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Sunday, December 28, 2025
MY PERSPECTIVE ON THE DINAR AND ECONOMIC REFORM, BASED ON WHAT DR. NABIL AL-MARSOUMI WROTE ABOUT THEM
MY PERSPECTIVE ON THE DINAR AND ECONOMIC REFORM, BASED ON WHAT DR. NABIL AL-MARSOUMI WROTE ABOUT THEM
By Dr. Shawwan Zangana
12.14.25
With all due respect to you, my dear professor Dr. Nabil Al-Marsoumi, and with all due appreciation for your knowledge and expertise, from which I have always benefited, I hope you will allow me to present the following points to you, in response and commentary on what you wrote about economic reform a few days ago, as follows:
- The “White Paper” was never a reform paper, and it never will be. In it, the wrong measures and government corruption were imposed on the people, as they were exposed to inflation due to the reduction in the exchange rate of the dinar, and stagnation prevailed in the markets due to the contradictions in the economic measures, not to mention the exploitation of the economic crises by those in power and their entourages to make profits and accelerate the wheel of smuggling.
2- I agree with you, my dear professor, that the economic crises in developing countries are caused by errors in macroeconomic policies, and I also agree with you on the necessity of cooperating with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. However, I do not agree with you, nor with the pillars of the Iraqi government that approved the “White Paper” prepared by the World Bank, with nominal Iraqi participation, regarding many of the items and measures contained in the ill-fated White Paper.
I do not agree with placing the plans to address the Iraqi economic crises under the authority of the World Bank or others. Rather, I call for the solutions to be purely Iraqi, in cooperation with international financial institutions, as Iraq is full of good economic personnel, both inside and outside the government.
3- In my view, seeking to reduce the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar is an economic crime that should only be resorted to in extreme emergency situations, when other means are exhausted. Iraq has multiple available means to address its economic crises, such as borrowing, rationalizing the budget, reforming food rations and social welfare, regulating salaries, limiting appointments, and eliminating underemployment, among others. These measures will be painful, as you mentioned, but they are certainly better than the effects of stagflation, which will burden the rich before the poor.
4- Floating the Iraqi dinar, in the current state of the Iraqi economy, contradicts the most basic rules of economics, not to mention its contradiction with reason and logic. Economically, floating occurs in a balanced free market where there is a real opportunity to achieve a fair exchange rate. This is impossible to achieve in the current Iraqi economy, as the only party that possesses dollars and hard currencies is the Central Bank of Iraq. As for the Iraqi market, it obtains hard currencies from the Central Bank, because Iraq is an importing country and not an exporting one, and most traders do not possess hard currency because they do not export, but rather they depend on the Central Bank to provide foreign currency liquidity. Consequently, there is no balanced market in which hard currency is available to everyone, and it is a market governed by what the Central Bank provides of hard currency, so competition becomes impossible, and achieving a fair exchange rate becomes impossible.
5- Promoting the idea of floating the dinar and reducing its exchange rate in the markets and among the general public is extremely dangerous. It is a preemptive move for possible future measures that may not happen, and if they do happen, they may not be soon. Occupying the markets with this type of idea presented as a solution is harmful and not beneficial. Therefore, I recommend staying away from it and leaving the idea of floating the dinar and reducing its exchange rate to the next government.
6- The economic reform process will be harsh and costly for the poor and those with limited and middle incomes, as you mentioned. The government must strive to alleviate the burden of this harshness and cost by improving economic, security, and social performance, and by formulating a national reform paper, with the participation of the concerned parties, the government, society, and markets, and with the assistance of local, international, and UN financial institutions.
6- Economic reform measures will not be effective unless they are accompanied by good intentions from those who take them. Corruption and mismanagement have brought Iraq to this state, and its continuation means the inevitable failure of reform measures. I think the time has come for the marginalized class of the national elite and entrepreneurs in the markets to take their place in the constructive and effective contribution to managing the course of the economy in Iraq, whether those in power accept it or not.
