility of resorting to borrowing from the central bank’s reserves, or the occurrence of the aforementioned inflation, may happen six months after this May, as the government can secure salaries for this period of time.”

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🇮🇶 Iraq’s Emerging Political Alliances Could Support Long-Term Strengthening Of The Iraqi Dinar 💵🚀

🇮🇶 Iraq’s Emerging Political Alliances Could Support Long-Term Strengthening Of The Iraqi Dinar 💵🚀

Yesterday’s Iraqi Football Association election revealed something MUCH bigger than sports.

According to reports, the political alliance built around:

  • Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,
  • Qais al-Khazali,
  • Mohammed al-Halbousi,
  • Bafel Talabani,
  • and Ammar al-Hakim

appears to be expanding its influence beyond parliament and deeper into Iraq’s state-linked institutions.

For the first time:

  • Erbil and Duhok reportedly lost federation representation,
  • while Sulaymaniyah gained influence again.

This reflects a broader political shift happening across Iraq.

The same alliance has already shown growing influence in:


✅ cabinet formation
✅ parliamentary voting
✅ provincial councils
✅ presidential arrangements
✅ institutional leadership positions

At the same time, the report suggests former PM Nouri al-Maliki and allies are gradually losing institutional influence.

Why does this matter for Iraq’s economy and the IQD? 🇮🇶💵

Because major economic transformations like Iraq Vision 2035 require:

  • political coordination,
  • institutional stability,
  • long-term planning,
  • and unified national decision-making.

In my opinion, stronger political alignment could help Iraq:


✅ accelerate economic reforms
✅ modernize institutions
✅ improve financial governance
✅ advance banking reform
✅ expand infrastructure megaprojects
✅ attract foreign investment
✅ strengthen national economic strategy

This becomes especially important as Iraq pushes forward with:

  • de-dollarization efforts,
  • banking modernization,
  • digital payments,
  • Development Road Project,
  • Al-Faw Port,
  • and private sector expansion.

Countries usually cannot strengthen their currency structurally while operating under constant political fragmentation and institutional conflict.

That is why I believe increasing political coordination could become an important part of the larger foundation-building phase currently taking place inside Iraq.

A more unified political environment can create:


📈 greater investor confidence
🏦 stronger institutional control
🌍 better economic execution
💼 long-term stability
💵 and stronger support for the Iraqi dinar

I believe Iraq is entering a phase where:

  • politics,
  • economics,
  • banking reform,
  • and national development

are increasingly aligning toward building a more stable, modern, and globally integrated Iraqi economy under Iraq Vision 2035. 🇮🇶🔥

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Yesterday’s Iraqi Football Association election offered another revealing snapshot of how two emerging alignments are extending beyond parliament and into wider state-linked institutions. The coalition built around Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Qais al-Khazali, Mohammed al-Halbousi, Bafel Talabani, and Ammar al-Hakim, which The National Context reported on more than a month ago, appears to have won this round as well. For the first time, Erbil and Duhok, which backed the other side, lost membership in the federation, while Sulaimani managed to enter it for the first time in a while. This is significant because it shows that Iraq’s new political alignments are not confined to cabinet formation or parliamentary arithmetic. The same pattern has appeared in the election of the Iraqi president, the speakership, ministerial votes, and some provincial council arrangements in places such as Salahuddin and Kirkuk. It is increasingly moving in one direction: sidelining Nouri al-Maliki and those aligned with him, while the Sudani-Khazali-Halbousi-Talabani-Hakim axis expands its reach across institutions. The same contest may now extend further into Diyala, Mosul, and other provincial arenas.


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TIDBITS FROM BRUCE: " We would have rates on bank screens and redemption center screens"

 BRUCE

 I had heard at least a week ago...that they want this done by the end of May. ...I got information... from very good sources ...that says looks like we could get notified any time from Memorial Day to the end of the month, exchange between Memorial Day and the end of the month...
 I do believe this is this is coming right around the corner...

I was told that Wednesday...that we would have rates on bank screens and redemption center screens. We did get confirmation that we have 18 currencies ...currently on redemption center screens, and probably the same amount on bank screens...

Now these are rates that are continually trading up and my instinct is to think that they want to continue to trade these currencies up to where when we go in for our exchanges we'll get better rates than they have right now...I'm not concerned about the rates – 

I know the rates at the redemption centers...and we know that the dinar holders have a contract rate established by President Trump at redemption centers, so we're going to be in great shape..



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🇮🇶 Iraq Is Positioning for a Stronger Currency by 2035 💰

 


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🇮🇶 Why Is Iraq Already Discussing The 2027 Budget While The 2026 Budget Still Hasn’t Been Passed? 💵👀

 🇮🇶 Why Is Iraq Already Discussing The 2027 Budget While The 2026 Budget Still Hasn’t Been Passed? 💵👀

In my personal opinion, one of the most interesting developments happening in Iraq right now is the fact that Iraqi officials are already discussing and preparing the framework for the 2027 budget… while the 2026 budget itself still has not been officially passed.

According to recent reports, Iraqi lawmaker Dilan Ghafoor confirmed that initial drafting work for the 2027 budget law has already begun, while Iraq continues operating under the temporary “1/12 spending framework” to keep salaries and government operations funded. 🇮🇶

🔗 News Source:
https://channel8.com/english/news/58586

This raises a very important question:

❓Why does Iraq appear to be moving ahead toward 2027 while seemingly bypassing a full 2026 budget?

In my personal opinion, it is not illogical to think that the 2026 budget may have originally been calculated taking into account a stronger Iraqi dinar rate than the current one. 💵

And perhaps Iraq has still not fully completed all the banking, financial, economic, and structural reforms necessary to sustain that type of larger economic framework yet.

That could explain why we are seeing Iraq aggressively accelerating:


✅ banking modernization
✅ de-dollarization
✅ digital payment systems
✅ infrastructure megaprojects
✅ financial governance reforms
✅ private sector expansion
✅ economic diversification
✅ and Iraq Vision 2035 initiatives

…while at the same time still being unable to officially pass the full 2026 budget framework.

Personally, I find it very interesting that Iraq is simultaneously:

  • restructuring its economy,
  • modernizing its banking system,
  • strengthening financial controls,
  • reducing dollar dependency,
  • and planning long-term fiscal transformation,

while already shifting focus toward the 2027 budget structure.

After all, exchange rates impact:


📊 government budgets
📊 salaries
📊 imports
📊 reserves
📊 contracts
📊 public spending
📊 and foreign investment flows

That is why I believe Iraq may currently be in the middle of a much broader economic and monetary transition under Iraq Vision 2035. 🇮🇶🚀

I am not saying this confirms any immediate rate change.

But I do believe Iraq is clearly building the foundations for a more modern, stable, and internationally integrated economic system — one that could eventually support a stronger and more functional Iraqi dinar in the future.


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🇮🇶⚖️ Iraq Strengthens State Authority and Expands Anti-Corruption Efforts

  During a meeting with tribal sheikhs and dignitaries, al-Zaidi emphasized the need to "combat the scourge of corruption that threaten...