Saturday, January 3, 2026
CALLS TO REMOVE OIL FROM THE BUDGET: A BOLD REFORM PATH OR A GAMBLE THAT COULD UNDERMINE IRAQ’S FINANCIAL STABILITY?
CALLS TO REMOVE OIL FROM THE BUDGET: A BOLD REFORM PATH OR A GAMBLE THAT COULD UNDERMINE IRAQ’S FINANCIAL STABILITY?
The phrase “oil belongs to the people” has been transformed from a constitutional text that is supposed to establish economic justice and sustainable development, into a slogan that is invoked during crises without actually being reflected in the structure of the Iraqi economy.
After decades of almost complete dependence on oil revenues, questions are mounting about the viability of this model, especially in light of the disruption of productive sectors, the decline of agriculture and industry, and the continued fragility of the budget in the face of fluctuations in oil prices.
As the next year and the upcoming budget discussions approach, the debate resurfaces regarding the meaning of public ownership of oil, the limits of its use, and the possibility of moving towards a diversified economy that reduces dependence on a single resource that has proven to be as much a source of danger as a source of funding.
Experts believe that continuing to link the general budget to oil revenues deepens the structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy and keeps the state hostage to the fluctuations of global markets. They warn that this approach has contributed to weakening the productive sectors, especially industry and agriculture, and has transformed the economy into a rentier model that lacks sustainability. The absence of a clear economic identity and the fluctuation of financial policies have contributed to the mismanagement of public capital, which calls for a review of the philosophy of preparing future budgets and a move towards diversifying sources of income and strengthening non-oil revenues to ensure long-term financial stability.
For his part, economist Abdul Rahman Al-Sheikhli explained that the phrase “oil is the property of the people” in the Iraqi constitution does not mean total dependence on oil revenues to finance the general budget, but rather indicates the people’s ownership of this wealth and the need to manage it in a way that achieves economic sustainability and preserves the rights of future generations.
Sheikhly told Iraq Observer that “the monarchical governments in Iraq did not include oil revenues in the general budget, but rather allocated them for emergencies,” emphasizing that “this approach was more disciplined compared to the financial policies adopted at present.” He added that “Articles 111 and 11 of the Iraqi Constitution clearly stipulate that oil belongs to the people, which means that the general budget must be directed towards relying on non-oil revenues, and oil should not be the primary source for covering operational expenses.”
Al-Sheikhli pointed out that “oil has turned into a liability to the Iraqi economy at the present stage, as a result of the almost complete dependence on it, which has caused a large number of production plants to stop, and the decline of the agricultural sector, on which Iraq was mainly dependent in securing its needs.”
He emphasized that “this dependence has created a fragile economy and stifled production, contributing to the weakening of genuine development opportunities,” calling for “the revitalization of the industrial and agricultural sectors as sustainable sources of national income.” Al-Shaykhli stressed “the necessity for next year’s budget to include a reduction in dependence on oil, limiting it to no more than 49 percent of total revenues, thus ensuring the diversification of income sources and mitigating the risks associated with oil price volatility.” Article (111) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq of the year (2005) in force states that “Oil and gas are the property of the Iraqi people in all regions and governorates.”
According to experts, this text is consistent with public international law, which considers natural resources to be the property of the people, not the property of parties or the authorities, and that the state is only a tool for management, distribution, and development.
This is what was emphasized by the resolutions of the United Nations, including its resolution No. (1803) of 14/12/1962 entitled “Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources”, which stressed the need to exercise the right of peoples and nations to permanent sovereignty over their wealth and natural resources in accordance with the interest of their national development and the welfare of the people of the state concerned.
JEFF: Iraqi Dinar Outlook 2026: Low Inflation, Fast Elections, UN Exit, and the Path to a Convertible Currency
Iraqi Dinar Outlook 2026: Low Inflation, Fast Elections, UN Exit, and the Path to a Convertible Currency
Big Picture: Why Iraq Is Not Zimbabwe
One of the most important clarifications Jeff makes is separating Iraq from hyperinflationary economies like Zimbabwe.
“Zimbabwe or some of these other ones have insanely high inflation. They are not going to be increasing the value of their currency. They can’t.”
