Thursday, March 5, 2026
A THREE-MEMBER COUNCIL WILL RUN THINGS AFTER KHAMENEI… THESE ARE ITS MEMBERS
A THREE-MEMBER COUNCIL WILL RUN THINGS AFTER KHAMENEI… THESE ARE ITS MEMBERS.
The Iranian news agency IRNA announced on Sunday that a three-member council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council will temporarily assume leadership duties in Iran.
Three Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, will oversee the transition in Iran following the death of the Supreme Leader, according to Mohammad Mokhbar, an advisor to Ali Khamenei, as reported by state television on Sunday.
An informant said the trio would include Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and a lawyer from the Guardian Council. The agency confirmed the deaths of Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Defense Council, and Major General Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in the US-Israeli attack on Tehran on Saturday.
Israel had previously announced that Shamkhani and Pakpour were killed in the same strikes on Saturday morning. Iranian state media announced that Major General Ahmad Vahidi, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, had taken over command of the Guard’s forces, following the assassination of Major General Mohammad Pakpour.
In a related context, CBS News quoted an intelligence source and a military source as saying that about 40 Iranian officials were killed in these attacks.
It was unclear whether they were gathered at one location, or targeted at several different locations.
MARKZ: Iraq HCL Law Update: Government Formation, Sudani, and What It Could Mean for the Iraqi Dinar
New commentary from dinar analyst MarkZ suggests that Iraq may be moving closer to completing key political and economic milestones that could influence the country’s long-awaited monetary reform.
According to MarkZ, the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL)—a crucial piece of legislation governing Iraq’s oil revenues—may already be prepared and waiting for final approval once Iraq’s leadership structure is fully seated.
These developments involve the future of Iraq’s government, the role of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani, and broader reforms tied to economic stability.
What Is the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL)?
The Hydrocarbon Law of Iraq, often called the HCL, is one of the most important pieces of legislation for Iraq’s economy.
It aims to:
Define how oil revenues are distributed across Iraq
Establish revenue-sharing between the federal government and regions
Clarify authority over oil exploration and production
Ensure transparency in oil income distribution
Since Iraq holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, passing the HCL is widely considered essential for long-term economic stability.
Rumors Suggest the HCL May Already Be Prepared
During a recent discussion, MarkZ commented on rumors circulating within political and financial circles.
According to him:
The HCL may already be drafted and agreed upon behind the scenes
Iraqi leaders could be waiting for the final government structure
Once leadership is formally seated, the law could be quickly approved
This type of strategy—preparing legislation quietly before official announcements—is not uncommon in Iraqi politics.
If true, it could allow the government to move quickly once the final leadership positions are confirmed.
Government Formation: A Key Missing Piece
One of the biggest factors affecting Iraq’s economic reforms has been the completion of its government structure.
According to MarkZ, there is now increasing pressure to finalize the government , especially due to regional tensions involving Iran.
Political stability is essential because major economic reforms—including the HCL—generally require:
A seated Prime Minister
A confirmed President
A functioning parliament
Once those positions are finalized, legislation can move forward more rapidly.
Sudani as Prime Minister: What to Watch
MarkZ believes that Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani could soon be officially confirmed or reaffirmed as Prime Minister.
If this announcement occurs, several important developments may follow:
Completion of the government cabinet
Passage of delayed economic laws
Implementation of energy revenue reforms
Increased political stability
These steps could significantly strengthen Iraq’s economic environment.
Why the HCL Matters for Iraq’s Economy
The Hydrocarbon Law of Iraq is often considered a cornerstone of Iraq’s long-term economic framework.
Passing the law would help:
Stabilize revenue sharing between Baghdad and regional governments
Encourage international energy investment
Increase transparency in oil revenues
Provide consistent funding for national development
Many analysts believe the law could also help improve investor confidence in Iraq’s financial system.
Regional Tensions Are Accelerating Political Decisions
MarkZ also pointed out that events involving Iran may be increasing urgency within Iraq’s political leadership.
Regional instability often pushes governments to finalize internal political arrangements more quickly in order to maintain stability.
