WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON FRIDAY?”… IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER RESPONDS TO NEWS OF US SANCTIONS TOMORROW
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein denied that Iraq had received any warning from the United States about imposing sanctions on Friday against government figures or institutions, commenting on a rumor spread by figures and some media outlets, which spoke of an “American message giving Baghdad the choice between forming a government far from Iran before Friday or starting to launch a package of sanctions.”
Minister Hussein said in an interview with journalist Ghazwan Jassim, which was followed by 964 Network, that Baghdad had not received anything of the sort, and downplayed the importance of those rumors and asked, “What will happen on Friday?”.. But he pointed out that issuing sanctions is part of the policies of countries in general, but without specifying what is related to the Friday deadline that is being circulated.
Two well-known currency commentators, Jeff and Militia Man, recently shared perspectives suggesting Iraq may be approaching a significant monetary shift.
Jeff emphasizes caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, while Militia Man argues that Iraq’s banking integration and compliance reforms indicate readiness for the next phase — potentially involving a Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER).
The CBI is actively pushing compliance and restructuring.
Mergers and regulatory cleanup are final preparation steps.
Iraq may be ready (or very close) for the next monetary phase.
That phase could involve movement toward a REER.
What Is REER?
REER stands for Real Effective Exchange Rate.
It measures:
A country’s currency value
Adjusted for inflation
Weighted against major trading partners
A shift toward a “real effective” valuation suggests alignment with:
Trade competitiveness
Inflation balance
Regional currency positioning
If Iraq were to move toward a REER-based valuation, it would signal:
Greater integration into global financial systems
Confidence in internal banking strength
Stable macroeconomic conditions
The Banking Reform Push: Cleanup or Delay?
Militia Man describes the restructuring process as “final cleanup,” not a delay.
Recent years have seen:
Anti-money laundering compliance measures
Electronic payment system upgrades
Stronger regulatory oversight
Bank capitalization requirements
Currency auction reforms
The CBI has been working to modernize Iraq’s banking sector to meet international standards.
Strengthened banks are essential before:
Adjusting exchange mechanisms
Increasing foreign investment
Integrating with global financial markets
Are the Banks Ready?
Militia Man believes:
✔ Enough banks are compliant ✔ Capital standards are improving ✔ The infrastructure supports integration ✔ The “stage has been set”
Banking strength is critical because exchange rate adjustments require:
Liquidity management
Foreign reserve backing
International settlement capability
Anti-corruption safeguards
Without strong banks, a rate shift could destabilize the system.
The Geopolitical Variable
Jeff’s caution remains relevant.
Tensions between the United States and Iran can influence:
Energy markets
Regional security
Investor sentiment
Sanctions enforcement
Because Iraq maintains economic ties across multiple regional powers, sudden escalation could delay policy moves.
Central banks prioritize stability over speed.
Featured Snippet Section
Is Iraq About to Change Its Exchange Rate?
Some analysts believe Iraq may be close to a rate adjustment due to banking reforms and compliance improvements led by the Central Bank of Iraq. However, geopolitical tensions and regional instability could influence timing, making the situation fluid.
Key Differences in Perspective
Jeff
Militia Man
Timing uncertain
Structural readiness emphasized
Geopolitics may delay
Cleanup seen as final preparation
Weeks or months possible
Banking system ready for next phase
Caution advised
Data seen as solid
Both agree on one thing:
Significant structural changes have taken place.
The debate centers on when — not if — the next phase arrives.
Q&A Section
Q: What is the role of the Central Bank of Iraq?
The CBI manages Iraq’s monetary policy, foreign reserves, exchange rate framework, and banking supervision.
Q: What is a REER?
The Real Effective Exchange Rate measures a currency’s value relative to trading partners, adjusted for inflation.
Q: Could U.S.–Iran tensions delay a rate change?
Yes. Geopolitical instability often leads central banks to delay major monetary adjustments.
Q: Is banking reform necessary before a rate change?
Yes. Strong, compliant banks are essential to manage liquidity, reserves, and international transactions.
Q: Are we guaranteed a rate change soon?
No official announcement has confirmed timing. Observers remain divided on how close it may be.
Jeff We're not far away from the rate change right now guys. It could be anywhere from a short period of time to maybe just a month or two out...Nobody knows...There's so many things happening geopolitically that it's kind of fluid. We don't know if the war or the interactions between the United States and Iran is a factor in this. It could be...We have to play it safe and see what happens.
Militia Man
My view if accurate, which I believe it is — there are enough banks (and the CBI is actively strengthening them) to support integration. The restructuring/merger/compliance push is the final cleanup, not a delay. Iraq is ready now (or very close) for the next phase — the CBI can move on REER when prudent... This next phase is one we’ve been watching for many year…I think that’s going to include a real effective exchange rate…I think the stage has been set. I think the data we have is quite solid…
A final American message regarding the premiership… Trump’s envoy will meet with Maliki tomorrow.
(Mnt Goat: Think of this as the final shot over the proverbial bow for Iraq. Yes, the ship is sinking fast unless they back out of this ridiculous situation, they have gotten themselves into with Maliki and the PMF. More than ever Iraq can not become a proxy state for Iran.)
reported today that the US administration sent an official letter to Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, reflecting Washington’s position on his candidacy for the position of Prime Minister, in the context of ongoing developments regarding the formation of the next government in Iraq.
Diplomats told Al-Oula in private statements that Tom Barrack is scheduled to meet with Maliki in the coming hours to inform him of Trump’s position on his nomination.
