Financial advisor: Fixing the exchange rate in the budget is a coordinating decision and enhances market stability.
The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stated that the exchange rate in Iraq is subject to a fixed official rate system based on integrated coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, and is not an arbitrary decision.
In an exclusive statement to Al-Mirbad, Salih explained that while the exchange rate is a tool of monetary policy,
in practice it is the result of an agreement between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq and is clearly stipulated in the annual budget.
He added that the reported adoption of an exchange rate of 1,300 dinars per dollar in the 2026 budget represents a significant positive indicator that will contribute to strengthening stability, calming the market, and curbing speculation in the black market and parallel market.
He indicated that the Central Bank sent an official letter to the Ministry of Finance to establish this rate as a fixed element of the general budget, noting that
setting the exchange rate is essential given that oil revenues constitute approximately 90 percent of public revenues, which are in foreign currency.
He confirmed that the rate currently in effect is the one announced, pending the finalization of the draft budget upon its official release and submission to Parliament for discussion and approval. link
Introduction: Why Timing and Laws Matter More Than Ever
Recent discussions from Omar and Frank26 shed new light on Iraq’s political timeline, the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL), and the digitization of the Iraqi monetary system—all of which are considered essential pillars of Iraq’s long-awaited monetary reform.
While official timelines appear to push political completion toward March, many believe key laws and mechanisms are already positioned to move much faster once triggered.
Iraq’s Political Timeline Explained
According to Omar, Iraqi news outlets clarified the following sequence:
Leadership Appointment Process
Once the President is named, the Prime Minister will be named immediately
Constitutionally, the President has 15 days to appoint the Prime Minister
The Prime Minister then has 30 days to form a cabinet and gain parliamentary approval
🗓️ This process could technically extend into March, creating concern for those expecting immediate movement.
However, history has shown that Iraq often compresses timelines when international and economic pressure is applied.
The #1 Law for Iraqi Citizens: The HCL
Frank26 addressed what he considers the most critical law for the Iraqi people:
What Is the #1 Law?
👉 The Hydrocarbon Law (HCL)
This law governs:
Oil and gas revenue sharing
Payments to Iraqi citizens
Federal and regional economic stability
Does the HCL Require a New Exchange Rate?
Frank26 clarified a key distinction:
Technically, the HCL can be passed without a new rate
Realistically, passing it at 1300 IQD would be economically irrational
“If anyone is silly enough to believe they're going to do it at 1300, I got some land to sell you on the moon.”
Critical Insight
“The moment you see the HCL, within nanoseconds, you will see the new exchange rate.”
This reinforces long-held views that the HCL and the new exchange rate are functionally inseparable, even if not legally bound.
Digitization: The Silent Engine of Monetary Reform
One of the most important developments discussed was digitalization.
Why Digitization Matters
Digitization will:
Enable rapid collection of three-zero notes
Avoid logistical chaos of physical cash replacement
Support transparency and compliance
Prevent hyperinflation
Frank26 emphasized:
“Physically it is going to be a nightmare, but electronically it’ll be done very quickly, very easily, very clean.”
Three-Zero Notes Strategy
Many mechanisms are already in place to:
Absorb large-denomination notes
Transition the population smoothly
Maintain price stability during reform
📌 Digitization is not the reform itself—it is the final accelerator, or as Frank26 put it:
“The cherry on top.”
Featured Snippets (Google Discover Optimized)
What is the most important law for Iraqi citizens right now? The Hydrocarbon Law (HCL) is considered the most critical law, as it directly impacts oil revenue sharing and citizen payments.
Can Iraq pass the HCL without changing the exchange rate?
While technically possible, analysts believe implementing the HCL at the current rate of 1300 IQD would be economically unrealistic.
Why is digitization important for Iraq’s currency reform? Digitization allows Iraq to efficiently collect three-zero notes electronically, reducing inflation risk and logistical challenges.
Q&A Section
Q: Does the political timeline delay the RV until March?
A: Not necessarily. While constitutional timelines extend into March, Iraq has historically moved faster when conditions are met.
Q: Is the HCL guaranteed to trigger a rate change?
A: There is no official guarantee, but many believe the HCL cannot function properly without a new rate.
Q: Are three-zero notes being eliminated physically or digitally?
A: Both, but digitization allows the process to occur much faster and cleaner.
Q: Is this information confirmed?
A: No. All statements reflect opinions and analysis, not official government confirmation.
Important Disclaimers
Frank26 & Omar Commentary Disclaimer All opinions expressed are personal interpretations and not statements of fact.
General Disclaimer THIS CONTENT IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A QUALIFIED PROFESSIONAL.
Final Thoughts
The convergence of:
Political leadership formation
The Hydrocarbon Law
Currency digitization
Inflation control mechanisms
suggests Iraq is structurally preparing, even if the final trigger has not yet been publicly pulled.
