An economist explains the budget and spending mechanism (1/12) under the caretaker government.
Economic expert Salah Nouri explained on Tuesday the legal foundations for submitting and approving the federal general budget, and the financial disbursement mechanisms adopted in the event of its non-approval, especially in light of the caretaker government situation.
Nouri pointed out in his statement to Al-Furat News Agency that “Article (11) of the Federal Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019 stipulated that the draft federal general budget law be submitted by the Council of Ministers to the House of Representatives before the middle of October of each year.”
He explained that “Article (13), Paragraph Three, dealt with the situation of the House of Representatives not approving the draft budget law until 12/31 of the fiscal year, as the final financial statements for the previous year are considered the basis for the financial statements for the current year, and are submitted to the House of Representatives for the purpose of approving them.”
He added that "the current situation is that the government is a caretaker government, and therefore paragraph one of Article (13) is applied, which allows spending at a rate of 1/12 of the total actual expenditures of the previous year, after excluding non-recurring expenditures for the current and investment budgets." link
IQD Revaluation Discussion: Central Bank Autonomy, Global News & Market Rumors
Disclaimer: This article summarizes commentary and opinions shared in discussions about the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) revaluation. The views expressed are personal opinions, not financial advice. Always verify information against official sources and consult licensed professionals for financial decisions.
🏦 Central Bank of Iraq: Autonomous Monetary Authority
One of the most important points raised in recent discussions is the autonomy of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI).
Unlike legislative bodies, the CBI operates independently on monetary policy — including exchange‑rate decisions — without needing full government formation to act. This means the bank could theoretically adjust exchange rates even if the political process is not complete.
However, there is no public confirmation that the CBI uses government formation as an internal “stability benchmark” before changing the official rate. This is a matter of speculation and not verified by official policy statements.
Reuters and Iraq’s official statements show the CBI selects exchange‑rate policy independently, focusing on economic fundamentals, not political timelines.
2026 federal budget, the Central Bank has kept the official exchange rate at 1,300 Iraqi dinars per US dollar — the same level used in previous years.
This does not indicate a sudden revaluation. Instead, it reflects a decision to maintain exchange‑rate stability for budgeting and fiscal planning.
This stability offers clarity for economic accounts but does not confirm a rate change or “RV”.
📈 Credit Rating & Banking Reform Efforts
Several developments show Iraq’s ongoing financial reforms:
🔹 Improving Credit Rating Initiatives
Iraq is actively working to boost its sovereign credit rating by coordinating multi‑agency policy teams — including the CBI, Ministry of Finance, and international advisers — to improve governance, risk control, and international confidence.
🔹 Working With Oliver Wyman
The Central Bank and government advisors are reviewing public debt and banking reforms with Oliver Wyman, a global advisory firm, to modernize financial systems and enhance stability.
Reforms like these are infrastructure progress, but they are
not confirmations of a revaluation date.
🌍 Global Economic Rumors vs. Verified Information
In community discussions, various rumors circulate, such as:
Speculation about global leaders or events triggering an “RV switch”
Claims of IRS or U.S. Supreme Court actions directly influencing currency revaluation
Linking foreign events (e.g., Iranian currency fluctuation, or Davos/WEF meetings) to imminent IQD movement
These are rumors without credible evidence. No authoritative economic source has connected U.S. judicial actions or world forums to Iraq’s monetary policy.
While global markets do influence economic confidence, official policy changes come from measurable economic factors, not rumors.
📊 Iraq’s Real Economic Context
Here’s what verified news tells us:
🔹 Government Reform Path Completed?
Iraq’s Prime Minister recently stated that the government has completed its financial and economic reform path, a statement tied to broader institutional changes.
🔹 Currency Market Conditions
Independent reports show that the Iraqi dinar continues to trade differently across official and market channels, reflecting real supply‑and‑demand pressures rather than sudden “revaluation.” Market commentators have noted that unofficial rates frequently trade weaker than the official rate — a sign of market dynamics.
