Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Mounting financial pressures threaten the 2026 budget
Mounting financial pressures threaten the 2026 budget
The government faces an early challenge in preparing the 2026 budget, amid declining oil revenues and escalating financial pressures, which puts it in front of limited options between presenting an austerity budget or temporarily continuing spending according to the 1/12 rule. Meanwhile, economic experts and specialists believe that the 2026 budget will face major financial challenges due to declining revenues, which may push it to reduce spending or postpone its approval.
Budget preparation
Nermin Maarouf, a member of the Finance Committee in the previous parliamentary session, confirmed in an interview with Al-Sabah that the government, if formed soon, still has time to submit the draft budget law, noting that its approval in previous years was often delayed until May or June.
She added that the preparation of the budget in Iraq traditionally relies on simple items based on the allocations of the previous year, but she pointed out that there is no legal basis that allows for continued spending according to the (1/12) rule for two consecutive years in the absence of a budget.
Compound impact
For his part, crisis management expert Ali Al-Fariji believes that the 2026 budget is no longer just a matter of timing, but a test of the state’s ability to deal with a “compound shock” that includes a decline in oil revenues and export disruptions as a result of regional tensions, in addition to the continued rise in operational spending within an economy that is almost entirely dependent on oil.
Al-Fariji explained in an interview with “Al-Sabah” that preparing a budget in the near term seems unlikely, due to the absence of stable assumptions related to oil prices and export levels, which suggests that the (1/12) rule will continue to be used temporarily until the financial vision becomes clear.
Dependence on oil
He added that the main challenges are structural in nature, most notably the dependence of revenues on oil by nearly 90%, the high operating expenses which account for more than 70% of total spending, as well as cash pressures and weak efficiency of investment spending.
Oil revenues
In the same context, economist Jalil Al-Lami confirmed in an interview with Al-Sabah that the option of submitting a full federal budget seems difficult in the short term, suggesting that the (1/12) rule will continue to be used temporarily, especially with the clear decline in oil revenues.
Al-Lami pointed out that Iraq used to rely on oil exports of around 3.5 million barrels per day with monthly revenues ranging between 7 and 9 billion dollars, before they decreased to about 2 billion dollars or less at some times, while the country needs at least 8 to 10 billion dollars per month to cover operating expenses, creating a financial gap that may reach 6 billion dollars per month.
Austerity budget
Al-Lami predicted that if the budget is prepared, it will be an austerity budget, based on an oil price between $60 and $65 per barrel, with a total size between 130 and 150 trillion dinars, and an expected deficit between 20 and 30 trillion dinars, which is subject to increase depending on
Regarding developments in the oil market.
He added that the anticipated budget will not include an expansion in appointments or the launch of new projects, but will focus on completing existing projects and securing basic expenditures, with the possibility of resorting to internal borrowing or drawing from the cash reserve in the event that the crisis continues.
Temporary disbursement
He pointed out that “estimates indicate that the 2026 budget will either be a deferred budget managed through temporary spending, or an austerity budget focused on containing the crisis, at a time when the Iraqi economy is facing a real test to readjust the spending model and avoid slipping.”
Geopolitical investment analysis
Towards a liquidity crisis in the near term.
The parliamentary finance committee expressed its position on borrowing from the central bank to finance domestic expenditures, noting that this issue is linked to the formation of the government.
Borrowing proposal
Committee member Ribwar Karim told the Iraqi News Agency, as reported by Al-Sabah newspaper, that "the proposal to borrow from the Central Bank to finance domestic expenditures is on hold."
On forming the government.
He added that "there is a conviction among the political parties and blocs that there are serious attempts to appoint the next prime minister As soon as possible.
He explained that “if a government is formed, there will be no need to borrow, as a fully empowered government will begin its duties,” noting that “borrowing from the Central Bank is merely an opinion put forward by some members of parliament.”
