Iraq stands at a historic crossroads. Political gridlock surrounding Nouri al-Maliki, mounting US pressure, and major structural economic reforms are converging at the same time.
This could be one of the most pivotal weeks in modern Iraqi politics — and for those watching the Iraqi Dinar RV, the implications are enormous.
Let’s break it down clearly and factually.
Kurds and Sunnis Refuse to Back a Maliki Government
The Kurdish and Sunni blocs have made it clear:
They will not attend parliament to vote for a president who would appoint Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister.
This creates yet another constitutional and political roadblock. Without their participation, forming a government becomes nearly impossible.
Even within the Shiite Coordination Framework, internal dissent is growing. One striking quote from recent reporting asked:
“Why do we condemn the Sunnis and Kurds for being influenced by the American decision, and not criticize the Shiites who are sometimes influenced by Iran?”
This statement reveals the deep ideological divide at play. The debate is no longer just political — it is geopolitical, centered on whether Iraq aligns more closely with Washington or Tehran.
The US White House Issues 7 Official Demands
The White House has now escalated matters beyond rhetoric. Through diplomatic channels, Washington delivered an official letter outlining seven demands focused on reducing Iranian influence in Baghdad’s political and security institutions.
The message is clear:
Government formation is now part of the larger US–Iran regional contest.
Iraqi leadership must distance itself from sanctioned factions.
Continued Iranian influence could trigger severe consequences.
This is no longer speculation. It is formal diplomatic pressure.
Maliki’s Conditional Withdrawal
According to members of the Coordination Framework, Nouri al-Maliki is willing to withdraw — but only if the bloc formally requests it by majority or unanimous vote.
Publicly, he insists he will not bow to external pressure.
However, the reality is stark:
If the Framework refuses to replace him, they risk losing majority status altogether. Kurdish and Sunni absence would collapse their governing ability.
This week is considered critical. Yet broader Iran-related tensions may need resolution before a final political breakthrough occurs.
Is There Any Good News? Yes — Major Economic Reform
While politics remain turbulent, the economic reform story is far more encouraging.
2026 Public Finances Enter Implementation Phase
The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that Iraq’s 2026 public finances have entered the practical implementation phase under the amended Federal Financial Management Law No. 6 of 2019.
Key highlights:
Approximately 8 trillion Iraqi dinars per month allocated for salaries, pensions, and social welfare.
Oil revenues continue flowing steadily.
Mandatory expenditures are prioritized.
Liquidity management is now tightly regulated.
This reflects structured financial governance — something long encouraged by the International Monetary Fundduring consultation sessions.
The IMF repeatedly stressed that Iraq must diversify revenue sources beyond oil dependency. The fact that implementation has reached this phase signals serious progress.
ASYCUDA: The End of the 2003 Emergency System
One of the most significant reforms underway involves the implementation of the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA) system.
Government spokesman Bassem Al-Awadi stated:
The 2003-era emergency trade system is ending.
Trade is now digitally tracked and internationally supervised.
Customs and tariffs are strictly enforced.
Fake imports used to obtain US dollars are being eliminated.
Anti-money laundering compliance is strengthened.
This system is used in over 100 countries and is implemented under international and UN oversight.
Let’s be clear about what this means:
The currency auction era that enabled abuse is being dismantled.
Change is painful, especially for those who benefited from the old structure. But normalization is essential for:
WTO accession
Global trade integration
Financial transparency
Eventual currency reinstatement
Every step away from “sanctions-era mechanics” moves Iraq closer to full normalization.
The Sanctions Threat: More Severe Than 1991?
Now comes the warning.
Hoshyar Zebari, a leader within the Kurdistan Democratic Party, stated that the US has threatened sanctions potentially harsher than the 1991 embargo.
Targets mentioned include:
State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO)
The Central Bank of Iraq
Dollar flows into the country
Ministries linked to sanctioned factions
The message from Washington:
The US will not finance or engage with any government that includes individuals tied to sanctioned or terrorist-designated groups.
If sanctions were imposed on SOMO or the Central Bank, the economic shock would be massive.