The Key Difference: Inflation
Jeff highlights a core economic truth:
High inflation = no currency appreciation possible
Low inflation = room for value increase
Iraq’s situation is the opposite of failed currencies.
CBI Bragging Rights: Iraq’s Extremely Low Inflation
According to Jeff:
“Iraq’s inflation is extremely low. The Central Bank keeps bragging about that.”
Why inflation matters more than rumors:
Inflation is the primary requirement for raising a currency’s value
Low inflation preserves purchasing power
It signals monetary discipline
It attracts foreign investment
In simple terms:
👉 Low inflation gives the CBI permission to increase the rate.
Political Speed: Elections and Parliament in Record Time
Another major indicator Jeff emphasizes is speed.
“These elections are happening faster than they ever have… They completed their parliament in record time.”
Why speed matters:
Shows political coordination
Reduces uncertainty
Signals readiness for reform
Builds confidence with global partners
This is not the Iraq of delays and gridlock—it’s an Iraq moving with purpose.
The UN Exit: Iraq Declared Fully Sovereign
One of the most overlooked but powerful developments:
“The UN declared Iraq a sovereign state with the UN exiting Iraq. Not coincidental.”
Why this is massive:
Ends international oversight
Confirms full sovereignty
Transfers responsibility to Iraqi institutions
Unlocks independent economic authority
Jeff connects this directly to what comes next.
2026: A Brand-New International Beginning
Jeff frames 2026 as a turning point, not just another year.
“They declared Iraq being a sovereign state towards the end of 2025 when they’re transitioning to a brand new international beginning in 2026.”
What’s rolling out in 2026:
Long-awaited banking reforms
Comprehensive tax reforms
Massive new international trading systems
Expansion of global trade
A booming commercial environment
One Non-Negotiable Requirement: A Convertible Currency
Jeff makes this point very clear:
“All of that requires a convertible currency.”
Why convertibility is essential:
International trade cannot function without it
Banking reforms require currency transparency
Global investors demand liquidity
Trade settlements need exchange flexibility
No modern trading nation operates with a locked or artificially constrained currency.
What’s Being Hidden? The Timing Factor
Jeff hints that something critical may be unfolding quietly:
“There’s one thing in the midst of all this that’s being hidden from all of us…”
And then asks the question many are watching closely:
“When is Mark Savaya going to Iraq?”
For many observers, key personnel movements often coincide with final execution phases rather than announcements.
Q&A – Key Takeaways Explained Simply
Why can’t Iraq be compared to Zimbabwe?
Because Iraq has low inflation, while Zimbabwe had runaway inflation.
Why does low inflation matter so much?
It’s the main economic condition that allows a currency to rise in value.
Does UN sovereignty affect the dinar?
Yes. Sovereignty gives Iraq full control over its monetary and economic future.
Why is 2026 so important?
It marks the rollout of long-delayed banking, tax, and trade reforms.
Can Iraq launch global trade without a convertible currency?
No. Convertibility is mandatory.
Featured Snippet
Iraq’s extremely low inflation, record-speed elections, UN-declared sovereignty, and sweeping banking reforms point toward one unavoidable outcome: the need for a fully convertible currency as Iraq enters a new international phase in 2026.
Strategic Summary: Everything Is Lining Up
This is not speculation—it’s economic sequencing:
Low inflation ✅
Political stability ✅
UN exit & sovereignty ✅
Banking and tax reforms ✅
International trade expansion ✅
The final requirement remains obvious.
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Jeff
Zimbabwe or some of these other ones, have insanely high inflation.
They are not going to be increasing the value of their currency. They can't. It's general economics. Iraq's inflation is extremely low. The Central bank keeps bragging about that...We keep seeing that because the inflation is the key principle that allows them [to increase the rate].
These elections are happening faster than they ever have...They completed their parliament in record time...Everything is coming together correctly and fast, like in record time.
The UN declared Iraq a sovereign state with the UN exiting Iraq. Not coincidental. They're doing this. They declared Iraq being a sovereign state towards the end of the year '25 when they're transitioning to a brand new international beginning in 2026, rolling out banking reforms that have waited for eternity - banking reforms, tax reforms, brand new massive trading systems and launching their trade...booming.