For Iraq, this could mean:
Faster government formation
Accelerated legislative decisions
Stronger economic coordination
These developments may explain why observers are watching for announcements at any moment.
Featured Snippets (Quick Answers)
What is Iraq’s Hydrocarbon Law (HCL)?
The Hydrocarbon Law is proposed legislation that determines how Iraq’s oil revenues are distributed between the federal government, regional governments, and citizens.
Why is the HCL important?
It provides a legal framework for managing oil resources, attracting investment, and ensuring fair revenue sharing across Iraq.
Is the HCL already passed?
According to rumors mentioned by MarkZ, the law may already be prepared behind the scenes but could be waiting for final government formation before official approval.
Who is Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani?
He is the current Prime Minister of Iraq and a key political figure overseeing economic and governmental reforms.
Q&A: Iraq Government and Economic Reform
Q: Why does Iraq need to complete its government?
A full government structure is necessary to pass major legislation, implement reforms, and maintain political stability.
Q: Could the HCL impact Iraq’s economy?
Yes. The law would regulate oil revenue distribution and potentially increase investment in Iraq’s energy sector.
Q: Why are analysts watching the Prime Minister announcement?
Because confirmation of leadership could unlock stalled legislation and economic reforms.
Q: Does the HCL affect the Iraqi dinar?
Indirectly. Economic stability and oil revenue management can strengthen the financial system, which may influence currency policy over time.
Final Thoughts
The coming days could be significant for Iraq’s political and economic future.
If the government formation is finalized and the Hydrocarbon Law is approved, Iraq may gain stronger financial stability and improved investor confidence.
While rumors remain unconfirmed, analysts like MarkZ believe the pieces may already be in place—waiting only for the final political approvals.
Observers around the world will be watching closely for announcements from Baghdad.
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MarkZ
[via PDK] Comment: Rumor is the Iraq HCL is already signed. MarkZ: I have heard HCL is one of the things they have been doing quietly behind the scenes. Preparing everything so that as soon as they seat a Prime Minister and President…they can stamp it and it is done.
With what is going on with Iran – it looks like there is a major push to settle the Iraq government this week…finally. I would not be surprised that right now…it has finally been decided and we will soon see Sudani as the Prime Minister. I am watching for that announcement to come out of Iraq at any moment. They need to finish the government and pass HCL to have more stability.
GASOLINE AND DOLLAR QUEUES ARE THE FIRST SIGNS… IS IRAQ ENTERING A TUNNEL OF ECONOMIC TURMOIL?
GASOLINE AND DOLLAR QUEUES ARE THE FIRST SIGNS… IS IRAQ ENTERING A TUNNEL OF ECONOMIC TURMOIL?
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, has quickly cast a shadow over the overall situation in Iraq, particularly the economic aspect. Concerns related to energy markets and supply chains have resurfaced, with growing anxiety about the impact of any escalation of the conflict on oil exports, shipping routes, and the stability of the domestic market in a country almost entirely dependent on imports.
The exchange rate of the dollar has also seen a significant increase in Baghdad’s Al-Kifah Street market, exceeding 160,000 dinars per 100 dollars, alongside a sharp rise in the prices of both foreign and Iraqi gold in the markets of Baghdad and Erbil. In a tangible indication of the “shock” spreading domestically, Iraqi cities witnessed signs of a fuel crisis. For example, the city of Fallujah in Anbar province saw long queues at gas stations, revealing the public’s sensitivity to any development that might be perceived as a direct threat to supply chains or transportation between provinces.
The government
, for its part, attempted to offer reassurances to alleviate the confusion.
The Ministry of Trade affirmed that the food situation in Iraq is “stable and under control,” and that there are no indications of concern regarding the availability of food in the markets following the Israeli-American attack on Iran.
Ministry of Trade spokesman Mohammed Hanoun stated that “the government has given great attention to the food security file in anticipation of emergency circumstances, and has worked during the past period to strengthen the strategic reserves of basic commodities, especially wheat, in addition to ration card items such as rice, sugar, and oil.” He emphasized that “the stock is good and sufficient to meet citizens’ needs within a plan aimed at ensuring continued supply and market stability, with daily monitoring of market activity to prevent exploitation and price hikes.”