🧠 Featured Snippet
The Central Bank of Iraq is autonomous and has maintained the official IQD rate at 1,300 per U.S. dollar for the 2026 budget. Iraq continues financial reforms and credit rating improvement efforts, but no official rate change or revaluation has been publicly confirmed.
❓ Q&A: Key Questions on IQD Revaluation
Q: Can the CBI change the IQD rate without a government?
Yes. The Central Bank is independent, but it typically bases decisions on economic data and stability, not political events.
Q: Does Iran’s currency movement affect the IQD?
Not directly — currency conditions in other nations do not automatically trigger policy changes in Iraq.
Q: Is there a confirmed “RV date”?
No — official institutions have not announced a revaluation date.
Q: What is the official exchange rate for 2026?
The CBI selected 1,300 IQD per USD for budgeting purposes.
Q: Are banking reforms underway?
Yes. Iraq is coordinating reform efforts with international advisers to boost credibility and financial infrastructure.
🧱 Final Analysis
Discussions about speculative timing, global events, or ethnopolitical narratives are not evidence of policy action.
What is factual:
Iraq continues economic reforms
The CBI maintains exchange‑rate policy based on economic considerations
Official rates are set for fiscal planning, not speculation
No authoritative source confirms a sudden revaluation
Understanding the difference between official signals and rumors is essential for informed analysis.
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
Member: Good Morning….Great to see you all today.
Member: We have a 3-day federal holiday weekend this weekend with Martin Luther King, Jr Day. With all the other news. I wonder what are the chances of things happening this weekend??
Member: Any bond updates?
MZ: My bond update is there will be a meeting occurring in about 2 hours for a contact. This one is in Europe…in Zurich. Very quiet in Asia right now….but hope to get a update soon.
MZ: In Iraq: “ A new rise on the exchange rate on the dollar in Iraq” The dinar rate is sliding as people are using the dollar.
MZ: “The governor of the Central Bank of Iraq meets discusses with Oliver Wyman Company and ways to improve Iraq’s sovereignty and credit rating” They want to lift the value of their currency and get a better credit rating. This article is telling us they are getting ready for that change.
Member: Does anybody else think this Maliki, Sudani election is a smoke screen?
Member: I think a lot of things they are doing is a smoke screen!!
Member: Some days it seems like Iraq doesn’t want to RV
Member: Mnt. Goat still thinks they will delete the 3 zeros this month
MZ: The Iranian currency crashed this week……yesterday in the wee hours. I am a bit concerned and think Iraq may have already gone if not for what is happening right now in Iran.
MZ: Everything happening in Venezuela and Iran look good for the global reset …but may have slowed things down a bit.
MZ: But I am still hearing things are well underway and we are on the precipice for our blessing.
Member: Have you heard that Trump is pausing all IRS transactions for 90 days while they look for fraud?
MZ: Yes. A number of people who work for the IRS told me and they are looking forward to changes. There are rumors that in 6 days or so they will announce the end of the IRS or a change to the “External Revenue Service” . Lots of rumors and very difficult to know what is reality and what is not.
MZ: Our best move may be to sit back and watch it.
Member: Any dong news?
MZ: I did reach out to a banker and they are very much organizing and training on the Vietnamese dong and expect the dong the Iraqi dinar to go at the same time.
Member: Silver is at $88 but the asking price is $91
Member: They are saying possible $300 dollar silver soon.
Member: I'm hearing HSBC must exit all silver positions by jan 31st which should push silver to $347
Member: Ariel believes scotus may go against Trump on tariffs and Trump will start throwing RV switches we r looking for….good rumor to watch.
Member: If they vote against tariffs….possible it forces the RV?
Member: Just saw that Supreme Court won't rule on tariffs today
Member: Why am I not surprised.
Member: Skye thinks we are in a 72 hour window.
Member: President Trump will be heading to DAVOS soon. Big world economic meetings this weekend…may be important for us.