All of that requires a convertible currency. There's one thing in the midst of all this that's being hidden from all of us...when is Mark Savaya going to Iraq?
THE SUDANESE MAN SPEAKS ABOUT A SECOND TERM, ARMS CONTROL, AND AMERICA’S DEALINGS WITH IRAN
THE SUDANESE MAN SPEAKS ABOUT A SECOND TERM, ARMS CONTROL, AND AMERICA’S DEALINGS WITH IRAN
Consider prime minister Mohammed Shia Al-SudaniOn Saturday, he stated that a second term is not a personal ambition but rather the completion of a project. He also pointed out that the agreement to restrict weapons to the state was not the result of a statement from a country or envoy, and revealed that he had advised the American side to deal respectfully with…Iran and to refrain from threats and intimidation.
He said Sudanese In an interview with Al Mayadeen Channel” The citizen expects the result of his participation in the elections to be a change in the level of services, the standard of living and the economy, the imposition of security and stability in the country and the strengthening of his pivotal role.”
He added, “The voter turnout is evidence of the level of satisfaction and confidence in the government’s executive performance, and these reasons motivated citizens to participate widely in the elections,” considering that “our foreign relations are based on self-interest.” Iraq” The Iraqi people are a priority for us, and the sovereignty of the country, its territorial integrity, and the safety of its people are non-negotiable; we will fight for them.”
Al-Sudani noted, “Our relationship with all our Arab brothers is based on a single, consistent standard, without any discrimination. We cherish our deep Arab ties, and our interests with them are commensurate with their engagement with us.” He added, “Our position towards our brothers in Iraq is unwavering.” Lebanon the support and assistance we provided at every stage is part of our duty and an appreciation for their resistance to the treacherous aggression.
He continued, “We have begun the process of opening an office in Lebanon to follow up on Iraq’s contribution to its reconstruction, and this reflects the will and desire of all Iraqis,” noting that “our relationship with Syria, it is ongoing based on a shared strategic interest, and we maintain communication. We have formed a bilateral security coordination committee, which is still operating.
He emphasized that “our relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran is built on solid foundations, and we share religious, cultural, and social commonalities, in addition to a stance…”Iran “We are with them in the war against ISIS,” he added, “I have not sensed any kind of dictates, interference, or influence from Iran in Iraq’s affairs, and our bilateral relations are on a positive path.”
Regarding relations with US Al-Sudani said, “It has a special status; it is a strategic partner of Iraq and contributed to the downfall of the dictatorial regime and helped us confront ISIS through International coalition. He added, “We worked on organizing the relationship with the United States, both in the security and economic spheres, given the companies and technology they possess, so that Iraq could benefit from their experience.”
He revealed prime minister US administration officials have announced their acceptance of holding a dialogue with the Iranian side in Baghdad especially during the visit of the American envoy Tom Barrack“To Syria and Iraq,” he added, “We advised the American side to deal respectfully with Iran and to refrain from threats and intimidation because negotiations require trust and cannot be conducted under military aggression. Iran has agreed to conduct serious negotiations without dictates or threats, based on trust, and this is a logical viewpoint.”
Regarding the next government, al-Sudani said, “The majority of the forces within the Coordination Framework are keen to form a strong government capable of facing future challenges.” He added, “We are still at a standstill, unable to resolve the selection of the prime minister. Therefore, we presented an initiative to break the deadlock, as a key bloc within the Coordination Framework.” He
also said, “The basis of our initiative is consensus on the selection of the prime minister, establishing clear criteria to facilitate the selection process and the appointment of the person tasked with forming the government. This individual must have the people’s trust, possess successful executive experience, and have a program to address the challenges.”
He also stated that “the agreement to restrict weapons to the state is not the result of a statement from a country, an envoy, or a request, but rather it is part of our government program and one of the upcoming entitlements. All national parties agree on addressing this issue, and within days our armed forces will take control of the Ain base.”Lion“The second term is entirely, and the second phase relates to the Silk Road base,” he stressed, adding that “the second term is not a personal ambition, but rather a readiness to take responsibility and complete a project we started.”