Economically, “energy sensitivity” appears to be the most prominent issue. Iraq may theoretically benefit from higher oil prices, but at the same time, it faces the risks of disruptions to export routes, shipping, and insurance, along with the accompanying pressure on internal stability and prices, especially if the war escalates to a stage where economic infrastructure or maritime routes are targeted.
What about the Strait of Hormuz?
Economist Safwan Qusay warns Al-Mada that “expanding the scope of the war in the Middle East to include economic targets and closing the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a rise in global oil prices, forcing Baghdad to confront the challenge of managing risks, not merely monitoring figures.”
Qusay believes that “Iraq needs options to mitigate the potential shock, including reaching an understanding with Saudi Arabia on arrangements to secure supplies in case some routes are disrupted, or relying on the reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq to ensure the financing of public spending for a period that may exceed six months if the crisis enters a phase of severe pressure.” Qusay goes further, discussing logistical alternatives, such as “expanding export routes towards Turkey by utilizing the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and its capacity, with the possibility of boosting exports by truck to Jordan, Kuwait, or Turkey, depending on developments in the security and trade situation.”
Warnings of a more dangerous scenario .
In this context, political analyst Mohammed Naanaa told Al-Mada that “Iraq must prepare for the repercussions and consequences of a war with Iran, especially if the war escalates or the Iranian regime loses control of the internal situation.” He warned that the most dangerous scenario is the possibility of the war leading to widespread internal disintegration, which could open the door to large waves of displacement towards the Iraqi border.
Naanaa stressed the necessity of “taking all necessary precautions to confront potential challenges and threats, including administrative and security preparedness and the management of resources and services in the provinces near the front lines.”
According to field observations, Iraqi markets remain in a phase of “anticipation and questioning” rather than an actual crisis. However, observers note that this phase could change rapidly if the war continues and expands, especially given the sensitivity of consumer sentiment towards fuel and basic commodities, and the potential for rumors to ignite excessive buying that would disrupt the market even if stocks are stable.
WALKINGSTICK& MILITIAMAN: CBI REER Adjustment, Government Formation & Dinar Outlook
Iraq Monetary Reform Update: What the Latest Insights from Walkingstick and Militia Man Could Mean for the Iraqi Dinar
Recent discussions among dinar analysts suggest that Iraq may be approaching an important stage in its monetary reform process. According to insights shared by Walkingstick and Militia Man, several geopolitical and financial factors could be aligning to support the next phase of Iraq’s currency reform.
These developments involve the role of the Central Bank of Iraq, government formation timelines, black market currency controls, and the possibility of a REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) adjustment.
Below is a detailed breakdown of what these updates could mean for Iraq’s economy and the Iraqi dinar.
Strategic Context: U.S. Treasury and Economic Planning in Iraq
According to commentary from Walkingstick, discussions involving the United States Department of the Treasuryreportedly took place in Iraq during a period of heightened geopolitical activity involving Iran.
The discussions reportedly focused on:
Rebuilding Iraq’s economic framework
Addressing black market currency activity
Strengthening financial oversight
Reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar
For years, Iraq has struggled with a parallel currency market, where the dinar trades differently from the official rate set by the Central Bank. Controlling this gap has been a major priority for monetary reform.
Walkingstick suggests that the U.S. does not want Iraq’s economy heavily reliant on the dollar, which aligns with broader reforms aimed at strengthening the Iraqi dinar as a sovereign currency.
The Four-to-Five Week Window: Government Formation and Reform Progress
Another key point raised in the discussion is a four-to-five week period during which major developments could occur.
This window may include:
Formation or stabilization of Iraq’s government
Continued economic reforms
Progress toward currency stability
Further reduction of black market influence
Political stability has always been a critical prerequisite for monetary reform in Iraq. The formation of a functioning government could help accelerate economic decisions and policy implementation.
The Central Bank of Iraq and the Potential REER Adjustment
According to Militia Man, the Central Bank of Iraq may be positioned to proceed with a managed REER adjustment.