Whether timelines compress or stretch, the infrastructure appears ready.
They were talking on the news this morning. Once they name the president they said they will name the prime minister right away. But technically they want the president to have 15 days to name the prime minister...They still have 30 more days for the prime minister to do a cabinet and get it approved...That'll put it towards March.
Frank26
What is the #1 law for the citizens that is going to be passed right away?
The #1 law is the HCL and that requires a new rate. But we learned the HCL can be passed without the rate...[but] if anyone is silly enough to believe they're going to do it at 1300 I got some land to sell you on the moon...The moment you see the HCL, within nanoseconds, you will see the new exchange rate.
Digitalization is going to be important. It will help to collect the three zero notes because physically it is going to be a nightmare but electronically it'll be done very quickly, very easily, very clean... There are so many things already in place to bring in the three zero notes. IMO digitization will simply be the cherry on top of all the other mechanisms to make sure that hyperinflation does not destroy the monetary reform...
Al-Sudani: We are proceeding with the implementation of reform plans
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani affirmed on Sunday his commitment to implementing reform and development plans and completing projects.
A statement from his media office, received by Al-Rabia, stated that "Al-Sudani received a group of members of the 'I Will Take My Right' movement to review developments in the country and the government's program for achieving development and economic progress."
He affirmed his commitment to "proceeding with the implementation of reform and development plans and completing projects," praising the movement's stances and its support for the process of construction and development, and its essential role as an important member and partner in the Reconstruction and Development Coalition.
The Prime Minister also stressed the importance of unity and strengthening partnership and cooperation among national forces, in order to expedite the completion of constitutional requirements and combine everyone's efforts to improve the living conditions and services for citizens to meet their aspirations and fulfill their needs. link
Introduction: Another Critical Week in the RV Journey
As the global financial landscape continues to shift, Iraq’s political developments, gold market reforms, and bond-related rumors remain at the center of attention for those watching the Iraqi Dinar revaluation (RV).
In today’s MarkZ discussion, community members shared optimism, frustration, humor, and faith—reflecting the emotional rollercoaster that has defined this journey for years.
From Maliki’s declining influence to gold-backed currency education, and from bond silence to January timing rumors, this update captures the pulse of where things stand now.
Iraq Political Developments: Power Shifts Behind the Scenes
Maliki Losing Ground
MarkZ highlighted increasing instability surrounding former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, stating:
“Maliki is slipping. Pay attention because Abadi is also opposed.”
Maliki is reportedly struggling to gain the political support necessary to regain the Prime Minister position. This internal resistance suggests a continued reshaping of Iraq’s leadership, which many believe is necessary before any meaningful currency reform can occur.
Community members raised critical issues still unresolved in Iraq:
Who is Savaya meeting with today?
Has there been progress in selecting the President’s seat?
Any confirmed advancement on the Hydrocarbon Law (HCL)?
Have the militias disarmed as required?
These remain key benchmarks frequently associated with RV readiness.
Gold Market Reforms: A Strategic Signal?
One of the most significant updates came from Al Sudani’s advisor Saleh, who outlined six measures to end manipulation in Iraq’s gold market.
Why Gold Matters
MarkZ believes this is not accidental:
“People are using gold as a store of wealth. I believe they are educating the people towards a gold backing for their currency.”
This aligns with long-standing speculation that Iraq may be preparing its population for a more asset-backed or value-supported currency system, increasing public trust and stability.
Bond Market Update: Silence… For Now
On the bond side, MarkZ reported:
No updates today
Banking holiday (MLK Day)
Waiting on confirmation from contacts regarding a release promised last week
Despite the quiet, many believe bond holders and currency holders will move simultaneously
, often described as “shotgun timing.”
RV Timing Speculation: January Signals Everywhere
Several rumors and reports surfaced during the discussion:
Bank contacts in Southern California allegedly expect rates to appear before January 30
One individual was reportedly scheduled to exchange on January 30
January 20 is rumored to be a “big day”
New tax brackets, Basel III, and credit card caps were mentioned
Trump’s upcoming appearance at Davos sparked speculation
MarkZ confirmed:
“I am hearing the 20th is supposed to be a big day as well.”
As always, these remain unverified and should be treated cautiously.
Community Sentiment: Faith, Fatigue & Hope
The emotional tone of the community was mixed:
“Feels like Groundhog Day… or Gilligan’s Island.”
“This is quite a movie we are watching… looking forward to the end credits.”
“We were told things would get crazy at the end.”
Despite fatigue, faith and unity remain strong, with members encouraging prayer, patience, and mutual support.