FRANK26 & OMAR: Iraqi Dinar Update: CBI Confirms New Currency Mechanism and Digital Push Ahead of Exchange Rate Shift
Iraq Boots-on-the-Ground Report: Major Monetary Signals from the CBI
As the Iraqi dinar (IQD) community watches closely, new boots-on-the-ground intelligence shared by Frank26 and OMAR reveals important developments directly from Iraq—this time confirmed on national television by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI).
These updates point to structural changes, not hype—exactly what many experts believe must happen before a meaningful exchange rate adjustment.
Political Stability: Sudani’s Approval Rating Strengthens Confidence
OMAR reports a crucial political signal often overlooked by international media:
“Saleh said be careful in what you hear on the news because Sudani's approval rate after the elections is over 64% of the public approval.”
Why this matters:
Strong public approval = political stability
Stability is essential for currency reform
Reduces risk for international investors
Despite negative headlines abroad, Iraq’s internal confidence appears much stronger than portrayed.
CBI CONFIRMATION: A New Currency Mechanism Is Coming
One of the most important revelations:
“The Central Bank of Iraq is rolling out a new currency mechanism by the end of this month.”
This statement was reportedly broadcast on Iraqi television, adding credibility and urgency.
Key points of the new mechanism:
Tightening dinar circulation
Reduction of currency supply by 5.5% in the last quarter
Focus on stability and durability
Part of a larger monetary reform plan
Reduced Dinar Supply: A Classic Pre-Revaluation Step
Reducing currency in circulation is a textbook move in monetary reform.
What does a 5.5% reduction signal?
Preparing the currency for higher value
Eliminating excess liquidity
Strengthening confidence in the IQD
Aligning with international banking standards
This is not random—it is intentional positioning.
No Rate Change… Yet
OMAR clarified an important detail:
“They’re not messing with the exchange rate itself.”
This confirms what many seasoned observers already know:
Exchange rate changes come last
Infrastructure and mechanisms come first
The groundwork must be complete before the flip
Digital & International: The Future of the Iraqi Dinar
Another major shift highlighted:
“They're pushing for a more digital approach… more international.”
Why digitalization matters:
Reduces corruption and black-market activity
Improves compliance with global systems
Enables faster cross-border transactions
Aligns Iraq with modern financial frameworks
This digital transition is widely seen as mandatory before international revaluation.
Frank26 Insight: Streamlining for a New Exchange Rate
Frank26 summarized the situation clearly:
“The monetary mechanism is streamlining everything that is required for a new exchange rate.”
This statement ties all elements together:
Political stability ✅
Reduced currency supply ✅
Digital infrastructure ✅
International alignment ✅
What’s missing?
👉 Only the final exchange rate announcement.
Q&A – Most Asked Questions Right Now
Is the CBI changing the exchange rate now?
No. They are preparing the system first.
Why reduce dinar circulation?
To strengthen the currency and prepare it for a higher valuation.
Is this confirmation real?
Yes, according to reports, it was aired on Iraqi television.
Does political approval matter for the RV?
Absolutely. Stability builds international confidence.
Is this bullish for the IQD?
Many believe these are pre-RV indicators.
Featured Snippet
The Central Bank of Iraq has confirmed a new currency mechanism, reduced dinar circulation by 5.5%, and accelerated digital transformation—steps widely seen as prerequisites for a future exchange rate change.
Why This Update Is Bigger Than It Sounds
This is not speculation.
This is monetary engineering.
Iraq is:
Cleaning up the dinar
Locking down supply
Digitizing its system
Preparing for international integration
Historically, this phase always comes right before value adjustment.
Official Platforms – Stay Informed
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Frank26
[Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]
OMAR: Saleh said be careful in what you hear on the news because Sudani's approval rate after the elections is over 64% of the people public approval.
OMAR: The CBI put this out on the television. This is absolute...The Central Bank of Iraq is rolling out a new currency mechanism by the end of this month. They're tightening up the circulation of the dinar, cutting it down by about 5.5% this last quarter to make things a bit more sturdier. It's all part of the bigger plan to stabilize the currency. They're not messing with the exchange rate itself. They're pushing for a more digital approach...more international...
FRANK: Yes, the monetary mechanism is streamlining everything that is required for a new exchange rate.
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