MZ: I believe he addresses the forum on the 19th which is in 5 days. “Trump to speak at globalist WEF forum “ What’s it going to look like? Can’t wait to see it.
Member: Hi Mark- have any of your redemption contacts given you any RV exchange protocols? If not, do you know if they will?
Member: Just take all your currency, and receipts…..and everything you would take to the bank to open new accounts with…..but hopefully we get a detailed list before then.
Member: Have a great day to all……the best is yet to come.
Ministry spokesman Miqdad Miri told Al-Eqtisad News that "security forces were able to arrest 91 people on charges of manipulating dollar prices."
He pointed out that "the ministry was also able to arrest 147 people manipulating the prices of food and medicine," indicating that "the Ministry of Interior has contracted for 100 fixed and mobile radars to monitor external roads link
IQD Revaluation Progress: Iraq’s Shift to Digital Payments and Cash Reduction
One of the most overlooked yet critical indicators of Iraq’s monetary readiness is the steady removal of physical cash from the streets.
Over the past five+ years, Iraq’s electronic payment systems have quietly transformed how the economy functions — and the data confirms measurable, accelerating progress.
This is not theory. This is documented monetary evolution.
💳 Iraq’s Transition Away from Physical Cash
Pre-2020: Cash-Dominated Economy
Before 2020, Iraq’s economy relied almost entirely on physical dinar notes.
By 2023, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) reported that:
Cash in circulation dropped 20% to 30% compared to 2018 levels
This marked the first verified structural change in payment behavior.
📊 2020–2025: Accelerated Digital Adoption
By late 2025, data showed a dramatic transformation:
Cash dependency fell to 65% of total payments
Down from 95% in 2020
Electronic payment usage expanded across:
Government salaries
Retail transactions
Private sector payments
This is a 30% shift in just five years.
🚀 2026: Momentum Continues to Build
In the current year (2026):
Cash on the street continues to decline
Digital dinar pilot programs are expanding
Private sector adoption is accelerating
POS systems and mobile payments are becoming standard
The trend is not slowing — it is compounding.
🧠 Why Cash Reduction Matters for the IQD
Reducing physical cash strengthens the CBI’s ability to:
Manage the exchange rate peg
Control liquidity
Monitor money supply in real time
Reduce black-market currency activity
Most importantly, it prepares Iraq for:
Managed REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) adjustments
Advanced monetary policy tools
Eventual cash-light or cash-less operations
🧩 Featured Snippet for Google Discover
Iraq’s electronic payment systems have reduced cash dependency from 99% pre-2020 to approximately 65% by late 2025, strengthening the Central Bank’s control over liquidity and preparing the IQD for future managed exchange rate adjustments.
🏦 Electronic Systems: Pulling Cash Off the Street
Electronic banking is doing exactly what it was designed to do:
Remove excess physical dinar
Improve compliance and transparency
Centralize monetary oversight
And the pace is accelerating.
This process is essential before any major currency adjustment.
Iraq's electronic payment systems have been steadily reducing the amount of physical cash circulating on the street of the last 5+ years .. The data shows clear measurable progress...
Pre-2020 baseline cash was dominant, 99% transactions with high reliance on physical dinar notes...Move forward...2023 CBI reported cash circulation dropped 20% to 30% from 2018...By late 2025, cash dependency fell to 65% of payments from 95% in 2020...
The reduction in cash is ever going until they go cash-less... Current year 2026, cash on the street continues to decline as digital dinar pilots expand and private sector adoption grows...Lower cash reliance strengthens the CBI's ability to manage the peg and prepare for potential managed REER adjustments...Electronic systems are successfully pulling cash off the street and the pace is accelerating..
Experts: The Rise In The Parallel Market Exchange Rate For The Dollar Is Temporary.
Economic 2026/01/07 Baghdad: Hussein Thagab and Anwar Ayed The parallel exchange market in Iraq witnessed a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar in recent days, reaching around 149,000 dinars per 100 dollars, which had a "slight" impact on the prices of various goods and materials.