Featured Snippets (Google Discover Ready)
Is Iraq moving toward a gold-backed currency? Iraq’s recent gold market reforms suggest an effort to educate citizens on gold as a store of value, possibly preparing the population for broader monetary reform.
Is Maliki still relevant in Iraq’s political future? According to MarkZ, Maliki is losing political support and facing opposition, weakening his chances of returning as Prime Minister.
When could the RV happen? Rumors suggest late January timing, but no official confirmation exists. All information remains speculative.
Q&A Section
Q: Has the U.S. officially withdrawn from Iraq?
A: Some media outlets reported this, but confirmation and context are still unclear.
Q: Will bond holders be paid before currency exchanges?
A: Many believe bond releases and currency exchanges will happen around the same time.
Q: Should rumors about solar flares and internet outages be taken seriously?
A: There is no confirmed evidence linking solar activity to RV timing.
Q: Are these updates financial advice?
A: No. All content is educational and opinion-based only.
MarkZ Disclaimer (Required)
Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything, and it’s best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions.
Final Disclaimer
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL, OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY.
On Trump's orders, Savaya is in Baghdad: "Complete compliance or total eradication."
With news of the arrival of US President Donald Trump’s envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, today or tomorrow in Baghdad, carrying a “booby-trapped briefcase” of files, sanctions, and what Washington calls “hard gifts,” attention is turning to one of the most complex issues in the Iraqi economy: money smuggling networks, money laundering, and the circulation of hard currency outside legal channels, amid anticipation of the extent of the targeting that may extend to banks, companies, businessmen, and networks linked to armed factions, and what impact this step may have on the stability of the economy, the exchange rate, and the balance of political power internally.
Savaya: An envoy speaking "the language of numbers"
Mark Savaya, an Iraqi-American businessman of Chaldean origin, has served as the US Special Envoy to Iraq since October 2025, with authority directly linking the Iraqi file to the White House.
In recent days, he held a series of meetings in Washington, including with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hagseth and the Director of Counterterrorism, before proceeding to the US Treasury Department, where he announced an agreement on a "comprehensive review" of payment records and financial transactions linked to institutions, companies, and individuals in Iraq whose names are associated with smuggling, money laundering, and fraudulent contracts and projects.
Economic and financial expert Ahmed Al-Tamimi believes that this course "reflects an escalating American trend to tighten pressure tools in the near future," explaining to "Baghdad Today" that Washington presents these steps as part of "attempts to protect the international financial system and prevent its exploitation in money laundering operations and financing illegal activities."
From dollar restrictions to selective sanctions
Over the past few years, the United States has tightened restrictions on Iraqi banks' access to dollars through the foreign exchange platform and their dealings with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This has resulted in limiting the transactions of several private banks and prohibiting others from using dollars, ostensibly to curb currency smuggling abroad. This context makes the new threat brandished by Savaya an extension of an existing pattern, but one more specifically targeting individuals, companies, and networks.
Al-Tamimi explains one aspect of the nature of the potential sanctions, indicating that "the package may include freezing assets, restrictions on bank transfers, and a ban on dealing with financial institutions and companies suspected of involvement in serious violations," which means that some economic entities may suddenly find themselves outside the network of international transactions, or under strict scrutiny that raises the cost of any external activity for them.
Who is the likely target?
Despite the absence of publicly announced regulations so far, the pattern of US sanctions in similar cases allows for an initial outline of the categories likely to be targeted:
- Banks and money exchange companies whose names frequently appear in compliance and money laundering reports, or which have been linked to dollar transfers that were blocked in the past. - Front companies in the contracting, equipment, and general trading sectors, operating as cover for government contracts or the supply of essential goods, with suspicions that "margins" are being paid to political entities or armed factions. - Businessmen and financial intermediaries managing a complex network of cross-border transfers and contracts, particularly with countries subject to sanctions or strict monitoring. - Entities linked to armed factions that are designated or quasi-designated on sanctions lists, whether through security companies, associations, or commercial and media fronts.
In this context, Al-Tamimi points out that "the message is not directed only at the names that will be placed on the list, but at the wider circle around them," because any businessman, bank or company that gets close to this circle will find himself under the microscope of international compliance systems, even if his name is not directly mentioned in the sanctions decisions.
How will Iraq's economy be affected?
Economically, the effects of sanctions are not limited to freezing an account here or banning a bank there; they extend to the image of the Iraqi market as a whole in the eyes of correspondent banks and investors. Al-Tamimi warns that "any expansion of the scope of sanctions will practically lead to even stricter measures by foreign banks, which may resort to what is called 'excessive compliance,' meaning refraining from dealing with Iraqi entities simply for fear of being sanctioned."