Jeff: Why Budget Cycles Matter in Iran and Iraq’s Currency Reform
Fiscal Timelines Reveal the Bigger Monetary Strategy
In a recent analysis, Jeff highlighted an important article titled “Iranian government rolling out nationwide currency denomination”, drawing attention not only to what Iran is doing—but when and why it is doing it.
The timing, Jeff explains, is everything.
Iran’s 4-Zero Currency Removal Explained
According to the article:
“Iran's government will begin the process of removing 4-zeros from the currency since the next Iranian year from March 21, 2026 to March 20, 2027.”
At first glance, the long timeline may seem unusual—but Jeff makes it clear that this timing is not random.
Why This Period? The Budget Cycle
Jeff points out a critical detail often overlooked:
Iran’s budget period (fiscal year) runs from:
March 21st to March 20th of the following year
This means Iran’s currency reform is:
Directly tied to its fiscal calendar
Designed to roll out alongside national budgeting
Structured to align monetary reform with accounting, spending, and revenue
“I pulled this straight off the internet.” — Jeff
Iraq’s Fiscal Year: A Different Clock, Same Strategy
Jeff then connects this directly to Iraq.
Unlike Iran:
Iraq’s fiscal year runs from January 1st to December 31st
This difference is crucial.
According to Jeff:
The old domestic Iraq ends at the close of the current fiscal year
A new international Iraq begins with the new budget cycle in January
“Everything revolves around a budget period.”
Domestic vs International Iraq
Jeff’s perspective frames Iraq’s transition as a budget-driven evolution:
Ending the Old Domestic Iraq
Legacy systems
Internal-only financial structures
Limited global integration
Beginning the New International Iraq
Budget-aligned reforms
International engagement
Modernized monetary and fiscal systems
This shift is expected to occur around January, when Iraq’s new fiscal year begins.
Regional Pattern: Budget-Based Currency Reform
When viewed together:
Iran aligns currency reform with its March-to-March fiscal year
Iraq aligns reform with its January-to-December fiscal year
This reinforces a broader regional pattern:
Major monetary changes are introduced at the start of budget cycles—not randomly mid-year.
Featured Snippet: Key Insight
Why is Iran removing 4 zeros from its currency during 2026–2027?
Because Iran’s fiscal year runs from March 21 to March 20, and major currency reforms are structured to align with national budget periods.
Google Discover Highlight
Jeff highlights a powerful pattern across the Middle East: currency reforms follow fiscal calendars. As Iran prepares a multi-year redenomination tied to its budget cycle, Iraq’s January-based fiscal year points to its own monetary transition aligning with the start of the new year.
Q&A Section
❓ Why does Iran’s currency reform take place over a year?
Because it aligns with Iran’s official fiscal year and budget execution period.
❓ What is Iraq’s fiscal year?
Iraq’s fiscal year runs from January 1st to December 31st.
❓ Why are budget periods important for currency reform?
Budgets determine accounting systems, pricing, salaries, contracts, and monetary implementation timing.
❓ What does Jeff mean by “international Iraq”?
A shift toward global financial integration aligned with a new fiscal and monetary framework.
Final Thoughts
Jeff’s analysis brings clarity to an often-misunderstood aspect of currency reform: timing is driven by budgets, not speculation.
Iran’s 4-zero removal and Iraq’s anticipated monetary evolution both follow a simple rule—everything begins with a fiscal year. As Iraq approaches January, attention naturally focuses on what a new budget cycle may bring.
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Jeff
Article: "Iranian government rolling out nationwide currency denomination"
Quote: "Iran's government will begin the process of removing 4-zeros from the currency since the next Iranian year from March 21, 2026 to March 20, 2027..."
Why this period?
It's their budget period...I pulled this straight off the internet. Iran's budget period/ fiscal year goes from March 21st to March 20th of the following year...Iraq's fiscal year goes from January 1st to December 31st.
The old domestic Iraq is ending at the end of this year of '25. The new international Iraq will begin in January around the budget period...Everything revolves around a budget period.