The question becomes:
Does Iraq want to risk reversing years of progress?
What This Means for the Dinar RV
Here’s the honest assessment:
Political stability must come first.
Iranian influence must be addressed.
Economic reforms are progressing positively.
Sanctions risk is real and cannot be ignored.
The economic groundwork is improving dramatically.
The political deadlock is the final obstacle.
Q&A Section
Q: Why are Kurds and Sunnis blocking parliament sessions?
A: They refuse to support a government that would reinstall Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister.
Q: What are the US 7 demands focused on?
A: Reducing Iranian influence in Iraq’s political and security structures.
Q: What is ASYCUDA and why is it important?
A: It is an internationally supervised customs tracking system replacing Iraq’s 2003 emergency trade system, improving transparency and compliance.
Q: Could the US really sanction Iraq’s oil or central bank?
A: According to statements from Hoshyar Zebari, those institutions were explicitly mentioned in US warnings.
Q: Is there positive progress economically?
A: Yes. Salary funding is secured, financial law implementation is active, and trade transparency reforms are advancing.
Featured Snippets / Key Highlights
Kurds and Sunnis refuse to support a Maliki-led government.
The US delivered 7 formal demands targeting Iranian influence.
Iraq’s 2026 public finances are officially in implementation phase.
ASYCUDA ends the 2003 emergency trade system.
US sanctions could target SOMO and the Central Bank.
Final Thoughts
Iraq is simultaneously experiencing:
Political confrontation
Geopolitical pressure
Structural financial reform
Trade system modernization
The outcome hinges on whether ideology or economic survival wins the debate.
The progress made over the past few years is real. The question is whether Iraqi leadership will protect it.
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The Kurds and Sunnis will not come to parliament to vote for a president who would appoint Mr. Maliki as prime minister. This is yet another roadblock.
This last part of the article also tells us the state of mind for many of these members of the Coordination Framework. I will quote from the article – “Why do we condemn the Sunnis and Kurds today for being influenced by the American decision, and not criticize the Shiites who are sometimes influenced and “enjoy” the blessing that comes from Iran?” Again, they are basing their decision for Maliki on ideology and not common sense or past performance. This radical Islamic ideology is ruining the middle east.
The US White House also just sent through diplomatic channels (not a tweet) an official letter stating the seven demands concerning Iraq and the Iranian influence. Please see article titled “THE US 7 DEMANDS ON IRANIAN INFLUENCE IN BAGHDAD”. The letter places heavy emphasis on reducing Iranian influence in Baghdad’s political and security affairs amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iraq’s prolonged government formation process following the November 2025 elections.
The letter underscores how Iraq’s government formation has become a key arena in the larger US-Iran contest for regional dominance
Then we read there may be relief from the deadlock of this ongoing saga from the Maliki issue in another article titled “ON ONE CONDITION… MALIKI THREATENS TO WITHDRAW, AND AL-SHATRI TOPS THE LIST OF CANDIDATES TO SUCCEED HIM”. As the political deadlock continues to grip Iraq, new information and reports have revealed the conditions set by the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, in exchange for withdrawing his candidacy for the position of Prime Minister, coinciding with talk of intense international pressure to exclude him from the scene.
In this regard, Mahmoud al-Hayani, a member of the Coordination Framework, told Kurdistan24, “Nouri al-Maliki is prepared to withdraw his candidacy on one condition only: that the leaders of the Coordination Framework unanimously or by majority vote request him to do so.” Al-Hayani emphasized that al-Maliki has no intention of backing down under any external pressure, stressing that the decision remains contingent upon consensus within the Shia political bloc.
On the other hand, media sources reported that a new American message was sent to the leaders of the Coordination Framework last night, in which Washington clearly expressed its opposition to Nouri al-Maliki assuming the premiership again, stressing its categorical rejection of this optio n.
Maliki presents himself as if he has a choice. The Coordination Framework is boxed in and has no choice but to let Maliki go or they will lose the majority block. We are hearing this is a critical week for this to be ironed out, however I believe this will not happen until the issues with Iran are also settled first by the US one way or the other.