The United States, under the Trump administration, had previously expressed reservations about Maliki’s return to power, amid economic hints of fluctuating bilateral relations between Baghdad and Washington.
The meetings center on stability, bilateral relations, and Iraq’s evolving political landscape.
Let’s examine what this means.
After Maliki, Barrack Meets Sudani: Stability at the Center
According to reports, outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met with U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack to discuss:
Bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States
Regional security developments
Iraq’s role in stabilizing the Middle East
Strategic cooperation moving forward
Barrack reportedly conveyed President Trump’s perspective on the region and emphasized Iraq’s “pivotal role” in promoting stability and regional development.
Why This Matters
Iraq remains strategically positioned between regional powers and ongoing geopolitical tensions. U.S.–Iraq dialogue often focuses on:
Counterterrorism cooperation
Energy development
Political stability
Regional security frameworks
When Washington signals strong diplomatic engagement, it typically reflects broader strategic alignment.
Maliki’s Position: No Withdrawal
Another key detail from the reporting is that Nouri al-Maliki informed the coordinating framework that he does notintend to withdraw his nomination.
This signals:
Continued internal political competition
Ongoing negotiations within Iraq’s governing framework
A potentially prolonged formation process
Political continuity and clarity are critical factors for economic reform and foreign investment confidence.
Trump Praises Barrack’s Role in Iraq
In a second article, President Donald Trump publicly praised Tom Barrack’s performance in Iraq, stating that he is “doing a good job.”
This praise coincided with Barrack’s second visit to Baghdad within a week, where he met multiple Iraqi officials.
Stability in Baghdad often influences broader Middle Eastern dynamics.
Featured Snippet Section
Why Is Tom Barrack Meeting Iraqi Leaders?
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack is meeting Iraqi leaders to strengthen bilateral relations, discuss regional security, and reinforce Iraq’s role in promoting stability. President Donald Trump has publicly praised Barrack’s diplomatic efforts during these engagements.
Political Implications Moving Forward
Key signals to watch:
✔ Will Maliki maintain his candidacy? ✔ How quickly will Iraq finalize leadership decisions? ✔ Will U.S.–Iraq coordination deepen? ✔ How will regional tensions influence internal Iraqi politics?
Government formation and diplomatic alignment often influence economic momentum and international confidence.
Q&A Section
Q: Why did Tom Barrack meet both Sudani and Maliki?
To engage multiple power centers within Iraq’s political structure and reinforce U.S. strategic interests.
Q: What is President Trump’s position?
He publicly praised Barrack’s role and appears supportive of active diplomatic engagement in Iraq.
Q: Is Sudani still in office?
He is described as outgoing Prime Minister amid political restructuring discussions.
Q: What does Maliki’s refusal to withdraw mean?
It suggests continued political negotiations and possible competition within Iraq’s coordinating framework.
Q: Why are these meetings important internationally?
Iraq plays a pivotal role in regional security, energy markets, and geopolitical balance.
Key Takeaways
High-level U.S.–Iraq discussions are intensifying
Stability and regional development are central themes
Maliki remains firm in his nomination
President Trump has publicly praised his envoy’s efforts
Iraq’s political direction remains a key regional factor
As Baghdad navigates leadership decisions, diplomatic engagement appears active and ongoing.
Article: "After Maliki, Barak meets with Sudani and talks about stability in Iraq"
Quote: "On Friday, outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani discussed with US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States...Tom Barrack, who conveyed the viewpoint of US President Donald Trump, and his vision of the current situation in the region, and Iraq’s pivotal role in building stability and promoting regional development...Al- Maliki informed the framework that he does not intend to withdraw his nomination at all...”
Article: "Trump praises Barack's role: He's doing a good job in Iraq"
Quote: "On Friday, US President Donald Trump praised the performance of his special envoy, Tom Barrack, in Iraq, coinciding with a series of meetings the US envoy held with a number of officials in the capital, Baghdad, during his second visit in a week...This meeting came after the US envoy met with Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition and the coordinating framework's candidate for the Iraqi premiership."
REPLACING MALIKI OR FACING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS… NASIF REVEALS A DECISIVE AMERICAN WARNING
MP Alia Nassif, from the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, revealed on Tuesday that there is an American deadline that ends on Friday, related to the prime minister file, indicating the possibility of imposing sanctions in case of non-compliance.
Nasif said in a televised interview followed by “Al-Mutlaa” that “Nouri al-Maliki’s appointment as Prime Minister is facing difficulty, stressing that there is no official position within the coalition rejecting his nomination,” noting that parties had contacted Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa regarding the rejection of al-Maliki. She added that: “Bahaa Al-Araji’s tweet represents his personal position, noting that political entities contacted Ahmed Al-Sharaa regarding Al-Maliki’s rejection.”
She explained that: “The envoy of US President Donald Trump informed the political parties of Maliki’s rejection, warning of sanctions that may include individuals and institutions, indicating that these sanctions may affect the State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO), the Central Bank and banks.”
She explained that: “Al-Maliki’s nomination was done verbally, and his appointment requires an official document from the coordination framework, stressing that the President of the Republic will not appoint him without this procedure.”
She added that: “The message conveyed by the American envoy, Barak, came at the direction of Trump, indicating that the United States is seeking to return strongly to Iraq.” She noted that: “Al-Maliki pledged to re-nominate Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, while there is talk of three candidates for the premiership that do not include his name.