Despite the rise in “parallel exchange rates”, specialists confirm that these surges are “temporary” and do not pose any economic concerns at all, especially with the precautionary measures taken by the “monetary authority” to absorb the severity of the rise.
The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, had previously described the fluctuation in the exchange rate as “temporary” and not reflecting a structural imbalance, especially since it had practically become detached from the level of income and consumption.
Structural Factors
Economic and financial expert, Dr. Nabil Al-Abadi, believes that this phenomenon is not a coincidence or the result of a single factor, but rather the result of a complex interaction between a number of structural and circumstantial factors, internal and external, which can be analyzed into three reasons: internal structural and institutional factors, market behaviors and speculation, and external restrictions and influences.
Al-Abadi explained in an interview with Al-Sabah that, with regard to internal structural and institutional factors, the Iraqi economy is a mono-type economy, as oil revenues constitute the main source of hard currency, noting that this framework makes the balance of payments and the exchange rate highly vulnerable to the fluctuations of global oil markets.
Single Economy
Al-Abadi added that, on the monetary front, policies aimed at de-dollarization, which are essential for long-term monetary sovereignty, are being implemented rapidly. However, this implementation has been accompanied by stricter controls on dollar sales and remittance channels, leading to a reduction in supply through semi-official channels and pushing a significant portion of demand towards the parallel market.
Furthermore, the weakness of the private productive sector, whether industrial or agricultural, means the absence of an alternative domestic source of foreign currency beyond oil revenues, depriving the economy of a crucial lever for exchange rate stability.
In addition, recent developments in the customs system, particularly the requirement for prior documentation under the ASYCUDA system to obtain dollars at the official rate, have disrupted normal trade flows. He explained that this complexity and delay have driven a number of traders, especially medium-sized ones, to resort to the parallel market to finance their urgent transactions, thus increasing actual demand there.
Market And Speculation
Al-Abadi added that, regarding market behavior and speculation, in the absence of attractive and effective regulatory investment channels, a portion of local liquidity tends to be used for exchange rate speculation as a means of achieving quick profits. He explained that this speculation is often fueled by information noise and rumors, which amplifies short-term volatility. Informal practices have also been observed within the parallel market itself, such as price discrimination between different denominations of the same US dollar, indicating distortions in the market's operational mechanisms.
Regarding the third factor, “external restrictions and influences,” the financial and economic expert said that currency transfers through official Iraqi banking channels are facing increasing difficulties, especially when it comes to neighboring countries subject to international sanctions regimes.
He noted that this reality pushes the commercial sector’s need to transfer through these channels to the parallel market, creating additional structural demand. Moreover, the impact of the general regional and international geopolitical climate cannot be ignored, as any tensions lead to an increase in demand for hard currencies as a safe haven, which is reflected in the markets of fragile countries.
The impact of rumors
Al-Abadi added that in response to this analysis, official bodies are presenting a different narrative, focusing on the transient nature of this rise, as government officials describe it as “emergency and temporary,” and a result of rumors that can be contained, while emphasizing the stability of the official price at 1320 dinars to the dollar as a basic anchor. It is also believed that the reform measures in customs and the banking sector will soon begin to show their positive results.
He stressed that from a professional point of view, the official view, despite the necessary reassurance it provides, deals with the apparent symptoms more than it addresses the root causes, emphasizing that circumstantial factors such as new procedures and rumors play a stimulating role, but the roots of the crisis lie in that dangerous mix of a rentier, mono-economic economic structure, chronic weakness in domestic production, and the complexities of the geopolitical environment.
Repeated Cycles
He stated that without addressing this triad, the Iraqi economy and its currency exchange rate will remain vulnerable to repeated cycles of instability, with crises appearing intermittently and then temporarily disappearing before returning in other forms. He explained that the solution to the exchange rate dilemma does not lie in limited technical intervention to balance the parallel market or simply blaming speculators, despite the importance of these short-term measures.