This rigidity is reflected in three main ways:
- Increased cost of remittances and foreign trade: The higher the risk factor in dealing with Iraq, the higher the commissions and processing times for remittances, and some transactions may even be rejected outright. - Additional pressure on the exchange rate: If the flow of official dollars declines, or the number of restricted banks expands, reliance on the parallel market will increase, threatening to erode citizens' purchasing power and widen the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. - Slowdown in investments and major projects: International companies will reconsider their plans, especially in sectors where government contracts involve local entities subject to sanctions or suspicion.
The citizen at the heart of the storm: from the dollar to prices
Although sanctions are legally framed as being "targeted" at specific individuals and entities, experience in Iraq, Iran, and Syria over the past years shows that ordinary citizens often bear the brunt of the impact. Al-Tamimi explains that "any disruption to the flow of dollars or tightening of transfers is quickly reflected in the prices of imported goods, from food to medicine and construction materials, because the Iraqi economy is highly dependent on imports."
As costs rise for banks and companies, the burden is gradually passed on to the end consumer through:
- Increased prices for goods and services. - Reduced job opportunities in sectors affected by sanctions or banking restrictions. - Restricted access to loans and financing, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.
In this sense, how the government manages this issue becomes a crucial factor in mitigating the impact of sanctions on the public: the more organized alternatives for trade and finance are available, and the more the parallel market is controlled and monopolies are prevented, the less able speculators are to turn sanctions into an opportunity to profit at the expense of the citizen.
Will politicians be affected and will the equation be disrupted?
Politically, sanctions of this kind have the potential to rearrange some of the balance of power within the Iraqi political system:
Political blocs whose power is largely derived from money may face restrictions on their traditional funding networks, limiting their ability to manage election campaigns, buy loyalties, or finance media and service-oriented outlets.
Some politicians linked to businessmen or banks subject to sanctions may find themselves facing two equally unpalatable options: either attempting to distance themselves from these networks or engaging in a political and media confrontation with Washington, with all the domestic and international costs that entails.
Other forces may exploit the sanctions to present themselves as "less costly" to the West, through reformist rhetoric and promises of financial compliance, thus adding an external dimension to the internal competition.
Conversely, some factions are attempting to downplay the threats from Savaya, with some of their rhetoric even resorting to mockery of any political or economic entity that seriously addresses the sanctions issue or tries to open channels of understanding with it, going so far as to issue veiled threats against anyone who "cooperates" with the American approach.
These messages may discourage some actors from pursuing financial reform, but they do not negate the fact that the sanctions are imposed from abroad, and their cost will affect everyone to varying degrees.
Two parallel paths: sanctions and "surgical" strikes
Another significant indicator, not lost on observers, is the arrangement of Savaya's meetings in Washington: the Treasury Department on one hand, and the Department of Defense on the other. This arrangement, in the view of many, reflects two parallel approaches within the Trump administration's thinking regarding Iraq and the region.
- A financial and punitive track led by the Treasury Department, through reviewing records, tightening compliance, and imposing sanctions on individuals and entities. - A "surgical" security and military track remains available as a backup option, based on targeted strikes against objectives classified as a direct threat to US interests or those of its partners.
This is a path Iraq has witnessed in recent years through drone strikes or precision missile attacks targeting leaders and positions of armed factions. The difference this time, according to political assessments, lies in Savaya's position itself; he is presented in political circles as Trump's personal envoy, with whom he has a close relationship and a shared business background. This means that his political mandate may be broader than that of a traditional envoy, and that his recommendations on the issues of sanctions and "surgical" strikes will be closer to the decision-making circle in the White House.
Ahmed Al-Tamimi warns that “combining financial and security tools raises the level of risks; if sanctions alone do not bring about the desired change from Washington’s point of view, the appetite for using other tools may increase, and Iraq has experienced this equation more than once.”
A test of the will for reform before it is a conflict with Washington
Ultimately, the "Safaya sanctions" issue is not simply a bilateral conflict between Baghdad and Washington, but rather reveals an internal test of the will for reform in Iraq:
If the government acts swiftly to cleanse the financial system, tighten oversight of banks and companies, and protect the exchange market from speculation, some of the pressure can be contained and transformed into an opportunity to rebuild confidence. However, if the threat is treated as "merely a passing political maneuver," met only with denials or verbal escalation, Iraq may find itself facing a broader package of sanctions, where the interests of the White House intersect with regional agendas, while the average citizen bears the brunt of the cost at exchange bureaus and on market shelves.
Between these two paths, Washington and its allies will be watching events unfold, just as the Iraqi public is watching the exchange rate, the cost of living, and job opportunities. The difference is that the former possesses the tools of sanctions and "surgery," while the latter can only wait for the results of the numbers game and the decisions made far from its grasp, only to discover later whether it alone will bear the brunt of it, or whether genuine reform will finally begin from within before being imposed from the outside. link