He stated that “this proposal is primarily linked to the formation of the government, and if that happens, there will be no need for this proposal.” link
🇮🇶 Iraq’s Financial Reforms, Security Stability & The Path Toward Monetary Change
Paulette
Alaq has done a great job trying to keep the Market rate from exploding and reducing overall corruption. Did you see the articles talking about the reduction in dollar sales. This is clear indication that the (deep state) money laundering through Iraq into Iran and the (deep state) proxy armies has been minimized.
Now the next step is getting the (deep state) armed factions under control of the government and/or eliminated. Sistani and now Sadr [Iraq's religious leaders] are in total agreement ...Do you really think Trump would have allowed Iraq to RD/RV---->RI until all this is cleaned up?? I think Alaq has the Delete the Zeros program ready to unleash when Trump says GO...
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🇮🇶 Iraq’s Financial Reforms, Security Stability & The Path Toward Monetary Change
Many observers believe that recent actions by Iraq’s leadership and the Central Bank signal a serious effort to stabilize the economy, reduce corruption, and prepare the nation for a stronger financial future.
One of the most discussed developments has been the noticeable reduction in U.S. dollar sales through Iraqi banking channels. Supporters of reform see this as evidence that authorities are tightening oversight and limiting illicit financial flows that for years allegedly fueled corruption, smuggling, and regional proxy activities.
💵 Reduction in Dollar Sales = Greater Financial Control?
Recent banking reforms and stricter oversight measures are viewed by many investors as an attempt to:
- 🏦 Strengthen the integrity of Iraq’s banking system
- 🚫 Reduce money laundering activities
- 📉 Limit black-market currency manipulation
- 🌍 Improve compliance with international financial standards
- 🤝 Build credibility with global institutions and investors
From this perspective, maintaining stability in the market exchange rate has been one of Governor Ali Al-Alaq’s key objectives.
⚖️ Security & Political Stability Still Matter
Many analysts also argue that major monetary reforms cannot fully succeed without stronger national security and unified government authority.
Supporters of this view point to:
- 🇮🇶 Efforts to bring armed factions under tighter state control
- 🕊️ Calls for national unity from influential Iraqi religious leaders
- 📊 The importance of internal stability before large-scale economic transitions can occur
The argument is simple: no country can sustain major currency reform while facing uncontrolled corruption, instability, or parallel power structures.
🔑 The “Delete the Zeros” Debate
A major topic within the IQD community is the long-discussed “Delete the Zeros” monetary reform plan. Many believe the infrastructure for this project may already exist within Iraq’s financial system.
However, it’s important to understand:
- 🧾 “Deleting the zeros” does not automatically create instant wealth
- 💱 It is typically a redenomination process used to simplify transactions and restore confidence in a currency
- 📈 Any future increase in real purchasing power would depend on Iraq’s broader economic growth and monetary strength over time
Some investors believe Iraq is positioning itself for larger reforms once regional and political conditions fully stabilize.
🇺🇸 International Influence & Global Timing
There is also widespread speculation among investors that major global powers—including the United States—would want Iraq fully compliant, secure, and financially transparent before supporting any major monetary transition.
Whether or not one agrees with every theory circulating online, most serious analysts would agree on one point:
👉 Large-scale currency reform requires:
- economic stability,
- banking transparency,
- security control,
- and international confidence.
💬 Final Thought
For many IQD investors, the recent reforms are viewed as signs that Iraq is moving step-by-step toward a more stable and internationally integrated economy. The belief is not necessarily about an overnight event—but about a long-term transformation that could eventually support a stronger national currency.
Patience, realism, and understanding the difference between speculation and confirmed policy remain essential.
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#IQD #IraqiDinar #IraqEconomy #CentralBankOfIraq #AliAlaq #DeleteTheZeros #MonetaryReform #CurrencyWatch #ForexCommunity #EconomicReform #FinancialFreedom #GlobalMarkets #IraqNews #DinarInvestors
The Securities Commission grants the first license to a foreign brokerage firm to operate in Iraq
The Securities Commission grants the first license to a foreign brokerage firm to operate in Iraq
On Sunday, the Securities Authority announced that it had granted official approval to a foreign brokerage firm to operate in the securities markets, making it the first company to receive this approval in accordance with the modern regulatory procedures adopted by the Authority.