The spokesperson stressed that a real and sustainable solution requires a comprehensive economic policy that aims to diversify sources of national income, stimulate the productive private sector through a supportive investment and legislative environment, and restructure the financial sector to be more efficient and inclusive.
He pointed out that these structural reforms are the only way to create an economy that is less dependent on the outside and more resistant to shocks, which in turn will reflect on the strength and stability of the national currency in the medium and long term.
Official Price Remains Stable
For his part, Haider Ghazi, the media officer of the Central Bank of Iraq, confirmed that there has been no change in the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar, and it remains fixed at 1,320 dinars per dollar, explaining that what is being circulated as an exchange rate is only the demand of the unofficial market for dollars outside the system of banks licensed to work in foreign transfers through correspondent banks.
In an interview with Al-Sabah, Ghazi attributed the main reason for the rise in the parallel market to the customs duty due to demand outside the banking system, noting that the application of the prior customs duty for transfer purposes may have put significant pressure on those seeking cash dollars, and was behind the rise in demand for the dollar against the dinar in local markets.
He explained that traders are required to bring the customs declaration (customs statement) from the ASYCUDA system before the bank transfer is made to them, adding that on many occasions the Central Bank of Iraq stated that the ways to obtain dollars are through: First, external transfers through banks in a systematic and documented manner with all parties, and second, through the traveler's dollar after depositing an amount in Iraqi dinars with companies of categories A and B, and it is received through outlets inside Iraqi airports, as the bank set the traveler's share per month at $3,000.
Supply And Demand
In addition, a number of traders reported that the rise in the dollar price led to fluctuations in the price of goods, especially imported ones. While they indicated that some commercial activities witnessed a temporary slowdown while awaiting the stabilization of the exchange rate, money exchange shop owners explained that the demand for the dollar had increased during the past few days, compared to a relative decline in supply, which contributed to the rise in the price in the parallel market.
Iraq’s economy is mainly dependent on oil revenues, which represent the largest share of the general budget resources. The local market also depends largely on imports to secure basic goods, making exchange rates an influential factor in the cost of imports and the prices of materials in the market.
Government Procedures
On a related note, economist Mustafa Faraj believes that fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate directly impact the local market, given the nature of the Iraqi economy. He stressed the importance of taking regulatory measures when the exchange rate rises, including controlling the market and regulating trade, as well as ensuring the regular distribution of the food basket to reduce the impact of price changes in basic commodities.
Faraj added that oil prices and geopolitical factors in the region play a role in influencing economic performance, noting that the general budget was built on specific oil price estimates, and with any change in these prices, challenges arise in managing spending.
He suggested that the recent rise in the dollar's price was temporary, linked to the implementation of new mechanisms for regulating trade at the beginning of the year.
Trade Finance Mechanisms
For his part, Professor of International Economics, Nawar Al-Saadi, said that the recent rise in the price of the dollar in the parallel market reflects imbalances in the mechanisms for financing foreign trade and managing the demand for foreign currency, more than it is an indication of weakness in the country’s dollar resources.
Al-Saadi explained that part of the demand for the dollar is related to trade outside official banking channels, in addition to the impact of speculation and psychological factors in the market, stressing that the continued gap between the official price and the parallel market price limits the ability of monetary policies to achieve stability.
Meanwhile, economist Ahmed Eid believes that the rise in the dollar's price came as a result of the convergence of several factors at the same time, including increased commercial demand at the beginning of the year, in addition to psychological and hedging factors among some market participants.
Eid added that these developments do not currently indicate a structural monetary crisis, unless the pressures continue for a longer period or are accompanied by broader economic changes.
Given these circumstances, local market participants are awaiting government measures to control exchange rate activity, amid expectations that the dollar's price trajectory in the coming period will be determined by the balance of supply and demand and trade financing mechanisms.