______________________________
Is there any good news?
In the article titled “ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER: PUBLIC FINANCES FOR 2026 HAVE ENTERED THE PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION PHASE.” Attention is focused on revenue indicators and public spending patterns as the clearest measure of economic stability. With the continued flow of oil revenues, the issue of salaries has emerged as a top priority for a large segment of society, and assurances have been given that salaries are secured.
The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stated that “public finances for 2026 have entered the practical implementation phase of the provisions of the amended Federal Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019, which mandates securing monthly resources of the highest priority to cover mandatory expenditures, primarily employee salaries, pensions, and social welfare allocations, estimated at approximately (8) trillion Iraqi dinars per month.”
These obligations constitute the core of current social spending, necessitating meticulous liquidity management and strict regulation of spending priorities.
If you recall the results of many of the IMF consultation sessions with Iraq the top priority was for Iraq to expand their economy from sole oil revenues as a means of Public Financing, especially the monthly salaries, which we learn today again amount to 8 trillion dinars or almost 8 billion dollars. To me this news today is telling us that Iraq has achieved this goal or is very close to it. How did this occur?
We can also tie into the news in the article titled “NO TURNING BACK ON THE ASYCUDA… THE GOVERNMENT CALLS ON TRADERS TO ACCEPT THE NEW REALITY”to get some answers to what the Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, has stated that “public finances for 2026 have entered the practical implementation phase in the last article. What do they mean when they say “the 2003 system has ended” ? I think it is clearly explained in this article today. Yes, change is hard but Iraq must move on from the past 22 years since 2003. The system put in place since 2003 is over (referring to the currency auctions and the way trade was conducted) and I think this is the announcement that Salih is making in this article. Let’s take a peek at the highlights of the article as why we think this is the case. Now everything is strictly tracked, monitored and tariffs/customs applied. No more faking imports to get the dollar. Of course these money changers are going to be pissed off. You just took their livelihood away from them. It was also illegal…
I quote pieces from the article – “The Iraqi government called on Sunday (February 15, 2026) for those objecting to the implementation of the ASYCUDA system and customs tariffs to accept the new reality and comply with the law. Speaking on behalf of the government, spokesperson Bassem Al-Awadi explained that this system, which is implemented in more than 100 countries, will be applied in Iraq under international and UN supervision. He added that part of the ASYCUDA implementation is linked to Iraq’s international obligations in the areas of combating money laundering, currency and goods smuggling, and international trade.
The government spokesman stressed that “this system is not targeting a specific class, and the rumors that speak of a lack of liquidity in the Iraqi state and that is why it went towards this system are untrue. All of this is incorrect, because the process of trade, accounting and customs since 2003 was an arbitrary emergency process, and in the end, now this year or next year or after 3 years, everyone knows that these temporary matters must end and we must move towards the right things.”
Note that any movement in the direction away from the sanction mode of the past is a good mode. Iraq is getting normalized. Everyone of such movements brings them nearer to the accession to the WTO and to the Reinstatement.
Now, having said all this good news let me present an article to you of what might happen to the Iraqi economy if the Iranian influence is not squashed in Iraq. Does Iraq really want this to happen with all the progress they have made? Just saying….
Here is the article titled “MORE SEVERE THAN THE 1991 EMBARGO… WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE AMERICAN SANCTIONS THREATENING IRAQ?”Hoshyar Zebari, a leader in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, stated that the United States has threatened Iraq with sanctions even harsher than those imposed in 1991, including the SOMO company, the Central Bank, and other institutions .Zebari said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network, “America has confirmed that it will not deal with any government that includes representatives of some factions listed on the terrorism or sanctions lists of the Treasury Department, and they will not deal with any government, even with ministries occupied by those affiliated with the factions .”
He added that “America has threatened sanctions against SOMO, the Central Bank, and dollar flows, sanctions that are more severe than the 1991 embargo,” noting that “Washington has confirmed that it will not finance any regime or government that violates its sanctions .”