IRAQ NEWS ANALYSIS: Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk
Dollar Rise, Salary Cuts, and Food Rations at Risk
Iraq Begins Implementing the White Paper Reforms
Iraq has officially entered a new phase of economic reform. According to economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi, the country has already begun implementing the “White Paper”, an economic reform framework supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
These reforms are designed to manage economic crises in developing countries—but they come with significant social costs, particularly for the poor and middle class.
Important Clarification on Exchange Rate Language (Mnt Goat)
Before diving deeper, Mnt Goat provides a crucial clarification often misunderstood in Iraqi economic reporting:
When articles mention “raising the rate” of the dinar, they usually mean:
Raising the sanctioned exchange rate (e.g., from 1320 to 1440)
This is actually a devaluation
When articles mention “reducing the rate”, they usually mean:
Lowering the sanctioned rate (e.g., from 1320 to 1166)
This represents a revaluation
This distinction is essential to correctly understand Iraq’s monetary policy discussions.
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi Explains the White Paper
On Friday, December 12, 2025, Al-Marsoumi discussed the repercussions of the White Paper in a blog post titled:
“The First Option for Economic Reform (The White Paper)”
He explained that the IMF and World Bank believe economic crises in developing countries stem from macroeconomic policy failures , and that correcting these failures requires fundamental policy changes, even at the expense of social welfare programs.
Core IMF Reform Package Explained
According to Al-Marsoumi, the IMF-backed reform package includes:
Reducing the exchange rate of the national currency and then floating it
Raising interest rates and imposing credit ceilings
Gradually reducing government subsidies
Cutting public spending on goods and services
Reducing the salary budget and limiting government hiring
Restructuring and privatizing loss-making public sector institutions
Reducing social transfer spending, including food subsidies
Raising energy prices to global levels
Raising taxes, expanding the tax base, and reducing exemptions
Liberalizing prices and trade
Iraq Began Implementing the White Paper in 2020
Al-Marsoumi notes that Iraq began implementing these reforms in 2020, following:
The collapse of oil prices
The global economic shutdown due to COVID-19
Under the White Paper, Iraq committed to several major actions.
Key Measures Already Underway in Iraq
🔹 Salary and Wage Reductions
Reduce the wage and salary bill from 25% of GDP to 12.5% within three years
Halt new government hiring and replacement
🔹 Tax Expansion
Apply income tax to:
Allowances
Bonuses
Incentives and benefits
🔹 Subsidy Cuts and Ration Card Changes
Reduce government support from 13% of GDP to 5%
Limit ration cards to those under social protection programs
Resulting in:
Higher fuel prices
Higher electricity prices
Higher food prices
Increased inflation
🔹 Dollar Exchange Rate Increase
Raise the dollar exchange rate against the dinar by 23%
This move had a negative impact on:
Low-income citizens
The middle class
Social Cost of the White Paper
Al-Marsoumi concludes with a clear warning:
“Implementing the White Paper reforms entails a heavy social cost borne by the poor and those with limited income.”
He also indicates that this reality may require exploring alternative national reform options that better balance economic stability with social protection.
Featured Snippet: Key Insight
What is the White Paper reform in Iraq?
The White Paper is an IMF-backed economic reform program aimed at restructuring Iraq’s economy through subsidy cuts, salary reductions, tax increases, and exchange rate adjustments.
Google Discover Highlight
Iraq has officially begun implementing IMF-backed White Paper reforms. While aimed at stabilizing the economy, economists warn the measures carry significant social costs, including higher prices, salary constraints, and reduced subsidies.
Q&A Section
❓ What is Iraq’s White Paper?
An economic reform plan supported by the IMF and World Bank to address structural weaknesses in Iraq’s economy.
❓ Why did the dollar rise against the dinar?
As part of IMF-backed reforms, Iraq raised the sanctioned exchange rate, effectively devaluing the dinar.
❓ Who is most affected by these reforms?
According to economists, the poor and middle class bear the greatest burden.
❓ Are food rations being canceled?
Ration cards are being reduced and limited to social protection recipients, leading to higher food costs.
Final Thoughts
The implementation of Iraq’s White Paper marks a turning point in economic policy. While designed to stabilize finances and satisfy international institutions, the reforms come with real and immediate social consequences.
As economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi notes, the challenge now lies in balancing economic reform with social justice, a task that may require new national solutions beyond the current framework.
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Mike Bara: Boxing Day Intel and the January 1st Dinar Narrative
Rumors, Banking Signals, and Political Timing in Iraq
During the Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update, Mike Bara outlined a series of reports and signals that continue to fuel speculation around a potential January 1st public announcement related to the Iraqi dinar.
While clearly categorized as intel and rumor, the convergence of political timing, banking activity, and ongoing chatter has kept attention focused on the opening days of the new year.
Let’s examine the key points and why they matter.
January 1st: A Date Repeated Across Sources
According to Mike Bara, certain sources have been pointing to January 1st as a possible public RV-related announcement date for more than a month.
Additional commentary from CIA_Tony and Bruce suggests:
A potential development after 5:30 PM Eastern
Heightened expectations as the year comes to a close
Although unconfirmed, the consistency of this date appearing across multiple discussions continues to attract attention.
Political Developments: Government Formation Matters
One of the most important elements highlighted is Iraq’s government formation.
Mike Bara notes:
Iraq is expected to form a new government
Sudani is expected to be appointed as Prime Minister
This is anticipated to occur on Monday, the 29th
This step is viewed as critical because political stability is often considered a prerequisite for major monetary announcements.
“This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.”
Banking Signals: Interest-Free Credit Cards
Another key detail involves Iraq’s banking system.
According to the update:
Iraq is expected to begin issuing interest-free credit cards on January 1
This would represent a significant modernization of consumer banking
Mike Bara suggests that:
Such a move is much easier with a revalued or adjusted currency
It supports the idea that financial infrastructure is being prepared for change
Bank Stories and Implementation Dates
Additional banking-related reports referenced in the update indicate:
January 1st as a potential announcement date
January 4th as a possible implementation date
While these dates remain speculative, the separation between announcement and implementation aligns with how monetary changes are often rolled out.
Bond Holders: Complete Silence
One notable point emphasized by Mike Bara is the lack of noise from bond holders.
“Bond holders are silent.”
In past cycles, bond-related chatter often preceded major developments. The current silence is being interpreted by some as:
A sign that processes are already underway
Or that confidentiality restrictions are in place
Featured Snippet: Key Summary
What is Mike Bara saying about January 1 and the Iraqi dinar?
Mike Bara reports that multiple intel sources, bank stories, and political developments are pointing to January 1 as a possible public announcement date, with implementation rumors extending into early January.
Google Discover Highlight
Boxing Day intel has reignited discussion around Iraq’s currency future. With government formation, banking upgrades, and repeated January 1 references, speculation continues to build as the new year approaches.
Q&A Section
❓ Is January 1 confirmed for an Iraqi dinar RV?
No. The information shared by Mike Bara is categorized as intel and rumor, not official confirmation.
❓ Why is government formation important?
A seated government and confirmed Prime Minister are often required before major financial or monetary announcements.
❓ Why are interest-free credit cards significant?
They signal banking reform and modernization, which may be easier to implement under a stronger or adjusted currency framework.
❓ What does bond holder silence mean?
Some interpret it as a sign of confidentiality or that processes are already in motion, though no official explanation exists.
Final Thoughts
Mike Bara’s Boxing Day update does not offer guarantees—but it does highlight a convergence of timing, political readiness, and banking preparation that many find noteworthy.
As always, until official announcements are made, these developments remain speculative. However, the repetition of January 1st across multiple narratives ensures that the date will remain under close watch.
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MIKE BARA
Boxing Day Intel/Rumor Mill Update:
Certain sources have been saying Jan 1 Dinar public RV announcement for more than a month.
CIA_Tony and Bruce say today after 5:30 PM eastern is possible.
Iraq should form their new government and appoint Sudani as PM on Monday, the 29th. This clears the way for a public rate announcement on Jan 1.
Iraq will begin issuing interest free credit cards on January 1. This is much easier with a revalued currency.
Bank stories point to Jan 1 as an announcement date, January 4th as implementation date.
Bond holders are silent.
That's it.
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