The commission confirmed in a statement that this step comes within its ongoing efforts to regulate and develop the work environment in the Iraqi financial market and enhance transparency and efficiency in line with best international practices, and in a way that contributes to supporting investment, stimulating trading activity and attracting global expertise to the market.
She explained that the approval was granted after the company completed all the technical and regulatory requirements, ensuring the integrity of the procedures and protecting the rights of investors, as well as raising the level of institutional performance of brokerage companies operating in the market.
color: #1b1b1b; max-width: 100%;">The statement affirmed that this approval is an important indicator of the Authority’s direction towards opening new horizons for brokerage companies, especially foreign ones, and encouraging the entry of new companies that contribute to the development of the Iraqi capital market and enhance investor confidence in it, which represents one of the Authority’s main objectives in regulating, protecting and developing the market. link
📊 Understanding the Iraqi Dinar: Why “1 IQD = $1” Is Not an Overnight Reality
Sandy Ingram
I know many IQD investors...are thinking and saying over and over $1 to 1 dinar.
People who understand international currency laugh at us because it's just not economically possible. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it does mean there are some steps in-between that we need to acknowledge as intelligent IQD investors...
I'm not trying to burst your bubble...What I'm saying to you is there is some things that must happen before the 1 to 1 could or will happen.
I'm not trying to say the Iraqi dinar will not value at $1 to 1 IQD because it very well could in the future but not now and not in the beginning...It has to go through baby steps.
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📊 Understanding the Iraqi Dinar: Why “1 IQD = $1” Is Not an Overnight Reality
Many IQD investors repeat the idea of a 1-to-1 exchange rate (1 IQD = $1 USD) with strong conviction.
However, when we step back and look at how international currency systems actually work, it becomes clear why experienced economists often view this expectation as highly unlikely in the short term.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible in the long run—but it does mean there are real-world economic steps and conditions that must happen first.
🌍 Reality of Currency Revaluation
International currencies don’t jump suddenly from low value to parity without major structural changes. For the Iraqi dinar to approach a strong valuation, several foundational elements typically need to improve:
- 📈 Stable and diversified economy (beyond oil dependency)
- 🏦 Strong, independent central banking system
- 💱 Controlled inflation and monetary stability
- 🌐 Global trade confidence and foreign investment flow
- 🧾 Consistent fiscal and political stability
Without these, a sudden 1:1 valuation would create extreme economic imbalance.
🪜 “Baby Steps” Matter More Than Big Expectations
Rather than expecting an instant jump, currency development—especially in post-conflict or rebuilding economies—usually happens in gradual stages:
- 📊 Stabilization of internal financial systems
- 💵 Controlled adjustments in exchange rates
- 🌐 Increased integration into global markets
- 📉 Reduction of inflationary pressure
- 🏦 Long-term monetary reforms
Each step builds trust and economic credibility before any major revaluation could even be considered.
🧠 A More Realistic Investor Mindset
Being an intelligent IQD investor doesn’t mean dismissing long-term potential—it means understanding timing and conditions.
It’s reasonable to believe:
- The Iraqi dinar could strengthen in the future
- Significant reforms may improve its value over time
- But expecting instant 1:1 parity today or in early stages is not aligned with economic reality
💬 Final Thought
Hope and optimism are part of investing—but they should be balanced with patience and understanding of how global economics actually work. The path, if it happens, is more likely to be gradual, structured, and conditional, not sudden or explosive.
#Hashtags
#IQD #IraqiDinar #CurrencyRevaluation #ForexEducation #EconomicReality #InvestingWisdom #FinancialLiteracy #GlobalEconomy #DinarDiscussion #MacroEconomics #WealthMindset #PatiencePays
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