What Is REER?
The Real Effective Exchange Rate measures a country’s currency value relative to a basket of other currencies, adjusted for inflation.
A REER adjustment can indicate that a country is:
Aligning its currency with real economic performance
Increasing international competitiveness
Preparing for broader financial integration
Militia Man believes the CBI does not need to wait for the entire banking sector consolidation to be completedbefore adjusting the exchange rate.
Banking Sector Reform Is Progressing in Parallel
Iraq’s banking system has undergone significant reforms in recent years.
These include:
Compliance with international banking standards
Anti-money laundering regulations
Bank mergers and restructuring
Improved digital payment systems
Militia Man notes that bank consolidation and compliance improvements are ongoing processes, not requirements that must be completely finished before monetary reform moves forward.
This means the Central Bank could theoretically move ahead with exchange rate adjustments while the banking sector continues strengthening in parallel.
Why Black Market Currency Control Matters
A major obstacle to Iraq’s monetary reform has been the parallel or black market exchange rate.
The government and the Central Bank of Iraq have been implementing policies to reduce this gap, such as:
Regulating foreign currency auctions
Digitizing international transfers
Enforcing compliance among banks
Limiting illegal dollar transactions
If the black market rate stabilizes closer to the official rate, it becomes easier for Iraq to consider adjustments to its currency value.
Is Iraq Ready for the Next Phase?
According to Militia Man, Iraq may be “ready now or very close” for the next stage of monetary reform.
Indicators supporting this view include:
Increasing financial compliance
Banking sector modernization
Government reforms
Reduced currency volatility
Stronger oil revenue backing
While no official announcement has been made, analysts believe the foundations for a currency adjustment are being established.
Featured Snippets (Quick Answers)
What is Iraq’s monetary reform?
Iraq’s monetary reform is a long-term effort by the Central Bank of Iraq to modernize the financial system, stabilize the dinar, reduce black market currency trading, and integrate Iraq into the global financial system.
What is a REER adjustment?
A Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) adjustment reflects changes in a currency’s value relative to other global currencies while accounting for inflation and trade competitiveness.
Can Iraq change the exchange rate before banking reforms are finished?
Some analysts believe the Central Bank of Iraq can proceed with exchange rate adjustments while banking reforms continue, as long as the core financial system remains stable and compliant.
Q&A: Iraqi Dinar and Monetary Reform
Q: Is the Iraqi dinar about to revalue?
There has been no official confirmation of a revaluation. However, analysts believe Iraq may be approaching a new phase in monetary reform that could involve exchange rate adjustments.
Q: Why is the black market exchange rate important?
The black market rate reflects real supply and demand for currency. Reducing the gap between the official and market rates is critical for currency stability.
Q: What role does the Central Bank of Iraq play?
The Central Bank controls monetary policy, manages exchange rates, regulates banks, and oversees financial stability within Iraq.
Q: Why is government formation important for monetary reform?
Political stability allows economic policies to be implemented effectively and increases investor confidence in Iraq’s financial system.
Final Thoughts
The latest commentary from Walkingstick and Militia Man suggests that Iraq may be nearing an important milestone in its monetary reform journey.
With banking reforms continuing, black market controls tightening, and the Central Bank maintaining oversight, Iraq could be positioning itself for the next stage of financial transformation.
As always, developments should be monitored carefully, as official policy decisions will ultimately determine the timing and scope of any monetary changes.
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Walkingstick
When we went into Iran, the US Treasury was in Iraq and in deep meetings on how to rebuild Iraq while they bomb Iran. They are talking also about the black market issues.
The United States does not want them to use the dollar...In these four to five week campaign...it is that time period where the government will be formed and the monetary reform will hopefully continue...
Militia Man
The CBI can and likely will proceed with a managed REER adjustment independent of the banking sector's final consolidation. As long as the core system is stable and compliant, which it increasingly is, mergers and compliance are ongoing, not prerequisites that must be 100% complete...Iraq is ready now or very close for the next phase. The CBI can move on a REER when prudent while the sector continues to consolidate in parallel.
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